Thursday, October 5. 2006
 Our contributor Gwynnie is up there this morning, on Lake Winnipegosis.
I wish for the gang far worse weather than in the photo (last October), when we had Bluebird weather five days straight, and the ducks were not flying. For duck hunting, you want wind, fog, sleet, snow, rain. Things that make people uncomfortable make the ducks uncomfortable, and causes them to think about moving from place to place instead of staying put. My best hunts have been in snow. The expression "good weather for ducks" means good weather for duck hunting. Otherwise, the ducks just sit in the sun and sleep in the middle of the lake. On such days, in time, the intrepid hunter, who may or may not have had too much after-dinner port the night before, dozes off, too, leaving a silent lake, the pursuers and the pursued all peacefully dreaming in the October sunshine.
[American religions teach] honesty, truth, temperance, gratitude, and the love of man. . . . with all these blessings, what more is necessary to make us a happy and a prosperous people? Still one thing more, fellow-citizens -- a wise and frugal government, which shall restrain men from injuring one another, which shall leave them otherwise free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned. This is the sum of good government, and this is necessary to close the circle of our felicities. Thomas Jefferson, First Inaugural Address, March 4, 1801
Wednesday, October 4. 2006
But in Poland, where the state retains many of its old monarchical temptations as it does in most of Europe, a guy is being chased by police for farting in a reply to "How do you like our President?" Dust my Broom. Run, dude, run. Your irreverent impulses are welcome in America...except by Al Gore, who might be distressed by your immoral and reckless methane emissions. (He produces none, ya know - not counting the volume of CO2 that comes out of his mouth. He is carbon-neutral and elevator-safe, and his feces are lily-white and completely organic.)
What is the big deal? Clinton did way worse with his young charges (with the sex IMs too), plus the BJs and all the rest. Why is this any different? Can't a good ol' Southern boy have his fun? How is flirting "predation?" Boys will be boys, right? Plus it's his personal life, ya know. And no BJs, as far as we know. Like a friendly uncle. Oh, it's different because Foley is gay! Gay flirting is predation. As the New New Dems wish to say, the guy is a pervert. Yes, yet another typical youth-stalking gay pervert. "And you gay Dems in the back row - Shut the hell up. We have an election to win." This would be a business-as-usual non-story if Foley were a Dem, and he wouldn't have quit, either. I am eagerly awaiting Barney Frank's and the Clinton's view of this story, but they are having too much fun watching the Repubs trip all over themselves - plus there's nothing they can say. Truly, election time is Silly Season. Wake me up when it's over.
New Sisyphus takes a look at a document from 1939 by the Reichspropagandaleitung. One excerpt from the piece: And, then, as now, "good hearted" Americans believed this: The response on the part of the American people to this New Year address shows us that they reject the plans of their president. He was told that he had no business interfering in the affairs of other countries, and Congress was told to think carefully before permitting the president to engage in foreign adventures. A national article asked if America was threatened by Hitler and if Roosevelt should force the Germans to democracy, something that has been attempted since 1917. The article concluded with these words: "Roosevelt is playing with fire."
and Congressman Hamilton Fish gave an even clearer answer. He gave a radio speech that strongly attacked Roosevelt's policies and declared that attacks by the president and his cabinet on the so-called dictators could lead only to war. All the totalitarian states that the president was attacking were occupied with their own problems, and would be for years to come. They had no thought of waging war against the United States or Latin America (Central and South America). Representative Fish said he could not be silent when the life, freedom and happiness of his nation were at risk. The time had come to put a stop to the warmongers of the New Deal, behind whom stand the war profiteers, communists and hysterical internationalists who want America to shed its blood and waste its money as the world policeman. Roosevelt's policies, Fish said, would lead to American involvement in every crisis in the entire world.
His speech was supported by the entire American press. It is also an indication of what the American people really think. The speech must be emphasized because it puts in words what the greater part of the American people think.
Why did the Nazis hate us? Rational Americans no doubt took these points at face value and sat down to think hard about how America could shore up her image in Germany, how legitimate grievances of Germany could be met with a helpful response, how the misunderstandings here could be avoided.
A fool's errand. The document continues: Why is Roosevelt doing all this?
