Maggie's Farm

We are a commune of inquiring, skeptical, politically centrist, capitalist, anglophile, traditionalist New England Yankee humans, humanoids, and animals with many interests beyond and above politics. Each of us has had a high-school education (or GED), but all had ADD so didn't pay attention very well, especially the dogs. Each one of us does "try my best to be just like I am," and none of us enjoys working for others, including for Maggie, from whom we receive neither a nickel nor a dime. Freedom from nags, cranks, government, do-gooders, control-freaks and idiots is all that we ask for.

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Wednesday, April 22. 2020

Wednesday morning links

 If Half the Country's COVID Deaths Were in Montana, Would New York Shut Down?


Oktoberfest Cancelled For First Time Since WW2 As German Hop-Growers Warn Of "Beer Shortage"


 'Because JESUS and FREEDOM': Maine prof attacks quarantine protesters in expletive-laden rant


 Michael Moore Admits He Had No Idea Where the Juice To Power Electric Cars Came From


 New studies suggest huge undercount of coronavirus infections — but are they right?


 Republicans Were Right about Unemployment’s Perverse Incentives


 Here’s Why We Didn’t Have Coronavirus Testing In February


CDC screwed up 


 So much for entitled millennials – it’s billionaires such as Richard Branson who are begging for loans


 Advisers Warn Trump His Push To Reopen Economy Carries Political Risks


Duh - it's risk either way


Conrad Black:  Democrats Underestimate Trump at Their Own Peril. The president’s enemies have not figured out how cunning he is, because he doesn’t seem cunning—at first.


 Joe Biden Advisor Tries to Blame Republicans for Small Business Loan Money Running out, It Doesn’t Go Well


 Biden Attacks Trump Over His Response to the Wuhan Virus, But Gets Tripped Up by the Facts


 Dem Senators: GOP Small Business Aid Is ‘Political Stunt’


Newly Declassified Evidence: Russia Didn't Try to Help Elect Trump in 2016


Posted by Bird Dog in Hot News & Misc. Short Subjects at 06:43 | Comments (28) | Trackbacks (0)

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Got a note from the coordinator - starting to "reopen" the TMC this week, so will be back downtown next weekend. Noted that as of last night, fewer than 280 patients (C/19) across the entire TMC...
#1 anon a mouse on 2020-04-22 09:41 (Reply)
You keep quoting these anecdotes as if they are meaningful and prove something.
#1.1 Assistant Village Idiot on 2020-04-22 10:23 (Reply)
You are right -- they are nothing more than street level reality. what rubes! /s
#1.1.1 louie miller on 2020-04-22 12:00 (Reply)
They are isolated and out of context. The sort of anecdotes that NPR and the WaPo use to argue with. I am disappointed seeing them from conservatives.
#1.1.1.1 Assistant Village Idiot on 2020-04-23 07:13 (Reply)
AVI, please elaborate on the additional context necessary when one reports a single, factual, personal event, i.e., a communication from your employer. The context seems clear - few cases in our entire medical complex & therefore back to work. Should the poster explore the vagaries of regional differences, accuracies of the models, efficacy of HCQ/AZ, to challenge or validate the decision to return?

Also, please consider that such decisions may be isolated primarily because these small but important, hopeful steps do not conform to currently preferred memes and therefore are not reported. Or they may be mischaracterized as WaPo or NPR-like and dismissed out of hand as disappointing for a conservative to share.

Your posts are a regular, valuable part of MF, but you slipped into a note of veiled condescension when being "disappointed" in other's commentary.
#1.1.1.1.1 louie miller on 2020-04-23 09:44 (Reply)
anon a mouse has provided context in the past. He thinks the whole thing is mostly crap. Therefore, when I see that this is his evidence, what he is working from, I don't hesitate to undermine that as anecdotal, only mildly useful data.

The condescension is entirely his. He's really smart, seeing through all the fog that the rest of us are still lost in.
#1.1.1.1.1.1 Assistant Village Idiot on 2020-04-23 16:28 (Reply)
Two thoughts —

If Michael Moore had no idea where electric cars' power came from, it's only because he chose not to know. Pretty damning for a self-styled investigating documentary maker, but then he's really a Leftist agitprop maker, so lies are as natural as breathing (or in his case, eating).

