Monday, November 10. 2008
Marginal Rev makes the case that slipping housing wealth is the cause of this recession, not banking. A quote: This is truly incredible. Homeowners have lost more than $5 trillion in housing wealth. There is a very well established wealth effect whereby $1 of housing wealth is estimated as leading to 5 to 6 cents of annual consumption. This implies that the loss of wealth to date would cause consumption to fall by $250 billion to $300 billion annually (1.7 percent to 2.0 percent of GDP). If you add in the loss of around $6 trillion in stock wealth, with an estimated wealth effect of 3-4 cents on the dollar, then you get an additional decline of $180 billion to $240 billion in annual consumption (1.2 percent to 1.6 percent of GDP). These are huge falls in consumption that would lead to a very serious recession, like the one we are seeing. This would be predicted even if all our banks were fully solvent and in top flight financial shape. Even the soundest bank does not make loans to borrowers who it does not think can pay the loans back (except during times of irrational exuberance).
Link above. Of course, these things snowball with slipping markets further reducing wealth and causing people and businesses to feel more reluctant to spend. Finally, Springtime eventually returns once marginal and undercapitalized businesses have been swept away, and pricing finds its realistic level. I continue to insist that we folks are in an ordinary recession - but the banking biz is surely in a strange and ugly one. I figure I have lost close to 20% of my net worth thus far, but that's measuring from the peak. One should never measure from peaks, because peaks never last. (Always measure things from historical trends.) Plus I really do not care what my home and land is worth, since I have no plan to leave it, I don't mind the bank holding title to it, I like having the mortgage interest deduction, and my equity line remains open (from which I used $150,000 for restoration work on the barns earlier this year - new roofs, new windows, plumbing, electric, repair rotten siding...). I have more wealth than I had 10 years ago, and that's what counts for feeling secure. I am utterly relaxed about my hefty mortgage and home equity because I know that Obama will pay it for me, unlike that mean George Bush who never offered to pay my bills. And I can't wait to get my government pony. Ponies are cute and, if times get tough, you can eat them.
It's been a while since we posted some of Julian Beever's newer pavement drawings. Here's one. Lots more on continuation page below. 
Continue reading "The Pavement Artist"
 The piece at the WSJ begins thus:
In the Washington mind, there are two kinds of private companies. There are successful if "greedy" corporations, which can always afford to pay more taxes and tolerate more regulation. And then there are the corporate supplicants that need a handout. As the Detroit auto makers are proving, you can go from being the first to the second in the blink of an election. For decades, Congress has never had a second thought as it imposed tighter emissions standards on GM, Ford and Chrysler, denouncing them for making evil SUVs. Yet now that the companies are bleeding cash, and may be heading for bankruptcy, suddenly the shrinking Big Three are the latest candidates for a taxpayer bailout. One $25 billion loan facility has already been signed into law, and Senator Debbie Stabenow (D., Mich.) wants another $25 billion, this time with no strings attached.
Sheesh. So do I. If they get it, they'll buy munis with the money because munis are more profitable than Chevys. Read the whole thing.
 Mankiw and ghosts.
Indeed, ideas do not "exist," nor does wealth, no does the "mind," nor do emotions, nor does math. How much of our lives are driven by nouns that do not exist in any material way? Plato discovered Virtual Reality, and the epistemological message for today is that we all live in a mostly invisible Virtual Reality. It's no wonder we're all half-insane because our minds mess us up, and thus it's no wonder we love things we can touch like wood, metal, books, pretty girls (or boys, as the case may be), and plants. Still, invisible things are often the most important and powerful. Like God. Photo: A Theo gal. She exists materially, but whether you can touch her or not is another subject. That's up to her.
