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Maggie's FarmWe are a commune of inquiring, skeptical, politically centrist, capitalist, anglophile, traditionalist New England Yankee humans, humanoids, and animals with many interests beyond and above politics. Each of us has had a high-school education (or GED), but all had ADD so didn't pay attention very well, especially the dogs. Each one of us does "try my best to be just like I am," and none of us enjoys working for others, including for Maggie, from whom we receive neither a nickel nor a dime. Freedom from nags, cranks, government, do-gooders, control-freaks and idiots is all that we ask for. |
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Thursday, December 4. 2008The Economics of Too Big to FailFrom guest writer Bruce Kesler, who seems to have found a comfortable new place to pitch his tent at Maggie's -
Traditional economic theory has advanced over the past two hundred years, from simpler unifocal causation to multicausal, usually seen to operate mechanistically, which lends itself to mathematic modeling. In various ways, the emphasis is on rational decision making. Time lags are introduced to approximate learning and reaction curves. Neoclassical microeconomics has been aggregated in Keynsian macroeconomics, both lending themselves to feelings of efficacy in prescribing governmental actions. More recent behavioral economics adds that the process, at the individual or societal level, is less than perfectly rational measured choices, and often irrational. Stated, real or perceived self-interests are imperfectly or not pursued, and experiential feedback is imperfectly or not heeded. Experiments, data manipulation and controlled observations of inputs and results extend the testing and understanding of the many various approaches to economics. But, they still result in confusion, both by their battling contentions and lack of adequate predictability. Still, governments and their advisors continue to argue for one course or another, largely based on these theories, and all of us are affected. This isn’t to argue that such efforts at understanding and guidance are misplaced or unnecessary. It is to argue that more humility is needed in charting such courses. It is also to argue, now even more importantly, that a major element is missing from current economic thought: some segments of society have grown so large or powerful they are treated as too big to either challenge or fail, which grossly distorts the operations of the economy and results in grossly excess costs that create greater lasting harms. Continue reading "The Economics of Too Big to Fail" J.R. NyquistOur reader Buddy recommends perusing J. R. Nyquist's Global Analysis site. Check out some of his older - and newer columns. As Buddy says, the guy is prescient. Wednesday, December 3. 2008Watermelon Man and Hippie Totalitarianism
Jonathan Adler (himself a global cooling denier) takes a look at Gus Speth and his new book. Speth is as green as they come, and Dean of the Yale School of Forestry. The piece in The New Atlantis, Green Bridge to Nowhere, is quite revealing. I'll just offer one quote:
Read the whole piece for full insight into this totalitarian movement. Power grabs used to be "for the children," then they were "for the greater good," and now they are "for the planet." I guess any excuse will do for those who imagine that they know better than us regular benighted people. And as far as my "well-being" goes - if I want advice, I will ask for it. Monday, December 1. 2008"Still tenured, still radical"Roger Kimball, author of Tenured Radicals, revisits the state of the campus, and its ongoing politicization. One quote:
Posted by The Barrister
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Friday, November 28. 2008Give 'em free money instead?
That's from Stumbling, with whom we have frequent disagreements. He refuses to consider the possibility that some entrepreneurial women might want to be whores. It pays well, requires little higher education, and is a "cash business" (ie, no taxes). We already linked AVI's piece on a related topic, with this quote:
Yes. We get to decide what we want around us, don't we? Sometimes I think rationalist materialists like Stumbling need to listen more often to this great Supertramp tune and develop a bit of humility about his/their rationalism:
Monday, November 24. 2008Iraq: Operation A Success, The Patient Died
The following is from our regular guest poster Bruce Kesler:
We won the war, but lost the victory. That charge can legitimately be made about Inevitably, domestically and abroad, new inimical forces are strengthened or unleashed, encouraged by our turning inward. World War I led to the rise of state fascism and communism, as we focused on our own comforts. World War II led to Eastern Europe and On the other hand, World War I spread the ideal of self-rule and led to the end of colonialism that sapped rulers’ wealth and honor. World War II led to the world-wide wealth-producing leadership of American free enterprise. The
