We are a commune of inquiring, skeptical, politically centrist, capitalist, anglophile, traditionalist New England Yankee humans, humanoids, and animals with many interests beyond and above politics. Each of us has had a high-school education (or GED), but all had ADD so didn't pay attention very well, especially the dogs. Each one of us does "try my best to be just like I am," and none of us enjoys working for others, including for Maggie, from whom we receive neither a nickel nor a dime. Freedom from nags, cranks, government, do-gooders, control-freaks and idiots is all that we ask for.
With all of the restaurants and pubs in NYC closed except for take-out, there is just no fun lunch pizza/beer break and after-hike cocktail reward. Nowhere to sit, drink, rest legs, and tell lies.
By fall things should be fine, so we'll aim for Sept/Oct.
In the meantime, everybody should be taking all the long outdoor hikes they can. It's healthy and wholesome even if it doesn't count as "exercise". Learn all the trees, shrubs, birds, rocks, and clouds. Good stuff to know. God's world.
As we posted yesterday, they are probably all wrong. A very few people fall seriously ill (mainly but not entirely the frail elderly). The US has been fortunate, thus far. Hospitals are not overtaxed at all. Things could change, but the virus has been here for months.
Europe seems to have a special problem with this. I do not know why. Blame their government public health and government medical care, or just bad luck? I go for the latter. Disease humbles humanity and always has.
Some large gyms and yoga studios are closing for the duration, but that's no excuse not to continue a daily workout program. There are tons of yoga workouts online too. Home workouts won't be as good, probably, but at best it might help to minimize backsliding.
Most people do not have home gyms full of barbells, dumbells, kettlebells, treadmills and stair machines. I feel home gyms are silly anyway because they lack the spirit that comes from being surrounded by hard-working people who are often in much better shape than onself.
Remember, 5-7 days without your exercise routine can set you back quite a bit. Sad, isn't it?
Some simple ideas for home fitness maintenance, just an hour/day, plus small meals for your immunity (heavy eating is a health stressor):
Cardio
- Do your cardio outdoors on a track (not a road, please). 30-60-second sprints, and jog recoveries. - Find some outdoor stairs and go up and down at your best speeds, or HIIT - Jump rope is great cardio
Strength
- Sets of pushups and pullups - High reps with hand weights (curls, lunges, bent-over rows, floor chest press, had-weight pushbacks, etc etc) - High-rep squats with or without hand weights - Squats + overhead presses with hand weights
What’s the Point of Panic Shopping? With growing coronavirus fears, grocery-store dry goods and bottled water are being bought out — but it’s not really necessary
Do you know how many people were hospitalized in 2009-2010 with the swine flu? Three hundred thousand were hospitalized. So 60 million people infected, 300,000 hospitalized. And nobody even remembers it. And why? Well, because we had a different president. We had a Democrat president by the name of Barack Obama, and the news then was how wonderfully well Obama was handling it, how expertly well Obama was dealing with it.
Unfortunately, there is no scientific formula in existence that answers the question: When is precisely the exact right time to take massive economically and socially disruptive action in dealing with a pandemic?
Whatever you do is wrong. When Trump blocked travel from China, he was zenophobic. When he blocked Europe travel, he was plain stupid. Now the complaint is that he should have done them sooner.
There are four data that the public is interested in for epidemics: Exposure %, mild illness %, truly ill %, and dead %. But % of what? Journalists have no clue about this.
Exposure can be tested, whether ill or not. However, very few people will be tested for exposure if they feel fine or have the sniffles, and it would be absurd (except for a limited study of the general population) to randomly test people. I'd be interested in those results but it's academic.
One epidemiologist said yesterday that the majority of people in the NYC metro area (NY, NJ, CT) and in MA have been exposed. A guess, though. Exposed but not ill is good. You get herd immunity. It is happening now, for sure. Probably in CA too. Most viral spread is probably by people without symptoms who assume they are clear.
My point is that, without a number for people exposed and unexposed within a given general population, you have no denominators. If the only data you have is dead people (not many thus far) divided by sick people getting tested, you have minimally-useful information from a public health standpoint. From a doctor's standpoint, it's useful to know risk of sick to dead even though there is no treatment, other than supportive, for viral pneumonia.
So what is a "death rate" based on in the absence of relevant data, ie deaths/exposed? So the danger of this virus, right now, can not be determined or even estimated. That might be knowable in a few months.
