Hard Times?

uh, plenty of folks are buying the cheap coffee at Starbucks instead of $5 lattes. No shorter the lines, though.

#1 Phil on 2008-11-19 16:05 (Reply)

Impossible to tell but it's awfully hard trying to fight the tape. After listening to the Barney Frank committee today one can't help being a little pessimistic. Bloviating, grandstanding, bullying political hacks with little to no understanding of business, economics or the pressures faced by American manufacturers. I wouldn't be looking for leadership from those jokers.

#2 Tom c on 2008-11-19 16:15 (Reply)

This is the beginning of a depression. I say this as someone who lived through the Japanese "Lost Decade" which also sucked Hawaii down the tubes in the Nineties (unlike the rest of the U.S.). This one is worse, and it's the whole country, not just Hawaii. We are already starting to see the deflationary spiral. My wife lost her job three weeks ago (attorney and commercial escrow officer). There are no jobs out there. In my firm we now try to do damage control as deals go under, generally because the lenders won't fund because of the drops in asset values or cash flow. I worry whether we will make payroll till the end of the year. This morning I heard an employee asking the business manager whether the firm will make its required retirement contribution this year, which shows that the employees know what's going on.

I stopped going to Starbucks a month ago. I drink green tea in the office and eat peanut butter sandwiches for lunch. I don't sleep much.

#3 Jim on 2008-11-19 16:26 (Reply)

It's a nasty downturn with a triple whammy.

1. We were due for a recession - it just happens.

2. The financial crisis - thanks Barney, Sarbanes, Oxley and the rest.

3. The Democrats just won complete control of the federal government. The business world is holding it's collective breath to see how much more damage these guys do. Meanwhile, everyone is sitting on cash or sending it abroad so no recovery for a while.

If the Dems can control themselves, it will blow over in a few months. If Obama wants to impersonate FDR, he'll get his chance with another depression.

#4 NJSoldier on 2008-11-19 16:31 (Reply)

It's like a depression for banking and finance, but nobody cares about those folks.

#5 BD on 2008-11-19 16:35 (Reply)

Ya know BD, you cease to amaze me. Just because there's a few bad apples out there in the banking industry, no one cares about the rest of them. Do you bear any resemblance to Pugsley of the Addams Family? Are you having the Maggie's farm Christmas party at your house? I like ya. I really do, but when you put your foot in your mouth, you put it in all the way.

Long and protracted down turn. High possibility of a Depression. I like Jim am not sleeping well. Wife is snoring non stop. Did anyone think we would be in this position in May , or June of this year?

#5.1 jappy on 2008-11-19 18:08 (Reply)

All driven by fear, Jappy, my man. Irrational but effective fear.

That makes it real. No matter reality.

#5.1.1 Luther McLeod on 2008-11-19 21:11 (Reply)

Bad but not the end of the world.The media drives this story just like any other 'disaster' and the chickens squawk...for some who as is always the case invest and spend wildly trouble looms, but for others new opportunities arise....all in all 3 years will see us moving on with our lives.

#6 thud (Link) on 2008-11-19 16:39 (Reply)

Well, aside from the horror of watching our nest egg shrink, I guess we should consider ourselves lucky. We have two cabins here in northwestern Michigan that we rent out to hunters, hikers, fishermen, etc, and business has been steadily increasing year after year, including this year. We are retired, so no job worries - just pension & SS worries.

Our neighbor, an independent contractor/builder, has been in and out of work for several months. In previous years, he had a waiting list of projects. I hear locally that the food banks can't keep up with the number of families that need help. We're all pitching in. I hope things get better sooner than later, but today the Dow is down again..........

#7 Toad on 2008-11-19 16:53 (Reply)

That's Santa Ana winds. Santa Anita is a race track. Which is of course is a better place to take one's chances than the stock market.

#7.1 LaurieK on 2008-11-19 23:54 (Reply)

It is not a depression yet but there is still time before the New Year. The MSM is fueling the fire like the Santa Anita Winds and that is having an affect on commerce and attitudes. Cash is king but no one has as much as they thought including the middle class. No one will hire because there is no credit and thus we are coming to a slow and grinding halt. Time to break out a good scotch and dream about better days ahead!

#8 opie109 on 2008-11-19 17:11 (Reply)

I know it's corny- but watch the beginning of The Road Warrior, as the leaders talk and talk, and the machine slowly grinds to a halt. The stuff of sci-fi is come to life.

#8.1 Phil on 2008-11-19 17:26 (Reply)

Boy took the presidential election pretty hard, and as much as I try, I can not seem to keep my big mouth shut... always letting slip with some "Damn socialists" type comment while he is within earshot. But I have determined to face this thing head on.

With winter coming on, we look forward to long snow storms during which we hunker down for movie marathons. I am preparing to expose Boy to the entire Mad Max series. Also, in the event that we have to play an overtime film - The Quiet Earth.

#8.1.1 Pajak on 2008-11-19 18:29 (Reply)

How are things at Fort Courage? I'm going to hunker down and build me a fort too. Going to call it Fort Dago. Maybe Jephnol, and Green Mt punter will build one to. Then we can send each other smoke signals, cause were all surrounded by blue injuns.

#8.1.1.1 jappy on 2008-11-19 18:48 (Reply)

Things at Fort Courage are well, considering all things. Thanks for asking! I'll bone up on my smoke signal skills. I love the idea of life imitating art imitating life.

Smoke signals, canned goods, ammunition, trapping, candlemaking, distillation of alcohol... all will soon be back in vogue.

The Wife sent me this link the other day from way over in the other room, with orders to study it. (Maybe when the Internets collapse we can learn to talk again!)

All that's left is setting up the bicycle to power the TV/DVD/stereo rig. That and the still!

#8.1.1.1.1 Pajak on 2008-11-19 19:23 (Reply)

This is about how susceptible we are to the media. I don't buy the gloom and doom scenarios, and after watching Jeff (James) Schiff on the video BD put up last week, I won't be listening to any financial 'gurus' again. Stuart Varney did say this morning that buyers were beginning to trickle in, and that does make sense. As far as Starbucks going down - hell yeah. What kind of moron society pays eight bucks for a cup of coffee? That they've bought the farm is a sign we might be okay because good sense has come back. Twenty-four-hour news: Who'd have thought they could determine who our president would be and then turn around and scare the daylights out of us? They should be fined for massive fear mongering. The bank mess and the politicans who fostered it need this shakedown. The Stars Buck Effect. And the UAW - I hope they lose big time. We should just relax and wait.
`

#9 Meta on 2008-11-19 18:08 (Reply)

Exactly, Meta. There's still 6 billion people to feed, clothe and house. The numbers shift, but not the need.

