My world, like all of yours probably, shrank dramatically 36 days ago. It shrank even more 2 weeks after that when I tested positive for Covid. I'm now a full 10 days since my last symptoms, but I'm not healthy yet, for a variety of reasons. I'd say I'm 95%. So let's pick through what's been going on.
To begin with, there's 'reinfection' taking place, although at very low levels. I'm skeptical of these stories. My guess is these are relapses. I almost experienced a relapse, as did other people I know, when I thought I was healthy enough to rake leaves for one hour. ONE HOUR. That was 4 days after the last symptoms. Nope. Wound up in bed the whole next day. Another person (who had scolded me telling me to be more careful) thought it wise to try and cut his lawn the day after I tried to rake. 6 days out, he wound up in bed for a day after only pushing the mower for 10 minutes. Still another, crazier, friend went for a 3 mile run a week after. He finished a mile and had to struggle to walk home, spending 2 days in bed. My feeling is people recover, feel good, try to do too much, and relapse. Since my raking adventure, I've only gone on walks. None longer than an hour, once a day. I'm still winded, but feeling stronger. As the linked article points out, "For now, the most likely explanation of why people are retesting positive seems to be that the test is picking up remnants of the virus." I'm sure if I was tested again, I'd likely be positive.
So I'm taking it easy, not pushing it. I'll try to push a little a week from now, when I'll (hopefully) feel much better. I've regained 3 of the 8 pounds I lost, so my appetite is back, and that was likely water weight, due to how dehydrated I was.
At this point, I have learned quite a bit more about the nature of what I had. I'm still not overwhelmed by its dangers. I know 10 people who tested positive. I know 10 more who definitely had it, but their doctors told them not to get tested because 'tests are for those in real need'. I have a friend at FEMA, instrumental in doing work in NYC, who told me the scare stories are just scare stories. They saw what was really going on, handling resource procurement and (now) distribution to other states. I know people who lost relatives, and we do believe (as we found out today) a relative who was in a home may have contracted it and died. So I have not said (nor would I say) this is not a dangerous virus. Certainly it requires an abundance of caution and respect. I don't believe in 'solutions' only trade offs, when politics is involved. You have to hurt someone to help someone with a political solution. It is inevitable. As a result, I believe this 'solution' was overkill of the worst kind. The trade offs are starting to be apparent...and will become more stark as they extend this.
I've slowly expanded my activities, at least socially. A friend called and asked if I wanted to do a 'social distancing bonfire'. Needing to get out, I said sure. See picture. 5 of us, all good friends, 2 of us having recovered from Covid, and spaced ourselves appropriately and enjoyed 4 hours of a nice bonfire and some beer. None of us, thankfully, has lost our jobs yet. One will in 2 months since his job is a government grant and these are not being renewed (for I think somewhat obvious reasons). But in the meantime, we're all busy and thankful we are still with an income.
One fellow is in reinsurance brokerage. I mentioned small firms without business interruption insurance would be suffering. He replied it wouldn't matter, all interruption insurance has a clause which exempts pandemics. However, he said Trump has stated he'd require it. If Trump does this, he said, expect markets to collapse and insurance companies to go under. As he pointed out 'there just isn't that much ready money available'.
This did get a bit more personal for me. My tenant of 10 years called and told us that her job was moving to Chicago. She has to be out May 15. This isn't income we need to survive, but it does mean whatever we earn will only cover bills. That's not a horror story, it's a lucky story. Still, there is no way of getting a tenant in before July or August. That's not insubstantial, but I'm not going to cry over it. Others have it worse. This just exemplifies how bad things are, or will be, for many others if re-opening does not occur soon.
A friend where I grew up and I have remained in contact over the years. A very rural area, my friend lost their job at a local university. There are concerns building fast in the region. While limited gig work is available, most people don't have the skills for that. I was informed that food banks are empty, there is no income for most families, and real hardships in these areas will start in the next two to three weeks. Hunger is not an issue now, but certainly will become one. Rents have been unpaid this month. Spousal abuse and child abuse are on the rise. A college friend, counselor to alcoholics, sadly said "there is no shortage of work in my industry" after I mentioned my liquor store stated business is up 60% year over year. I have avoided drinking, for the most part. On the other hand, I haven't been a big drinker since I decided to keep weight off 7 years ago. In this situation, I chose to simply not drink at all (within reason - I did have some beers at the bonfire).
Jacksonville opened beaches from 6-11 a.m. and 5-8 p.m. daily, with some restrictions including no sunbathing or lounging in chairs or on blankets. This is a peek at how poorly government manages things. What will happen with a 5 and 3 hour window? People will jam the beaches. Open them for the day, and you'll have people seeking low density periods. I'd wake up and walk at sunrise, as would a few others. But this is how government works - thinking they've 'fixed' a problem they create a new one (my in-laws live here and told me the beaches have been overloaded).
Re-opening is critical. It can be slow, it can be deliberate and it can be careful. An abundance of caution can be utilized. I still wear a mask and gloves when I go to a store, I will probably do so for 3-4 more weeks. We need to change how we approach this. I suspect, with new information, we will learn that by midsummer we can live our lives again.
A final note. I watched Cuomo's presser this morning. He spent 20 minutes excoriating Republicans and things he disagreed with that Republicans support. I'm not Republican, I don't really care. What stunned me was, only shortly after engaging in political diatribe, Cuomo stated that he was the 'conduit' for all things that worked well during this crisis because he 'didn't have a political agenda' nor 'should we have a political agenda with this'. Gee, I agree Andrew. Shame you don't know what that means. I simply don't know why people trust or listen to politicians.
I remain hopeful you are all well, that you remain healthy, that your work is still providing income, or your retirement accounts providing effective returns. I'm not sure many people have thought long and hard about this and what it means. They want to rely on 'experts' to tell them what to do. I'm pretty sure I mentioned this before, but I'm supporting herd immunity, but I won't support herd mentality. Live your lives well and safely, folks. Trust yourselves and your instincts. Adam Smith's invisible hand is still at work, it never goes away.
