Wednesday, August 27. 2008
This is where Duck Creek empties into Wellfleet Harbor. 
 I get 90% of my ideas for my website posts in the shower. And this is probably why.
My morning shower thought for today was this: Why were the top two Dem candidates people who have never accomplished anything substantial or difficult in their lives - other than to be in elections? (Note to John McCain: An ad asking "Name one thing Obama has accomplished in his life.") This is not coincidence. Many politicians are not very good at regular life, but these two stand out as having only been good at being, not at life accomplishment. Being female, being black, and being medium-smart and above-average crafty and calculating. They have never run anything, made anything, or done anything: It's all about being them. As Dino notes: Think about this: most people have someone whom they know or with whom they work, a relative perhaps, who has a thicker résumé and a longer list of achievements than the Democratic presidential candidate. Consider this: if history were different and Senator Obama had decided this year to run to become governor of Illinois, would he have been given rock-star status? Could his Republican opponent have run against him as “too inexperienced” to govern the Prairie State?
These folks are all about Jive Talkin': Admittedly, I will always tend to vote for the more conservative candidate in any election, even if he or she is brain-damaged. That's because individual freedom and protection of our freedom is my main political agenda. That's my bias. I'm sure the Lefties approach things similarly. However, my resume (and life experience) is deeper than Obama's or Hillary's, for sure. But that's not saying much.
...whenever Christians actually dare to make political choices on the basis of those beliefs, then the enlightened gatekeepers of American secularism in the academy and in the media rise up in righteous wrath and rush to the barricades to defend us against the barbarian hordes of true believers who if unchecked will transform our republic into a "theocracy" and impose their intolerant bigotry on everybody else. And when the President himself is one of these religious fanatics, then the prospects for the republic and the Constitution are dark indeed—even the usually rational New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman whined after the election that he was depressed "because Bush's base is pushing so hard to legislate social issues and extend the boundaries of religion that it felt as if we were rewriting the Constitution, not electing a president."
But not this year, funnily enough. Hmmm. Read his whole essay (link above).
The idea that political freedom can be preserved in the absence of economic freedom, and vice versa, is an illusion. Political freedom is the corollary of economic freedom. Ludwig Van Mises
I'm fairly good with nuance, but 99% of the time good vs. evil is rather clear. A banner from the Dem convention protesters - which might as well be from the Dem convention: 
BTW, I am not saying that the war in Iraq was a good idea. I am open-minded about that, but it's history now. The proof is in the pudding. However, I have no doubt that it was about good vs. evil.
Insty notes: BEWARE: In America, racism is everywhere! Everywhere people don't support Obama, anyway . . . .
Since about 50% of Dem primary voters voted for other than Obama, the rampant Dem racism is proven. No wonder MLK Jr. was a Republican. Same as Abe Lincoln.
"The big ideological defeat hidden by environmentalism" at Samizdata, who quotes Will Wilkinson: Climate eschatology really is the ultimate in big lie crisis politics. The far-left has failed so comprehensively to make the case for its vision of society and economy that the only thing left to do is to brazenly and repeatedly assert that the world will literally collapse unless we implement this otherwise indefensible vision.
and I think the point is that the clock really is ticking. If we don't "do something" soon, we'll probably see that we don't really need to do anything really dramatic, and then the window for radical social change will be closed. So I expect the volume to get much louder.
Tuesday, August 26. 2008
 Any room left under the bus? Toss Ayers under it, now. Related: Where did Obama's mo go? Also, you just can't win with the Clintons. Obama was smart to keep away from them: they make a mess wherever they go (see video). Related: Nervous Dems want Obama to look strong. Metrosexuals aren't supposed to look strong.
Related, I think this is crazy talk: All of us driven by a simple belief that the world as it is just won't do — that we have an obligation to fight for the world as it should be.
We are? Why is it named "Shell Oil," or Royal Dutch Shell? Answer here. It's about seashells.(h/t Jungle Trader, who always has good tidbits) More on the race-pandering rent-seekers who need Obama to lose the election. But they already have a plan: If he wins, he'll be a token black guy; if he loses, it will prove the depth of American racism. (Note semi-colon use.) The Red Primer for Children and Diplomats The dangers of excellence, in the pomo world. So why did they let Phelps swim? Dunce du jour: Nancy Pelosi thinks that natural gas doesn't come from wells and isn't a carbon fuel. Double-dunce: She doesn't understand her church's stand on abortion. The current Dems are McGovern redux. Rick Moran. No new ideas in 50 years, really. Stuck on faith in government, instead of faith in people. A great Obama endorsement: "For our gay-lesbian- bisxexual-transgender rights to continue to grow and not further diminish, then we need to stand behind [Obama].