While WMD’s were not discovered in What will The ending of prior wars led to our electorate relaxing and turning its attentions internally. That led to increasing the potentials for those with nefarious objectives to try their chances. We’ve done it again. And so will they. Comparatively, The US will emerge from the global economic meltdown as strong or stronger than ever, as our innate and predominant values of free and responsible initiative are strengthened while others are more committed to statist stultifying. Good thing, because we have also repeated the error of turning in, which will only encourage those abroad with nefarious objectives. The operation will, again, have been successful, and the victory lost. History continues, and future generations will pay the price. Sunday, November 23. 2008Andrew Gelman on the ElectionVoters making over $200,000/year (which is upper-middle class, except in NY, CT, and parts of CA) voted well over 50% for Obama. Will Wilkinson discusses the demographics of the election with Andrew Gelman, author of Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State. Among many other topics, he attempts to understand how formerly Repub states like NY, CT and California became Democratic. Also, a bit on happiness and "progress." Video here. Socialism vs. the ConservativesA GOP strategist earlier this year, as quoted via Rick Moran in Will Nationalized Health Care Kill Conservatism? -
Rick disagrees, but opines that further govt entitlement obligations will be catastrophic for the US. There's no doubt that a government grab of 14% of the economy would be a huge shift. Friday, November 21. 2008Universal Medical Care: One Simple QuestionThis is a post by guest writer Bruce Kesler:
Their launch point is the 98 page outline issued by Senator Max Baucus. Their point man is to be former Senator Tom Daschle, proposed as Secretary of Health and Human Resources, who has written of similar ambitions and is deemed to be able to wheel and deal toward that end. Estimates of cost are in the area of $150-billion a year, and growing. Since it shares many of the aspects of Although only about 20-25% of the 47-million who are uninsured are actually US citizens in financial or underwriting need, let’s for the sake of this exercise use the 47-million number. At an average monthly premium cost of $158, according to a recent study of actual individual premiums, that means $7.5 billion per month, or $90-billion a year. Make that $250 a month, to include broader benefits that government typically requires in its plans, more health conditions due to guaranteed issue, and more elderly with community rating that averages their costs down while increasing costs for the younger, and you have $11.75 billion per month, or $141-billion a year. Cut that back by even half, to eliminate benefits for illegal immigrants, for the legal ones whose sponsors are supposed to be responsible, and for those who can afford coverage but choose to go bare, and you’ve got an annual $70-billion program. Assuming that Democrats are determined to further bust the federal budget and place us deeper in debt, paying or subsidizing the premiums of the truly needy uninsured would be cheaper than their favored schemes. All that without a major disruption of the coverage, benefits, freedom of choice of everyone else, and without creating a huge new government bureaucracy that interferes with innovation in treatments or delivery. So, is the Democrats’ goal increasing Americans’ access to health care? Or is it increasing their own access to control over Americans, with the increased access to self-enrichment that comes from government programs? Thursday, November 20. 2008Why McCain Lost( Warning: Some salty language) Pretty much the same reason this guy did. Never make the first thing on your resume the last thing on your resume.
Kondratiev Speaks about Honda
Honda Motor has announced that its worldwide vehicle production for the year-to-date increased 3.4% to 2,985,638 units, compared to the same period of 2007. 915,574 of those cars were made in
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Monday, November 17. 2008Why do they hate me? Is it my morals?Why do Liberals hate Conservatives so much? A quote from Ace:
Read the whole thing, but the point is well-taken. Libs and Conservatives are coming from different places, with different basic assumptions. I don't think it explains the hatred, though.
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Saturday, November 15. 2008Markets, culture, and moralityWill Wilkinson responded to the Posner piece which we linked the other day with the following excellent synopsis and, I think, accurate correction of Posner's views:
Comment from Dr. Bliss: Yes, I agree with WW that the always interesting U of Chicago Law Prof and blogger Posner gets it wrong. Institutions shape neither people nor culture: the relationship between people and their culture - and the institutions they produce - is circular and interactive, and an ecological sort of model applies better than a binary or unidirectional one. Funnily enough, I happen to be planning a post on the subject. Thursday, November 13. 2008The Futile Quest for Climate ControlResearcher Robert Carter has a good summary of the realities of the AGW frenzy, with the above title. One quote from his essay:
He goes on to make the case that mankind can adapt to climate shifts, regardless of their causes, just as it has done in the past. To our Canadian friends
To our Canadian friends who do not believe that Free Speech is just "an American idea" but a fundamental human right and a central individual freedom from the power of the State, read this.
