Tuesday, November 11. 2014
 Humans are innately tribal, are we not? We have ways of communicating our tribal identifications by dress, manners, comportment, tone of speech, appearance, etc.
People can almost instantly identify a fellow tribesman/woman, and can just as easily tell the real from the fake (eg, Ralph Lauren Polo is fake).
Here's the preppiest website I have ever seen. It's for real, and done by a gal named Muffy: The Daily Prep.
 Hooray for sexual liberation! Now I can die lonely and poor
Marriage? Check
Kid? Check
Affair? Check
Divorce? Check
Shitty work? Check
Lousy life? Check
Wants a do-over? Yes.
I’m 41, Single and Pregnant. Welcome to the New Normal.
She sounds like a 14 year-old, maybe got the numbers reversed
"We should stop putting women in jail. For anything.”
Innocent little things, victims of oppression.
The Rise of Extreme Daycare
It takes a village
Monday, November 10. 2014
This topic might be triggering to our readers: This is how bad censorship is getting: Discussions of what can’t be said come with a ‘trigger warning.’
Hypersensitivity to the trauma allegedly inflicted by listening to controversial ideas approaches a strange form of derangement—a disorder whose lethal spread in academia grows by the day. What should be the object of derision, a focus for satire, is instead the subject of serious faux academic discussion and precautionary warnings. For this disorder there is no effective quarantine.
It doesn't need satire because it satirizes itself. But in the UK, the government is considering speech permits. That is not a joke. I think it must be mostly about not pissing off their Muslims.
Sunday, November 9. 2014
 It's the peak of apple season in Yankeeland, and the best use for apples is Apple Pie and Tarte Tatin, which is sort of a semi-burned upside-down apple pie. Other than just eating one off the tree.
The Tarte Tatin was supposedly invented by mistake. I have tried to make them many times, but I can never get the hard crispy caramelization on the apples that I seek: I just get a browned upside-down apple pie - a gooey mush that sticks to the pan and makes for a mess of a presentation (but tastes good anyway).
Hard apples - not cooking apples, high heat and an iron skillet seem to be important. Some people seem to have no trouble getting it right, but I never do.
Here's a recipe. If you can make it right, it ain't too terribly bad with a scoop of homemade vanilla ice cream on the side.
My chef friend advises making them with a basic Flan Pastry, aka Chef's Pastry. Chef claims that once you've had a good Tarte Tatin, you'll never go back to apple pie with its overdose of pastry.
I have wanted to add my two cents to the catcall discussion (Beyond Parody: How Feminists Are Redefining 'Hello' As Sexual Assault).
Let's first accept that men, especially young men, tend to be hormonally sexually alert and curious most of the time. Flirtatious too, when feeling confident. Doesn't that mean that the catcalls and other uninvited words simply come down to a matter of manners?
Here's a related question:
A good and mannerly young fellow on the subway finds himself standing next to a young lady who is reading Jane Austen. Cupid's arrow strikes him. From her appearance, her movements, etc. he feels that this is the girl God has made him for and he can't keep his eyes off her.
Should he say "How do you like the book?" Or should he decide not to be taken as a creep, let it pass, and kick himself for a month for passing up what might have been a life-changing opportunity to meet the woman of his dreams?
Saturday, November 8. 2014
Earlier this year, my son came home from school and asked me how hard it was to brew beer. This was not a surprising question from a boy who is 17. I still asked him why he wanted to know. His response was related to school (shocking). He said his Chemistry teacher brewed beer. I thought for a moment, and pointed out that cooking was a form of chemistry, so brewing seemed a natural extension.
At that point I mentioned a brew kit my brother had purchased for my birthday many years ago. It languished in an apartment closet until we moved to our house, and I never utilized it It was gone, but I asked would he be interested in learning to brew?
The answer was robustly affirmative, and we began to look into the purchase of a brew kit.
If you have the desire, you can build your own brew kit for about $35. Two 6 gallon Home Depot buckets, a siphon, an airlock, some washers and a small plastic spigot and you're all set to build the kit on your own. The spigot, washers and airlock can all be purchased online. You'll need lids for the Home Depot buckets. You'll need drills to attach the spigot and the airlock. It will take a little time and effort, but would save a little cash. The alternative is to spend about $100, buy the kit ready made along with all the ingredients for your first batch of brew. I opted for the expensive, easier, route.
You'll also want to read up on brewing first, too.