Unless everyone just throws their hands up in the air and says 'screw it'.

#9.1 Luther McLeod on 2008-11-19 21:20 (Reply)

Bambi and the Dems are looking all the way back to the 30s with ideas of infrastructure projects to jump start the economy. Billions of dollars pumped into roads and bridges will make nicer roads and bridges...And, a handful of construction companies will get rich. But, it is a very different world now. We are not going to employ millions of laborers in these construction projects. The equation has changed and these jobs now require a fraction of the manpower as in the 1930s...To make matters worse, much of this kind of construction now imploys immigrant labor, much of which is of the undocumented variety. I'm not an economist but I'm pretty sure this is an empty rabbit hole.

#10 Scott on 2008-11-19 18:21 (Reply)

It is a long, empty rabbit hole. I wish I had the link to the study that showed public works projects take too long to implement to have a real impact.

#10.1 Barrett on 2008-11-19 18:37 (Reply)

Here in Waco (just down the road from the Bush Ranch) things seem to be doing a bit better than in some parts of the country. We're losing our Linens N' Things, like everywhere else, but downtown construction is booming and the major employers (Baylor University, aerospace) seem to be holding their own.

As a top spins and gradually loses power, it starts to wobble just a little from side-to-side before instantly falling over and skittering across the floor. Let's hope all this financial wobbling doesn't end the same way.

#11 Muley (Link) on 2008-11-19 18:26 (Reply)

There's nothing like a six part, overlapping, complex economic question that needs to be answered in a soundbite for drama! (I'll apologize in advance for being soundbite deficient.)

I work in corporate banking and finance in New York. (Before you stone me, my practice has always been the stuff that adds to the economic pie. I have not been involved in the mortgage backed securities, CDOs, CLOs or SIVs.) Needless to say, my life has been tumultuous for the past 18 months and it is unlikely to get better quickly. (In fact, I told a friend of mine that it is presently about having a job and maybe someday we can think about having a career again.)

The bottom line is cash. Recession, depression or recovery depends upon how many companies and how many consumers run out of cash before some sort of normalcy returns to credit and equity markets. Ultimately, Wall Street and Main Street need each other.

Everyone (corporations and consumers) needs to view themselves as corporations with assets, liabilities, net worth and cash flow. You may have a great idea, a great business or great assets. If you can't turn those assets into cash quickly enough to meet your obligations, then you are up the proverbial creek. Assets that used to be relatively liquid are less so today. How long that will last is unknown.

Credit markets are open to the best investment grade borrowers at wide spreads that have shown modest improvement over the past couple of weeks. In fact, several BBB (the lowest investment grade rating in simple terms) issuers were able to access the market in the 8% to 9.5% range.

The good news is that BBB issues actually occurred. The bad news is that credit spreads are very wide. The only recent high yield issue had a 13% coupon and carried an OID.

This activity is in the bond market.

Banks are lending as little as possible. Banks worry if borrowers can pay back obligations and worry about capital constraints because reserves and write-offs have not yet peaked. The increase in loans reflects draw downs on existing credit facilities and not new extensions of credit.

When (i) non-investment grade public and private companies can raise debt capital in public or private (including bank) markets and (ii) consumers can obtain credit on reasonable terms, then the deleveraging process will have reached its conclusion.

The challenge in assessing when the bottom occurs is that the process is dynamic. The more cash flow falls or the more assets are sold at any price to raise cash, the lower the degree of financial leverage.

The more corporations slash jobs (and some of this is justifiable because you have to live to fight another day), the longer the pain lasts.

Government intervention will only extend the period of pain. For example, the Big Three in Detroit have been failed by both management and labor. There are structural cost problems, product deficiencies and investment requirements that need to be addressed if Big Auto is to be competitive long-term. A bail-out will just be good money after bad because it will not address the fundamental problems that the current economic crisis has brought to the fore. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy of Detroit today will add to the short-term pain and the depth of the current problem. Therein lies the conundrum!

The fourth quarter is toast. People in stores is different than people carrying bags out of stores. Retail results seem skewed towards the former.

My hope is that we are nearer to the bottom than what now seems like the distant top. But I don't think we have seen the big barf yet where down volume and new lows exceed 90%. I think one reason is that many believe the government has an ace up its sleeve and will effectively bailout everyone. Given what has happened so far (e.g. the bastardization of the TARP plan), I would not get my hopes up that the government will get it right.

Tonight, I will hug my wife and kids and thank God for what we have. Tomorrow, I will go at it again and with skill and a little luck, I may be able to help a client solve a problem that adds value and makes all of this come to and end sooner rather than later.

I wish all the readers and writers at MF the best.

#12 Barrett on 2008-11-19 18:32 (Reply)

Thanks, Barrett, your penultimate paragraph actually cheered me up. You're right, we just have to keep on plugging away. But I have to say, most mornings these days I don't want to get out of bed, let alone go to work.

#12.1 Jim on 2008-11-19 20:48 (Reply)

Good wishes back to you and yours. You would have made a fine Secretary of the Treasury, under the Larson, Mc Leod, Wife ticket. Do you follow the Baltic Dry index? If so what do you think?

#13 jappy on 2008-11-19 19:02 (Reply)

Jappy,

I don't "follow" the BDI as a matter of course. It is more of a general indicator of international trade for me and can be looked at in conjunction with the CRB index.

For our readers who may be unfamiliar with the BDI, it is an index (i) that directly measures the demand for shipping capacity versus the supply of dry bulk carriers and (ii) that indirectly measures global supply and demand for commodities such as coal, iron ore and grain shipped aboard dry bulk carriers.

The BDI has dropped from roughly 11,770 in May to 815 on November 4 and closed at 859 as of today. The BDI is essentially at historical lows from its inception in 1998. It seems hard to believe that international trade is down as much as the index and that the index is primarily reflecting a decline in shipping rates.

The optimist in me says it is unlikely to fall to much more in absolute terms because these levels are very close to the operating costs of the shipping lines. I also know that ships have trimmed cruising speeds to save fuel.

The entire shipping industry is facing the same challenges as all capital intensive industries. The credit crisis has also disrupted trade credit, which is an essential component of getting cargo loaded onto ships.

I do have clients who are operators in various ports around the US and Canada. I can tell you that TEUs are down significantly.

China, in response to the decline in trade, announced a $585 billion stimulus plan. China has to grow GDP at roughly 8% just absorb new entrants into the workforce - which is one key for political stability not lost on the Communist Party elite.

Certainly an increase in the BDI would be an indicator that trade flows have recovered (although it could also mean that capacity declined and raised shipping prices - but that would take some time.)

