We are a commune of inquiring, skeptical, politically centrist, capitalist, anglophile, traditionalist New England Yankee humans, humanoids, and animals with many interests beyond and above politics. Each of us has had a high-school education (or GED), but all had ADD so didn't pay attention very well, especially the dogs. Each one of us does "try my best to be just like I am," and none of us enjoys working for others, including for Maggie, from whom we receive neither a nickel nor a dime. Freedom from nags, cranks, government, do-gooders, control-freaks and idiots is all that we ask for.
By the end of March, most of the United States had been locked down. Tens of millions of Americans have lost their jobs. More than $6 trillion has been spent to save society from complete collapse. Relentless warnings have whipped the populace into frenzies of fear. All of this to contain a disease that, as far as we can tell at this point, is not significantly more fatal than the flu. Moreover, given how rapidly the coronavirus spreads, it seems likely that the radical and untested method of lockdown does little to control it.
In other words, the science increasingly shows that the measures we have taken in the last few weeks have been both harmful—with freedoms lost, money spent, livelihoods destroyed—and pointless.
Maybe not more fatal, but more infectious. It is unavoidable. Like death and taxes.
Debate is good. New facts are useful too. As I understand it, though, lockdowns are not so much designed to prevent death as they were to slow the rate of serious infection - to extend the epidemic at a less intense rate.
We have a rather soft-quarantine going on here. Soft quarantine meaning pushing the limits of what is allowed. Not by choice, but because there are few places to go outdoors other than road hikes with friends, Costco, market, drug store. An hour of morning calisthenics in the living room before breakfast, of course, with adult music, is a good way to begin a day.
Rainy day with the goal of emptying two closets. So much crap that will never be used, and that Good Will would never want. (They are fussy about your old stuff - nobody wants it.)
I have a prosperous friend who added a 35X35' laundry room on the second floor when his four kids were young, above a new kitchen addition. Two washers, two driers, linen/blanket shelves on all the walls, and dedicated rolling racks all around: one for ski gear, one for hunting gear, one for bad-weather gear, etc. etc.
I praised him for this, but was green with envy.
Mrs. B and I are cleaning out two closets today. It feels good. Much of it is good stuff, but nobody would want it. The garbage man will need a $20 tip on Tues to get rid of it all.
"When in doubt, throw it out." The Collier Brothers never learned that. I have learned, over time, that most of our stuff is dumpster fodder.
What to do? Surfing in the intertube is a complete waste of life, like counting flowers on the wall. Reading Maggie's doesn't count.
It is not exactly a disease of the immune system, but some supposedly strong immune systems over-react, as I posted yesterday. Cytokine Storm.
It continues to be apparent that the elderly, overweight, or pre-diabetic/diabetic seem to be most likely to face death with this virus. Those people ought to be protected as best we can, but that's difficult. Most people weather it just fine, if miserable for a while. The luckiest ones (most people) get the sniffles and a headache for a few days and then feel fine.
Losing someone you love, particularly a family member, is painful. I can't say I know, nobody in my closest circle of friends or family has died. My brother-in-law died 22 years ago, and while we were friendly I wouldn't say we were close. He was family and that was painful enough. For my in-laws it was much worse, but I was more observer and shoulder to cry on.
I received a message from a fraternity brother on Sunday night that my former roommate (also a fraternity brother) had lost his younger (real) brother in a tragic late night car accident on Saturday. I happen to be friendly with my former roommate's older (real) brother through work, and I was friendly with the deceased as well, though only from a distance. My wife knows my former roommate well, as we played beach volleyball for a summer the year she and I started dating, and we've gone to the Preakness every year as part of a large group.
Mrs. Bulldog, having gone through this experience of family loss, insisted I set up a call with all our fraternity brothers as soon as possible. I wasn't sure this was wise. She was adamant. So I checked with my roommate's older brother (who, obviously, was also hurting) to express my condolences and see if this was a good decision. We are all separated by many miles and the lockdown will prevent any of us traveling for a funeral. His reaction was rapid, emphatically positive, and it didn't take much insistence on my part to assure he join.
For 2 hours Tuesday night we videoconferenced with 8 old college buddies, 1 close friend, and 1 older brother. 10 people just sharing experiences. Mostly, however, my former roommate and his brother were expressing grief, sharing their fondest memories, how they will be there for their niece, and all the thoughts and feelings that pass through peoples' minds at moment like this. The rest of us listened, shared some smiles, casual observations, a joke or two where it was fitting, and it felt good to just soak in their memories and feelings. It may be hard for me to empathize, never having lost anyone very close. But I can sympathize and provide some consolation.
As skeptical as I was, I hoped it would be cathartic and meaningful. It seems to have done some good. The older brother sent me a note this morning of an old Jewish saying that grief shared is grief halved. He is a lay minister, and we began to share our thoughts on the nature of God. We concluded a videoconference may not be an optimal setting, yet the appearance of everybody on that call was evidence of God and God's love.