I am not an ID doc, so I'll just tell you what I am doing. I am hoarding nothing. I am taking walks or hikes daily in the sunshine. I wash my hands, but I always did. I am going to the gym and working out (improves immune response). I am not going to church (because it's closed at the moment.) Small meals are my normal anyway (improves immune response and generally healthier).
If you've been exposed (probably) and feel entirely well, you are still infectious but if you aren't coughing or sneezing, it's sort-of ok.
We'll all be fine, unless frail, with preexisting serious ailments, or elderly. Those things apply also to the ordinary seasonal flu. However, there is really no way to insulate them because staff help, family help, etc. can be exposed but without any symptoms. There have been a few cases of otherwise healthy people becoming ill enough to need hospital care, but not many.
As we have said before, the goal is to try to flatten the exposure curve (speed of exposure), not to prevent exposure because that really cannot be done unless you isolate on an island somewhere for 6 months.
Addendum: Flattening the curve of an infection slows the rate of exposure. But how is a "case" defined?
5:1 Therefore, since we are justified by faith, we have peace with God through our Lord Jesus Christ,
5:2 through whom we have obtained access to this grace in which we stand; and we boast in our hope of sharing the glory of God.
5:3 And not only that, but we also boast in our sufferings, knowing that suffering produces endurance,
5:4 and endurance produces character, and character produces hope,
5:5 and hope does not disappoint us, because God's love has been poured into our hearts through the Holy Spirit that has been given to us.
5:6 For while we were still weak, at the right time Christ died for the ungodly.
5:7 Indeed, rarely will anyone die for a righteous person--though perhaps for a good person someone might actually dare to die.
5:8 But God proves his love for us in that while we still were sinners Christ died for us.
5:9 Much more surely then, now that we have been justified by his blood, will we be saved through him from the wrath of God.
5:10 For if while we were enemies, we were reconciled to God through the death of his Son, much more surely, having been reconciled, will we be saved by his life.
5:11 But more than that, we even boast in God through our Lord Jesus Christ, through whom we have now received reconciliation.
Up in Yankeeland you have to start more things indoors because of the short growing season. Just those 2 weeks of germination make food-gardening (aka hobby-gardening) more difficult.
I only bother indoor starting with things I can't buy already grown at Home Depot. This year: Mouse Melons, Ground Cherries, Cucozzi, Heritage Cukes. Other seeds, like pumpkin, beans, root things, I just put in the dirt in May and hope for the best.
"The best" never happens.
Yeah, we love those Mouse Melons in salads. Spicy and crunchy, and they grow like weeds on a fence or trellis.
Sliced right, with mashed taters and sauteed spinach with garlic on the side, can nourish 4 active, daily exercisers very well.
For their thickness, 5-6" minutes on each side, after salt and lots of pepper, and with butter in the pan, on highest (preferably gas) heat, gives good rare meat - a burnt crust and almost raw in the middle. Heaven.
Those ribeyes seem expensive, but when sliced up for four people the cost per person is like MacDonalds.
Epidemics typically fizzle out with warm weather, and through "herd immunity."
The real purpose of precautions is to change the shape of the epidemic curve from a steep up and down to a slower, gradual up and down. That helps with demands on medical care, but does not reduce exposure, or the numbers of people exposed. Viral epidemics can not be stopped, just slowed. Flattening the curve is the purpose of public health.
“If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively."
Generally speaking, good daily workouts reduce appetite and lead to better food choices. That does not prove a cause and effect relationship, though, because people who get on the fitness train focus on whatever their fitness needs are.
For example, people who do strength training daily commonly eat everything in sight whether they want it or not, and try to gain weight, both fat and muscle. For those interested in general fitness, though, not so much.
March is the time to use that general-purpose fertilizer on your flowering shrubs, fruit trees, etc. if you have snow-free ground.
As we remind ourselves most years, the roots get working long before buds appear. Gotta let any March snow or rain to work the fertilizer deep to the roots. It works. Surface fertilizer for those things takes quite a while, maybe weeks, to soak down to where it's needed.
Rediscovering Western Civilization
Opening the books on running a restaurant: 
Up in Yankeeland you have to start more things indoors because of the short growing season. Just those 2 weeks of germination make food-gardening (aka hobby-gardening) more difficult. 
Photo from a reader on Long Island Sound this week. These birds have become common nesters. Cool. They catch outdoor cats too, which is great.
Sliced right, with mashed taters and sauteed spinach with garlic on the side, can nourish 4 active, daily exercisers very well. 
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