It is one of the teas leaves to read!

#13.1 Barrett on 2008-11-20 00:37 (Reply)

The solution for Detroit is to receive a cash infusion subject to filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization, and I nominate Mitt Romney to be appointed trustee. To inject more cash without being tied to the bankruptcy filing would merely prolong the agony.

Once the Big 3 are in Chapter 11, with adequate working capital, the trustee can move swiftly to do what we all know must be done first: Re-negotiate all management salaries and union contracts, everybody shares the pain; the only alternative is to call the unemployment office.

Then sub-contract purchasing to Wal-Mart's top management who can show them how it's done in profit-making enterprises. And rev up the design departments in a re-tooling mode so they start producing products the consumer wants to buy.

I hear that the Gov of Michigan and former Rep David Bonoir, both part of the problem, are signed on as economic advisors to Obama. I can hardly wait to hear their plan for saving ol' Motown.

#14 greenmtnpunter on 2008-11-19 19:22 (Reply)

Thanks for that sober comment...all the best to you as well.

#15 thud (Link) on 2008-11-19 19:26 (Reply)

Are we headed for a 3-year global recession?
Nobody knows.

Are we headed for Dow 7500?
Probably. And probably also headed for a 10500 as well. Nobody knows.

Are people buying things where you live?
Yes.

Is this a hyped-up ordinary recession, with great stock market buys that will make you wealthy in a few years?
Nobody knows.

Are we headed towards a long global depression?
Nobody knows.

Is this all an emotional reaction?
Not all. Some.

Is this all a Dem/Obama effect?
Not all. Some.

#16 lenf on 2008-11-19 20:03 (Reply)

My husband and I were harder hit by the supposed good economy under Clinton than we are now. And to boot al, I lost my job 4 weeks ago because I worked for a company heavily reliant on business from one of the banks that failed. I realy was not surprised by the bank failure or the job loss. Dear old man also says I let my appalachian scruples and work ethic keep me from playng ball with team shady accounting and buisness practices and I was run off.

Regardelss, and my point - I found nearly 100% replacement income stream with similar benefits, hours and such, in a similar business within a week and am still looking at potential new opportunities. I discussed with my new collegaues today a marketing okabn for new business and we are pretty sure we will be able to get it to take off with some quick success.

So personally, I welcome the correction to the market, the overinflated vaues and expectations hurt my family for many years (long story) and we are the kind of people who can succeed better on a more level playing field.

I hate that some people will be hurt, but I think some self inspection at services or goods provided, skill(s), and an outward look at who is buying what and what has real value will lend itself quite well to the hard workers. Yeah sure, and with true compassion, there will be some real hurt. But, for the most part, I think that once all the wheat is sifted, what will emerge is a much improved work force and a higher value line of goods and services that will be a fordce world wide. How long? That depends, like many said in otehr comments, on the media feeding frenzy that is thriving on the raw meat of personal irresponsibility and group think.

#17 Heather Gilliam on 2008-11-19 21:04 (Reply)

Good perspective, Heather. And a perspective that will outlast what ever temporary pain we will suffer as a country, or world, for that matter.

#17.1 Luther McLeod on 2008-11-19 21:31 (Reply)

we are paying for the Clinton years.
So much money given out ...in cahoots
with Greenspan, who was dumb enough
to believe that we believed in Y2K.
Now it's "global warming".

Just ways to spend others money.

Obama will look good to those getting
checksin the mail...but the end will
be ugly.

#18 j reacher on 2008-11-19 21:20 (Reply)

As a child of the Great Depression, who is now 80, I think that the [if it bleeds it ledes] media are complicit in this present situation. They are hyping up the panic, without doing a thorough research job on the details of this uncomfortable situation. And if they can possibly get most of us to panic, they will do so. They think maybe they can win a Pulitzer for doing so. So don't expect them to behave well. In this present tightening market, some businesses will falter and fail. Food prices will go up, housing prices will go down, and there will be panic selling of luxury items like boats, clothing, planes, time shares and other luxuries.

I hope and pray that GM, Ford and Chrysler will have to take bankruptcy, because then they can renegotiate their expenses, like the ruinous union contracts, and get rid of some of the silly-ass management types who were stupid enough, when they were going to Congress to beg for money, to fly to Washington in multi-million-dollar private jets. Jeez Louise! How stupid do they think we are?

We're paying for more than the Clinton years here. It goes further back, to Jimmy Carter's administration and the Community Reinvestment Act, which was later expanded in the Clinton Administration. In a very real way, the Democrats own this recession/meltdown whatever you want to call it.

I wish we could just all sit down and think for a minute here. Yes, it's awful. People are in pain, worried for their futures and their children's futures. But take time to look around you, around your home, around your children's needs, and assess what is absolutely necessary and what you can do without. I had my 18-year-old Volvo completely overhauled in June and its running beautifully. I don't need a new car. I need a car that functions well, and now I have one. I don't have to keep up with the Joneses. They're all dead and I'm alive.

My husband and I took stock last week of where we are financially. Our food costs can be reduced somewhat and we already eat at home far more than we go out to eat. That saves money. I know how to mend clothes and darn socks. Most women out there no longer learn this useful skill. When I was in grade school, girls all took Home Ec and we learned stuff like that. If a 9 or 10 year old girl can learn how, you can. Actually, it's rather soothing to do it, kind of like knitting. For many years I made some of my own clothes, and I looked better than most folks -- at least my husband says so.

I guess what I'm trying to say is, I have the greatest of faith in Americans, in their innovative, make-do skills, in their creativity and toughness. The only thing that can weaken us and spoil our good judgment is panic. So, do a reasoned assessment of your current strengths and weaknesses, things you can alter and improve. We all have those. And implement improvements, whether they are financial or habitual. Get your kids involved in helping. They have more energy than we older folks do anyway. They can offer to do chores around the neighborhood for money. We used to. Next, take note now of the troublemakers in Congress, who they are and what they want to do with your money. And remember, so you can vote against them in the next election.

Most of all, be of good cheer. Remember, what goes down must come up. It just takes awhile.

Marianne

#19 Marianne Matthews on 2008-11-19 22:03 (Reply)

Sorry to comment jack, but Kipling offers some advice about what our demeanor ought to be as there is so much panic about us in the market and the media.

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you
But make allowance for their doubting too,
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:

If you can dream--and not make dreams your master,
If you can think--and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools:

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it all on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breath a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: "Hold on!"

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings--nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you;
If all men count with you, but none too much,
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And--which is more--you'll be a Man, my son!
----------------------------------

Words to live by - especially the ones about treating triumph and disaster both as the imposters they are.

