Wednesday, August 20. 2008
 In the aftermath of the Edwards scandal, I was considering writing a bit about male sexuality, about how it is part of male biology to desire to spread their seed far and wide, into every pretty thing they see. To win, to possess, and to enjoy.
That drive is just one more thing that makes life difficult for men: these temptations are extremely difficult to resist. Much stronger issue for guys than for gals - but the desire is not absent in gals either. But that is not exactly new information. Nor is it new information that couples make attachment committments to each other for rational as well as emotional reasons, or that humans have religion-guided consciences that elevate them a little bit above monkeys. Having realized I had nothing new to add to the subject, I'll just post this quote from Ben Stein: I am sorry that John Edwards had an affair with a campaign worker. But I am not surprised. Men like to have affairs. Men like to have sex with new women. That's just how men are and always have been.
I am not surprised that a major Presidential candidate and former V.P. nominee of a major party had an affair. Politicians are men and they have all of the yearnings and drives that other men have. They do not check their flaws and essential elements at the Capitol cloakroom.
Editor: Since we are exposing today the earth-shattering fact that men are powerfully attracted to charming and seductive females, I thought that Theo image might help drive the point home.
Tuesday, August 19. 2008
 I've given lots of discs as presents over the years, and there's no question having a customized label adds to the enjoyment. And especially when it's a kid and you've got their name right there on the disc in big bright neon lights fonts. And if they're discs of your home movies, how classy would it be to have small pics from the various vacations and birthdays printed on the disc?
If you've ever tried the stick-on labels, you know what a nightmare they are to work with. Get off by the tiniest bit while sticking it on and you're burning a new disc and printing a new label for Round 2.
And that 'LightScribe' routine, where it etches the text on the top of the disc, is seriously ridiculous. Like a lot of people, I got suckered into it — although I will admit that if you hold up the disc just so, and catch the light just right, you actually can read what's etched on the disc — kind of.
So what's the answer? Well, now that I've got you on the edge of your seat with this riveting question, you'll just have to...
Continue reading "Doc's Computin' Tips: Disc labeling"
Monday, August 18. 2008
 I am reading one of those books that I've heard about on and off all my life, but never read: Van Wyck Brook's 1937 The Flowering of New England: 1815-1865.
While the book is mainly about the blossoming of American scholarship and literature, I would have to rank the book as a piece of literature itself. Wonderful stuff. It's not literary history - it's history, told in an engaging and often humorous way. The parts about the remarkable Daniel Webster are hilarious, as are the bits about one of America's first world-renowned eccentric geniuses, Nathaniel Bowditch. Brooks was one of those old-fashioned scholar-writers who knew everything about everything.
Sunday, August 17. 2008
A reader sent in this photo of an Eastern American Toad (Bufo Americanus) in the garden this past weekend. Everybody enjoys stumbling upon these goofy critters, which tend to be active at night (when the sun will not dry them out) or during rain. If find it remarkable how often they can be found far from any pools or ponds in which to breed. They travel. I remember rainy days in Cape Cod when the baby toads had completed their magical transformation from tadpole to tiny (1/2") toads in August in such numbers that you could hardly find a place to put your foot, like Red Efts on cloudy days in the Berkshires. The only thing I know that likes to eat them is the Hognose Snake, and I've never seen one of them. Scientificalistical experts have proven (the debate is over) that if you touch a toad, you will get warts, but if you are a girl, and kiss one, it will turn into a Handsome Prince (but you will get warts all over your face). We have tons of Eastern Toads here. Like all critters, it cheers me to see them. 
Saturday, August 16. 2008
Back by popular demand!
This funny but handsome hodge-podge of a place�is called Morning Glory, now undergoing long-delayed major renovation and necessary graffiti:
�I like this simple�look very much. It could use a garden, though. Or maybe not.
