We are a commune of inquiring, skeptical, politically centrist, capitalist, anglophile, traditionalist New England Yankee humans, humanoids, and animals with many interests beyond and above politics. Each of us has had a high-school education (or GED), but all had ADD so didn't pay attention very well, especially the dogs. Each one of us does "try my best to be just like I am," and none of us enjoys working for others, including for Maggie, from whom we receive neither a nickel nor a dime. Freedom from nags, cranks, government, do-gooders, control-freaks and idiots is all that we ask for.
Whether people return to work and restart the economy in time to prevent a depression depends not entirely on what President Trump or, in California, Gov. Newsom decide.
It ultimately hinges on whether the people who have been shut in their homes for a month listening to mostly doomsday modeling (e.g., the March 19 governor’s warning that without his draconian measures 25.5 million Californians could be infected within 8 weeks [a number at fluctuating fatality percentages could imply that over 800,000 state residents will be dead mid-May]) and media sensationalism, decide what to do. The people, not the politicians, will decide.
Media sensationalism has scared the heck out of otherwise rational people, and scared the crap out of those who are fearful people anyway
Unable to chase Trump from office through Russia, Russia, Russia; impeachment; and incessant whining about the Electoral College, the media are now riding the coronavirus panic. If they could just convince the public the president is responsible for every COVID-19 death, that he acted too soon, and acted too slowly, that he’s wielded too much power, and not enough, that he hasn’t said enough, but now he’s said too much, they could get their man elected in November. It’s almost as if the press was working from a list of Get Trump bullet points.
Frantz Fanon and the American Racial Eros - Forty years after the death of Jean-Paul Sartre, who wrote the controversial preface to Fanon’s ‘Black Skin, White Masks,’ white guilt is still tied to masochism
There is this probably particularly American mentality that if we just study a problem long enough, and are somehow smart enough, we will inevitably discover some option that creates a win-win scenario that avoids both the terrible health consequences (more infections and more deaths) or the terrible economic consequences (a depression that forces all kinds of businesses large and small into bankruptcy). The coronavirus may be presenting the countries of the world with a no-win situation.
Unless you have a treadmill or similar at home to dust off and use, track or trail running is a free alternative for endurance exercise. I always advise against true road-running unless you have no history or family history of lower joint issues.
As we have oft repeated, endurance exercise is worth doing once weekly if you do two other days of calisthenics (which also have endurance components). Although many refer to running as "cardio," it does little or nothing for heart functioning unless it includes HIIT, such as sprints.
Related, 10,000 steps: Not quite magical when it comes to weight. Walking is great to maintain mobility especially in the elderly, but it does nothing for the heart and certainly nothing for losing fat. Quite enjoyable, though. Walks are great, with friends, spouse, whatever.
A large swath of the "expert" community cloaked itself with unscientific certitude, beginning on March 16, with a model from the Imperial College London -- the source governments relied upon for the decision to ruin their economies -- which projected about 2.2 million Americans and half a million Brits would die.
Almost every national leader, politician and media outlet in the world believed that model. As I explained in my last column, modern men and women have substituted "experts" for prophets and priests. Science is the secular religion, and "experts" are its prophets and priests. In fact, they have greater authority among the secular, especially those left of center, than the pope of the Catholic Church has among Catholics. Whereas popes have invoked the doctrine of "infallibility" twice in the history of the Catholic Church, "experts" invoke it every day among the secular faithful.
Is social distancing intended to slow the spread and develop herd immunity, as a month of “flatten the curve” messaging claimed, or is it actually intended to minimize total infections? The former implies that we are probably ready to loosen restrictions; the latter implies a far longer and more painful quarantine.
Adding to the confusion is our inability to answer a fundamental question — namely, how useful has the lockdown been in the first place?
Re the former, I believe the purpose is to reduce pressure on medical care, because there is no way to indefinitely avoid exposure, illness, death. This germ is out there forever and a vaccine is a year away. Re the latter question, we'll never know. The US is not Sweden.
You have to give Vox a few molecules of credit for recognizing that while they rage against disinformation, some of their earliest pieces about COVID-19 included information that just wasn’t accurate — in part because it was coming from well-credentialed experts who flat-out misjudged the danger from the virus.