#20 Al Maviva on 2008-11-19 22:34 (Reply)

Don't look now, but China has just displaced Japan as the leading holder of U.S. Treasury debt.

The latest numbers show China now holding $585 billion in Treasury paper � about 20% of all Treasury paper in foreign hands, and 10% of the total both foreign and domestic. And since Treasury doesn't keep tabs on who holds its paper domestically, China is likely Uncle Sam's biggest creditor, period. (In fact, those percentages might be higher still since rumor is that China buys additional Treasuries through other countries.)

So there you have it: Beijing is financing no small portion of the $700 billion bailout.

Sort of puts things in a different perspective when you hear the new president saying essentially, "Damn the deficits, full speed ahead." If someone like David Walker can't convince him a trillion-dollar deficit is a problem, the Chinese certainly will if they decide they don't want to keep financing that trillion-dollar deficit at record-low interest rates.

At that point, the new president will learn the same lesson Bill Clinton did, when he hissed in disbelief, "You mean to tell me that the success of the [economic] program and my reelection hinges on the Federal Reserve and a bunch of f��g bond traders?"

As long as the power elite remains in thrall to Alexander Hamilton's notion that a national debt is a "national blessing," yes.

#21 Desidooru Saloon on 2008-11-19 22:36 (Reply)

So we and China are joined at the hip? We finally got them right where we want them. :)

#21.1 Luther McLeod on 2008-11-19 22:40 (Reply)

Yep, they got us right where we want 'em --a business partner who has plenty incentive not to go back to Inchon with the Marine Corps -

#21.1.1 buddy larsen on 2008-11-19 22:51 (Reply)

Yes indeedy, Luther ... As Admiral Chesty Puller once said in the midst of battle, "the enemy are in front of us, the enemy are behind us, the enemy are to the right and left of us. They can't get away now!"

Marianne

#22 Marianne Matthews on 2008-11-19 22:50 (Reply)

MM, that's just too weird that we'd both at the same time cite the same highly obscure reference from so far afield. Gen'l Puller's famous comment was made in the Korean War, i think at Inchon. tho maybe at the frozen Chosin --but even so, it's still a piebald co-inky-dinky --

#22.1 buddy larsen on 2008-11-19 23:03 (Reply)

A great... "piebald co-inky-dinky". Fantastic.

It was an advance to the rear comment from ol' Chesty. At the frozen Chosin.

We've spirit left... lot's of it. We can't afford to sell ourselves short, not now. Nor ever.

The world does depend on us. No matter the nay-sayers.

#22.1.1 Luther McLeod on 2008-11-19 23:28 (Reply)

Amen. we can stand fast. not really sure what that means, other than, i don't plan to go bananas.

#22.1.1.1 buddy larsen on 2008-11-20 00:38 (Reply)

Fed Credit:

If you do actual research you can see the credit rise and thus can tell us that this increase by the FED in Fed credit made it rise "to a record $2.198 trillion, with a historic 9-wk increase of $1.310 trillion. Fed Credit has expanded $1.325 trillion y-t-d (171% annualized) and $1.332 trillion y-o-y (154%)."

I gasp in amazement that the total sum of Fed-supplied credit to the banks, accumulated bit by bit since the Fed was founded in 1913, totals $2.19 trillion, more than half of which was added in the last 9 weeks alone! Hahaha! We are so freaking doomed! Hahahaha!

I notice that nobody else was laughing with me, as the Hollow Laugh Of The Damned (HLOTD) is not widespread enough yet, as first you have to get through the other "stages of shock", namely Denial, Anger, Fear and Bargaining before you reach Acceptance of the situation and you realize that, yes, we are freaking doomed because we overly expanded money and credit, just like all of history and the Austrian school of economics long ago proved, and which has now been proved again. Thus the HLOTD.

And if yin equals yang, and if karma has to level, then the bust that follows the expiring boom of the last whole third of a century ought to be One Big Mutha Fkr.

But creating staggering sums of money is not just what we Americans are doing, but everybody else is doing it, too! For example, the Wall Street Journal reports that the $586 billion Chinese have their own "Social Stabilization" stimulus plan, which "will go toward building highways, railroads and airports."

This, in case you are wondering, is in addition to the massive infrastructure spending that "had been increasing by an average of 20% annually for the past 30 years", and which has resulted in a "national highway system that is scheduled for completion this year" after "30,000 miles of expressway were built in the past decade."

Now, the new plan is for the highway system to "stretch 53,000 miles by 2020, surpassing the 47,000 miles of interstate roads in the U.S currently", which is comparable since "China has roughly the same land area as the continental U.S."

I bring this up because it is said to be part of president-elect Obama's plan to also increase infrastructure spending as part of a big stimulus plan, and when you add it all together, I can't help but figure that the one sure-fire investment for the Whole Freaking Next Decade (WFND) is obviously cement and inflation.

#23 Mogambo on 2008-11-19 22:51 (Reply)

Are we headed for an DOW of 7500? Probably. Are prople buying things where you live? I live in Texas. We read about this and watch it on the news programs. Each person is making this sound and look worse. May be to get a few more viewers or readers. Locally, you can't see anything about a recession. Real estate is doing better than last year this time. There are a few more repo's than last year, but they are being snapped up. I myself am closing on a new home tomorrow. Had no problems getting a loanat a decent fixed rate for thirty years.

Questions 6 and 7 are a little more complicated. All economics are based on emotion to some extent. Prices are based on desire, greed, perceived need, or fear. Has this anything to do with Obama? To some extent, yes. He has sold himself on the "hope of change." But what kind of change and to what effect. I have never seen stockholders who felt comfortable with uncertainty.

#24 Crippled Gnome on 2008-11-19 22:59 (Reply)

Texas has created over half of all new jobs in the last decade, some talking head said recently --Detroit ought to move here --not much union lunacy, low-low taxation, lihght regulations, not many leftists outside the Univ of Texas' Austin campus. Michigan is just the opposite, and is apparently, like the Star Trek crew or toilet paper, circling Uranus looking for Klingons.

#24.1 buddy larsen on 2008-11-19 23:12 (Reply)

SAY GOODBYE TO CITIGROUP, HELLO MASSIVE INFLATION

The market is losing confidence in Citigroup. In the wake of some planned balance-sheet maneuvers, it isn't tough to see why.

On Monday, Citigroup Chief Executive Vikram Pandit gave a presentation on the firm's financial condition during a town-hall meeting. This followed an announcement that job cuts this year would reach 50,000.