More on continuation page below -
Continue reading "Wellfleet, Cape Cod Architecture, Part 2"
 We linked Vanderleun's Frame Up photo essay yesterday, but I thought it was worth further highlighting - or framing, as it were. Especially because my photography teacher friend thought that his idea was cool, and plans to use it in her classes. A few random thoughts and a quote:
- Vanderleun is apparently a big Hopkins fan, as am I. Hopkins was a student of the medieval metaphysician Duns Scotus, from whom he seems to have come up with his notions of "inscape" and "instress." While Hopkins never defined these terms, he attempted to realize the immanent presence of God in his poetry with rhythm and imagery (eg, here.) - Are photographers simply artists with ADD? I am (obviously) no photographer. I specialize in minimally-composed, poorly-lit, half-focused snapshots with a camera I don't know how to use, which are more intended to document a thing than anything else. In my youth, I drew and painted but I never developed those interests. I have always had too many interests - a dilettante in the perjorative sense of the word. However, I know that when you paint a thing you enter fully into it, of necessity, with brain, soul and hand. Same as playing a song with piano or guitar. - Framing has, indeed, a magical effect. It has always been a wonder to me how putting a frame on a canvas transforms it. Or how a wall, fence or hedge gives structure and architecture to a garden. Or how framing a fact with context does the same. Or how putting a quote in a "quote box" inclines one to read it. Are frames our tools or are they our protection from TMI, or even from the terrors of the infinite and of chaos? Or both? I'm in over my head now. One day, long ago, I took a B&W random photo of an old dock piling with a spike in it and some weeds next to it, on the West Side of Manhattan. It was one of the 20 photos I've taken in my life that came out well. Produced it in the darkroom myself. I put it in a $1.99 black frame and it looked like art. It's long lost, though. - In a comment on Vanderleun's piece, the internet metaphysician and master neologist Gagdad Bob has this to say: This is an extremely provocative subject. The other day I posted about the importance of boundaries in the creation of meaning. In the absence of a frame there is no art or science. But who knew that simply providing one allows one to appreciate the superabundance of beauty that is always pouring forth from virgin nature? In fact, you may remember the young videographer in American Beauty, who was able to perceive beauty by virtue of framing it with the camera, whether is was a paper bag blowing in the wind or a dead animal by the side of the road. I often go mountain biking in my area, and just by virtue of taking along a camera and framing the shots (even if I don't even take a picture), a different level of beauty suddenly emerges. You start to see things from a "God's eye view," for what is creation but a finite limitation on infinite possibility, i.e., the imposition of boundary conditions on the infinite? One could say the same thing of the formal structure of a poem, or of the structural narrative of a great novel that elevates the mundane to a higher plane, or the stage in theatre, which is also a kind of frame. Bottom line: in the conduct of your life, choose your frame very carefully. It makes all the difference. On one level the frame is an artifice, but on another level it is the doorway into the infinite and eternal. I guess it goes without saying that I see theology as a frame though which we may see, know, and experience all sorts of things (i.e., truth and beauty) that will go unnoticed in the absence of the frame.
Image is from Vanderleun's piece.
Thursday, August 14. 2008
 Yet one more manufactured, over-hyped crisis is being debunked.
Nowadays you can define anything you want as pathological. And this whole new fashionable category of "at risk" silliness expands things to include everybody. For example, at middle-age I am "at risk" for obesity. Not wanting to be fat, I decided not eat carbs and I do a tough daily workout. It's not too complicated. Prosperous nations have lots of fat people. More of them than poor nations, although poor nations have plenty of them too. The reason is that humans have a weakness for carbs. Thus being trim and fit is a sign of self-control, but being heavy is a time-honored sign of prosperity. If you want to see fat people, go to Disneyworld and get grossed out. There are Americans there so fat that they have to ride around in motorized chairs, like King Kamehameha. God bless 'em. The world needs more fatties, in my opinion. It means people have plenty to eat, but I don't like to have to look at them. To be evenhanded, however, I find anorectics even more disturbing. I happen to feel that excess fat in women is unattractive, slovenly, and unsexy. Somewhat less so in men: some stout men are cool, like Teddy Roosevelt was. Anyway, we have been subject to much brouhaha about obesity in recent years. Big health crisis, etc. You have surely read the news that being overweight is not such a big deal, from a medical standpoint. Even the WSJ covered the story, amusingly. Obesity - and that means much more than ordinary fatness and pudginess - is often quite benign. And being overweight is fine, from a health standpoint. Just like the the AGW fad and all such fads that governments are suckered into, there is fat money to be made from the obesity silliness. Follow the money: you know that somebody always wants some of yours. Careers. Respect. Pensions. Fat City. Fact is, when I was an intern in NYC, I saw plenty of skinny, athletic guys in their 40s come into the ER and crap out with massive heart attacks. Also, skinny guys with insulin resistance. The reasons to be relatively thin are to be fully functional - and aesthetic. If an American lady wishes a decent sex life, it behooves her to be trim. Not so in some countries, however, where they prefer us gals Biggie-Sized. Here's a good food story, from the Englishman: His typical breakfast order from Pete's Grille in Baltimore, Maryland: Start with three [white bread] sandwiches of fried eggs, cheese, lettuce, tomato, fried onions, and mayonnaise; add one omelet, a bowl of grits, and three slices of French toast with powdered sugar; then wash down with three chocolate chip pancakes. According to his autobiography, growing up, lunch also consisted of 1 pound of pasta, 2 large ham and cheese sandwiches with mayo and 1,000 calories of energy drinks. Dinner’s another pound of pasta and a whole pizza and 1,000 calories more in energy drinks. No food hang-ups with him. He gets it. Food is fuel, not endowed with magical or evil effects.