The reason is clear. The American opposition party asked "Why this warmongering?," and gave the answer. It claimed that Roosevelt was using such methods to:
1) to conceal the embarrassing sale of the most modern American warplanes to France,
2) to divert the attention of the public from unsolved domestic problems, and
3) to provide a reason for his premature return (from the naval maneuvers), which might have some impact on Congress.
We would add a fourth point: Roosevelt is acting as the mouthpiece and puppet of international Jewry when he attacks the authoritarian states. They want to use every means to destroy the newly awakened nations.
Read the whole thing, at New Sisyphus
War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things. The decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling which thinks that nothing is worth war is much worse. The person who has nothing for which he is willing to fight, nothing which is more important than his own personal safety, is a miserable creature and has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself. John Stuart Mill
How do Monarch butterflies find their way from Quebec and Michigan to a single valley in Mexico? Unknown. NYT. Image is a Monarch visiting our buddleia, last September. But I see them around today, still on the move. Bringing megafauna back to North America? Aren't they all extinct, wiped out by the Indians? Science Daily You won't believe this press release in Venez. from Citgo: Devils' Excrement. Apparently Citgo cancelled the 7-11 contract! Or this one, either: Columbia Club Hockey suspended for a year for their recruiting flyer: "Don't be a pussy." FIRE. I guess the pussies in administration won that round. Who complained? Proof positive that racism is not an income factor in NY: Queens, NY blacks' income surpasses whites. Marginal Rev. This is a big deal, and a meaningful success for NY blacks, and for the country. Shape of Days is extremely upset about the Military Commissions Act of 2006. Should habeas corpus apply to terrorists? I wish I were as certain as he is, one way or the other. Here's a good one: Failure to warn, College student awarded 179,000 after falling out of a loft bed. Volokh. Too dumb for college? Two from the Old Doc: Fish oil after heart attacks? In Europe, it's a routine treatment, but its effectiveness hasn't been quantified. Still, not a bad idea for everyone to use it - or at least to eat salmon three times/week. It might delay the date of your first heart attack. Antipychotic drugs are used for people with persistent anxiety, agitation, bipolar disorder, and psychosis. The popular and expensive new ones turn out to be not much more effective than the antique ones. But they have been marketed very effectively.
Tuesday, October 3. 2006
 This is a golden oldie, but apparently Body Flex still exists. Greer Childers has lost the Bride Of Blonde Frankenstein/I Live Under The Power Lines perm, but she's still suckin' wind. And it's never good when you're mentioned in one of these.
But without question, this is the most entertaining exercise video in the history of ...well... You blow, girl. Body Flex (YouTube video)
 This is the final piece of our mini-series on The Risk of Inaction, and Type 1 and Type 2 errors. With a final word about luck.
Last week we talked about the Null Hypothesis (Part 1), and Type 1 and Type 2 errors using the example of appendicitis, and we talked about the often-reciprocal relationship between Type 1 and Type 2 errors - when you reduce one, the other rises (Part 2). (By the way, Here's a site that discusses in detail how Type 1 and Type 2 errors work, in the judicial system.) And I mentioned that it seems to be human nature to focus on the risks of action more than on the risks of inaction. It's as if we have a bias for the Null Hypothesis, and a wishful neglect of False Negative errors. "Don't worry about it." "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." Or, in the words of Mark Twain, "I have known a great many troubles, but most of them never happened." Oftentimes, that is true. Not always. Inaction is just a special sort of action. Today, a few more examples from regular life. 1. I have heard Bob Brinker say this many times: If you own a stock, but would not buy that stock today at its current price, sell it (unless tax considerations trump that logic). Traders and professional investors think as much about selling or shorting as they do about buying, but my experience is that the regular retail investor puts much more thought into buying than selling. Thus the amateur tends to think of the risk as being front-loaded - it feels as if the risk lies in the buying. (There is a huge literature on the psychology of perceived risk.) However, the truth is that the risk of buying and of selling are comparable. Somehow, owning the stock psychologically comes to feel like a new Null Hypothesis, and the default position. That is illogical, Captain. 