Second, Conrad Black & Trump's cunning — all true, but strong contributing factors to the Left's "misunderstanding" of DJT are contempt for anyone not on the Left, a dominance of the media and its public narratives that is now 50+ years old, and a smug assumption of intellectual superiority that has no basis whatever in reality.

Nonetheless, nobody on the conservative side should relax for a moment.
#2 PubliusII on 2020-04-22 09:56 (Reply)
Faced with alternatives that all involve risks, President Trump isn't the kind of guy to suffer decision-paralysis.
#3 Texan99 on 2020-04-22 10:26 (Reply)
Montana Vs New York. That is a partly fair criticism, because the people in in the NYC metro area do think what happens there is more important than what happens in Montana, an ugly attitude long-remarked on. However, there are 20M in the metro area, only 1M in Montana, and NYC connects to the rest of the country far more than Montana does, so our relative focus on NYC isn't unjustified. A better analogy would be if 20 states of about a million each had this intensity of mortality, would we care as much as we do about NYC? Probably not quite, but it would be a lot closer, and yes, the country might shut down because of it. 20 states? Yeah, shutdown.

We did see a rural/urban split in Europe around Mad Cow disease, and it was treated pretty seriously by everyone. If there was a massive viral presence in Montana and 19 other states, we would certainly be cordoning them off and shutting out anyone who had had contact, wouldn't we? Again, I grant it wouldn't be quite equal. NYC does think it is special and works its way into making us think that too. But it wouldn't be as glaring as the article portrays.
#4 Assistant Village Idiot on 2020-04-22 10:34 (Reply)
NYC clearly needs to stay shut down a while longer. The danger is that too many decisions for the whole country get made by people who can't quite make real to themselves the fact that the whole country isn't like NYC.

The opposite isn't a problem: decision-makers in NYC or DC rarely over-react and deprive themselves of resources or liberty by imposing restrictions that might make sense to combat a condition specific to Montana. They would automatically say, "Let's try that in Montana, but hold off on making it universal"--if they noticed Montana's plight at all.
#4.1 Texan99 on 2020-04-22 10:40 (Reply)
It begs the question. Is Montana's "good luck" due to the shutdown? If it is it is going to prove to be pretty stupid to criticize the shutdown because "we" haven't gotten many people infected, yet. Or is Montana's "good luck" simply due to the fact that Covid-19 hasn't really gotten there yet? Either way those who are sitting in la la land will be sorely disappointed when the virus does finally affect Montana in a bigger way.
#4.2 OneGuy on 2020-04-22 11:01 (Reply)
Source: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/montana

23 days since projected peak in daily deaths
23 days since peak resource use on March 30, 2020

After May 1, 2020, relaxing social distancing may be possible with containment strategies that include testing, contact tracing, isolation, and limiting gathering size.
#4.2.1 Christopher B on 2020-04-22 14:28 (Reply)
It still begs the question. Do we think Montanians are immune? Lucky? Too tough to die? Of course not. For whatever reason they had very few visitors from outside who brought in the virus and thus very few cases. In effect the nationwide lockdown prevented the spread of the virus to podunk places and their stats look good because of that. Once the nation returns to normal Montana and every other out of the way place, city and state will get their share of cases and deaths. There is no magic in Montana
#4.2.1.1 Anon on 2020-04-22 18:50 (Reply)
I'll have to re-read your response to MT v. NY. It seems you've missed the point. To me the question is not so much about New Yorkers' attitudes but rather whether draconian measures meant to control urban level risks are appropriate in a low density, low incidence setting?'
Steps like contact tracing with appropriate measures and protection of at risk cohorts might be the better answer when the situation is so different.
#4.3 louie miller on 2020-04-22 12:58 (Reply)
Especially since NY so far is the only area whose hospital system has come close to collapse, with the possible exception of New Orleans.

Before the goalposts shifted abruptly, we all more or less recognized that we could not stop this virus from moving through the population eventually. Few argued that we could stop it long enough (18 months?) to get a vaccine or reliable treatment. The idea was, instead, that we needed to slow it just long enough to keep the hospitals/ICUs/ventilator supplies from being overwhelmed. It appears that the lockdown was more than adequate to prevent that specific fear.

