We are a commune of inquiring, skeptical, politically centrist, capitalist, anglophile, traditionalist New England Yankee humans, humanoids, and animals with many interests beyond and above politics. Each of us has had a high-school education (or GED), but all had ADD so didn't pay attention very well, especially the dogs. Each one of us does "try my best to be just like I am," and none of us enjoys working for others, including for Maggie, from whom we receive neither a nickel nor a dime. Freedom from nags, cranks, government, do-gooders, control-freaks and idiots is all that we ask for.
If you know what that means, you've just seriously dated yourself.
Marijuana.
Sure, it'll cure your lumbago and get rid of athlete's foot and do wonders for gout, but can it do anything useful? That's really the question of the day.
Mounting evidence shows ‘cannabinoids’ in marijuana slow cancer growth, inhibit formation of new blood cells that feed a tumor, and help manage pain, fatigue, nausea, and other side effects.
The American Medical Assn. on Tuesday urged the federal government to reconsider its classification of marijuana as a dangerous drug with no accepted medical use, a significant shift that puts the prestigious group behind calls for more research.
And, with two states legalizing it and more sure to follow, the whole question of marijuana etiquette arises.
Here in D.C., it is far from a partisan debate, something that both Republicans and Democrats struggle with. "It’s a cross-party issue," said a 27-year-old aide to a GOP congressman who, like many interviewed for this story, preferred not to give her name, further highlighting people’s discomfort with this subject. She says she smokes often at home, but does so without telling her ultraconservative, 50-something boss, her co-workers, or even many of her friends. "It’s really hard to know how people stand on it."
Unless, of course, you're Miss Iowa:
I do not think it should be used for anything but recreational use and health care.
(audience applauds, nary a boo to be heard)
As these things go, and given that the Miss America pageant is a uniquely American event, that's quite the little moment in television history.
I was chatting, this weekend, about how trolleys became obsolete when cars and buses developed. Buses are far more flexible, subways are quicker, and people love their cars. The Model T killed the trolley. With car traffic, trolleys are not much faster than walking. I have to admit, though, that the trolleys - and subways - in Vienna are great and easy for a tourist to figure out. However, Vienna has little car traffic.
I heard this fellow Tom Corley interviewed on the radio last week. He studies the life habits of prosperous people compared to less prosperous people.
He said nothing surprising. For a few examples, he said the prosperous tend to delay gratification, exercise, set life goals, make life plans, volunteer, severely restrict their kids' TV and computer time, set examples of hard work and self-discipline for their kids, to be constructive with their time, and to be frugal except in matters of health and charity.
Sounds old-fashioned, doesn't it? Socio-cultural-character tendencies. These things have not made me rich, but they have made my life better. People tease me about my frugality, but I am never frugal about truly life-enriching things and I hate being slothful. God did not make me to sit on my butt.
This beauty was parked next to us in the Lincoln Center parking lot tonight. We went in with friends to see the Nederlands Dance Co. on one of their very rare visits to the US, at the David A. Koch Theater. All 3 performances were sold out, unsurprisingly, but we got lucky.
On the drive home, Mrs. BD delivered a fine exposition, on our demand, of what the intentions were of their new choreographer team (splaining that it was less about rhythm and more like talking in movement). Their 20-person troupe is remarkably skilled. Then the topic of Sophie Guillam somehow came up, so after that she waxed eloquent about Sophie Guillam's performance in Sleeping Beauty with the Royal Ballet, which she had taken a BD daughter to see in NYC a few years ago. Our daughter had said to her Mom in the lobby - "Mom - Look! There's a real Princess." Her Mom said "No, sweetie, somebody just dressed up for the opening," and then turned and looked and saw it was Princess Margaret dressed in princess clothes to the nines, jewels, tiara, and a long green gown with a couple of attendants and guards.
Daughter had just thrown a sun dress over her wet bathing suit, rushing from swim team practice, never having combed her wet hair. She certainly felt underdressed. It seems that was an immortal performance because Guillam could do things with Sleeping Beauty that nobody else alive could do. Guillam later switched to modern dance because she became bored with her mastery of Ballet technique and wanted new expressive challenges.
We had a nice seafood supper first at the Atlantic Grill down the street from Lincoln Center.
NYC is always a blast for us, a jolt of vitality, a change of pace.
This simple problem, offered by a reader, doesn't (I think) require Bayesian methods:
Suppose some one person stole some money and there are a hundred possible suspects. You use a lie detector, which has a 99% chance of a positive if you are guilty, and a 99% chance of a negative if you are innocent. Someone tests positive. What are the chances the person is guilty?
