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Maggie's FarmWe are a commune of inquiring, skeptical, politically centrist, capitalist, anglophile, traditionalist New England Yankee humans, humanoids, and animals with many interests beyond and above politics. Each of us has had a high-school education (or GED), but all had ADD so didn't pay attention very well, especially the dogs. Each one of us does "try my best to be just like I am," and none of us enjoys working for others, including for Maggie, from whom we receive neither a nickel nor a dime. Freedom from nags, cranks, government, do-gooders, control-freaks and idiots is all that we ask for. |
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Sunday, March 15. 2020The DC-3: Planes That Changed the WorldWhy you can't believe illness statistics right now
Exposure can be tested, whether ill or not. However, very few people will be tested for exposure if they feel fine or have the sniffles, and it would be absurd (except for a limited study of the general population) to randomly test people. I'd be interested in those results but it's academic. One epidemiologist said yesterday that the majority of people in the NYC metro area (NY, NJ, CT) and in MA have been exposed. A guess, though. Exposed but not ill is good. You get herd immunity. It is happening now, for sure. Probably in CA too. Most viral spread is probably by people without symptoms who assume they are clear. My point is that, without a number for people exposed and unexposed within a given general population, you have no denominators. If the only data you have is dead people (not many thus far) divided by sick people getting tested, you have minimally-useful information from a public health standpoint. From a doctor's standpoint, it's useful to know risk of sick to dead even though there is no treatment, other than supportive, for viral pneumonia. So what is a "death rate" based on in the absence of relevant data, ie deaths/exposed? So the danger of this virus, right now, can not be determined or even estimated. That might be knowable in a few months. I am not an ID doc, so I'll just tell you what I am doing. I am hoarding nothing. I am taking walks or hikes daily in the sunshine. I wash my hands, but I always did. I am going to the gym and working out (improves immune response). I am not going to church (because it's closed at the moment.) Small meals are my normal anyway (improves immune response and generally healthier). If you've been exposed (probably) and feel entirely well, you are still infectious but if you aren't coughing or sneezing, it's sort-of ok. We'll all be fine, unless frail, with preexisting serious ailments, or elderly. Those things apply also to the ordinary seasonal flu. However, there is really no way to insulate them because staff help, family help, etc. can be exposed but without any symptoms. There have been a few cases of otherwise healthy people becoming ill enough to need hospital care, but not many. Please correct my thinking if I am in error. This makes sense to me: Coronavirus going to hit its peak and start falling sooner than you think. As we have said before, the goal is to try to flatten the exposure curve (speed of exposure), not to prevent exposure because that really cannot be done unless you isolate on an island somewhere for 6 months. Addendum: Flattening the curve of an infection slows the rate of exposure. But how is a "case" defined?
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From today's LectionaryRomans 5:1-11 5:1 Therefore, since we are justified by faith, we have peace with God through our Lord Jesus Christ, 5:2 through whom we have obtained access to this grace in which we stand; and we boast in our hope of sharing the glory of God. 5:3 And not only that, but we also boast in our sufferings, knowing that suffering produces endurance, 5:4 and endurance produces character, and character produces hope, 5:5 and hope does not disappoint us, because God's love has been poured into our hearts through the Holy Spirit that has been given to us. 5:6 For while we were still weak, at the right time Christ died for the ungodly. 5:7 Indeed, rarely will anyone die for a righteous person--though perhaps for a good person someone might actually dare to die. 5:8 But God proves his love for us in that while we still were sinners Christ died for us. 5:9 Much more surely then, now that we have been justified by his blood, will we be saved through him from the wrath of God. 5:10 For if while we were enemies, we were reconciled to God through the death of his Son, much more surely, having been reconciled, will we be saved by his life. 5:11 But more than that, we even boast in God through our Lord Jesus Christ, through whom we have now received reconciliation. When Epidemics Wreaked Havoc in AmericaDeadly infectious diseases were once common in the U.S., until science conquered them. In today’s crisis, it’s worth recalling those celebrated victories.
Saturday, March 14. 2020Indoor seed time I only bother indoor starting with things I can't buy already grown at Home Depot. This year: Mouse Melons, Ground Cherries, Cucozzi, Heritage Cukes. Other seeds, like pumpkin, beans, root things, I just put in the dirt in May and hope for the best. "The best" never happens. Yeah, we love those Mouse Melons in salads. Spicy and crunchy, and they grow like weeds on a fence or trellis.