Largely overlooked in presentation materials released to investors was a disclosure that this quarter the firm would reclassify about $80 billion in assets. Those assets wouldn't have to be marked to market prices. Or they could be held in a way that keeps such losses from hitting earnings.

That has unnerved investors, especially since the holdings involved aren't garden-variety assets. Instead, they include risky holdings such as collateralized debt obligations -- structured securities that have already led to billions in write-downs.

Mr. Pandit's rationale for the move: The assets could eventually bounce back in value. Investors have heard that one before and don't believe it. If anything, the move has only made investors more skeptical about Citigroup's ability to withstand mounting losses. The bank says it is sufficiently capitalized.

By reclassifying assets, Citigroup will avoid some mark-to-market losses, at least for some loans. Securities such as CDOs will be marked, but gains or losses will be quarantined in shareholders' equity.

True, losses quarantined in this way still lead to lower shareholder equity. But they generally aren't counted in key measures of regulatory capital.

That may help improve Citigroup's Tier 1 ratio. But jaded investors rightly want the bank to actually strengthen its books, not pretty them up.

*************

Dow @ 6300
Don't look for your standard of living to return to previous levels in this lifetime.

I steadfastly say that neither the Federal Reserve, nor the federal government, are going to sit still when people are whining about "shrinking day care, collapsing retail sales, rising unemployment, record foreclosures, massive credit card defaults, bankrupt insurers, collapsing auto sales, sinking commercial real estate, plunging commodity prices, and dozens of other things" when they have a fiat currency that they can instantly create, with unlimited abandon, which they promised to do, will do, and are already doing.

Thus, with a staggering, unbelievable amount of money being created, these and many more deflationary problems will soon be just a quaint memory as voluntary fiscal and monetary restraints around the world are being thrown wholesale into the dumpster even as we speak, and humongous "economic stimulus plans" financed by massive increases in fiat money are being trotted out across the globe, all meaning that inflation will rise and rise.

As if to prove me right, the article went on to note that Professor Steve Hanke, formerly with Credit Suisse and now a senior fellow at the Cato Institute in the United States, said that this month, "Zimbabwe's annual inflation had soared to 2.79 quintillion percent", which is the inevitable result of the moron government of Zimbabwe spending decades literally printing all the paper money that makes such inflation possible!

In case you were wondering, "a quintillion is a figure with 18 zeroes and is a rung above a quadrillion", which I will helpfully write out as 2,790,000,000,000,000,000%!!!!!

you should still need no explanation as to the significance of inflation that is measured in quintillions of percent, or even inflation measured in quadrillions of percent, or inflation measured in trillions of percent, or inflation measured in billions of percent, or inflation measured in millions of percent, or inflation measured in thousands of percent, or inflation measured in hundreds of percent, or inflation measured in tens of percent, or Any Freaking Inflation At All (AFIAA) that is more than zero, because what it means is that Bad, Bad Times (BBT) are a-coming as all of this money starts chasing a static supply of goods and services and people get Very, Very Upset (VVU).

And besides the fact that inflation in the USA is already running between about 5% and 10% (depending on your source), it is going to get worse and worse, and thus a BBT and a VVU are a-coming.

#25 David Reilly on 2008-11-19 23:19 (Reply)

Where do you get inflation stats at 5% to 10%?

#25.1 Barrett on 2008-11-20 00:41 (Reply)

Barrett - these guys are trolls. They're having fun.
`

#25.1.1 Meta on 2008-11-20 00:45 (Reply)

You are probably right. I just don't like incorrect or questionable information to go unchallenged. It can create an illusion that such claims are factual if repeated enough and it plays into the whole fear thing. It sounds like the MSM.

#25.1.1.1 Barrett on 2008-11-20 00:53 (Reply)

Check the data and theory Meta. This is hardly simply troll material just because you haven't seen the names before.

The Citigroup info was on TV tonight and in todays WSJ. Other info is from trade journals, the Economist, etc..this is not simply junk to be brushed off as "Troll" fodder just because you're unfamiliar with it. E.g. the last one by Mort. I am confident he is talking about the developing rise in commercial REITS unwinding in the same fashion that housing is doing. That is the latest blip developing as businesses, just as homeowners went too speculative and Wall Street securitized the commercial end of the street. That shoe has not dropped but is just now becoming unlaced.

You think we've seen the last of the layoffs? Don't think unemploymeny can reach 10%? It's a bet I wouldn't want to make.

Think this is made up?

" If you do actual research you can see the credit rise and thus can tell us that this increase by the FED in Fed credit made it rise "to a record $2.198 trillion, with a historic 9-wk increase of $1.310 trillion. Fed Credit has expanded $1.325 trillion y-t-d (171% annualized) and $1.332 trillion y-o-y (154%)."

If you do then you do the research and prove it wrong. Bet you a slice of cheesecake you can't. It's Fed Facts and Fun as they inflate us into hyperinflation.

No Troll, just facts.

#25.1.1.2 Troll? on 2008-11-20 01:35 (Reply)

Dude,

First, you did not answer my question about where you got your inflation rate data.

Second, the expansion of the Feds balance sheet is only a piece of the puzzle. It needs to be looked at in conjunction with the collapse of interbank lending among other things.

Please do not over-simplify things.

And, oh by the way, everyone here understands that if all credit is destroyed and we return to a cash economy that all kinds of horrific statistics will result.

Please give us analysis with factual support no just apacolyptic comments with data of unknown origin.

We can then discuss or debate it and choose to agree or disagree.

Thanks.

#25.1.1.2.1 Barrett on 2008-11-20 10:02 (Reply)

Suggest you do your own research.

#25.1.1.2.1.1 Ox on 2008-11-20 12:19 (Reply)

Did you even bother to look up the FED stats that someone presented or did you just start typing?

You don't need me or the others to have a discussion, you can take the responsibility on yourself of doing some of the stat work and refutation of the bubble theory.

I don't do spoon feeding or your homework.

#25.1.1.2.1.2 Nero on 2008-11-20 12:24 (Reply)

After demand collapses, supply collapses. Yes, dear reader, it's all part of Nature's plan. In the beginning, there is The bubble. Then, the bubble pops.
Then, people look around and take fright. They realize they've got to stop spending. So, demand collapses. Then, stocks collapse too. And asset prices fall too - especially for speculative assets. As orders and asset prices tumble�merchants and manufacturers cut back too. Jobs are lost. And then, with less income�demand collapses some more.
Then you have a depression when dealing with the numbers we're dealing with.

Now take that on as your discussion. It's Economics 101.

#25.1.1.2.1.3 Bernardo on 2008-11-20 12:28 (Reply)

Bet you a slice of cheesecake you can't prove it right.