Wednesday, November 12. 2008McArdle on the proposed auto bailoutOne quote from her piece:
It's been as clear as day to everyone for years that the once-Big Three are lousy companies with lousy businesses, products that don't sell, and that nobody wants to invest in anymore - except politicians. We're a Toyota country now (except for the Ford F series). But who ever said raw politics has to make logical sense? This is called vote-buying, and a big thank-you to Michigan for going blue by supporting existing union contracts. With our money. There is a certain sort of political logic in that. Comment from The Barrister: What is often left out in these discussions is that bankruptcy would not put these companies out of business and these workers out of work. They would reorganize (and renegotiate contracts), or sell off their parts. And from BD: Follow the money. Best I can figger, all that a bailout would bail out is the existing union contracts, and little more. And from the NJ: I would not be happy to be working to support Michigan union benefits, which are so much more generous than mine - or those of most folks - that it's ridiculous. Why would I want to do that? Those businesses are obsolete, but somebody is going to try to sell us the notion that they need my money to go green, or some similar BS. Toyota already did that.
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Tuesday, November 11. 2008Genteel, Loyal Opposition vs. Going Medieval
Naturally, the soon-to-be-installed Federal pols and their supporters are urging Kumbaya peace and harmony - on their terms, of course. That will never happen. Paul at Powerline makes the case for genteel, loyal opposition. In a similar vein, neoneo warns those at risk for Obama Derangement Syndrome. John Hawkins is inclined the other way: You guys arent going to do to us what we did to you, are ya? A cranky Ace tries to straddle the line thus:
My opinion? My opinion doesn't really matter, but I'll try to stand for some humor and truth. (Plus we aren't a political website anyway.) Photo from Moonbattery's Moonbats Ready for Unity Now. Where was all of the togetherness last year?
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Monday, November 10. 2008The Wealth Effect and the RecessionMarginal Rev makes the case that slipping housing wealth is the cause of this recession, not banking. A quote:
Link above. Of course, these things snowball with slipping markets further reducing wealth and causing people and businesses to feel more reluctant to spend. Finally, Springtime eventually returns once marginal and undercapitalized businesses have been swept away, and pricing finds its realistic level. I continue to insist that we folks are in an ordinary recession - but the banking biz is surely in a strange and ugly one. I figure I have lost close to 20% of my net worth thus far, but that's measuring from the peak. One should never measure from peaks, because peaks never last. (Always measure things from historical trends.) Plus I really do not care what my home and land is worth, since I have no plan to leave it, I don't mind the bank holding title to it, I like having the mortgage interest deduction, and my equity line remains open (from which I used $150,000 for restoration work on the barns earlier this year - new roofs, new windows, plumbing, electric, repair rotten siding...). I have more wealth than I had 10 years ago, and that's what counts for feeling secure. I am utterly relaxed about my hefty mortgage and home equity because I know that Obama will pay it for me, unlike that mean George Bush who never offered to pay my bills. And I can't wait to get my government pony. Ponies are cute and, if times get tough, you can eat them.
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Friday, November 7. 2008Targets for RepublicansWhen a candidate or party loses an election, the tendency is to over-read it and to self-scrutinize, sometimes to a fault. When they win, the tendency is to over-read it and not self-scrutinize enough. Often, the process devolves into a circular firing squad for the former, and a circle jerk for the latter. We try to avoid both of those unseemly activities. These election thoughts by guest poster Bruce Kesler: Jon Henke, over at The New Right blog, says “Republicans deserved to lose.” His argument parallels mine in Appearances and Mood that “it is among conservatives that reform must come….Rank and file conservatives mostly looked to this inadequate leadership instead of to ourselves to step forward and fight.” Henke writes: The problem is a movement that plays small-ball and cedes responsibility for infrastructure to business interests, leadership that rewards those who make friends rather than waves, an entrenched Party and Movement support system that mostly supports itself, an echo chamber that has rotted our intellect, a grassroots that is ill-equipped to shape the Republican Party, and a Republican Party that has replaced strategy with tactics, substance with marketing. From there it’s downhill in the Comments on Henke’s post, as the argument devolves into whether the Party should be with libertarians or traditionalists, economic or social conservatives, Hispanics or Southerners, and so forth. In other words, the arguments are for further splitting asunder the Reagan coalition. Insane. Instead, the discussion should be on how to not only rebuild the Reagan coalition but how to enlarge it. There were five primary slippages in Republican votes during this election. The younger voters who are the children of liberal Boomers came of age and along with their educated parents went Obama. The working middle class suffered additional economic loss on top of their struggles with taxes, tuition, mortgages, car