There is a line in The Big Chill: "a long time ago we knew each other for a short period of time; you don't know anything about me. It was easy back then. No one had a cushier berth than we did. It's not surprising our friendship could survive that. It's only out there in the real world that it gets tough." As I contemplate this movie quote, I realized something. If it wasn't for technology, this quote may have described my relationship with these fellows perfectly. I doubt I would be as close with some of them as I have become. I reconnected with many as a result of the internet. The internet provides a source of communion.
We knew each other well for 2-4 years 37 years ago. Some of us fell off the map for many years. Others maintained relationships. In many cases we've had to renew old friendships. Even now, sometimes, we struggle to maintain these connections. Technology has helped us avoid the loss that comes from no longer living together with few responsibilities. It has, now, helped us lean on each other in times of need and sorrow. It has provided great benefit at a very unusual and difficult period in everybody's life.
The conference ended with an exchange that summed up how useful the videoconference was in restoring humor and good feeling. My former roommate: "Steve, it's been a while, we need to catch up some. I know when we do, it will be like yesterday."
Steve: "No, not like yesterday. Yesterday was a crappy day. We'll make it like the day before yesterday. That was a pretty good day."
It might very well turn out that way. I tend to feel now that lockdown was extreme, but good hygiene and masks would have been sufficient especially in hot spots.
That infamous explanation from a Vietnam War incident comes to mind as I read and listen to the debates about lockdowns and shutdowns.
I don't know what to believe anymore. Everybody with an opinion seems to be viewing the situation through their own particular lens, or filter as Scott would say. Of course, that's normal for everything all the time, but everything is exaggerated now to the point that balanced wisdom seems to have left the room. I guess that's normal too.
"When in danger or in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout."
I understand that Covid is not the seasonal flu. I also understand that it is neither polio nor the 1918 flu, nor, God forbid, the Black Plague. I understand that it seems to be a highly infectious virus with the power to cut people down and stress medical care in some areas (although less so much right now). I understand that this SARS Covid will be around forever, like all viruses. No escape, ever. Even vaccines are not 100% and it could be 12 months before we have them.
Let's discuss in the comments, in a calm, civil and respectful way. Later, I'll take you on a nice airplane ride.
I'll just add that one thing that has appalled me — in the comments here, on social media, and well, everywhere — is that so many people dealing with a situation full of uncertainty and unreliable data are so dead-certain of their positions and so abusive of people who disagree. And that’s certainly true of both sides in this debate.
It is “unconscionable” that Rikers Island inmates who were released due to coronavirus concerns are committing new crimes, Mayor Bill de Blasio said Monday.
This situation is intolerable. It cannot go on. It must not go on. It's getting to the point where it must not be allowed to go on. Infer from that what you will. That said, my fear is that we have crossed a Rubicon, insofar as the Left now sees how easy it is to grab total control. Had any other Republican from the 2016 field been President, I think this would have been lights out for America. That said, Trump will not be President forever, despite the Left's insane fever dreams to the contrary. This situation, though it may not seem so right now, still is only temporary and we'll come out of it. But long term, unless the Democrat-Media Complex, the unelected, unaccountable Deep State bureaucracy and the brainwashing mills of academia are somehow brought to heel, we are not going to be voting our way out of the inevitable showdown.
LET ME TRANSLATE THIS FOR LEFTISTS AND THOSE ON THE RIGHT WHO MIGHT HAVE FORGOTTEN. MONEY IS NOT JUST MONEY. NONE OF US IS PILING MONEY IN TO SWIM IN, LIKE UNCLE SCROOGE. MONEY IS LIFE. YOU TRADE YOUR LIFE FOR MONEY WITH WHICH YOU BUY THINGS TO SUSTAIN AND ENHANCE THAT LIFE. THIS IS GOING TO DESTROY LIVES. IS ALREADY DESTROYING LIVES. AND IT WILL COST US LIVES: IN POVERTY, DESPAIR AND OUTRIGHT SUICIDE
Bulldog's post earlier today suggests what many of us have imagined but had no hard data about: this corona virus may be about as lethal as seasonal influenza. That means it kills 0.1 to 0.15% of infected people and, in this case, mostly frail and elderly.
That would make it comparable to the H1N1 virus pandemic of 2009 which had little media or political hysteria.
Read the post, and listen. It's a random sample from California, but it makes sense to me because it gives us an inkling of a denominator. No denominator, no data. More probably similar data will be trickling in over the next weeks. Many people have had this bug and barely noticed it, much less got tested for it.
If the world has hysterically overreacted to this germ for lack of data (thanks a lot, China) - what then?
Since I am always a skeptic, I was always skeptical about the hysteria around me. Skepticism is my default setting, and it usually works out.
It is not an exclusive club. Funny how people enjoy having things to hate. As they say, haters gotta hate. Hatred is recreational for people, or at least for some people.
Feel free to explain the psychology of that.
Speaking of clubs, Trump was one of the first guys to make an exclusive club in Florida open to Jews and blacks.