Get a grip.
`

#25.1.1.2.2 Meta on 2008-11-20 11:32 (Reply)

The Great Wall Street Malthusian algorithm 1+1= 3

#26 Quant on 2008-11-19 23:26 (Reply)

Reilly is correct.

After demand collapses, supply collapses. Yes, dear reader, it's all part of Nature's plan. In the beginning, there is The bubble. Then, the bubble pops.
Then, people look around and take fright. They realize they've got to stop spending. So, demand collapses. Then, stocks collapse too. And asset prices fall too - especially for speculative assets. As orders and asset prices tumble�merchants and manufacturers cut back too. Jobs are lost. And then, with less income�demand collapses some more.

But then, eventually, the bubble is completely flattened. Weak companies have gone out of business. Good companies are holding on, but producing less. Many retail shops have closed. Many malls have gone out of business. Supplies of goods and services have fallen as far as they're going to fall. Then, with supplies tight, prices begin to rise again.
The whole process takes time. There are millions of mistakes in need of correction. Each one has to be marked down, written off, worked out, and forgotten. We still have to see the show trials. And the perp walks. And the kvetching�the complaining�the whining�the wimpering. The bailouts and the payoffs� The bottles of whiskey and the loaded revolvers. It's all still ahead!
Dow 5,000�
10% - 15% unemployment�
Another 20% off house prices�
There's a lot of ruin left to go�

#27 Mort on 2008-11-19 23:53 (Reply)

The only analog I can find to our current mess is the Nordic meltdown in the early 1990s when many of the banks were nationalized, unemployment went from 2.5% to north of 15% and home prices declined dramatically after the debt fueled housing bubble burst.

I am too tired right now to find the references for this.

#27.1 Barrett on 2008-11-20 00:46 (Reply)

Sweden, barrett --the bank nationalization was the turn.

#27.1.1 buddy larsen on 2008-11-20 01:08 (Reply)

Dow Declines 427.47; Year's Drop Near 40%

#28 Mort on 2008-11-20 00:46 (Reply)

This truly did begin with Jimmy Carter. Then we allowed the dems to expanded the cash flow of the gaming/union combine with their gaming for the Indians, and now we are not even sure who pulled the plug on us this time? LIBOR ?
We should have been able to articulate with as much force as the other side--with as much rhetorical skill as the other side. We have been the frog in the pot of cool water under whom the fire was being turned ever higher and higher--now we are nearly cooked. WHO here has the will to help to truly organize a group in their own community? Don't forget that right now the democrats are taking that extra seat in the senate. They will do with Franken--just the same way they stole the gubernatorial election in WA state in 2004. The deals are already done--Obama, et al. have agreed to fully support Israel in exchange for a free hand to do their socialist thingies. Oh, by the way, who did you say stood up for AG Gonzales when he tried to do the right thing? Not the GOP that's for sure. The other side made a great example of that guy of what would happen to anyone who stands up to them. But, then they started doing that a very long time ago and no one from our camp has organized a loud and visible resistance to their bullying. Just kind of whined a lot.

I think we will never see good times again--not in our lifetime. I also do not believe you should be surprised by the professor at Georgetown U (Jesuit) preferring a global governemnt over nation states. It should be no more of a surprise that the Christians (led by the Catholic church) believe Globalization is the more "Christian" way.than it is that no one here should be surprised to know that the unions of this country want "all of the working classes" to be under one umbrella ! Geez where have you been? you don't really think either the Christians or the unions are going to do something about illegal immigration do you? Well then if you are not going to do something about taking care of our own first--you can be assured this place will be just like India, Mexico, and China in a very, very, very near future. You see you can't send money, and jobs oversees and then bring in millions of workers illegally and expect to balance the books.

But then again, if it is going to be as bad as I think it will be I am damn grateful you are all here to share --MF has saved my sanity on many a rainy day.

Oh, and by the way for those of you who are unemployed now you know what life is like for whistleblowers--no conservative attorney will defend them, and if they blow the whistle on the liberals they will be destroyed--you folks gonna do anything about that?

#29 apple pie on 2008-11-20 02:21 (Reply)

after reading these posts I truly feel depressed. I have to remember not to start my day like this again.

#30 opie109 on 2008-11-20 07:12 (Reply)

But opie, you can just go home and launch into one of Aunt Bee's apple pies. Then run over to your dad's office and get Deputy Fife to take ya fishin'. That ain't so bad!

#30.1 buddy larsen on 2008-11-20 08:17 (Reply)

Charge of the Light Brigade

Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
"Forward, the Light Brigade!
Charge for the guns!" he said:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

"Forward, the Light Brigade!"
Was there a man dismayed?
Not tho' the soldiers knew
Someone had blundered:
Theirs was not to make reply,
Theirs was not to reason why,
Theirs was but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

Cannon to the right of them,
Cannon to the left of them,
Cannon in front of them
Volleyed and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of Hell,
Rode the six hundred.

Flashed all their sabres bare,
Flashed as they turned in air,
Sab'ring the gunners there,
Charging an army, while
All the world wondered:
Plunging in the battery smoke,
Right through the line they broke;
Cossack and Russian
Reeled from the sabre-stroke
Shattered and sundered.
Then they rode back, but not--
Not the six hundred.

Cannon to the right of them,
Cannon to the left of them,
Cannon in front of them
Volleyed and thundered;
Stormed at with shot and shell,
While horse and hero fell,
They that fought so well,
Came thro' the jaws of Death,
Back from the mouth of Hell,
All that was left of them,
Left of the six hundred.

When can their glory fade?
Oh, the wild charge they made!
All the world wondered.
Honor the charge they made!
Honor the Light Brigade,
Noble Six Hundred!

Alfred Lord Tennyson

#31 buddy larsen on 2008-11-20 09:27 (Reply)

Me neither Buddy L: they ain't gonna get me to sit quiet! I just need to be able to look around and see real faces that will also stand for what we had--sorry, don't see many of them from here!

#32 apple pie on 2008-11-20 10:17 (Reply)

Do not assume the linear nature of what is happening. There is a factor that can overturn any of these numbers, trends, unwindings, burstings and bleatings. Humans do not react in linear fashion even if the brainwashing they receive is purely linear logic.

#33 Phil on 2008-11-20 11:23 (Reply)

Apple Pie & Buddy,

What makes you think that within a year or two MF or any number of other internet sites will be available? You know Obama is going to muzzle Rush; many internet sites are just written extensions of his though. They muzzle the internet with �content censors� so that equal time can be maintained and thought controlled.

What makes you believe the Obama Reich will not institute an internal police force as he has already promised? He certainly has enough impressionable young people to train in �Community Harmony� squads, complete with the power of arrest.

