Maggie's Farm

For every problem, there is one solution which is simple, neat and wrong. 

H L Mencken

Excerpts from The Impending Collapse of Arab Civilization

I'd like to post the entirety of Col. Lacey's enormously provocative piece, but I don't think I can. The piece is by Lieutenant Colonel James G. Lacey, U.S. Army Reserve, pulbished in the Proceedings of the US Naval Institute, Sept., 2005. His basic thesis is that Islamism is the symptom, but the disease is a civilization at death's door, which counters Bernard Lewis' widely accepted thesis about jihad. At the end of his piece, he offers some solutions, especially an old-fashioned one - "containment." Generous excerpts from this important piece, which deserves to make the rounds, follow (link is at end of continuation page):

"A more accurate understanding of events leads to the conclusion that Arab, not Muslim, civilization is in a state of collapse, and it just happens that most Arabs are Muslims. In this regard, the fall of the Western Roman Empire was a collapse of Western Europe and not a crisis of Christianity. The next question is, how could the world have missed an entire civilization collapsing before its eyes? The simple answer is that no one alive today has ever seen it happen before. Well within living memory we have seen empires collapse and nation-state failure has become a regular occurrence, but no one in the West has witnessed the collapse of a civilization since the Dark Ages. Civilizational collapses take a long time to unfold and are easy to miss in the welter of daily events.

Interestingly, on the Arab League's website there is a paper that details all of the contributions made by Arab civilization. It is a long and impressive list, which unfortunately marks 1406 as the last year a significant contribution was made. That makes next year the 600th anniversary of the beginning of a prolonged stagnation, which began a dive into the abyss with the end of the Ottoman Empire. Final collapse has been staved off only by the cash coming in from a sea of oil and because of a few bright spots of modernity that have resisted the general failure.

Statistics tell an ugly story about the state of Arab civilization. According to the U.N.'s Arab Human Development Report:

• There are 18 computers per 1000 citizens compared to a global average of 78.3.

• Only 1.6% of the population has Internet access.

• Less than one book a year is translated into Arabic per million people, compared to over 1000 per million for developed countries.

• Arabs publish only 1.1% of books globally, despite making up over 5% of global population, with religious books dominating the market.

• Average R&D expenditures on a per capita basis is one-sixth of Cuba's and less than one-fifteenth of Japan's.

The Arab world is embarking upon the new century burdened by 60 million illiterate adults (the majority are women) and a declining education system, which is failing to properly prepare regional youth for the challenges of a globalized economy. Educational quality is also being eroded by the growing pervasiveness of religion at all levels of the system. In Saudi Arabia over a quarter of all university degrees are in Islamic studies. In many other nations primary education is accomplished through Saudi-financed madrassas, which have filled the void left by government's abdication of its duty to educate the young.

In economic terms we have already commented that the combined weight of the Arab states is less than that of Spain. Strip oil out of Mideast exports and the entire region exports less than Finland. According to the transnational Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), regional economic growth is burdened by declining rates of investment in fixed capital structure, an inability to attract substantial foreign direct investment, and declining productivity — the economic trinity of disaster.

Economic stagnation coupled with rapid population growth is reducing living standards throughout the region, both comparatively and in real terms. In the heady days of the late 1970s oil boom, annual per-capita GDP growth of over 5% fueled high levels of expectations. GDP per-capita grew from $1,845 to $2,300. Today, after adjusting for inflation, it stands at $1,500, reflecting an overall decline in living standards over 30 years. Only sub-Saharan Africa has done worse. If oil wealth is subtracted from the calculations the economic picture for the mass of Arab citizens becomes dire.

Things are indeed bad in the Arab world and will get much worse.

This statement should not be read as mere opinion.

Rick's Timeline

We noted an earlier timeline of Katrina provided by Environmental Economics, but now Rick has gone further. Great work. Read it, but I think his server has been a bit "flooded" with readers. The response to K. wasn't really all that bad, considering the extent of damage and inevitable chaos. Agree: Three cheers for the LA Dept of Wildlife, and the US Military.

Pvt. Donations pass 1/2 Billion Mark, here.

Tulane:

Tulane plans to keep tuition revenue that it has already received from its students for the fall. "That allows us to have some source of revenue this fall, while we are closed," he said.

Huh? A credit, I hope. Chronicle of Higher Ed.

Sir George Martin

Known as the Fifth Beatle, Sir George surely deserved the term. Producer and advisor on all of the Beatle's records (except for "Let It Be," produced by Phil Spector), he also did all of the orchestration and performed on many of the records. Without doubt, he is the guy who took their raw talent and charisma and shaped it into something big.

When he first heard their demo in 1962, he commented "Awful," - but he liked the fellows when he met them, and enjoyed their humor. One of his early moves was to replace drummer Pete Best with Ringo, a better drummer from a competing Liverpool band.