Continue reading "Important things that don't "exist""
Government exists to protect us from each other. Where government has gone beyond its limits is in deciding to protect us from ourselves. Ronald Reagan
h/t, Dr. Sanity (who is taking a blogging break): 
Last week, a friend recommended this Lumix (Panasonic) camera to me. Also last week, Insty recommended another Lumix, and Samiz posted on the Lumix G-1. Something must be going right at Lumix. But not so with the US automakers. Dems press for auto rescue for GM and Chrysler. You can call it stupid, but it's not stupid - it's political. Surber says: "...if failure is going to be rewarded, that is what you are going to get." (Kudlow commented last week that these aren't auto manufacturers: they are pension and health care companies that occasionally make a car or two.) Another failing biz: carbon emission rights, which are a joke anyway. Mr. Free Market presents a better idea: Carbon Debits! Unfortunate phrasing: "...ready to take power and begin to rule" Good grief. Where have all the bigots gone? John Tierney We have joked about having our own home-made nuke generator in the farm basement, but something similar is actually in the works. This sure beats windmills. Do our current methods of nominating national candidates make sense? I have never thought they did. James Caesar: The Presidential Nominating Mess (h/t, No Left Turns). One quote: If blame must be assigned, a portion of it must go to the founders for instituting a system that never fully succeeded in managing the problem. But it was certainly not for want of trying. The Constitution, contrary to popular impression, created not three but four national institutions: the presidency, the Congress, the Supreme Court, and the presidential selection system (centered on the Electoral College). The question of presidential selection was just that important to the founders, and they created a system that was meant to institutionalize the process from start to finish—from the gathering and winnowing phase up through the final election. The Constitution, in other words, was intended to control "nominating" as well as electing: the electors, meeting in their respective states, would vote for two people for president (at least one of whom had to come from another state), thus nominating and electing at the same time. When the votes were collected and opened on the floor of the House of Representatives, the winner (if he had a majority) would become president, and the runner—up would become vice president. The nominating plan, as matters turned out, worked as intended only when there was no real need for it.
Sunday, November 9. 2008
 A slightly emotional message, which arrived over the transom. I will not say what friend wrote this thing, but I think they got it off their chest by doing so. Very therapeutic for them:
While the election results admittedly make it difficult, I am generally an optimist, and I'm not changing my stripes now. Obama has truly awful, awful ideas for our country, but I do not believe even he can ruin it. So here's what I feel good about right now: The next time someone - perhaps looking up from their Sunday New York Times - tries to tell you we live in a pervasively racist society, you can tell them to just shut the f*** up. Since their services are no longer required, we can send Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson off to their long-overdue retirements, perhaps to Charlie Rangel's place in the Dominican Republic. While we're at it, can we all decide that if blacks can rise to the presidency, it follows that we no longer need affirmative action? Time to put it in the ground. The constructionists on the Supreme Court should be able to hold out another four years before they retire. We wish them the best of health. We won't have to spend four years defending John McCain. Let's face it, he was a crummy candidate who wilted on most issues important to conservatives. It would have been four painful years followed by a lay-up election for...Obama or Hillary. With the economy in the tank, Obama may have somewhat limited flexibility. His plans to turn us into Finland may have to wait. Jimmy Carter was a painful experience, but he gave us (cue heavenly choir music) Ronald Reagan. Will Obama give us a Bobby Jindal? Tim Pawlenty? Rudy? We have a deep bench. Start thinking ahead now. Since the Democrats control both houses and the White House, there will be no one else to blame when they screw up, which is as inevitable as the sun rising tomorrow. While they will try to pin any problems on George Bush for at least the next millennia, the people will know better. The media has now officially been "outed" as in the tank for the Democrat Party. Even liberals know it. MSM credibility has never been so low. The New York Times was just demoted to junk bond status by the ratings agencies. Finally, let's be happy that it's finally just over.
I guess that covers most of it. Go in peace.
Our friend Sipp's post inspired this contest. Winners receive a year's free online subscription to Maggie's Farm, with a special Free Bonus of unlimited commenting privileges. I am sure that all would agree that the famous Florida development retirement community ticky-tacky pressboard Disney World for Viagrified Republican golfers, The Villages (pictured below), could have been named far more creatively, like The Greens at Paradise, or The Coffins at Happy Acres. 