You may not want to go quietly but if that stuff starts how are you going to be heard?

Obama�s going to get effective control of the Senate, thus the trifecta will be done and as never before we will have a Marxist totalitarian messianic figure running our country.

Now what are you going to do?

#34 Habu on 2008-11-20 12:09 (Reply)

habu, then we welcome the opportunity to defeat the coup, Ghandi-style of course (cough), then repair the entire system via raising the voting age to 28 or 35, excepting the uniformed services.

I hope you've seen the "Obama Voters" video now circulating.

People who haven't bothered to learn the most basic facts of what their vote is voting for, should not be voting. That is, unless we are tired of this nation and want to break it up.

#34.1 buddy larsen on 2008-11-20 13:02 (Reply)

Now that's a policy long overdue...make universal sufferage a bit less universal.

#34.1.1 phil g on 2008-11-20 13:25 (Reply)

we should start figuring it out. The first step is ti accept that to be human is to be exclusionist --we restrict all sorts of acts to those who've qualified. How can we open the most critical act of all, to anyone who hasn't died during his/her first 18 years?

Another solution --could be part of the 'citizenship & suffrage enabling act' --would be to emulate our civil War rule whereby a draftee could hire a sub to serve for him, and just go ahead and frankly open a suffrage market. If you've qualified to vote, you're welcome to sell it to any other qualified voter. Buyers couldn't resell, and no one could buy (& cast) more than say 100 votes. This would buy out --for fair value --the casual & unconcerned who often vote on candidate's smile and/or hair, and simultaneously rightfully gain for the buyer an electing power commensurate with his interest & commitment to the election. technology would prevent abuse, and the whole matter would be open and aboveboard. In order to ensure better superbviosion & oversight, we would have an 'election week' instead of an 'election day'. many nations do this part already --the crowded crush of one-day voting has no point anyway and merely invites abuse & fraud.

This market would make everyone happy except the beneficiaries of the current chaos & applied ignorance, and best of all would improve our political class and have a very salutary effect on the nation and the populace, esp in the areas of security, prosperity, civic pride, and general courtesy.

#34.1.1.1 buddy larsen on 2008-11-20 14:55 (Reply)

The Constitution gave the vote to white male landowners. Why?

Was it so that they, who were all white male landowners, could enrich themsleves at the expense of the greater population?

Or is there a principle imbedded in the prescription?

I have never done a full study on the subject, but given the thoughtfulness of the framers I am would venture a guess that it is the later.

To own land, one needed to have achieved a certain level of economic success. Intelligence, developed by education or from the school of hard knocks, was needed to achieve success.

I think the framers understood the risk of concentrating the vote in a certain segment, but I think they probable also knew that the smarter folks would vote for the greater good knowing that it would also benefit them in the long run.

This is a long way of saying that there were once qualifications for voting priviledges. I think that we sgould discuss what the current qualifications should be.

#34.1.1.1.1 Barrett on 2008-11-20 17:05 (Reply)

Buddy, as you know I have had Obama's endgame figured out since 1969 when I first read Das Capital and other works by Marx.

We have the very scary situation this time around where our elected leader has already been elevated to levels once only associated with dictators or saints. Obama is no saint but a very crafty speaker who has the full backing of our major enemies and no doubt received money from foreign sources via ACORN in the election.

Right now he is working overtime to win Georgia so that he will have a bulletproof Senate and thus a government that can do anything they want ...anything ...cut off or manage the Internet..yep ...come for your guns ..yep....delare marshall law,,yep...ration gas...yep ...... force us inot mass transit..yep...you name it they will be able to do it ...forget the Bill of Rights.

We are headed for a good deal of civil unrest. Molon Labe, for I will not submit to Marxist socialism that tramples on my rights that government can't legally touch , even if they are elected. No election was ever meant to be able to trump the Bill of Rights, but Obama will chip away at them.

The most discomforting thing is that over 50% of the population believes the government should do this stuff. The non producers will be his spear chuckers and there are a mess of'um.

#34.1.2 Habu on 2008-11-20 14:54 (Reply)

Hello I love your website
I just a normal person
I work on the internet and make money from this site:
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You can also try this work they pay nice money
Take care, and keep update your page

#35 XYFloyd (Link) on 2008-11-20 14:15 (Reply)

Just checked the famous Winston Churchill comment about giving up: "... never, never, never, never --- in nothing, great or small, large or petty --- never give up, except to convictions of honour and good sense. Never yield to force, never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy." Winston Churchill, my lifetime hero since the dark days of World War II.

Good words to live by.

Marianne

#36 Marianne Matthews on 2008-11-20 14:24 (Reply)

File under Knowledge is Power .. 11/20/08

Yields on all treasuries at all time lows.
S & P at 11 1/2 year low
DOW off 445 points today
One third of the S & P 500 today would not qualify to be in that index today.
Citibank now a penny stock..traded a whopping 720 million shares today.

That's just the part of the picture on another day in our markets.

Christmas present suggestions for people you know who work on Wall Street:
1. tin cup
2. bag of apples
3. bag of # 2 pencils

#37 Habu on 2008-11-20 16:19 (Reply)

More Knowledge.

Article from MarketWatch:

30 reasons for Great Depression 2 by 2011
New-New Deal, bailouts, trillions in debt, antitax mindset spell disaster.

http://tinyurl.com/6pquum

Also with regard to Citibank being a penny stock along with GM,F, and any stock under $5.00....most mutual funds are prohibited from holding stocks with a value under $5.00 so the mutual funds will be forced to sell their holdings in Citibank.

#38 Habu on 2008-11-20 16:38 (Reply)

I am convinced after reading all these posts that all of us could solve our country's problems better than our elected nim wits.

There is only one thing better than ability.
Does anyone know what it is?
It's the ability to recognize people with ability.
I have this gift.
Beldar Knight of The Crossed Ewes, Knight of the Nut Nuzzlers!

Habu, Its get in line time for black combat rifles,. That's if you can find them. Hope you and the Mrs are well. Are you still bench pressing some God awful weight?

#39 jappy on 2008-11-20 17:38 (Reply)

Habu can�t lift squat! Me, OTOH, was just last week amazing my neighbors with my macho manly man capabilities moving 8 tons worth of 8� X 12� dia cedar logs onto my property where I�ll process them into furniture, pathway edging and firewood. One has to do something while they�re unemployed.

I thought Paulson and Bernanke were wizards. If it�s all about confidence and cash flow, what�s wrong with getting more heads involved with figuring all this stuff out and trying solutions ONLY until things get moving again? Hell, today we've got instant information, criticism, debate, brainstorming via the internet. All they had in FDRs time was a big conference table and some fireside chat. If we put all our heads together (and with my macho man manliness) we should be able to come out of this alright.