As with medical tests, this deals with rates of false negatives and false positives. Please explain your answer in the comments.
I found this piece, with this example with some good discussion:
10 out of 1000 women at age forty who participate in routine screening have breast cancer. 800 out of 1000 women with breast cancer will get positive mammographies. 96 out of 1000 women without breast cancer will also get positive mammographies. If 1000 women in this age group undergo a routine screening, about what fraction of women with positive mammographies will actually have breast cancer?
The answer is 7.8%. That's why needle biopsies are done, but they can be read wrong too. Some error is always unavoidable.
She says doctors themselves generally get such stats wrong. Here's another example:
Here is a simple example, based on Mike Shor's Java applet. Suppose you have been tested positive for a disease; what is the probability that you actually have the disease? It depends on the accuracy and sensitivity of the test, and on the background (prior) probability of the disease...
It's worth reading both brief presentations. The current thinking seems to be that Bayesian is the only reliable approach for data these days, and, if data has not been subject to it, it might not be worth much.
In my field of mental illness, the data is always so squishy to start out with that I am a skeptic about everything I read anyway. I have seen very few reports in Psychiatry which have been subject to Bayesian analysis and are thus probably not worth much.
My experience is a better teacher which is, I suppose, sort of Bayesian.
I always thought the legal part was the least of it, but we all know well what can happen when government sticks its nose into things. This is pretty good:
If homosexuals and heterosexuals are really “equal” before the law, then logically heterosexual marriage must collapse into being little more than a legal construct as well. Indeed, marriage and family become mere adjuncts of the state after the removal of the de facto conditions that make the traditional family a pre-political institution in the first place. No longer is family something that, in the words of Douglas Farrow, “precedes and exceeds the state.” No longer is the family a hedge against the totalitarian aspirations of the state because no longer is the family prior to the state.
Government is broke, investors and businessmen are wary of the government (I don't believe this stock market, inflated by free $ and foreign $), the labor market is out of kilter, the EU is blowing up, etc. etc. The US is beginning to resemble France. Looks like a mess to me.
I'm happy to report that I am doing fine. I'm taking a date to the Blue Water Grill tonight. I made some fortunate but risky decisions. Now all I need is a good wife.
Reading Buzz Bissinger's confession, My Gucci Addiction, I would have to seriously consider the Bipolar possibility were I his doctor:
In the past few years, I've bought eighty-one leather jackets. Dozens of boots and leather gloves. I've purchased pants that cost $5,000. I own a $22,000 coat. This winter I took a tour of Milan's Fashion Week (all expenses paid by Gucci, in appreciation of my many, many purchases), where I spent tens of thousands more and began to seriously grapple, once and for all, with a compulsion that could cost me more than just my life savings. My name is Buzz Bissinger. I am 58 years old, the best-selling author of 'Friday Night Lights,' father of three, husband. And I am a shopaholic.
Not everybody who does crazy things has a diagnosis, but unless Mr. Bissinger has inherited $100 million, somebody ought to try to stop him before he blows himself up. It does not sound like his wife is likely to do that.
I am halfway through Helprin's* latest novel, In Sunlight and in Shadow. I've read most of his novels.
It's a love story in New York, but also has been described as a love song to New York. I think he also approached it as a chance to put all of his thoughts about what life is about into the words of his protagonist. Thus sometimes he lapses into "telling" instead of "depicting." His protagonist is Harry Copeland, a Jewish NYC leather goods manufacturer just returned from WW 2 who falls in love with an enormously wealthy and social WASP heiress.
Unlike his (I think) masterpiece, Soldier of the Great War, the new book could have used some vigorous editing but, like all of his stuff, worth the read because he is a very smart and observant fellow who just can't resist throwing all of his thoughts in there.
Helprin has an impressive and interesting bio. He had many adventures in life before settling down to write stories (and political commentary on the side). That's the best way to do it.
I like the detail that he does most of the manual labor on his farm in Virginia.
(* Note: Not to be confused with Mark Halperin, the Time Magazine politico)
Just as in ancient times, traditional marriage is becoming a thing of the prosperous, educated, and tradition-minded. The solid citizens, the pillars of communities; the stable people with predictable lives.
In my humble view, marriage is, or can be, two separate things: a secular property contract, and a religious covenant. Both are quite serious matters. I happen to believe that it is a difficult and challenging, but rewarding, structure for a good life. Seems to be good for kids too, which should not be surprising.
Making relationships that work is not an easy thing, given how neurotic everybody is. It can be worth the trouble, however.
The Decline of Marriage and the Rise of Unwed Mothers: An Economic Mystery. The real question here isn't "Why so many babies?" It's "Why so few marriages?" And we have an answer.