What a fat slob he must be, bet he can barely get up from the sofa to get to the fridge, something ought to be done to prevent our youths ending up like him...
Let's all be relaxed and tolerant: being fat is a "life-style" choice. Let them eat cake. Addendum: At Pajamas, Fast food restrictions fatten government
Wednesday, August 13. 2008
 David Brooks says that the economic rise of China demonstrates that collectivist societies can prosper.
I think he is wrong. Seems to me that the unleashing of individual enterprise and free markets (combined with free markets for labor, lower business taxes than the US, and globalization) are what have unleashed China's belated industrial revolution. In other words, individualism. But I am no expert on the subject (and neither is Brooks). There is still one Path to Prosperity. Furthermore, I wonder whether this whole subject of Asian collectivism is a myth. Police state-enforced collectivist "harmony" can give the appearance of a collectivist ethos - but only the appearance.
Tuesday, August 12. 2008
 From The Dartmouth.com:
Dartmouth alumni have the highest mid-career median incomes in the country in comparison to other college graduates, according to a survey by PayScale, Inc., a company that compiles compensation information across business sectors.
Hmmm. Maybe because so few of us become community organizers and politicians. Wah-hoo-wah. Not quite related: Does the Ivy League turn people into arrogant jerks? One quote: It's unseemly to ask for sympathy for having survived Yale, but the truth is, I'm still recovering from my experience there. Perhaps only the self-deprecating sense of humor of a Calvin Trillin can get across to the non-Ivied public what it was like without sounding boastful about answered prayers. There are disadvantages to an elite education; I'm just not sure that they're the ones that Deresiewicz mentions. When I meet someone who went to Yale, I search for the haunted recognition beyond the Boola Boola. But no one wants to reopen old wounds. When pushed, some of my friends confess that Yale made them feel rotten and insecure, and they continue to judge themselves against the extraordinary achievements of their classmates. Others claim they have spent their lives disappointed to never again find such a rich intellectual environment.
Sheesh. And not a single mention of the rich "dating" environment. Maybe that's because it's about Yale... And who claims that college nowadays is about "higher" education anyway, unless you are in the hard sciences? My view? Make high school a 3-year tough grind, and college a 3-year tough grind - and get these kids out of the grip of the educational industry and out into the world before they grow soft, soft-headed, and spoiled.
 Writing can confront you with odd things, like realizing that you aren't 100% certain how to spell "twelfth" when you start typing it. Lots of consonants for one small word. You can cheat and type 12th.
The Glorious Twelfth is the August opening of grouse season in the UK, mainly in Scotland. That would be the Scottish Grouse - Red and Black - legendary game birds. Driven fast-flying grouse - doubt I could hit a single one. Some day, I will try. They can reach 60 mph. Unlike the US, in the UK you can find game on restaurant menus - and on the same day, if lucky. In the US, we found it necessary to make that illegal - market hunters were driving wild critters to extinction. Public lands, no gamekeepers. Our grouse babies aren't even full-grown yet, and our grouse season doesn't begin until October. Brits and Scots would hate our North American grouse hunting. It entails walking endlessly, without cocktails, through alder tangles that can feel like jail cells, and with only a few shots per day. And no loaders, no drivers. Image: Scottish Red Grouse, in the heather on the moors.