Ad he really does not want this story to get out. It's out. The most retarded ways celebs go green. h/t, Attack Dems favor global welfare? What a brilliant new idea. Via Tim Blair: Imagine telling somebody twenty years ago that by 2007, it would be illegal to smoke in a pub or bus shelter or your own vehicle or that there would be £80 fines for dropping cigarette butts, or that the words “tequila slammer” would be illegal or the government would mandate what angle a drinker’s head in an advertisement may be tipped at, or that it would be illegal to criticise religions or homosexuality, or rewire your own house, or that having sex after a few drinks would be classed as rape or that the State would be confiscating children for being overweight. Imagine telling them the government would be contemplating ration cards for fuel and even foods, that every citizen would be required to carry an ID card filled with private information which could be withdrawn at the state’s whim. They’d have thought you a paranoid loon.
Photo via Theo, who is busy harvesting this week. He is a farmer.
A quote from this excellent piece about men, which was linked earlier by our NJ and thus doesn't count as a new post during Maggie's vacation break:  As long as men feel marginalised by the women whose favours and approval they seek; as long as they are alienated from their children and treated as criminals by family courts; as long as they are disrespected by a culture that no longer values masculinity tied to honour; and as long as boys are bereft of strong fathers and our young men and women wage sexual war, then we risk cultural suicide.
In the coming years we will need men who are not confused about their responsibilities. We need boys who have acquired the virtues of honour, courage, valour and loyalty. We need women willing to let men be men – and boys be boys. And we need young men and women who will commit and marry and raise children in stable homes. Unprogressive though it sounds, the world in which we live requires no less. Saving the males – engaging their nobility and recognising their unique strengths – will ultimately benefit women and children, too. Fewer will live in poverty; fewer boys will fail in schools and wind up in jail; fewer girls will get pregnant or suffer emotional damage from too early sex with uncaring boys. Fewer young men and women will suffer loneliness and loss because they’ve grown up in a climate of sexual hostility that casts the opposite sex as either villain or victim.
Photo: A real man. Atticus Finch.
In full bloom, with plenty of Ruby-Throated Hummingbirds buzzing around. Weeds? I don't see any weeds. Monarda itself is almost a weed. What's a "weed," anyway? 
As a man is said to have a right to his property, he may be equally said to have a property in his rights. Where an excess of power prevails, property of no sort is duly respected. No man is safe in his opinions, his person, his faculties, or his possessions. James Madison, National Gazette, 1792
A quote from a wonderful review of some Pepys books, at Dublin Review of Books:  Given the extraordinary character of Pepys’s journal it is surprising that it is not more central to English culture and self-understanding. After all, (Leopold) Bloom, once a confirmed outsider, is ever present in contemporary Ireland’s attempts to understand itself. One of Pepys’s nineteenth century admirers, Robert Louis Stevenson, described the diarist as among the greatest men in the annals of mankind, adding: “he has yet placed himself before the public eye with such a fullness and such an intimacy of detail as might be envied by a genius like Montaigne”. Indeed, there is enough material in the diaries to keep the English costume drama sector busy for many years, yet, notwithstanding this and their unique character, they have failed to make a serious impact on the popular mind in England.
Read the whole thing. Here's his entry from Aug 22, 1665, when he hangs out with one of his girlfriends, Mrs. Bagwell (Mr. Bagwell made himself scarce when Pepys stopped by): Up, and after much pleasant talke and being importuned by my wife and her two mayds, which are both good wenches, for me to buy a necklace of pearle for her, and I promising to give her one of 60l. in two years at furthest, and in less if she pleases me in her painting, I went away and walked to Greenwich, in my way seeing a coffin with a dead body therein, dead of the plague, lying in an open close belonging to Coome farme, which was carried out last night, and the parish have not appointed any body to bury it; but only set a watch there day and night, that nobody should go thither or come thence, which is a most cruel thing: this disease making us more cruel to one another than if we are doggs. So to the King’s House, and there met my Lord Bruncker and Sir J. Minnes, and to our lodgings again that are appointed for us, which do please me better to day than last night, and are set a doing. Thence I to Deptford, where by appointment I find Mr. Andrews come, and to the Globe, where we dined together and did much business as to our Plymouth gentlemen; and after a good dinner and good discourse, he being a very good man, I think verily, we parted and I to the King’s yard, walked up and down, and by and by out at the back gate, and there saw the Bagwell’s wife’s mother and daughter, and went to them, and went in to the daughter’s house with the mother, and ‘faciebam le cose que ego tenebam a mind to con elle’, and drinking and talking, by and by away, and so walked to Redriffe, troubled to go through the little lane, where the plague is, but did and took water and home, where all well; but Mr. Andrews not coming to even accounts, as I expected, with relation to something of my own profit, I was vexed that I could not settle to business, but home to my viall, though in the evening he did come to my satisfaction. So after supper (he being gone first) I to settle my journall and to bed.