So we invite our readers to put on their Marketing Hats and come up with some names for American developments yet to be built. Punsters welcome. I'll give it a lame start: The Lakes at Dripping Springs
The Verandas at Mosquito Point Lighthouse Point
The Niches at Holiday Harbor
The Views at Hillcrest Swamp Vale
The Breezes at Landfill Hillview Corners
The Cottages at Gator Swamp Rabbit Hollow
The Links at Dark Harbor Sunny Harbor
The Anchorages at Stormy Point Pleasant Bay
Ye Barnes at Ye Olde Farme Villagee (for AVI)
Wistful Vista at Chicken Neck Creek Mapleview River
The Preserve at Blueberry Hill - or The Hills at Blueberry Preserves?
Sweet Meadows at Beaver View Valley
 Don't get the wrong idea: Racism still a big problem in America claims advocacy industry. But I was told...oh, nevermind. Whenever I say "But I was told...," I feel like Milton in Office Space.
Big Pumas. I did not know they grew that large. Scary, but I think it tends to be the foolish young ones that mistake hikers for deer, and jump down with their teeth in the back of your neck and rip your head off. Inverting the supply curve on health care I took this little test and came out right next to Milton Friedman. (h/t, Villainous) The Magical Thinking Watch OK, I can get this link post up to Three Miltons, because I happen to be about 1/3 of the way through Anna Beer's new Milton bio, which, if you overlook the rather minor and easily-overlooked touches of pomo Nouveau Lit Crit BS, is quite absorbing and well-worth the read. Lots of quotes from his stuff, and it offers a good picture of the times. Thanks to the BD pup for finding that book for me.
Matthew 25: 1-13 1Then shall the kingdom of heaven be likened unto ten virgins, which took their lamps, and went forth to meet the bridegroom. 2And five of them were wise, and five were foolish. 3They that were foolish took their lamps, and took no oil with them: 4But the wise took oil in their vessels with their lamps. 5While the bridegroom tarried, they all slumbered and slept. 6And at midnight there was a cry made, Behold, the bridegroom cometh; go ye out to meet him. 7Then all those virgins arose, and trimmed their lamps. 8And the foolish said unto the wise, Give us of your oil; for our lamps are gone out. 9But the wise answered, saying, Not so; lest there be not enough for us and you: but go ye rather to them that sell, and buy for yourselves. 10And while they went to buy, the bridegroom came; and they that were ready went in with him to the marriage: and the door was shut. 11Afterward came also the other virgins, saying, Lord, Lord, open to us. 12But he answered and said, Verily I say unto you, I know you not. 13Watch therefore, for ye know neither the day nor the hour wherein the Son of man cometh.
Saturday, November 8. 2008
 We Warned Ya #1: Dems target your 401-K. Do they really want to do that? Peoples' 401-Ks are like Social Security to them. Correction - I should say they are almost sacred to them.
A post-racial election? LaShawn. Steyn wonders whether America turned Left - or turned "cool." Aw shucks. We love to be loved. Don't we all? Sure enough, gun sales are through the roof Palin: my critics are jerks. Right on, Sarah. They aren't gentlemen, either. I think you're swell. What are Mount Shasta's glaciers a proxy for? A nation hopes for another FDR? Save Us, Dear Leader! Speak for yourself, NYT. That's the last thing in the world I want. Yes, we have another recession. Recessions occur on a regular basis, and wash away weak businesses. That's no excuse for the infantile hystrionics. Maybe the NYT wants a bailout. I listened to Kudlow on the wireless while I was cleaning the basement this morning. He made a compelling case for letting GM go bankrupt as a way to emerge smaller and stronger. Honda, Toyota, and VW are eating their lunch because they run leaner and smarter. I agree with Larry that routinely rescuing failing businesses is not a role of government. Businesses must fail, consolidate, change. Banking is different. How to invent names for new developments, like: The Preserve at Woodstone
The Village at Stonewoods.
The Preserve at Woodstone Village
The Village at Stonecrest
The Preserve at Woodcrest Plantation (I like the idea of Ye Olde Village at Seacrest Heights Plantation. You could sell it in Paramus, right next to the mall: 1 BR condos, only $375,000 with no down payment and a view of Nordstrom's. Hmmm - this could be a good naming contest.)
 Bacon recipes are going around. It must be the time of year. For example, Apple Bacon Pie.