Continue reading "Oktober Brew for November - reposted"
Not Asian-Americans, but Asians from Asia:
They’re far outpacing Americans, particularly on the quantitative section of the test. Many B-school admissions officers say that a score on the quantitative section is the best predictor of success in an MBA program.
One result of these disparities is that Americans’ percentile rankings have dropped, even though their raw scores have remained constant in recent years. With Asia-Pacific students applying to and attending American business schools in large numbers, some schools complained to the Graduate Management Admission Council (GMAC), which administers the GMAT. As the WSJ put it, schools “don’t want to become factories for high-scoring test-takers from abroad.”
Thursday, November 6. 2014
How to Lie With Statistics was the first book I was required to read when I was studying for my Master's in Economics. The book wasn't designed to show us how to lie, but to make a point. It's easy to lie with statistics. 100% of the time. 60% of the time, lying works all the time. It's all about positioning. Al Franken cut his teeth by showing how Republicans lied using tricky graphing techniques, then started using his own special brand of lying to continue to hoodwink his constituents.
The book was really designed to get students to think about context. When I present data, I never present just data, I present context. It's not enough to say that Man-Made Global Warming correlates with the reduction in pirate activity. We all know correlation is not causation, the context of why the lack of piracy is causing Global Warming is critical.
I recently posted about why interest rates won't rise. Part of that discussion continued on in the comments section, regarding inflation and savings. Normally, interest rates are slightly higher than inflation (positive real interest rates), and typically fall below the rate of inflation when the economy is in a rut (negative real interest rates, when people spend more than they save, driving up inflation but eventually causing interest rates to rise in order to attract savings). Yet we have not seen a general rise in inflation or interest rates in the last few years. There are many reasons for this, and those reasons are helping to keep real interest rates negative and low. If we knew the truth, we'd probably see more consumers behave differently, and it's likely the Fed couldn't continue engaging its policy of printing more money. But hiding inflation is exceedingly easy to do. Especially if you utilize hedonic adjustments, which is one of many methods used to delude the populace.
Hedonic adjustments can be justifiable. For example, if a regular banana costs $1, but a banana that keeps you full all day and meets your minimum daily health needs is only $5, it would appear the 'cost' of a banana is 400% higher than it should be, if you want to live. However, if it takes 10 regular bananas to match what you can get from 1 $5 banana, then you've actually realized a 50% decrease in price! Hedonics DO make sense,when in the realm of productivity gains for the consumer.
However, as the linked article from Zero Hedge points out, you can use 'enjoyment quality' to make a 400% increase actually appear to be a 7.1% decrease. You get no real additional value out of a 42 inch plasma TV that you didn't get from a 27 inch LCD. But the government can quantify and justify that the price you paid was actually LESS for the big screen plasma, even if it wasn't. Voila! You've saved money by spending more! Looking at the list of areas where hedonic adjustments are applied show a variety of useless of price decreases, simply so the government can imply regularly that you are spending less than you really are. It helps our politicians maintain "the money illusion." This benefits them, allowing them to engage Keynes' famous quote, “Lenin (the founder of the former communist Soviet Union) was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose”.
So yes, technically our inflation rate has been far higher than you realize, and the Fed has been making your savings worth less and less each year. No, it probably won't end well, so enjoy it while you can, and remember to try and find the contextual support for any government data. There usually isn't any.
At Neoneo:
What Democrats said to Republicans when Democrats were in charge of Congress: We don’t have to listen to you any more.
What Democrats will say to Republicans now that Democrats are no longer in charge of Congress: Bipartisanship forever!
Bipartisanship to get what "jobs done"? Oh, it's about "progress." Althouse:
I'm uneasy at the word "progress." It assumes the existence of a road and knowledge of where it leads. I see no reason to believe in President Obama's idea of "progress." America rejected it yesterday.
When progress means more Federal money, power, control, and force, it's not progress: it's regression towards feudalism. I have some ideas about "jobs to be done" on the federal level which would mean progress to me:
Fix tort law, install a universal flat tax with no deductions and maybe a negative tax for the very poor and hopeless and helpless (or should that be left to the states?), secure the US border, deport illegals and be more welcoming of valuable legals, revise Obamacare to voluntary with a meaningful mix of options, eliminate the useless Federal Dept of Education, eliminate Death Taxes, make unionizing federal employees illegal, get rid of the failed war on drugs, eliminate the Dept of Homeland Security, shrink the EPA back to its original purpose, eliminate all farm subsidies including the ethanol scam and the sugar scam, eliminate all federal subsidies for flood insurance, eliminate the Dept of Commerce (except for NOAA), eliminate the ATF, tighten oversight for Disability, quit funding the UN, put a tight leash on the NSA, ban all government drones domestically along with banning the militarization of police, put NASA back in space - or privatize it, find a way to felonize crony capitalism, eliminate the Dept of HUD, restructure Social Security, get our military out of Europe and Japan and let them fend for themselves, get the federal government out of the mortgage market entirely, eliminate corporate taxes and make the US a corporate tax haven for the world (economic effects would be amazing), shut down the Fed and let markets work freely for better or worse without central efforts at control...and that's just for starters.