Nobody had the data, so nobody was alarmed. Even in February, 6 or 7 weeks ago, Dr. Fauci was reassuringly saying "just a flu, go to restaurants, etc." Our experts were consistently wrong in their guesses, jumping from sanguine to reckless panic, not just because of China but because they were all flying blind - VFR into IMC.
Do we all agree that nobody knows what the future holds? Or do I have to prove it to you? I ask this because there are some well-studied media effects which suggest that simply appearing in media provides credibility. There was a well-known series of excellent studies by Stanford researchers that have shown, for example, that children take media literally. If you show them a bag of popcorn on a television set and ask them what will happen if you turn the TV upside down, the children say the popcorn will fall out of the bag. This result would be amusing if it were confined to children. But the studies show that no one is exempt. All human beings are subject to this media effect, including those of us who think we are self-aware and hip and knowledgeable.
Media carries with it a credibility that is totally undeserved. You have all experienced this, in what I call the Murray Gell-Mann Amnesia effect. (I refer to it by this name because I once discussed it with Murray Gell-Mann, and by dropping a famous name I imply greater importance to myself, and to the effect, than it would otherwise have.)
Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them...
I was speaking with a friend, prior to the lockdown, about Covid and the political repercussions. His view was the politicians would overreact/overreach for one reason - demographics. He believed, and this is now proving to be correct, that the black population would be disproportionately hit. There are higher incidences of obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure, smoking, alcoholism - all at-risk traits. As a result, there'd be a need to try to 'protect' these people and manage the data. They did a good job with the data, but as usual, you can't hide the truth all the time.
These at-risk traits are the natural result of bondage to the state. As the US moved heavily to institutionalize all kinds of state aid to 'lift up' a downtrodden people, the government created a permanent underclass that is in thrall to the state, and engaging more irresponsible behaviors as a result (please note, I'm not saying black people are irresponsible - this is true of people of many ethnicities who have become multi-generational recipients of state aid). Taking responsibility for one's life is hard, and it's hard work. The state can step in and solve all that for you, though. Free health care, free food, free homes. It's good stuff, if you can get it. You can even become a 'Covid Patriot' full time by just going along with state aid.
So it's no surprise to see calls for 'reparations' for Covid hitting the black population so hard. Yes, they have suffered more. I'm not sure the survivors deserve 'reparations' though. After all, it's hit men disproportionately, too. Perhaps we can have calls for Covid reparations for men?
I'll sit and wait for my reparations check. Pass the chips and bourbon, please.
From Cavalleria Rusticana (trans, Rustic Chivalry), 1890. The opera is set on Easter Day.
Before the action takes place the young villager Turiddu returned from military service to find out that his fiancée Lola had married the carter Alfio while he was away.[11] In revenge, Turiddu seduced Santuzza, a young woman in the village. As the opera begins, Lola, overcome by her jealousy of Santuzza, has begun an adulterous affair with Turiddu.
At the centre of the story is an unhappy young woman, Santuzza, who feels that she is not worthy to attend the Easter mass as she has had a sexual relationship outside of marriage. The opera is based on a short story by Giovanni Verga. It is set in a Sicilian village in the 19th century, where a tense drama unfolds on Easter Sunday. The Easter Hymn is a tribute to the Lord, performed by the villagers and Santuzza:
Let's not take advantage of the self-employed tradesmen and workers: electricians, carpenters, pavers, landscape people, roofers, delivery restaurants, plumbers, painters, fitness trainers, hairdressers, etc. etc. during hard times.
Right now, they are desperate for work and offering bids which are almost 50% of what they would have done 6 months ago. So my feeling is this is the time to get a lot of jobs off your checklist in affordable and prompt ways, but don't be a schnorrer. They are all under-bidding eachother just to stay busy and to keep their helpers working. A minor profit is better than nothing.
These people have families to feed, and times are tough. If you can, put these people to work and don't give them a hard time about it. Do it for America.