And how about this Texas Tommy? Thank God the hot dog is Kosher. Here's all you need to know about how bacon is made. Real chefs make their own. Some folks save their bacon grease in the freezer, to cooks greens in. I should start doing that. Greens without grease are rabbit food.
"Ah, you fool, it's the educated reader who can be gulled. All of our difficulty comes with the others. When did you read of a workman who believes the papers?...But the educated public, who read the highbrow weeklies, don't need reconditioning. They're alright already. They'll believe anything." The head of the secret police in CS Lewis' That Hideous Strength, as quoted in a piece by AVI
Friday, November 7. 2008
The next big rain will knock the remaining autumn leaves down. Here's where we are today: 
When a candidate or party loses an election, the tendency is to over-read it and to self-scrutinize, sometimes to a fault. When they win, the tendency is to over-read it and not self-scrutinize enough. Often, the process devolves into a circular firing squad for the former, and a circle jerk for the latter. We try to avoid both of those unseemly activities. These election thoughts by guest poster Bruce Kesler: Jon Henke, over at The New Right blog, says “Republicans deserved to lose.” His argument parallels mine in Appearances and Mood that “it is among conservatives that reform must come….Rank and file conservatives mostly looked to this inadequate leadership instead of to ourselves to step forward and fight.” Henke writes: The problem is a movement that plays small-ball and cedes responsibility for infrastructure to business interests, leadership that rewards those who make friends rather than waves, an entrenched Party and Movement support system that mostly supports itself, an echo chamber that has rotted our intellect, a grassroots that is ill-equipped to shape the Republican Party, and a Republican Party that has replaced strategy with tactics, substance with marketing. From there it’s downhill in the Comments on Henke’s post, as the argument devolves into whether the Party should be with libertarians or traditionalists, economic or social conservatives, Hispanics or Southerners, and so forth. In other words, the arguments are for further splitting asunder the Reagan coalition. Insane. Instead, the discussion should be on how to not only rebuild the Reagan coalition but how to enlarge it. There were five primary slippages in Republican votes during this election. The younger voters who are the children of liberal Boomers came of age and along with their educated parents went Obama. The working middle class suffered additional economic loss on top of their struggles with taxes, tuition, mortgages, car payments and just getting by. The staunch conservatives didn’t see McCain doing much more for their priorities other than not surrendering in Iraq. The aspiring poor and working class didn’t see any vision presented by McCain of support for getting ahead. The large business interests, most entwined with government programs, either were inactive or shifted their donations to Democrats promising or controlling programs that would enrich them. All this was exacerbated by the major media’s evasion of examining Obama’s record and promises, indeed his lack of the former and illusory nature of the latter, but concentration of nitpicking McCain and Palin.
Continue reading "Targets for Republicans"
Now the hedge fund and predatory lender Cerberus wants a bail-out? Gimme a break. I want a bail-out too, to pay my dental bills. And my mortgage and gas, please.
Change? This is loony. When volunteering becomes compulsory, it's not volunteering any more, is it? Same difference between charity and taxes. Same as the draft. Plus, where I live, there are more volunteers than there are things to do. The chance to teach English to Hispanics has a long waiting list, and the Red Cross says "We'll call you if we need you." They have to form committees to try to "identify unmet needs." In other words, well-intentioned housewives and retired guys have to make up things to do because everybody who wants "help" already gets more than they can handle, and most New England folks seem too proud to accept help anyway. The old culture dies hard. Are people really so helpless in America that they need pimply high-schoolers or condescending do-gooder college kids - who know nothing at all about life - to "help" them? I very much doubt it. But I don't know anybody who isn't happy to cash a check or to take a freebie from the gummint to buy a new iPod. People are always happy to accept cash from "the gummint," because it doesn't feel so much like you're ripping off your neighbor. A Comment from our News Junkie: I have soured on do-gooderism. I have been to Katrina, to Appalachia, to NYC (where I now live), to Haiti and to Africa over the years with church groups, and every time I went the locals drank wine or moonshine or some kind of African hootch, and smoked in lawn chairs or lounging in the grass while telling jokes while we "helped." In Africa, the guys took occasional drinking breaks to visit the local whorehouse while we supposedly did stuff "for them." It's humiliating to all concerned, as if people were children; embarassing to the recipients and to the doers. Never saw anybody local ever offer to do so much as to pick up a hammer, a shovel, or a mop. I'm done with that approach to virtuousness. People have to want to help themselves, or there is not a damn thing you can do. "Wanting to help" is pure social imperialism of the most soft-headed sort. I once helped build a church building in Africa, and now feel foolish about it because a church is not a building - it's people. The building was insignificant except when it rained. They could have built a better one, better suited to their area, with poles and thatch (and much more cheaply) in a few days if they felt like it. What we built will no doubt be attacked by termites and fall down. Live and learn. What people want is cash to spend the way they want to.