payments and just getting by. The staunch conservatives didn’t see McCain doing much more for their priorities other than not surrendering in Continue reading "Targets for Republicans" When "volunteering" becomes compulsoryChange? This is loony. When volunteering becomes compulsory, it's not volunteering any more, is it? Same difference between charity and taxes. Same as the draft. Plus, where I live, there are more volunteers than there are things to do. The chance to teach English to Hispanics has a long waiting list, and the Red Cross says "We'll call you if we need you." They have to form committees to try to "identify unmet needs." In other words, well-intentioned housewives and retired guys have to make up things to do because everybody who wants "help" already gets more than they can handle, and most New England folks seem too proud to accept help anyway. The old culture dies hard. Are people really so helpless in America that they need pimply high-schoolers or condescending do-gooder college kids - who know nothing at all about life - to "help" them? I very much doubt it. But I don't know anybody who isn't happy to cash a check or to take a freebie from the gummint to buy a new iPod. People are always happy to accept cash from "the gummint," because it doesn't feel so much like you're ripping off your neighbor. A Comment from our News Junkie:
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The Fairness Doctrine at Maggie's FarmLiberals want to bring back the so-called "Fairness Doctrine" as their plan to put talk radio out of business. How would it do that? Because every subject has 30 different views on it. I doubt that the Dems would wish to extend it to The Daily Kos or to Maggie's, but who knows? It always amuses me how Liberals cannot tolerate dissent. Let's all rely on NPR and become one beautiful, happy family of group-thinking "sensitive, caring" parasites. Anyway, in honor of the Dems' and especially Chuckie Shumer's desire to reinstate the Fairness Doctine, and out of consideration for our lady readers who feel that our Cheesecake/Beefcake ratio is way off target, we offer these: Navy SEAL in training emerges from the ocean:
In training, but not a Navy SEAL:
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Thursday, November 6. 2008Are voters rational?Political scientists love to discuss this topic. The short answer is simple, though: If they vote for my guy, they're rational - and vice-versa. Political scientists seem to think that voters should be more rational. Of course, neither voting nor politics are entirely rational, nor should they be. Life is too complex for logic, and non-rational doesn't mean stupid. The subject is discussed in Irrational Electorate by Larry Bartels, in Wilson Quarterly. Whose money is it?A quote from Robert Samuelson's The Poor aren't Poor Because Rich are Rich:
Read the whole thing. Of course, the whole Lefty populist mantra about "corporate greed" and "sharing" only appeals to economic illiterates, but America and the world have plenty of those. It's difficult to create wealth if you are economically illiterate, so your own envy or greed will make you want to take it away from somebody else who created it with their creativity, effort, skill and drive. The fallacy is the one we discuss so often: the notion that wealth is a zero-sum game. Wealth, as Americans understand better than most of the world does, is an infinitely-expandable thing. All it takes is peoples' desire and creative spirit. Unlike material things, wealth is created from thin air - and wealth is destroyed leaving no residue. Speaking of which, we were too caught up in the election flurry to post this video of Dem. Rep. Jim Moran discussing his thoughts on wealth redistribution. It's populist, socialistic - and either as ignorant as hell or manipulative as hell. Who does he think "owns" corporations? 2/3 of Americans "own" the corporations via being shareholders and bondholders. I'd like to see it advance to 100%. A lengthy QQQ from Michael Crichton on opinion and the media
I grew up in the 1950s, supposedly the heyday of conformity, but there was much more freedom of opinion back then. And as a result, you knew that your neighbors might hold different views from you on politics or religion. Today, the notion that men of good will can disagree has disappeared. Can you imagine! Today, if I disagree with you, you conclude there is something wrong with me. This is a childish, parochial view. And of course stupefyingly intolerant. It's truly anti-American. Much of it can be laid at the feet of the environmental movement, which has unfortunately frequently been led by ill-educated and intolerant spokespersons--often with no more than a high-school education, sometimes not even that. Or they are lawyers trained to win at any cost and to say anything about their opponents to win. But you find the same intolerant tone around considerations of defense, taxation, free markets, universal medical care, and so on. There's plenty of zealotry to go around. And it's hardly new in human history. Monday, November 3. 2008Appearances and Mood in Politics
Your Editor here at Maggie's will vote tomorrow (even though there is no point in ever voting) out of duty and citizenship. We promise no blame or recriminations towards anybody (except the press) if our preferred candidates lose in these elections which entail much more than just presidential elections, and we promise not to go hysterical, infantile, and paranoid like the Left tends to do if we don't get our way. (Well, but we may all move into Habu's cabin in Montana.)
Related to that, our guest poster Bruce Kesler has some thoughts in anticipation of vox populi:
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