Let's get all those jobs done in a nice bipartisan way, ok? If there was ever a time to reach fearlessly, it's now. It might be a narrow window for real progress.
Scott Ott: No, Sen. Reid, Americans Don’t Want Washington to ‘Work Together’, ‘Get Things Done’?
What progress is on your wish list, my fellow Americans?
Wednesday, November 5. 2014
It's a difficult subject to study because people are not likely to reveal their more taboo fantasies. Furthermore, in my field we tend to believe that most of our fantasies (sexual and otherwise) are kept safely beneath our own awareness.
As a Psychiatrist, I can tell you that quite normal people commonly contain all sorts of aberrant and "abnormal" fantasies which they would never act on or tell even their spouses about.
For what it's worth, Sexual fantasies: Are you normal?
Addendum, There Are Very Few 'Uncommon' Sexual Fantasies:
The study found that one of the most common sexual fantasies, after the five “typical” ones, is submission, with approximately 65 percent of women and 53 percent of men fantasizing about being submissive. More men than women fantasized about dominating their partners. Still, there remains a distinction between fantasy and reality. Of the women who fantasized about being dominated, half said that they wouldn’t want to actually be dominated in real life. Reading 50 Shades of Grey, for example, could be an outlet to imagine these fantasies without acting on them.
Like some of you, I've been reading about the election from all corners of the web: Left, Conservative, MSM, etc.
One take-home I get from it all is that the Dem core, on which they rely for votes and/or money, consists of single women, billionaires and multi-millionaires, "old money", crony capitalists, Wall St. millionaires, unionistas, Hollywood and its allies and sycophants, black Americans, government-dependent Americans, and urban white Liberals (including nice gentry Liberals, and academics, students, and college townspeople).
That's not news, but I just find it interesting. I can't really relate to any of those bloc-voting components.
The other take-home I get is that those people have an incomprehensible hatred and contempt for ordinary hard-working and entrepreneurial people like me. Why? I do not hate them, and it is unlikely that they would hate me if they met me. I happily work 14-hour days to build our business and to employ and supervise the new people we need.
Our major challenges to continuing growth are competition (good) and government (bad).
Tuesday, November 4. 2014
We're told regularly that, at some point, Quantitative Easing will end and interest rates will rise. Zero Hedge provides a window as to why this is unlikely to occur in any meaningful way.
It's not uncommon to hear Fed officials and politicians deny that we are monetizing debt. Technically, we are not. We issue debt, the debt gets purchased, and the Fed (which is essentially a private institution, though it's really a quasi-governmental institution) buys it back. Normally government debt is held by the public, which is why economic analysis of the old "crowding out" problem was so prevalent.
By keeping interest rates low, and repurchasing debt, the appearance of private ownership is maintained, but it is a roundabout method of monetizing debt. Allowing rates to rise to any meaningful degree will have severe negative impacts, in the short term. Since we are in a politically driven economy, this cannot be allowed to occur, so interest rates must remain artificially low.
Of course, the long term ramifications of monetizing debt are inflation (followed by deflation) and severe misallocation of economic resources. In other words, bankruptcies, unemployment and a financial morass. Not to mention the end of an expectation of comfortable retirement (how can you retire on a fixed income if interest rates are below 1%?).
Don't expect interest rates to move up any time soon, and don't expect any reporting of realistic inflation. Just vote for the guy/gal who will shovel the most tax money toward you.
Except in the small ways (eg the color of a moth's wings, or different kinds of finches), I am a skeptic about evolution, possibly because I do not really understand the theories behind the theories. I do get the part about development of related species, but I do not get the adaptive advantage of an elephant over a bacterium or an algae colony. I am told we live in the Age of Bacteria, a world in which bacteria are the largest (by volume) and most populous organisms, and thus the most successful and best-adapted to current times (and for multi-cellular critters, the bugs win). Thus it is difficult for me to view humanity as the new, improved crown of creation any more than elephants.