 I am hunting tomorrow. What about you? I'm taking the train up tonight. A friend got us permission to hunt some old overgrown farms in Dutchess County (NY). Grouse have been scarce this year and, rightly or wrongly, I blame the Coyotes. It's very mature to always blame somebody or something in life. But "how is my new job in NYC?," I hear you asking. Great. They pay me more than I deserve, and we thrive on chaos! It would be almost perfect, except no tobacco in the pubs is the main bummer, thanks to Nanny Bloomberg. Without tobacco, one tends to drink more...and nowhere in America are there more lovely, sexy, intelligent, well-eddicated, savvy, sophisticated, worldly, and put-together young females to make a huntin' and fishin' country boy like me nervous, and to make a rusticated ass of himself in front of.
This is what "unity" looks like: Rahm Emmanuel and his brass ones. The appointment of the combative Emmanuel is a declaration of war, and the Dems much prefer war against their fellow disagreeing Americans than they do against foreign enemies. Welcome to "Peace and Love." The toxic pipeline from China Good Texas snake photos Are colleges failure factories? Maine choses cheap beer over health-care taxes. Makes sense to me. For how many months will Europe love us this time? Jules What are fewer big storms evidence of? Sowell on affirmative action and gay marriage Rove on Why Obama won. Rove is a smart guy, but I think Krauthammer nailed it. The Idea of Change in American politics: Meaningful concept or Empty Promise? McClay Most rich people voted for Obama Nice little post-election rant from New England Repub A quote from a slightly crude but amusing rant from Ace: It's as if a great weight has been lifted off of our collective, white, redneck shoulders. I feel so light now. I can almost see the unicorns prancing in my backyard with little silver butterflies flitting from flower to flower.
I see them too, Ace. Pretty pink ponies and psychedelic day-glo butterflies playing out my back door among the pretty pretty orange flowers, and life is groovy and beautiful again, just like at Woodstock. But hey, wait a minute - don't Bogart that joint, my friend... Mark Twain on politics. Vanderleun introduces it thus: With the Presidential election finally behind us, and the next at least a week away, I am the third most relieved man in America. The second most relieved man in America would be John McCain. The first most relieved man in America? That would be George W. Bush. In the meantime, since I think it best to let the predictable waves of "Yea!," "Congratulations!," "We did it to ourselves," and "I told you that bitch was crazy" wash out of the bloodstream, I shall let Mark Twain's immortal insights from 1901 speak. Pay attention. There will be a test. Hell, there will be around 500 tests.
Liberals want to bring back the so-called "Fairness Doctrine" as their plan to put talk radio out of business. How would it do that? Because every subject has 30 different views on it. I doubt that the Dems would wish to extend it to The Daily Kos or to Maggie's, but who knows? It always amuses me how Liberals cannot tolerate dissent. Let's all rely on NPR and become one beautiful, happy family of group-thinking "sensitive, caring" parasites. Anyway, in honor of the Dems' and especially Chuckie Shumer's desire to reinstate the Fairness Doctine, and out of consideration for our lady readers who feel that our Cheesecake/Beefcake ratio is way off target, we offer these: Navy SEAL in training emerges from the ocean: 
In training, but not a Navy SEAL: 
Thursday, November 6. 2008
Political scientists love to discuss this topic. The short answer is simple, though: If they vote for my guy, they're rational - and vice-versa. Political scientists seem to think that voters should be more rational. Of course, neither voting nor politics are entirely rational, nor should they be. Life is too complex for logic, and non-rational doesn't mean stupid. The subject is discussed in Irrational Electorate by Larry Bartels, in Wilson Quarterly.