2. One of the wisdom themes that I hand out to my grandkids is this: Life is just a conveyor belt of opportunity, but they only pass by once. Jobs, friends, fun - everything. You usually get only one chance - well, sometimes more if you're lucky - before the thing or the moment passes you by. But we often let them pass by, for fear of error, or for excessive bias towards the Null Hypothesis (eg "there is nothing here"). Thus life gradually fills up with the regrets of lost chances. When I was young, I was timid with charming girls. I'd gin up some courage to say "Hey" to one, and end up with pain and humiliation (False Positive, Type 1 error). I said "Hey" to another, and ended up with a year of grief and confusion (False Positive, again, in the end). Eventually, I said "Hey" to one, and it worked out just fine, to this day. But you always wonder - how many False Negatives did I overlook, for fear of the unpleasant False Positives? Risk-aversion can be a blessing, but also a paralyzing curse. The most relevant example below. 3. Invading Afghanistan and Iraq, to bring the fight to "them." Man, those were some tough decisions: I wouldn't want the job of making them, (but I have no problem second-guessing them after the fact, from my armchair). The evidence for the Null Hypothesis - "There is nothing of concern here" was adequately disproven by evidence. Bill Clinton was paralyzed by fear of Type 1 errors, although he had little reason for that. In the process, he ignored the risk of inaction - which was extremely serious. Recently in the news, Bill Clinton complained that he had no chances to deal with terrorism - no opportunities to be a hero. Wrong. Truth is, he was too worried about False Positives, and doing something in error. But what about the False negatives concern on the other side of the debate? As Anchoress reminds us, he had plenty of opportunities to deal with terrorism, but wimped out, while blaming history for not giving him chances to do something. Didn't WTC 1, and the Cole, and Somalia happen while he was Pres? He had opportunities, but declined to engage them, like someone who is so fearful of buying stocks that they end up ten years behind. Mitchell at Democracy Project points this out with great clarity. What are the risks of NOT taking the fight to the jihadists? Well, the risk would be, probably, getting more of the same from an emboldened Jihad. When we focus too much on error and risk, we can miss taking account of Opportunity Cost: there is a life price paid for every missed opportunity, as all grown-ups know - to their chagrin. Decisions that involve life and death are tough. But fear of error can cause many missed opportunities to do what might be best. Yes, there is risk. Always. However, chosing not to act can be as consequential a decision, in life, as chosing to act. As I see it, the people who take Opportunity Costs and False Negatives into account when making their choices are often called "lucky." I knew a Beagle named Lucky. Got hit by a car but survived, grew old, and died.
 The Foley story. Can I say that this story seems overblown? The guy is an idiot and a sleaze with no self control, but how many people in Congress might that be said of? Clinton, Studds, Barney - none of those guys resigned. Maybe it is election season?
Hawkins: Dems do have principles - they just cannot say them outloud. Absolutely true. One math for white guys and another math for the rest. This is surreal. Right Wing Nation A new blog: Prairie Politics - the inside scoop from flyover country. Are the megachurches the Walmarts of Christianity? Megachurches, minichurches, and medium- sized churches. What's the deal? Dan Burrell (h/t, News for Christians) Dunkin Donuts and Applebees. These two fine businesses deserve our support. Michelle We do a free advt for DD weekly, but never tried an Applebees until breakfast there in Nashville a week ago - good biscuits and gravy and grits.
Hope makes a good breakfast but a poor supper. Anon. (h/t, Tangled Web)
Monday, October 2. 2006
 In Little Rock, they want a Sharia enclave. Are you kidding me? Little Rock? Jawa
Fjordman with the Eurabia Code. All Europeans need to read this. Assuming you give a damn. (h/t, LGF) Chess cheating? Who knew you could cheat? Chequerboard. Jokes about Osama in the Islamosphere? It's about time. Dr. Sanity. Meanwhile, Al Quaida is losing hearts and minds fast. Am. Princess Private sector employees beginning to resent public employees and their rich perks. About time. Ankle-Biting Why Liberals piss me off. Babalu Hey, Mayor Bloomberg! You don't like trans fats or whatever. Chicken is next - it causes cancer! Ban chicken in NYC - I dare you. Moonbattery Lieberman looking to win, despite Ned's millions. Calif. Yank.