More on The NYT admitting its error
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Saturday morning links
'Dead Sea Scrolls' at the Museum of the Bible are all forgeries I’ve prescribed opioids to patients. And I’m not a villain. THE GREAT TOILET PAPER PANDEMIC OF 2020 (AND TWIP PREVIEW) "We must seize the means of toilet paper production" A Tale Of Two Pandemics: Media Downplayed Swine Flu Outbreak Under Obama Fauci: No Seriously, The Travel Restrictions Are Exactly What We Need To Flatten The COVID-19 Curve; WHO Confirms Europe As New “Epicenter” Dem Rep. Pressley Blames Americans ‘Racism And Xenophobia’ For Drop In Business At Chinese Restaurants… Panic and Paid Leave Dr. Fauci Cautions Against a Hyped-Up 75-150 Million Coronavirus Case Estimate The NY Times Issues A Long-Overdue Correction To The 1619 Project UCLA caves to striking students, only to be met with more backlash Give an inch and they'll take a mile Higher education’s mandatory political participation Police ‘Not Pursuing Criminal Charges’ Against Andrew Gillum After He Was Found in Miami Hotel Room with Bags of Crystal Meth State climate lawsuits are all about ignoring legislature to get cash stream "The Biden 2020 campaign isn’t about following its nominal leader, or even listening to him; it’s about the party pushing him over the line collectively..." No it is not. It's about trying to save the House. Biden goes all in on corona virus Biden’s Coronavirus Adviser Wants to Die at 75 But 75 is the new 60, right? CNN: In speech, Biden shows how a normal president responds in crisis UK's Coronavirus Strategy: Just Let It Happen And Hope For Herd Immunity Makes sense, but not political sense Mayor Of Florence Encouraged Italians To "Hug A Chinese" Before Pandemic Hit What??? Friday, March 13. 2020One Costco ribeye
For their thickness, 5-6" minutes on each side, after salt and lots of pepper, and with butter in the pan, on highest (preferably gas) heat, gives good rare meat - a burnt crust and almost raw in the middle. Heaven. Those ribeyes seem expensive, but when sliced up for four people the cost per person is like MacDonalds. Our K–12 students need guidance out of ignorance.Epidemics
The real purpose of precautions is to change the shape of the epidemic curve from a steep up and down to a slower, gradual up and down. That helps with demands on medical care, but does not reduce exposure, or the numbers of people exposed. Viral epidemics can not be stopped, just slowed. Flattening the curve is the purpose of public health. Thus far, the Covid-19 has not been very dangerous compared with the ordinary flu for those under 70. We'll know in the next two or three weeks as the curve peaks, and begins to decline in the US.
Friday morning links
Smallest dinosaur found trapped in 100-million-year-old amber - A new species of dinosaur is described for the first time from an exquisitely preserved (and incredibly small) skull. Never Again: Inside the life of a traditional American mother, 1941 Markets: Volatility by Any Other Name.As the Dow Jones Industrial Average enters bear market territory—and the S&P 500 flirts with it—it is worth remembering the name given to a pullback doesn’t determine returns from here. ‘Grooming’: Washington passes far-left sex ed plan promoting promiscuity, LGBT, abortion British Woman Sues Medical Center For Allowing Her To “Transition” Her Gender Statement from Assistant Attorney General Commending House Judiciary Committee’s Work to Clarify Criminalization of Female Genital Mutilation Was California’s Bullet Train Even More Of A Corrupt Mess Than We Thought? California bullet train project employees told to ‘shut up’ about project woes: report Watch Why People Are 'Fleeing California' – It Ain't Pretty EPA Chief Andrew Wheeler Rolls Back His Agency’s Overreach Remembering the Swine Flu The Media-Induced Coronavirus Panic Is Worse Than The Disease VDH: The Great Coronavirus War Is upon Us CNN Panel Discusses Coronavirus as Democrat Path to White House Closing Europe for 30 days: The horror. But most cases are coming from Europe Why Liberals Can't Comprehend Progress in Trump's America Thursday, March 12. 2020Social justice at the University of TexasWhen you read the details, it's remarkable: The University of Texas Succumbs to the ‘Social Justice’ Pandemic
Posted by The News Junkie
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14:33
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Panic does nobody any good