 A witty friend once said that the most fashionable thing to have parked in your driveway is a green dumpster.
Well, I've had that for the last two weeks, but the mess and the cost and the dirt and the dust and the inconvenience of the demolition and slow reconstruction of the master bath isn't fun anymore. Carpenters, plumbers, electricians, painters, tile guys, new fixtures and vent fans... Turns out the leak had spread further than initially thought, so the entire bath had to be gutted. If you are interested, we did decide on a honed limestone floor instead of marble. Not just cost: it's a warmer, more homey look. And now I see why we had that mysterious, very occasional leak in the downstairs coat closet: the shower stall had a leak too. Homeowner's insurance, I have learned, doesn't cover chronic leaks, just the acute ones. I had both. Indeed, water and houses do not mix. Outhouses weren't such a bad idea, and outdoor showers are the best idea ever. I am inclined to cut back on a bit of my previous grand plans, not only because of the cost but because of the disruption of normal life routine. I can't find anything after having moved out of the master bath and halfway out of the bedroom. My only question: Where's FEMA? Bush obviously doesn't give a damn about my problems. Photo: Some nice limestone floor tile.
Thursday, August 7. 2008
 The Grand Army of the Republic Highway, U.S. 6, runs from Provincetown on the tip of Cape Cod to Long Beach, California.
Its history is interesting in the ways it was patched together. Bit of trivia: Route 6 was "the road" Jack Kerouac meant to take, but he got caught in a rainstorm on the Bear Mountain Bridge north of NYC, so made other plans. Photo is the Sagamore Bridge built in 1935 over the Cape Cod Canal on US 6.
Tuesday, August 5. 2008
Back from my annual trip to family-friendly, glitz-free�Wellfleet on Cape Cod, whence no opportunities for fresh posting. You talk about Obama stickers - good grief. Never saw so many of 'em. Just a solitary NOBAMA bumper sticker, and�one Ron Paul sticker on a plumber's old F-150: the self-employed are an independent lot.
Only regret: no time to stop by and visit with our friend�Sipp on the way. With the vacation traffic, the drive took us 7 migraine-inducing stop-and-go traffic�hours.
Despite the drive, the Cape is where I need to go to clean my brain with (all-organic)�cold salt water and to refresh my innards with fresh Wellfleet oysters.�Here's where we stay:
�Here's the view of the harbor and our�home beach�from our deck, with its tiny boardwalk across the little�salt marsh:
More photos of the place on continuation page below -
Continue reading "Pines, hot sand, and chilly salt water"
Sunday, August 3. 2008
 Bird Dog gave me some seedlings to try in the garden, warning me that they don't grow like squash, but like gourds. (They are an edible gourd, same as pumpkin.)
Vigorous doesn't describe it. These things are like Jack's beanstalk, and bugs leave them alone. You're supposed to pick them before they get much over a foot long. Americans may consider them to be an Italian heirloom vegetable, but they are grown all over Asia. You peel them and cook like summer squash. Sometimes people fry them, too. Photo: A cucuzzi, with an overgrown cucumber for comparison.
Friday, August 1. 2008
This is a re-post from 2006 - What? Me worry? - Alfred E. Newman The pursuit of happiness is a most ridiculous phrase; if you pursue happiness you'll never find it. - C.P. Snow You will never be happy if you continue to search for what happiness consists of. You will never live if you are looking for the meaning of life. - Albert Camus Happiness is a warm gun. - Lennon/McCartney Happiness is finding a 5-dollar bill in the pocket of a pair of old jeans in the back of the closet. - Jimmy Buffet Happiness is watching turtles lay eggs on a sunny, sandy riverbank, with Yellowthroat warblers chattering in the alders. - Bird dog Happiness is curling up in bed with a good book and a glass of good wine and a good hubbie on Sunday night at 9 pm. - Dr. Bliss Happiness is a perfect dove-tailed joint - yeah. - Roger de Hauteville Happiness is finding a rabbit to chase in the yard, when you least expect it. - Gwynnie the Yorkie I don't pursue happiness - happiness pursues me. - The Barrister Last week, Yahoo News reported this from Britain: LONDON (AFP) - Some 2,000 pupils at English state schools are to have special classes in happiness under a pilot scheme aimed at cutting depression, self-harm and anti-social behaviour. "Schoolchildren will take self-esteem classes to raise standards and cut crime," according to the Independent on Sunday newspaper. "Lessons in happiness are to be introduced for 11-year-olds in state schools to combat a huge rise in depression, self-harm and anti-social behaviour among young people. "Special behavioural techniques imported from the US will be used from September next year in an attempt to make children more resilient in the face of the pressures of 21st century living."