Good grief (h/t Vanderleun). Where's the stable and the manger? 
Monday, August 25. 2008
 Throw the speculators in jail! The good news? Home sales up. Bubble needed a little correction, same as the oil bubble. Beware of bubbles, suckers. It's musical chairs.
Hamas leader's son embraces Christ, and even the Dem church and state meme is no longer operational. Why Obama would be bad for black Americans An online beauty pageant for nuns I agree with Insty. MADD should have a couple of beers and chill out a little. They have become cranks. Where have all the real men gone? They are all around, if you just look. Via Insty: Dems rally against teacher's unions. It's about time. Darfur: depressing topic. Nobody knows what to do, and nobody wants to offend the Moslems. Hey Al Gore: It's gonna be a very cold winter. But if you look at the poll on that article, most people want it to be warmer. Wussies. From the editors of NRO. It begins: The Democratic party that meets today in Denver is one that many of its forebears would hardly recognize and might abhor. The determination to face down our enemies that characterized Harry Truman, the willingness to cut tax rates that John F. Kennedy showed, the pro-life convictions that informed Hubert Humphrey and Ed Muskie, even the free-trading instincts that Bill Clinton possessed — all have been banished from the party of Barack Obama and Joe Biden.
In place of these older political strains are a restless welfare statism; a hope, masquerading as a strategy, that we can talk and charm our way out of foreign crises; and a social liberalism that prefers the courts to do its heavy lifting. This party has found perfect exemplars of its ideology in its nominees.
Read the whole thing.
Liberty is the sovereignty of the individual. Josiah Warren
The "Root Cause" Scam Norm Geras from Normblog is doing some deep thinking: The root-causers always plead a desire merely to expand our understanding, but they're very selective in what they want to "understand". If causes and explanation are indeed a serious enterprise and not merely a convenient partisan game, then it needs to be recognised that causality is one thing and moral responsibility another, though the two are related.
and: Ever on the lookout for damning causes, the root-causers never go for the most obvious of these. This is the cause, indeed, which shows, by its absence, why most critics of the Iraq war or of anything else don't murder people when they are angry. It is the fanatical, fundamentalist belief system which teaches hatred and justifies these acts of murder. That cause somehow gets a free pass from the hunters-out of causes.
My only disagreement with the article is that it seems to assume that the terrorism apologists are sincere in their positions and postures - which I feel is naive. Thus Norm's great analysis will have no impact on any of the hard Left, reflexively anti-Western readers of the Guardian (in which the piece appears). After all, what is the "root cause" of the anti-Western reflex of the Left? Whatever it is, it isn't ignorance (except in the young). Intellectual integrity - and even integrity - mean nothing if you can convince yourself that your mission is to save the world via Lefto-Fascism - or just to try to promote yourself! You rise above such bourgeois hang-ups. Just like the Jihadists...hmmmm. Read the entire - link above. And read my piece on related subject on Maggies last week.
This is likely my last week as a regular at Maggie's, so I have been given a special vacation break dispensation to post ad lib. If I begin my new job after Labor Day thinking about this friendly Yankee site, I won't be doing what I need to be doing. And I need to get ready to move this weekend. My only issue is my guns. Guns to NYC? I will leave them with my buddy in Mass. I have no clue about NYC gun laws.  Volleyball is boring? Not if 1) you are playing or 2) pretty girls are playing in their underwear. h/t, Insanities.
Obama's tax plans would give you a 64% tax rate in California, for the self-employed. Bob Brinker. Would you work hard for that? Not to mention Obama's cap gains tax plans. How Conservative are Americans? Just ask them. And how Left is Obama-Biden? Fred Barnes Related: The "tender-minded". And speaking of tender... I smoked a pork butt yesterday. Had some friends over for beers and pulled pork. Don't tell me that it isn't Yankee food. It is now. Best ocean photos. Gay parade, no vet parade. Are gays the new vets? Who lied about Iraq? Chronic plagiarist? Hey, that's old news. As somebody said, maybe he'll teach Barack to fish. I don't think Barry's Dad knew how to fish. Since conventions no longer select candidates, what's their purpose now? To create a TV narrative. The narrative is always the same: "Things are terrible. We are wonderful." "Hillary is like 'Are you kidding me?'" Dave Barry Insty: GOOD NEWS ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT: "According to a study by the Desert Research Institute, pollutant levels at the beginning of the 20th century were two to five times higher than current levels of pollution."