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Thursday morning links Honolulu, A City Which Can’t Survive Without Fossil Fuels, Sues Fossil Fuels Companies Mara Gay: The Backlash To My Math Mistake Was Racist Really? The white guy made the mistake. By the way, that's arithmetic. US: New border wall blocks 90% of illegal crossings, up from just 10% Trump passes coronavirus test with flying colors First, he did too little. Now he does too much? Democrats respond to Trump's Oval address with vicious partisan rancor Hinderaker: Perhaps, in years to come, coronavirus may be viewed as a tipping point on the way to a world of social isolation. Doesn't work for me. I like human contact. MR: How big a hit will the U.S. economy take?: two scenarios Mueller Gang Threatened to Throw General Flynn and His Son in Solitary Confinement If He Didn’t Plead Guilty to Lying to FBI The Democratic Party Is Wounded and Dangerous Democrats: A Disaster for African Americans. How the Left exploits the victimhood narrative and devastates a community. Putin moves to keep power through 2036 — when he’ll have ruined Russia Hybrid Sovereignty in Lebanon – How Can the U.S. Avoid a 'Catch 22'? The bad virus: Italy is full of old people Wednesday, March 11. 2020How exercise affects food choices
For example, people who do strength training daily commonly eat everything in sight whether they want it or not, and try to gain weight, both fat and muscle. For those interested in general fitness, though, not so much. NYT (sorry): How exercise can affect our food choices and our weight. Feeding the roots in YankeelandMarch is the time to use that general-purpose fertilizer on your flowering shrubs, fruit trees, etc. if you have snow-free ground. As we remind ourselves most years, the roots get working long before buds appear. Gotta let any March snow or rain to work the fertilizer deep to the roots. It works. Surface fertilizer for those things takes quite a while, maybe weeks, to soak down to where it's needed. More shrubbery: Trim tabs
This is about trim tabs and the Boeing 737 Max problems, "This aircraft should not have been built":
Posted by The News Junkie
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Wednesday morning links
Widow of Steve Jobs preaches it's 'wrong' to accumulate wealth CA Gov. Newsom has Praise for Trump Over Handling of Coronavirus Dr. Drew Pinsky Slams Media For Inciting Coronavirus ‘Panic’ 'No Copays, No Surprise Charges': Pence Declares Insurers Have Agreed To Cover Coronavirus Costs Crushing the Coronavirus Curve Dr. Oz Argues Coronavirus Numbers from Korea Show Lower Death Rate – May Be No Worse than Common Flu FACT CHECK: Hillary Clinton Falsely Claims Credit for Defeating SARS Epidemic She wasn't even there The progressive narrative on homelessness has always been wrong—and new data undermine it further. Inside the FBI's 218 days that changed Trump's political world Choosing Not to Vote
" Democrats such as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez aren’t opposed to school choice. They’re opposed to school choice for other people’s children." Yale Psychiatrist Who Has Repeatedly Called Trump Mentally Unfit Refuses to Diagnose Biden Three reasons Joe Biden will never be president WaPo, MSNBC Give Biden New Instructions on How to Address Burisma On the team GOP approval rises, Democrats fall post-impeachment in Gallup poll Italy Suspends Mortgage Payments, Businesses Dying As Panicked Residents Hoard Food Europe Under Siege - Barbarians are storming the gates, but Europeans still won’t pull in the welcome mat. Tuesday, March 10. 2020Brief history of gladiatorial spectaclesThunderstruck, with a cello duelThe Biden problemSacrificial lamb? Cornpop for President.
Be Afraid: Not of the virus but of the panic
Posted by The News Junkie
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14:53
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Tuesday morning links
The Stock Market Is Tanking. Do Nothing. Timing the market is a game for professionals, not amateurs. And most professionals are terrible at it too. "There Is No Liquidity" - Market Paralyzed As FRA/OIS Explodes Algos now rule the markets The archaeology of Armageddon - After a century of digging, archaeologists are still tantalized by the secrets of the 7,000-year-old city of Megiddo. The Virus and the Economy - Widespread quarantines and shutdowns of industries have human costs, too. Not everybody can "work from home" Syracuse U. protesters promise ‘escalation’ if officials don’t acknowledge ‘white supremacy’ As Top Historians Ring Alarm Bells About NYT’s 1619 Project, Defiant Public Schools Refuse To Answer Questions Health Care Is a Right Only if Doctors Surrender Theirs VDH: California Is a Cruel Medieval State. The Golden State has become a cruel and unusual place because callousness and narcissism were redefined as caring and compassion. Major Crimes in New York City Spike 22 Percent in February and Cops Blame New Bail Law Here’s How Eric Holder Helped the Obama Administration Transform the Democratic Party into a Party of Thugs MC: The Real New York Times, Or A Parody? Why Do the 2020 Democrats Lie About Everything? Nancy Pelosi: ‘Civilization as We Know It Is At Stake’ In The 2020 Presidential Election Bernie Sanders is Funded by the Wealthiest Zip Codes in America Elizabeth Warren's Former Staffers Insult the Media For Not "Actively Supporting" Warren's Campaign But they did What Is Bloomberg Thinking? The Spread Of COVID-19 In Iran May Be Far Worse Than Reported Virus report from Italy Greek Troops Open Fire on Refugees While Vigilantes Attack Aid Workers and the Media Ireland Cancels All St. Patrick's Day Parades Amid Virus Fears
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