Gee - d'ya think 21st Century living is tougher than 20th Century living, or 19th, or 18th, or 8th? Please! Life has never been "easier" or "better" in human history, which is why we can waste time and money on such frivolous and immature subjects. We have posted on the subject of happiness in the past, in Happiness Traps, and The Economists Take on Happiness. It's a subject I dislike writing about, because it is an undefinable word except as a passing emotion: it is much easier to talk about kinds of unhappiness. However defined, though, there is one thing I know for certain and that is that Happiness cannot be taught in school. It is interesting, however, that Britain has become so secular, and so relatively materially comfortable, that they would even consider that happiness might be something that a government could provide along with all of its other wonderful and efficient "services". It sounds like Kim Sung Il. Which reminds me, we ought to do a summertime re-post of our Valentine's Day Manifesto for the amusement of new readers. In my opinion, self-respect is more valuable than self-esteem; accomplishment and satisfaction are more important than pleasurable ease; the pursuit of happiness is a scam; giving and receiving love, affection and friendship are the finest and only enduring things in life, and Government cannot replace God or defeat human nature. Even shrinks will deny that they offer happiness as a product. Freud spoke for all of us that psychiatry can, at the best, offer the hope of replacing neurotic (eg abnormal) unhappiness with normal unhappiness. "Life is difficult," as Scott Peck pointedly begins his wonderful and inspiring The Road Less Traveled. There is no way out of that, other than temporary escapist joys like vacations, a tennis game, a book, or a couple of nice glasses of wine. Well, a tennis game can put you through some heavy stuff, I guess: I am halfway through Ian McEwan's Saturday, which is a sort-of Day in the Life, and the squash game chapter is a minor masterpiece in itself. Pleasure is easy to pursue - it's like falling off a log. Heroin, I am told, provides excellent self-esteem, well-being, serenity, and happiness, and it is far cheaper, effortless, and far more effective than shrinks, or any other path. Anyway, some clever Music Man salesman sold the Brits on this thing. My guess is that the kids will take it about as seriously as they take Sex Ed, so they will not be harmed by involuntary government intrusions into their psyches. Hey, teacher - leave us kids alone. I realize that this is classic blog rambling...I will try to come back to it when I have a little time.
 It's got the big, ponderous name of 'Scheduled Tasks', but I prefer the term 'Windows Alarm Clock'. As so often happens with the built-in Windows tools, 95% of a program's function might be completely worthless, but that last five percent...
Got a doctor's appointment a month down the road? Want to make sure you catch that TV special in a few weeks? Just can't forget to make that important phone call bright and early next Monday morning?
Let the Windows Alarm Clock help!
Continue reading "Doc's Computin' Tips: Scheduled Tasks"
Our Editor forwarded me this 1992 paper by Tooby and Cosmides, The Psychological Foundations of Culture, (here in pdf, without the typos), which he found at Overcoming Bias. I wish I had known about this paper years ago. It's a dense and scholarly critique of what is known as "The Standard Social Sciences Model." The authors argued that this dominant model is obsolete and failing, resulting in a reactionary anti-scientific movement in the social sciences. I found it particularly interesting that the authors suggest that the clinging to an obsolete model has more to do with emotion than logic - a "fear of falling off the world." Similarly, they indicate that social scientists are emotionally attached to their blank-slate, meliorative views of human nature (there is no "human nature" - environment is everything, and thus people, culture, and society can be perfected - by them, natch). Their desire to hold on to that illusion causes them to resist many sorts of new information which conflict with their ideas. That is very human, but it ain't science. Indeed, what goes on in the social sciences would make for a fascinating sociological study.