How to destroy a state (or country) - Malanga on New Jersey's gradual suicide. One quote: ...why has reform been so difficult? In part because the kind of big-government, tax-consuming policies that are doing so much damage have also given more and more residents a stake in the current system. State and local government employment is among the highest in the country on a per-capita basis, having increased by 15 percent from 2000 through 2006 alone. Hundreds of thousands of current and retired public employees aren’t about to vote for changing the system, for fear it would eliminate their perks and benefits. Meanwhile, the state’s recent tax increases have fallen entirely on upper-income residents. Those earning more than $200,000 a year, who account for just 4.9 percent of households filing tax returns, are paying 60 percent of all personal income taxes. Jersey has even managed to make its onerous property taxes progressive by instituting a means-tested rebate program: higher-income residents don’t get cash back. The effect of all this is to make New Jersey a place where just a few businesses and residents pay the freight while so many others are on the public dole, in one way or another, that reform becomes virtually impossible. Of course, such a system cannot sustain itself very long before collapsing, as some businesses balk at expansion, others (like the newspapers) shrivel, and declining opportunities stifle job growth. That’s why Jersey now lurches from crisis to crisis.
 Is college worth it?
Consider a young man who is at the 70th percentile in language and mathematical ability. He is easily a good enough student to get into mid-level universities. As far as his “people skills” go he is average, but in small motor and spatial skills, he’s at the 95th percentile. The fellow could go to college and get a degree that would put him on track for a management job – where he probably wouldn’t rise far because he’ll be competing with many others who have better skills.
On the other hand, he could become an excellent electrician. If he were to do that, he would probably earn substantially more than if he became a manager and also enjoy far greater job security. Moreover, there is the important matter of personal satisfaction. Our young man will probably have far more of it in a career where he can see tangible results every day and quite possibly become his own boss.
Conclusion: “(G)uidance counselors and parents who automatically encourage young people to go to college straight out of high school regardless of their skills and interests are being thoughtless about the best interests of young people in their charge.” Murray has that exactly right. We need to break out of the mindset that you can’t be a success in life unless you have a college degree.
Obama hipsters! Iowahawk. h/t Jules Clintonista whining. Sheesh. We are all gonna drown! Greenland glacier does glacial things: It is too early to say it is clearly global warming, Zwally said. Scientists don't like to attribute single events to global warming, but often say such events fit a pattern. University of Colorado professor Konrad Steffen, who returned from Greenland Wednesday and has studied the Petermann glacier in the past, said that what Box saw is not too different from what he saw in the 1990s: "The crack is not alarming... I would say it is normal."
Normal? It's a crisis! Run and hide!
Photo on top: pulled pork. Mr. Brown is my favorite. Lower photo, my new neighborhood hang-out: Scratcher's. I will miss Rudy's, but Scratcher's has cute gals - without brown roots, and with all of their teeth, too. I am looking forward to a change. Hope and Change!
Sunrise in the Catskills, 1826 
Sunday, August 24. 2008
The power to tax involves the power to destroy. Chief Justice John Marshall, 1819
 Just as professional journals and newspapers are more interested in printing pieces that support hypotheses rather than papers with negative findings, so we all tend to spend more time discussing the risks of action rather than the risks of inaction.
That seems to be human nature, but it ain't rational and, fortunately, people vary across a spectrum of activity/passivity. Passive people worry about the risks of action. Active people worry about the risks of inaction. I am more-or-less in the middle. To discuss that half-intelligently, though, I first need to review the notion of Type 1 and Type 2 errors, now that we have taken a look at the null hypothesis a couple of days ago. A Type 1 error, also known as False Positive, is the error of erroneously rejecting the null hypothesis. In other words, it supports a connection which does not really exist. A Type 2 error, or False Negative, is the error of wrongly accepting the null hypothesis. In other words, it says nothing is there, when it is, in fact, there. For example, a blood test which has a 10% False Positive rate will wrongly tell you that there is an abnormality 10% of the time. A blood test with a 10% False Negative rate will miss an abnormality 10% of the time. For another example, convicting an innocent person is a Type 1 error; letting a guilty person go free is a Type 2. Depending on the matter at hand, either sort of error could have worse consequences. A Type 1 error in a death penalty case is a grievous error. But sometimes you need Type 1 errors. My favorite example of a good Type 1 error is in the emergency treatment of appendicitis. Since medical diagnosis contains both art and luck as well as science, some error rate is inevitable unless you have the diseased organ in hand. But since a False Negative diagnosis would have dire consequences (ruptured appendix), it is necessary to do some unnecessary appendectomies on patients who might have appendicitis, but do not turn out to. In the case of emergency appendectomies: one study indicates that the Type 1 error rate is around 10%, with 18% False negatives. I would have guessed that the False Positives would be higher, and you could argue that there is room for them to go higher. The point is that, with appendicitis, you want to minimize your False Negatives by having more False Positive diagnoses - by being deliberately biased against the Null Hypothesis that there is nothing there, but without cutting open everyone with a bad stomach ache. Thus that is the opposite of what you want in a justice system, where the null hypothesis of innocence is presumed in order to minimize False Positives.
Today's sermon, if you don't make it to church. (h/t, Mousnaround)
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