“It cannot be emphasized too clearly and too often that this nation was founded, not by religionists, but by Christians; not on religion, but on the gospel of Jesus Christ. For this very reason, peoples of other faiths have been afforded asylum, prosperity, and freedom of worship here.” Patrick Henry, May 1765 Speech to the House of Burgesses
It has begun. Russia has decided to bypass the lame duck administration of “W” and made its first challenge to “H”. Note below that they had written two speeches for delivery the day after the election, depending on whether the internationally stronger or weaker candidate won. From Stratfor:
Russian President Dmitri Medvedev gave his long-awaited first State of the State address (the equivalent of the U.S. president’s State of the Union address) on Nov. 5. The speech was much more than a nationalist appeal liberally sprinkled with Soviet-era rhetoric; it was a declaration of Russia’s return to the ranks of the world’s great powers. In effect, Medvedev not only tossed the gauntlet for Russia’s rivals in the West, but he also is not waiting around to see how they respond. It must be understood that Medvedev — while he is certainly coming into his own under the sponsorship of his mentor, former president and current Prime Minister Vladimir Putin –- did not write this speech himself. The author is the Kremlin’s gray cardinal, Vladislav Surkov, who has played the role of backroom dealer, enforcer, planner and puppet master for Putin for most of the past eight years. Surkov does not control Putin — far from it -– but in many ways is the brains behind much of what happens in the Kremlin these days. It was Surkov who recommended that Medvedev’s speech, originally scheduled for Oct. 23, be postponed. Ostensibly, the delay was meant to allow Russia more time to deal with its deepening financial crisis, but in reality, Surkov wanted to know which presidential candidate the Americans were going to elect. The speech was already written. In fact, according to Stratfor sources, two speeches had been written — one for each possible outcome of the U.S. election. In waiting for a clear picture on whom Moscow would be dealing with in Washington, Russia underscored the central role the United States plays in the international system, and that Moscow views Washington as its main counterweight.
International affairs are still a giant chess game. We hope the O knows how to play.
A quote from Robert Samuelson's The Poor aren't Poor Because Rich are Rich: Judged only by economic inequality, the financial crisis is a godsend. It will probably narrow the gap — though still vast — between the rich and everybody else. But what good will that do? Economic inequality also declined in the Great Depression. The country wasn't better off. By and large, the poor aren't poor because the rich are rich. They're usually poor for their own reasons: family breakdown, low skills, destructive personal habits and plain bad luck. The presumption implicit in the criticism of growing economic inequality is that society's income is a given and, if the rich have less, others will have more. Up to a point, that's true. The government already redistributes much income, often for the good. During the boom years, companies might have been less lavish with top executives and slightly more generous to other workers or shareholders. Some new fortunes stem from self-dealing and financial razzle-dazzle, not the creation of real economic value. It's just desserts that some of this wealth has evaporated. But the redistributionist argument is at best a half-truth. The larger truth is that much of the income of the rich and well-to-do comes from what they do. If they stop doing it, then the income and wealth vanish. No one gets it. It can't be redistributed because it doesn't exist. Everyone's poorer.
Read the whole thing. Of course, the whole Lefty populist mantra about "corporate greed" and "sharing" only appeals to economic illiterates, but America and the world have plenty of those. It's difficult to create wealth if you are economically illiterate, so your own envy or greed will make you want to take it away from somebody else who created it with their creativity, effort, skill and drive. The fallacy is the one we discuss so often: the notion that wealth is a zero-sum game. Wealth, as Americans understand better than most of the world does, is an infinitely-expandable thing. All it takes is peoples' desire and creative spirit. Unlike material things, wealth is created from thin air - and wealth is destroyed leaving no residue. Speaking of which, we were too caught up in the election flurry to post this video of Dem. Rep. Jim Moran discussing his thoughts on wealth redistribution. It's populist, socialistic - and either as ignorant as hell or manipulative as hell. Who does he think "owns" corporations? 2/3 of Americans "own" the corporations via being shareholders and bondholders. I'd like to see it advance to 100%.
|