Tuesday, July 29. 2008
Some of our traditionalist readers might not be fans of Brazilian artist Vic Muniz, but I am. He is an artist/photographer but calls himself an illusionist. This is modern art. I love this guy. His Chocolate Series was drawn with pixie sticks on Plexiglas and then photographed. This is his "Mona Lisa, after Warhol," painted with peanut butter and jelly. You can see why he sells his photos of his work and not the orginals. Somebody might get hungry: 
This is Gordian Puzzle: Orphan Girl at the cemetery, after Delacroix: 
This is The Reader, after Fragonard (from Pictures of Chocolate), 2002. Painted with chocolate sauce: 
Here's his Mont Sainte-Victoire and the Viaduct of the Arc River Valley (after Cezanne) 
Monday, July 28. 2008
 This is a tale of minor woe, a "for the loss of a nail, the shoe was lost; for the loss of the shoe, the horse was lost..." story.
When a homeowner sees that ominous drip, drip, drip in the ceiling, coming out of some light fixture, his or her heart sinks. We all know that water and houses don't mix. It turned out that the vibrations from the Jacuzzi tub had screwed up the drain. On further inspection, the dripping had rotted the subfloor. And, on further inspection, the underfloor in front of the shower was wet and crumbling too, partly because Mr. Shower Door installed the door opening out, not in. And the shower stall wasn't adequately vented. And, and, and... This means plumbers, demolition guys, tile guys, new fixtures, dumpsters and carpenters. A new subfloor and a new floor for the bathroom, hopefully something less slippery than the shiny Italian tile we had. I think a marble floor is the idea. And, since that is being done, let's take the vanity out and repaint it, and put a new marble top on it. And since we have a great carpenter/contractor here anyway, why not have him move the non-supporting walls around in the master bedroom to expand the closets and expand the room the way we have always talked about? Yeah, why not? Not a big deal, right? You can move all your hunting gear to the basement. And, since they're already doing that, let's finally put the fireplace in the bedroom. It can link right up to an existing chimney, after all. Cozy. And since they're doing that, let's get rid of all the old carpet and replace it with good oak flooring upstairs. Let's do it everywhere upstairs. After all, it's not much more expensive than high-quality wool carpet. And since the electricians will be around, let's replace all of that terrible hallway lighting, and then re-paint everything. I guess one of the consolations of home-ownership is to know, as you watch your life savings evaporate, that you are helping to keep the economy going in your neck of the woods. Were I single and childless, I could live in a shack in the woods, as long as I had a broadband connection. And a girlfriend or three for company.
 There was a time when a gent would no more leave his house without a tie than a lady would leave the house without a hat. I showed up at a tennis team outdoor dinner-dance event at my club on Saturday night with jacket and tie. Not wishing to make everybody else there feel grievously under-dressed, I quickly removed my tie and stuck it in my pocket.
I am an old-fashioned believer in the idea that professionals should dress up a little bit. Even if it isn't entirely comfortable. And I still believe in wearing a tie to church - not that God cares, but simply as a sign of respect for the occasion. From Neato, American Tie Guys Untie Their Own Association. Brooks Brothers ties have been my mainstay since I was 10 years old, but I have been known to wear other brands when given to me as gifts. Brooks summer ties are on sale now, but I think I have enough to last me. Easy to find a new one to like, though.
Saturday, July 26. 2008
A re-post from 2005: Norm has posted some interesting data from a recent study on the differences in libido between men and women. The results sound like that medical research spoof about the 20-year, 70 million dollar government study which proved the surprising fact that diet and exercise are important for weight loss. This new study offered the startling conclusion that men have higher sexual needs than women. More specifically, the study says that men need sex every five days, and women every ten. My opinion: This study only applies to Brits.
Our blogmeister Chris is a sailboat man himself, but he knows nice powerboats when he sees them. In response to our Hinckley powerboat post a couple of weeks ago, Chris offered the opinion that they were too "common." He attached this photo from his yacht club as proof: 
I happen to think that the Hinckley jet drive is cool as hell, but Chris prefers the Shelter Island Runabouts made by CH Marine. They built Billy Joel's commuter boat. Here's one of their Runabouts: 
Friday, July 25. 2008
From Wiki:  The conjunction fallacy is a logical fallacy that occurs when it is assumed that specific conditions are more probable than a single general one.