No, I am not talking about intelligent design and all that. Also, I understand that evolutionary theories (of which there are several) say nothing about "progress," just adaptation to current conditions. It's just that I find the science and the logic of it all puzzling.
So did the fine essayist Stephen Jay Gould. I enjoyed this, but had to read it twice: Challenges to Neo- Darwinism and Their Meaning for a Revised View of Human Consciousness
Sunday, November 2. 2014
A brief history of the origins of book chapters. One quote:
Fielding’s older brother, the novelist Henry Fielding, had already, in “Joseph Andrews” (1742), explained “those little Spaces between our Chapters” as “an Inn or Resting-Place, where he may stop and take a Glass, or any other Refreshment, as it pleases him.” Chapter titles, Fielding proceeded to explain, were like the inscriptions over the doors of those inns, advertising the accommodations within.
Saturday, November 1. 2014
How did they even graduate from high school? Completely Clueless Week at College Insurrection.
As someone who is relatively young in business but now occasionally asked to interview possible new hires, I have developed a list of general information questions which I like to use. Math, history, religion, scope of reading, current events, art, etc. After all, unless somebody is a genius in our field, you really want to hire people you want to be around and to work with, and secondarily people who you think can help make money because they are young and that can be hard to predict.
If they don't help you make money you can just let them go, but they at least have been good company for a while.
Thursday, October 30. 2014
The more confident a person is in his own wisdom or understanding, the more likely he is to be off base. That's the old Dunning-Kruger Effect.
More info on the topic: We Are All Confident Idiots. A quote:
Because it’s so easy to judge the idiocy of others, it may be sorely tempting to think this doesn’t apply to you. But the problem of unrecognized ignorance is one that visits us all. And over the years, I’ve become convinced of one key, overarching fact about the ignorant mind. One should not think of it as uninformed. Rather, one should think of it as misinformed.
Wednesday, October 29. 2014
Governments try to control what kids eat, and they'd like to control what you consume also.
However, government planning rarely can do anything right not only because central planning can never work but because government is plain dumb.
Dietary fats do not cause vascular disease, and dietary fats do not make you fat. From The Last Anti-Fat Crusaders - The low-fat-diet regimen is turning out to be based on bad science, but the USDA has been slow to catch on:
The most current and rigorous science on saturated fat is moving in the opposite direction from the USDA committee. A landmark meta-analysis of all the available evidence, conducted this year by scientists at Cambridge and Harvard, among others, and published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, concluded that saturated fats could not, after all, be said to cause heart disease.
Tuesday, October 28. 2014
I'll admit I'm not much of a fan of the musical arts, particularly symphony or opera. It's never appealed to me. I don't dislike it, I'm just not a fan. I attended my town's symphony orchestra (not an official symphony orchestra, as it's part-time), and it was a good way to spend two hours of a Saturday evening and socialize. But I have to admit I would've rather been home watching my Syracuse Orangemen play Duke in basketball (they lost, and it was a great game). That's just how my tastes have evolved.
Tonight I watched the Kansas City Symphony play the national anthem at Game 6 of the World Series. I began to wonder, if you're a trained musician and you don't make a major orchestra, do you begin trying out for smaller city orchestras? I had no idea. I suppose you begin looking for seats in various cities until you can find one. Then I wondered whether it's lucrative work.
These are extremely difficult jobs. While I may not be deeply involved in the symphony, I am well aware how hard it is to be good enough to be asked to join one, especially the best (Boston, Philadelphia, New York, etc.). That said, how much could it pay?
I was rather surprised. I didn't expect them to live on subsistence wages, but it makes me wish I'd had a greater appreciation for music (and the talent to go along with it) in my youth.
There is reason think so, at least for the moment.
Sad to say, Psychiatric meds cannot really fix anything, just ameliorate and prevent. But that is true of many meds. I do not think that our meds have anything to do with the underlying problems whether in the soul, in the genes, or in the wiring. As I am wont to say, a headache is not an aspirin deficiency disorder.
Our ability to control or prevent psychotic episodes is remarkable, but still the patient is never fully well. Quit the meds, and it can return.
Seems like everybody wants to be a therapist or counselor these days.
Everybody has problems of various degrees, and indeed sometimes it is helpful to talk it over with a trusted person. I have no problem with Biblical counseling. Anybody in a "helping profession" needs to know his limits and needs to be humble about his capacities.