As we say here, building a complex life with social pleasures, financial stability, family structure with continuity, traditions, and reliability, and the general comforts of life, is difficult without marriage and family.
It's the time of year for trip planning. A bit early to think about fall hunting, but spring and summer plans are on the menu.
For no reason that I can comprehend, Mrs. BD likes to go places with just me. I enjoy including the kids and giving them special life treats as did my parents for me, and their companionship and getting to know them better as they unfold is a joy.
She has gotten a little carried away, and now has things in the pipeline for 2014 too, God willing.
She has scheduled Little St. Simon's Island in April to catch migration season (to please me), a kid's graduation mini-trip, and the annual family reunion week in Wellfleet in August (for the first time, sadly without Mom but, I hope, with all of the immediate and extended family).
For fall, I dunno.
Before I get old, my short-term (3-yr) bucket list includes:
- a good-sized villa (5-8 bedrooms) in Tuscany for 2 weeks with enough room for the entire family and dearest friends, with a cook and housekeeper (they all come with that anyway) and rental cars for all. I am saving up for that, but it's not really too expensive. As much as I love Umbria and enjoy Sicily, the family all deserve more time in Tuscany. Well, my kids are lucky. They've been everywhere.
- More Sicily. Rent a sports car, drink a little Tenuta delle Terre Nere Etna Rosso, then drive all over with my cowboy hat and a history text and ignore the speed laws like everybody else. Try to frighten the Mrs. with speed, but that is difficult to do. She likes speed too.
- a barge trip through southern France with the inlaws and family. Dad's a bit too feeble for this now, but he already took plenty of these with my Mom.
- I need to get back to Pine Butte in Montana soon, maybe next Spring for wildflower bloom and Grizzly Bears,
- and to Big Sky in the winter before my joints begin to creak. I need new skis.
- Bermuda again, for a romantic 5 days (we like Cambridge Beaches - they call it luxurious but it is only luxurious by British standards)
- Another Holland-America Line cross-Atlantic trip, as we used to do when I was young. I love the North Atlantic stormy days on a ship.
- Another Holland-America Line history cruise
What's on the top of Mrs. BD's bucket list? A week down the coast of Turkey on a gulet. I would love to get back to Turkey again.
Carpe diem, friends, because memories are all we have of lasting value, and memories rarely include our daily routines and chores. Even if they should, so much of it just blends together.
Thomas Nagel may be the most famous philosopher in the United States—a bit like being the best power forward in the Lullaby League, but still. His paper “What Is It Like to Be a Bat?” was recognized as a classic when it was published in 1974. Today it is a staple of undergraduate philosophy classes. His books range with a light touch over ethics and politics and the philosophy of mind. His papers are admired not only for their philosophical provocations but also for their rare (among modern philosophers) simplicity and stylistic clarity, bordering sometimes on literary grace. ..
another quote from the piece:
Materialism, then, is fine as far as it goes. It just doesn’t go as far as materialists want it to. It is a premise of science, not a finding. Scientists do their work by assuming that every phenomenon can be reduced to a material, mechanistic cause and by excluding any possibility of nonmaterial explanations. And the materialist assumption works really, really well—in detecting and quantifying things that have a material or mechanistic explanation. Materialism has allowed us to predict and control what happens in nature with astonishing success. The jaw-dropping edifice of modern science, from space probes to nanosurgery, is the result.
But the success has gone to the materialists’ heads. From a fruitful method, materialism becomes an axiom: If science can’t quantify something, it doesn’t exist, and so the subjective, unquantifiable, immaterial “manifest image” of our mental life is proved to be an illusion.
Bailey argues that it's because of moral presumptions, biases really. I'd agree that that is a factor, but he doesn't consider peoples' healthy skepticism about the Truth du Jour. Science offers theories, not facts. Educated people know that Science is not a religion, and few scientists claim Truth.
Few things that were believed to be "scientific truths" 50 years ago are believed today, and the same will apply 50 years from today.
Her: "Honey, I know you want snuggles but I don't feel close to you. You never talk to me or share your feelings."
Him: "But I am talking to you right now, and I am sharing my strongest, most personal feelings: Please take off your clothes and let's hop into bed and have some fun."
Similar:
Her: "Honey, let's take another marriage class at church so we can open up with eachother and communicate better."
Him: "I learned at the last one we did that I communicate best non-verbally."
A good
I am halfway through Helprin's* latest novel, In Sunlight and in Shadow. I've read most of his novels. 
It's the time of year for trip planning. A bit early to think about fall hunting, but spring and summer plans are on the menu.