The most oft-cited example of this fallacy originated with Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman [1]: - Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.
- Which is more probable?
- Linda is a bank teller.
- Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.
85% of those asked chose option 2 [2]. However, mathematically, the probability of two events occurring together (in "conjunction") will always be less than or equal to the probability of either one occurring alone.
Thus is the brain seduced by detail. All writers know this fact. Which works best: "Dick wore a hat." or "Dick wore a green felt hat with a pheasant-feather hatband." One of my favorite sites to visit, Overcoming Bias, wonderfully discusses When not to use probabilities. He says: The laws of probability are laws, not suggestions, but often the true Law is too difficult for us humans to compute. If P != NP and the universe has no source of exponential computing power, then there are evidential updates too difficult for even a superintelligence to compute - even though the probabilities would be quite well-defined, if we could afford to calculate them. So sometimes you don't apply probability theory. Especially if you're human, and your brain has evolved with all sorts of useful algorithms for uncertain reasoning, that don't involve verbal probability assignments.
Those algorithms are "gut feelings." Often wrong, often accurate. There is one thing that I know for certain: the more time I have to think about how to hit a tennis ball, the more likely I am to blow the shot. He also says: In general a rationalist tries to make their minds function at the best achievable power output; sometimes this involves talking about verbal probabilities, and sometimes it does not, but always the laws of probability theory govern. If all you have is a gut feeling of uncertainty, then you should probably stick with those algorithms that make use of gut feelings of uncertainty, because your built-in algorithms may do better than your clumsy attempts to put things into words.
Thursday, July 24. 2008
 How many of you fellows out there are on statin medicines, like Lipitor or the others? Raise your hands.
Well, it's a good idea to take them. It may turn out to be a good idea even if your cholesterol and triglyceride levels are in the normal range. Why? Because the way they seem to reduce arterial disease leading to heart attack and stroke may not be just - or even mainly - so much by altering cholesterol and triglyceride blood levels, but by stabilizing the endothelium (inner lining) of arteries. Here's a technical paper on the subject. One quote: Several clinical trials including Heart Protection Study (HPS), Collaborative Atorvastatin Diabetes Study (CARDS) and Treating to New Targets (TNT) Study have suggested that statins can offer protection to patients with normal lipid levels through various nonlipid-lowering effects.
The inflammation, clots, and plaque on arteries are the main cause of terrible events. American males already have visible arterial disease in their 20s. I saw it and touched it when doing autopsies in medical school, in young people who died of other causes. Everybody dies. Statistically, if you reach maturity and don't die in a car crash, the odds are that half die of cancer and half of heart/arterial disease. So, if you can postpone that arterial disease, you get to die from a cancer. That's today's cheery medical news.
 We stuck with the Piedmont's local Barbera wines during our Italy trip. Barbera d'Asti and Barbera d'Alba. That same grape has been grown up there at least since the 13th century.
I did not realize that the Barbera grape is the most abundantly-grown grape in Italy. These are basically good table wines, nothing too complicated or fancy, and far down on the wine totem pole from the great Northern Italian wines like Amarone and the Nebbiolo grape-based Barbaresco and Barolo. About Barbera d'Alba, this site says: In the hilly area around Alba, only vineyards in the hills with suitable slopes and orientations are considered adequate for production. The terrains must be primarily clayey-calcareous or sandy-calcareous in character. DOC recognition is excluded for terrains with northern exposures and the bottoms of valleys that are flat or semi-flat. The colour of the wine is intense ruby red when young with a tendency to garnet after ageing.
This site says: The high-in-acid Barbera Grape of north-western Italy is a chameleon-like grape which changes considerably according to yield. As an everyday variety, it is a juicy glugger but it can metamorphose into a concentrated, rich, plumy and cherryish wine with undertones of sweet vanilla and spice when aged in small new casks. In Argentina, it tends to the former style with a little less acidity thanks to plentiful Andean sunshine.
Photo: Barbera grapes
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