A grown-up (born 1923), an ex-lieutenant in the British Air Force, a devotee of classical music and an experienced producer who had worked with Peter Ustinov, Peter Sellers, Spike Mulligan and Dudley Moore, it was great luck that he decided to take on the unknown Liverpool and Hamburg bar-band The Beatles. Sir George lent stability and musical sophistication to the band, and he knew his way around a recording studio. Sir George is, sadly, now hard-of-hearing and getting on in years, but Beatles afficionados (and who isn't?) can get a good sense of the Beatles' evolution, and of his role in it, on the 1996 The Beatles Anthology, a fine series to watch on a rainy Sunday afternoon while puttering around.

(In their brief, very productive 10-year life, it's hard to decide on a favorite Beatles album, but I would have to say that "Revolver" is their best. Not to disparage any of their other stuff. "Rubber Soul" is up there too, but for pure simple wholesome joyful pop, their first American release, which I still have on vinyl - "Meet The Beatles" - is great clean fun and full of memories for me and everyone else of my generation. It holds up well, too, if you don't need ugliness and evil in your pop music. But I cannot get into favorite Beatles - Hey Jude, Penny Lane, I Wanta Hold Your Hand, She Loves You, and the magical She Said She Said...it's endless. Oh, also Revolution, the B side of the single Hey Jude - the tune that corrected millions of impressionable adolescent minds. If you young pups want to Meet the Beatles, listen to all of their recordings - in chronological order. Satisfaction guaranteed.)

Frank Houston did a good piece on Martin in Salon in 2000, here. A brief intereview with him here, on his composing the score for the movie Yellow Submarine.There is a brief bio of Sir George on Wikipedia. There is a better and more extensive one here - click on Biography of Sir George Martin and it will appear. And more on him at this website. I am sure that a Knighthood is a fine and very cool thing, but Sir George has a far better reward for his work - the delight and gratitude of millions.

Still Crazy after all These Years

Remember the attitudes of the press and the "intelligentsia" during Nixon's admin? Has there been any difference with Ford, Reagan, Bush 1, or Bush 2? Any?

The nation has become smarter, wealthier, and more shrewd and skeptical since the Nixon years, but the hate and the use of lies and propaganda haven't changed one bit - nor the impulse to destroy any Repub. administration. (And, yes, Nixon was an excellent President - but not a conservative by any means -whose cover-up was about as classy as Clinton's.)

A Comment on War, Peace, Freedom, and Bombs

It isn't every day that we at Maggie's are honored by a lengthy comment from a Sgt., USMC WW2 and Korea vet. This from Jim Baxter from Choicemaker:

Every September, I recall that is more than half a
century since I landed at Nagasaki with the 2nd Marine Division in the original occupation of Japan following World War II. This time every year, I have watched and listened to the light- hearted "peaceniks" and their light-headed symbolism-without-substance of ringing bells, flying pigeons, floating candles, and sonorous chanting and I recall again that "Peace is not a cause - it is an effect."

In July, 1945, my fellow 8th RCT Marines [I was a BARman] and I returned to Saipan following the successful conclusion of the Battle of Okinawa. We were issued new equipment and replacements joined each outfit in preparation for our coming amphibious assault on the home islands of Japan.

B-29 bombing had leveled the major cities of Japan, including Kobe, Osaka, Nagoya, Yokohama, Yokosuka, and Tokyo.

We were informed we would land three Marine divisions and six Army divisions, perhaps abreast, with large reserves following us in. It was estimated that it would cost half a million casualties to subdue the Japanese homeland.

Read his whole comment on Maggie's, here. And thanks, Jim

Matisse

However familiar his work is, the man himself has been a mystery. No longer. From Schjeldhal's review of Spurling's multi-volume biography of Henri Matisse, in The New Yorker:

How can intellectual potency be claimed for an artist whose specialty, by his own declared ambition, was easeful visual bliss? It’s a cinch, now that Spurling has cleared away a century’s worth of misapprehensions and canards. Take, for example, the popular notion that Matisse was hedonistic. Hedonists seek pleasure. Matisse served it, as a monk serves God. He was a self-abnegating Northerner who lived only to work, and did so in chronic anguish, recurrent panic, and amid periodic breakdowns.

Read the whole review to learn more about the man who said that art should be like a good armchair.The piece above is Matisse's Seated Dancer - in an armchair. Notice the way he patterned her skin, like upholstery. The website Artcyclopedia has a good Matisse section here, with paintings listed by museums, and links to photos.