Hugo Chavez is truly a character of the times. He has a way of letting MSM capture his ranting and ravings and put them on the airwaves and now he duping the Venezuelan public into believing the United States is going to send agents to assassinate him. I think he has gone off the deep end and is in need of psychiatric attention immediately before someone or some nation actually gets hurt. What really bothers me is that the Venezuelan populace is unable or unwilling to do anything about having a mad man for a leader. Hugo although a laughingstock around most parts of the globe does have his followers since his money is very petrol good. What are the Americans to do? I think we should just watch and wait because he should blow himself up within time, and by all accounts it may happen sooner than later and then maybe we should call Austin Powers to the scene. After all Hugo is becoming one big joke!
From a piece by Homnick at American Spectator: Today is Yom Kippur, the Jewish Day of Atonement, a time of introspection, the one day a year where you must stare unblinkingly at The Picture of Dorian Gray that lurks in the back of your closet. Who is the real you, and how unlovely? What are you doing to improve that inner person, to guarantee that next year at this time the real you will be closer to the nice guy that the world sees? Otherwise, the initials of the Day of Atonement apply: DOA.
We'd all go nuts if we did that every day, but is once a year sufficient?
 Is the apocalypse back in fashion? Anderson in New York Magazine thinks so, from Greenies to Jihadists to Christians.
The Beer Revolution. Small breweries sell only 3.5% of beer in the US, but they have had a large impact. Beer update, at Reason. Why are your medical costs going up? Defensive medicine accounts for a lot of it. Scalpel or Sword (h/t, Kevin MD) Free speech for me but not for thee. When the Left loses something, they seek to limit speech. It never fails. Very scary impulse, and deeply un-American. Blue Crab John Hinderaker collated and edited the Al Quaida tapes, with the WTC bombers - from 2000. Bless his heart - I would have no idea of how to do that. Link here. Paddling is still allowed in many US school districts - which is excellent - but I see that in most places PE teachers can no longer give extra push-ups as punishment. What kind of pussy country are we becoming? Education Wonks Hezbollah is being very generous with funny money. Synthstuff Larry Kudlow continues to praise our "Goldilocks economy." Funny how few in the media are celebrating these good times. Glenn Betsy quoting Jonathan Last re Bernard Lewis' view of the hopelessness of appeasement: Some argue that these conflicts arise not from a clash of civilizations, but from specific grievances, such as the West's support of Israel. This is an unsatisfactory argument. In his 1990 essay "The Roots of Muslim Rage," professor Bernard Lewis pointed out: "The French have left Algeria, the British have left Egypt, the Western oil companies have left their oil wells, the westernizing shah has left Iran, yet the generalized resentment of the fundamentalists... against the West and its friends remains and grows and is not appeased."
The cause of conflict is not what the West does, but what the West is.
To understand the workings of American politics, you have to understand this fundamental law: Conservatives think liberals are stupid. Liberals think conservatives are evil. Charles Krauthammer
Sunday, October 1. 2006
 All 22 episodes to date of Bob Dylan's Theme Time Radio. Good fun.
Not only impeccable taste in tunes, but ones you aren't used to hearing. Plus you get to hear Bob talk. h/t, Marginal Rev. Some of the themes thus far: Coffee, Eyes, Bible, Cars, Dogs, Mothers, Jail, Baseball.
Desmond Tutu: Right question, wrong answer. He blames apartheid for crime wave in SA. Tangled. Same old scapegoating. It's a shame. The right answer is this: people haven't signed on to the social contract. People aren't "good" automatically. Brain damaged? Al Gore blames smoking for global warming. The guy is making himself into a walking joke. Dust My Broom. Hey Al! Have a smoke and a couple of beers, and chill! Read this magazine in the barbershop yesterday morning. Good fun. Definitely not highly technical - just right for non-science types. Popular Science Re this Foley guy in FL...If I ran the RNC, I'd consider beheading. Nobody told him only Dems can do this stuff? Details at Maxed. The Fence. Finally. That's good. And I agree with Calif. Yank: Why not a guest worker program like Candadanistan? You can stay for eight months, then go home.
|