My world, like all of yours probably, shrank dramatically 36 days ago. It shrank even more 2 weeks after that when I tested positive for Covid. I'm now a full 10 days since my last symptoms, but I'm not healthy yet, for a variety of reasons. I'd say I'm 95%. So let's pick through what's been going on.
To begin with, there's 'reinfection' taking place, although at very low levels. I'm skeptical of these stories. My guess is these are relapses. I almost experienced a relapse, as did other people I know, when I thought I was healthy enough to rake leaves for one hour. ONE HOUR. That was 4 days after the last symptoms. Nope. Wound up in bed the whole next day. Another person (who had scolded me telling me to be more careful) thought it wise to try and cut his lawn the day after I tried to rake. 6 days out, he wound up in bed for a day after only pushing the mower for 10 minutes. Still another, crazier, friend went for a 3 mile run a week after. He finished a mile and had to struggle to walk home, spending 2 days in bed. My feeling is people recover, feel good, try to do too much, and relapse. Since my raking adventure, I've only gone on walks. None longer than an hour, once a day. I'm still winded, but feeling stronger. As the linked article points out, "For now, the most likely explanation of why people are retesting positive seems to be that the test is picking up remnants of the virus." I'm sure if I was tested again, I'd likely be positive.
So I'm taking it easy, not pushing it. I'll try to push a little a week from now, when I'll (hopefully) feel much better. I've regained 3 of the 8 pounds I lost, so my appetite is back, and that was likely water weight, due to how dehydrated I was.
At this point, I have learned quite a bit more about the nature of what I had. I'm still not overwhelmed by its dangers. I know 10 people who tested positive. I know 10 more who definitely had it, but their doctors told them not to get tested because 'tests are for those in real need'. I have a friend at FEMA, instrumental in doing work in NYC, who told me the scare stories are just scare stories. They saw what was really going on, handling resource procurement and (now) distribution to other states. I know people who lost relatives, and we do believe (as we found out today) a relative who was in a home may have contracted it and died. So I have not said (nor would I say) this is not a dangerous virus. Certainly it requires an abundance of caution and respect. I don't believe in 'solutions' only trade offs, when politics is involved. You have to hurt someone to help someone with a political solution. It is inevitable. As a result, I believe this 'solution' was overkill of the worst kind. The trade offs are starting to be apparent...and will become more stark as they extend this.
For three years, the left has been peddling the story that the Russians interfered in the 2016 election in collaboration with the Trump campaign, with the ridiculous Steele Dossier cited as the proof.Now, the Party Line has shifted.The Russians still did it, says the new line, possibly working with the Clinton campaign, only they fed disinformation to the gullible...
The opening up of work and life is not a black and white choice between health and wealth. If it were, that would be an easy choice. We're not talking about wealth here. We're talking about a functional life, working, being useful and social, paying bills, not losing shelter, staying solvent.
This Chinese virus is not ever going away. It's here to stay like all viruses, and many if not most people will be exposed to it before 2021. However, viruses tend to run rapidly through a population over about two months and then just stick around more quietly forever, waiting for opportunity. Some people will get sick and die, regardless.
The trick now is how to balance illness and death risks with destroyed lives, careers, futures, families, and businesses. I still feel that the lockdowns and stay at home programs were extreme responses, but I understand that they were issued in the absence of data and in an atmosphere of panic (eg, 2 million Americans dead!). Lockdowns do not really save lives, and that is not what they are for anyway.
The Trump administration's plan makes good sense to me, with calm guidelines but leaving local decisions local without a one-size-fits-all for this giant country. After all, the federal officials and world experts weren't omniscient, were they? They never are. Nobody is.
I do appreciate that Dr. Fauci now says I can go back onto Tinder, but where will I go to meet that special girl in person? Maybe for a 6-foot distanced walk up and down 5th Ave...with masks? That would be a memorable way to meet your true love, masked and anonymous. It might work.
One question for readers: Do those with secure cash flows have different ideas from those who do not?
Whether people return to work and restart the economy in time to prevent a depression depends not entirely on what President Trump or, in California, Gov. Newsom decide.
It ultimately hinges on whether the people who have been shut in their homes for a month listening to mostly doomsday modeling (e.g., the March 19 governor’s warning that without his draconian measures 25.5 million Californians could be infected within 8 weeks [a number at fluctuating fatality percentages could imply that over 800,000 state residents will be dead mid-May]) and media sensationalism, decide what to do. The people, not the politicians, will decide.
Media sensationalism has scared the heck out of otherwise rational people, and scared the crap out of those who are fearful people anyway
PREHISTORIC SAHARA FILLED WITH FEROCIOUS PREDATORS
Ants Can Do
My world, like all of yours probably, shrank dramatically 36 days ago. It shrank even more 2 weeks after that when I tested positive for Covid. I'm now a full 10 days since my last symptoms, but I'm not healthy yet, for a variety of reasons. I'd say I'm 95%. So let's pick through what's been going on.