My guess is that biblical counseling as some form of psychotherapy (as opposed to help with relationship to God which I would call Pastoral Counseling) can be most helpful for those whose guilt is honestly come by. By that I mean people who have every reason to feel troubled by guilt and remorse because they have done wrong, have not earned self-respect or earned a feeling of deserving God's love (which is another complicated topic). In other words, non-neurotic guilt.
The Rise of Biblical Counseling
Monday, October 27. 2014
On our tour of Manhattan, Bird Dog noted the discovery of Robert Henri's home on Gramercy Park.
Henri was a founder and one of the better known members of the Ashcan School, along with several others who were known as the "Philadelphia Four." Among these four artists was Everett Shinn. Everett felt one of our tour stops, Washington Square, was the "most beautiful place in New York."
It certainly is a wonderful place, vibrant and active on nice days. Shinn caught its beauty on a wet and windy night, as well.
(A late note - in our comments, a regional Philadelphia artist clarified that the "Philadelphia Four" is actually the "Philadelphia Five" and inclusive of Henri. It seems information on the intertubes is less than clear about the term, as Henri was mentor to the Four. However, the terms seem interchangeable. Ephemeral New York noted that George Bellows lived near Gramercy Park, as well, on 19th Street. We did not pass his house on our tour.)
Sunday, October 26. 2014
Discussions about free will are too often binary. It does not take a neuroscientist or a philosopher to see that choices of action (or inaction) occur in the context of a complicated web of culture and tradition, peer pressures, character, emotional state, etc.
From Daniel Dennett's Are we free? Neuroscience gives the wrong answer:
What a coup it would be if your neuroscience experiment brought about the collapse of several millennia of inconclusive philosophising about free will! A curious fact about these forays into philosophy is that almost invariably the scientists concentrate on the least scientifically informed, most simplistic conceptions of free will, as if to say they can’t be bothered considering the subtleties of alternative views worked out by mere philosophers. For instance, all the experiments in the Libet tradition take as their test case of a freely willed decision a trivial choice—between flicking or not flicking your wrist, or pushing the button on the left, not the right—with nothing hinging on which decision you make. Mele aptly likens these situations to being confronted with many identical jars of peanuts on the supermarket shelf and deciding which to reach for. You need no reason to choose the one you choose so you let some unconscious bias direct your hand to a jar—any jar—that is handy. Not an impressive model of a freely willed choice for which somebody might be held responsible. Moreover, as Mele points out, you are directed not to make a reasoned choice, so the fact that you have no clue about the source of your urge is hardly evidence that we, in general, are misled or clueless about how we make our choices.
Friday, October 24. 2014
I believe that evil exists. I have seen it in myself, and I think I understand the human desire to externalize it or to deny it. Denial of evil is dangerous.
From The Guardian (really): The truth about evil - Our leaders talk a great deal about vanquishing the forces of evil. But their rhetoric reveals a failure to accept that cruelty and conflict are basic human traits
One quote from this good essay:
There are some who think the very idea of evil is an obsolete relic of religion. For most secular thinkers, what has been defined as evil in the past is the expression of social ills that can in principle be remedied. But these same thinkers very often invoke evil forces to account for humankind’s failure to advance. The secularisation of the modern moral vocabulary that many believed was under way has not occurred: public discourse about good and evil continues to be rooted in religion. Yet the idea of evil that is invoked is not one that features in the central religious traditions of the west. The belief that evil can be finally overcome has more in common with the dualistic heresies of ancient and medieval times than it does with any western religious orthodoxy.
I know a guy who got an A+ in Physical Chemistry at an elite university, and never went to class. He needed the spare time to practice with his grunge band. He told me he spent 24 hours non-stop going through the textbook with the help of some borrowed Adderal.
I suspect he missed a lot of interesting stuff, but he got the competency.
There are plenty of reasons for "seat time" in many areas of study, but certainly not in all. For example, there really are no valid criteria (in my view) for competency in Art History, or in history for that matter.
Here's the idea: Hacking Higher Ed With Competency-Based Education
Related, competency exams may be racially-biased via disparate impact. Here's that whole story, from Bill McMorris: How the Supreme Court Created the Student Loan Bubble - It all starts with Griggs v. Duke Power Co.
Thursday, October 23. 2014
It depends on how you define freedom, doesn't it?
Does Everybody Want Freedom? Most do, even those who appear to enjoy slavery.
My experience in life has taught me that many or most people would accept some form of feudalism in exchange for safety and security for themselves and their families. Serfdom, if you will.
Caught as most of us are between a job and the government, it's all still basically feudal is it not? Not what the American founders had in mind.
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