The over-correction was expensive; it cost 25 million jobs. Now the question is, how far can we open back up without reintroducing an ICU crisis? The answer probably will be different in different regions.
#4.3.1 Texan99 on 2020-04-22 13:19 (Reply)
Maybe slight over-simplification, but: Mardi Gras and NY subways both have something in common. On the other hand, only one person can fit comfortably on a horse.

On a side note, does it seem at times that we are fighting similar yet different diseases?
#4.3.2 Aggie on 2020-04-22 15:05 (Reply)
25% of NY deaths (or 1/8 of the country's deaths) are from NY nursing homes and this stupid policy- https://nypost.com/2020/04/21/cuomo-coronavirus-nursing-home-policy-proves-tragic-goodwin/ How does that make you feel about risk and risk management vs opening the country back up? I think we can do better.
#4.4 Karen on 2020-04-22 13:48 (Reply)
Would be quicker, completely honest, and take up less reporting space if Michael Moore simply said, " I have no idea. "
#5 barnhill on 2020-04-22 11:03 (Reply)
"... about darn near anything. But that doesn't stop me from pretending that my beliefs are right and proper and by GOD you'd better understand that I'm much more moral and ethical that you are - even if I've got to lie to get my points across."
#5.1 JLawson on 2020-04-22 13:57 (Reply)
There is something interesting happening in the MF comments and in other blogs too. New names/commenters with strategic names are pushing a political agenda. Even though the names are different they all are saying identical things. Almost as though they are the same person or surrogates for the same agenda.
#6 Saul on 2020-04-22 11:14 (Reply)
Interesting. I had vaguely noticed that there were names I am unfamiliar with, but had not drawn any conclusions from that. Maybe I'm just slow on the uptake for that sort of thing.

I have been irritated at the general tenor of comments here the last two weeks, but I will now re-evaluate that. I will reset the clock to zero. Thanks.
#6.1 Assistant Village Idiot on 2020-04-22 20:28 (Reply)
Just spitball'n, but can we get a "concert to benefit laid off oilworkers" or some such in SE Texas?

(yeah, kidding. Sort of)
#7 anon a mouse on 2020-04-22 11:19 (Reply)
From a friendly Sooner State neighbor. I'm beginning to wonder if this oil crisis is much more serious than the coronavirus. I still haven't worried about getting it or burying someone because of it. If it happens, it happens. It's not very likely. But oil prices are going through something completely unrelated and aren't likely to bounce back with the rest of the economy once the politicians calm down.
#7.1 Jack Water on 2020-04-22 21:33 (Reply)
What's the over/under on damage for leaving the subway open and closing everything else vs. closing the subway and leaving everything else open?
#8 Andrew Stanton on 2020-04-22 13:09 (Reply)
Speaking of the subway hazard: when the lockdown started and subway traffic dropped off far enough that commuters no longer were coughing directly in each other's faces, NY cut down the number of trains to save money. So each car stayed as densely crowded as before.

But the rest of the country definitely should follow the lead of Andrew ("if it saves one life") Cuomo.
#8.1 Texan99 on 2020-04-22 13:23 (Reply)
Well if he REALLY believes that then he should lower the speed limit in NY to 10mph.
#8.1.1 Andrew Stanton on 2020-04-22 16:40 (Reply)
The CDC screwed up testing...the CDC and NIH are unaccountable government agencies. Screwing up is what they do best. Incompetence is rewarded with promotions. As participants in Event 201 you would think they would have at least minor competence in carrying out their mission but it seems they focus mostly of funding. And guess what...they got more special funding for their failings. Perhaps they purposely screwed up test kits so we would have no idea about the virus transmission ability or spread. I rate their panic mode as just more Russia, Russia, Russia.
#9 indyjonesouthere on 2020-04-22 13:33 (Reply)
Nailed it Indy. Bureaucracies aren't there to help people, they are an employment program for the incompetent. The fact that the under performing can't be fired makes it impossible to reform these organizations even if one wanted to.

And yet we still listen to these people as if they were oracles.
#9.1 feeblemind on 2020-04-22 18:46 (Reply)

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