An Email from Houston:

Sent: Monday, September 05, 2005 12:26 PM

To: [List]

 Subject: Houston's response to the evacuees of Katrina

 Dear everyone:

   I thought you might like to know what yesterday was like for me: Andrea White  (the mayor's wife and good friend) called me and asked if  I'd like to join her to tour the Astrodome, Reliant Center and the George R. Brown.  Of course I ran with the opportunity.  (Now I know what it's like  to be a political dignitary----all guarded doors just miraculously open!!!) What this city has done is absolutely amazing.  The Astrodome has over 15,000 people there, Reliant Center about 5K, and the George R. Brown  about 4K. There are many other shelters throughout the city and it is estimated that we have about 125K evacuees housed in Houston-Harris county.  The volunteers that have shown up  have organized chaos into a semblance of order, which  is nothing but miraculous.  There is all the food anyone  could eat.  Some still hoarding for fear they will loose their food, etc.  Over  8K have already been re-located into housing.  SBC set up free phones so that people could  try to connect with families.  CPS relocated 50 children  with their parents.  As of yesterday we still had 3 children in emergency  foster care----don't know the count today---but I did see Rusty Joiner at the Astrodome yesterday.  The clothing, shoes, etc., are being distributed. Showers are hot and the water plentiful.  A laundry is donating their services to get the towels and personal items of evacuees done.  All  towels were donated, I haven't a clue where they came from.

Something Beautiful for a Sad Time

Did you know that you can plant clematis in the fall? It's a good way to jump-start them. Best source for these climbers who require shaded roots, here. They have detailed planting instructions, too - important for these vines.

Pink and Grey, Wolves and Sheep, Fear and Courage

Confederate Yankee says "Best essay I've ever read." It is damn good. "Tribes" by Eject eject eject. Read it.

LNG Tankers

Natural gas used to be flared off at the top of oil wells, but it has become economically worthwhile to transport and sell it by means in addition to pipelines.

Thus liquefied natural gas tankers are a growing component of fuel transport. As of 2003, there were only 151 operating, and more being built. Most, but not all, have the distinctive row of bell-shaped containers. Their construction is double the cost of oil tankers due to the costs of refrigeration and insulation, and only eight shipyards in the world are building them. We can expect to see more of them around in the future, but their construction is limited by the numbers of unloading terminals. 

There's some good info on the economics of LNG transport here, and a fine gallery of LNG tanker photos here.

The secret of success in our business is sincerity, so if you can fake that, you've got it made.

George Burns

Captive of the News Cycle

Bird Dog is back (Do I hear that distant applause? Or am I hallucinating again?). I am not going to fire The News Junkie, but I would fire Brown, Nagrin and Blanco if I had the power. Baby Landrieu too, for good measure. But the NJ - who I rely on - has a tendency to get caught up in the headlines of the moment and to lose perspective. It must be his youth. He likes the adrenaline rush, the battle of the moment, getting indignant at stupidity and lying, etc. etc., but in two weeks, the hurricane story will be over and the story of life will resume, until the next Big Story. He gets obsessed, and wants to make a difference - but he doesn't. Biggest flood in American history - Big Story. Biblical. Apocalyptic and Dylanesque. But the politics of it are cheap and a shame and a pity and a bore. The only blog I've seen - and no newspapers either (The always- predictable NYT is trying to make a race war out of it) - that deals with it all rationally (eg non-politically) is Env. Economics. Also, a blog I like, Ex-Donkey, who has ignored it thus far, probably modestly and wisely figuring everyone else is doing enough with it.

Let's step back. The American Left, noisy as it is, is small but desperately angry and hateful. They have become opportunistic berserkers and annoying mosquitoes because, having been deprived of power, they have only the power to destroy and snipe and bite. The country has taken back the White House, the Senate, the House, and now the Supreme Court away from them, and they feel like they are down in the flood, not only in the US but everywhere. Being down in the flood can make people crazy. This "Left"  includes the MSM and the NYT, for sure, and some fraction - not all - of the Democratic Party. They do go beyond the legacy of "loyal opposition" to the point of "disloyal" and the point of dishonest propaganda, and I do not excuse this. The issue could be anything. They seek to destroy when they cannot win in elections, but, as I recall, there were some who tried the same with Clinton.

It's a very dirty game, and far worse when not played by rules of honor and integrity and respect. Now, it's war. They will lose some and win some, but they will lose in the long run, because their ideas don't make sense in the real world, and because their hatred of time-honored traditions and morals give folks the creeps - most people are not ready to have reality reinvented by self-selected, self-important moralizers. Rather have these things maintained by elected, self-important moralizers! But right now, they are emotion-intoxicated and therefore irrational and dangerous. (And, may I add, Bush is no conservative. Maybe he was once, but now he's just a regular politician, and a below-average one too, without the manipulative instincts and with, let's say, only average ability to think when he talks.)

More importantly, Michelle has lists of places to donate clothing, supplies, etc. by mail. What a great motivation to clean those closets. There is a need for $, but for stuff too - so send both, or just send stuff. We're doing it here today - all the kids, too.

One of the symptoms of an approaching nervous breakdown is the belief that one's work is terribly important.

Bertrand Russell