Maggie's HQ Easter Report: Went out early to do some outdoor chores after a morning run. Repairing and painting birdhouses, planting some herbs, shed-cleaning, shrub pruning. Almost stepped on (photo) a Robin's egg in the grass. Sheesh, like a perfect Easter Egg. Then I saw a baby Cottontail bunny hopping away. That is called an Easter Blessing.
Then, in respect for my father-in-law (quarantining sort-of, here) we streamed Cardinal Dolan's Easter mass at St. Patrick's. What a fine fellow he is.
New Yorkers are not easily cowed. We are not ones to be contained. We live here because we are extremely social and curious creatures. We tolerate cramped apartments because they are merely places to shower and sleep. The city is the draw, the prize, the home.
Now we see what New York is like without her people. The Statue of Liberty welcomes no one. Times Square and Grand Central Station, places and names that serve as national expressions of overcrowded chaos, host lonely commuters. Part of Central Park is now, incredibly, a field hospital — as is the Javits Center and the US Open tennis complex. Santiago Calatrava’s World Trade Center Oculus, the winged symbol of our rebirth after 9/11, sits hollow and tomblike.
Fauci is now saying that had Trump listened to the medical experts earlier he could've saved more lives. Fauci was telling people on February 29th that there was nothing to worry about and it posed no threat to the US public at large.
Dr. Fauci is a slippery one, a CYA guy like most people in government
79 musicians, together with mezzo-soprano Elina Garanca and conductor Karel Mark Chichon record from their homes and with their own means a selection from Mahler's Second Symphony, including Organist Angel Hortas live from Jerez Cathedral in Spain.
After the Sabbath, at dawn on the first day of the week, Mary Magdalene and the other Mary went to look at the tomb.
There was a violent earthquake, for an angel of the Lord came down from heaven and, going to the tomb, rolled back the stone and sat on it.
His appearance was like lightning, and his clothes were white as snow.
The guards were so afraid of him that they shook and became like dead men.
The angel said to the women, "Do not be afraid, for I know that you are looking for Jesus, who was crucified.
He is not here; he has risen, just as he said. Come and see the place where he lay.
Then go quickly and tell his disciples: 'He has risen from the dead and is going ahead of you into Galilee. There you will see him.' Now I have told you."
So the women hurried away from the tomb, afraid yet filled with joy, and ran to tell his disciples.
Suddenly Jesus met them. "Greetings," he said. They came to him, clasped his feet and worshiped him.
Then Jesus said to them, "Do not be afraid. Go and tell my brothers to go to Galilee; there they will see me."
COVID's graph in NY is beginning to resemble a particularly bad flu season, a dangerous flu season (although COVID is not a flu virus - Corona viruses are best known to be the viruses of the common cold): Look At How Ridiculously Wrong All The COVID-19 Models Were.
As Scott Adams says every day, models are not information. Models are for persuasion. He knows, because he once had a job making them.
Did the shutdowns help prevent mass catastrophe? We will never really know. I suspect that it did help hospitals manage their flow of difficult cases, which was the purpose. They seem to be managing fairly well. Stress is their job.
You can see where Mao came from. His horrors were just normal before him. Of course, this is historical fiction but Fraser tried to make it feel realistic. Sir Harry, I feel, was the original James Bond.
From Amazon:
Lusting after a clergyman’s wife, smuggling opium to Hong Kong, coupling with an Amazonian woman river pirate, groveling before a ruthless warlord, and becoming the sexual plaything of the most beautiful and evil woman in the world, Sir Harry Flashman, the supreme antihero of the Victorian era, is ready to rise to the occasion to matter what depths of dishonor he must plumb. In this uninhibited and uproarious adventure, Flashman is once again at his irascible best.
Media loves to over-hype things. Yellow journalism. It gets people to watch. And now they have a captive audience which is even better for their income. Many people are watching the boob tube obsessively. Not me.
Parallels 
TARGETED: 
A 64-year-old man
Maggie's HQ Easter Report: Went out early to do some outdoor chores after a morning run. Repairing and painting birdhouses, planting some herbs, shed-cleaning, shrub pruning. Almost stepped on (photo) a Robin's egg in the grass. Sheesh, like a perfect Easter Egg. Then I saw a baby Cottontail bunny hopping away. That is called an Easter Blessing. 