#40 commander clopfelter (Link) on 2008-11-20 19:02 (Reply)

The real geniuses don't go into politics. They're too smart. I'm all for a metric of MMM to determine who makes our decisions for us. (That would be macho man manliness) Commander, as you are already a commander, you're it. Jappy, as Knight of the Crossed Ewes and Knight of the Nut Nuzzlers, you are Knight of State. You have that way about you - the scimitar thrust and the gentle pull-back where you wish everyone's family well. Perfect. Habu is Chief of Security and all NSA goings-on. Luther is Minister Manliness of Diplomacy, and Buddy is his chief liason officer to clean up when Luther lays 'em low. Marianne is Press Secretary - and a darn good one, at that. Barrett is our Finance Baron, a man of great sang froid - important in times like these, and he gets a bullet-proof vest from Habu. Pajack is Keeper of Records and will hold Saturday night radio shows telling stories of the Week in Government. I will be a fake Senator whose job it will be to throw a chair and cause a daily ruckus like the Taiwanese do when they have meetings. Habu will issue me a helmet disguised as a long blonde wig. My job ostensibly keeps uppityness from happening in Congress and if chair-throwing doesnt' do it, I will vaseline the toilet seats and put a whoopee cushion in Barney Frank's chair. I was thinking of putting a thumb tack in Harry Reid's chair, but his ass is already a thumb tack so I will put some of Billy Mays' Great Glue in it.
`

#41 Meta on 2008-11-20 19:39 (Reply)

Inspired... and a great way forward. Six months and it would be a better world. :)

#41.1 Luther McLeod on 2008-11-20 20:47 (Reply)

Actually, I commanded a virtual starship online. But the crew mutinied. I don�t wanna talk about it.

Anyways, I thought Bush was hiring right with Henry Paulson - eagle scout all American Harvard MBA success story. One of his predecessors, Robert Rubin (another Harvard top scholar achiever dude, but a Clintonite) proclaimed that we�re all in �good hands with Paulson�. I think most taxpayers sorta wanted to believe in that.

But then it looked like Goldman Sachs was going to use some of our bailout cash for executive bonuses. And then it got out that Paulson and Rubin had been executive buddies at Goldman Sachs.

With the resulting noise, much of it from the internet, they�re now talking about forgoing bonuses.

I�ve been saying it for years now. There are two major political parties, but being an Insider trumps them both. It�s all about checks and balances.

#41.2 commander clopfelter (Link) on 2008-11-20 20:50 (Reply)

Etamay,
Itway isway anway onorhay otay ebay Ecuritysay Iefchay.
Eretoforehay allway ofway ymay ommunicationscay illway ebay
encryptedway inway igpay atinlay osay eythay an'rcay ebay
interceptedway ybay Uslimsmay andway AQWAY

H

#41.3 Habu on 2008-11-20 21:54 (Reply)

habu, you sound like you got a head code, or maybe the asian flew. better hit the hey. don't forget to take plenty of ass purring to keep that temper cheer down

#41.3.1 buddy larsen on 2008-11-20 23:04 (Reply)

(pssst buddy) I used the Pig Latin Translator to code my response from the Muslims. Thay don't read Pib Latin) That's on the QT.

#41.3.1.1 Habu on 2008-11-21 01:57 (Reply)

Senator Meta,
Thank you for the honors. I have the preliminary broadcast permit in hand, and will inform as soon as it is determined on which frequency I shall transmit. Still working on that bicycle-powered transmitter. Permission requested to intersperse broadcasts with frequent Dylan recordings. This will serve multiple purposes: to confuse our domestic enemies into believing they are on our side; to offend our enemies abroad such that they will be less likely to tune in; disgust those who are attempting to infiltrate our ranks and send them fleeing with their ears bleeding. Set lists will relay secret messages to our faithful ranks using a "word of the week" embedded in song to sing current events and upcoming plans. Let's practice. This week's message is to be found in the song Up To Me... and as my favorite Marxist used to say, "The secret woyd is 'enemy'..."

Everything went from bad to worse, money never changed a thing,
Death kept followin', trackin' us down, at least I heard your bluebird sing.
Now somebody's got to show their hand, time is an enemy,
I know you're long gone,
I guess it must be up to me.

#41.4 Pajak on 2008-11-21 05:41 (Reply)

Please allow me also to orfficially express my own delight at the prospect working in clothes contact with the orffice of Senator Meta as Lasagnaa Orfficer to Dip Lomacy Minister McLuther Leod.

While I shall regret taking leave, not to mention copious quantities of orffice supplies, here at the Department of Redundancy Department, I hope to continue to treasure the many warm mammories of a long carrear defending the pubic interest as a deadicated civil serpent here at the Dep't of Redundancy Dep't's Main Department dep't.

I shall begin my new duty by remembering the words planned to someday grace a memorial plaque dedicated to the future achievements of the dep't's long-running War on Procrastination program:

"They said it couldn't
be done,

But with a smile he went right
to it!

He tackled that job
That couldn't be done!

He couldn't do it!"

`

#41.4.1 buddy larsen on 2008-11-21 13:21 (Reply)

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2008/0704.html

Good words on what we are about --incl Geo Washington's farewll warning. If you find Mr. Nyquist compelling (as i do), all his columns are a click away at this link --see header "past columns".

#42 buddy larsen on 2008-11-20 23:58 (Reply)

I personally see some grim humor in this.

Citigroup presently holds my mortgage. Which, if my wife cannot find a job, we will default on about January 2009. We will then be foreclosed and have to declare bankruptcy (we cannot walk away from our mortgage debts the way they do in California).

However, it looks like my lender will go bankrupt before I do. Of course it will just be replaced by some other creditor, but I won't feel so bad when I get the foreclosure default notice berating me for not paying my mortgage.

#43 Jim on 2008-11-21 00:02 (Reply)

Jim, rhetorical question here: if you were not Jim but somebody else, if you were say, Jim's wise old uncle, what advice would you give Jim?

#43.1 buddy larsen on 2008-11-21 04:25 (Reply)

The uncle would tell him to unload his house while there still a chance there might be a buyer out there, and then he and his family move in with his mom.

#43.1.1 Jim on 2008-11-21 13:10 (Reply)

any port in a storm, Jim --and besides, it could be fun for all, couldn't it?

#43.1.1.1 buddy larsen on 2008-11-21 13:27 (Reply)

G5. I knew that plane.

DJIA up 500 because of Timothy Geithner?

#44 commander clopfelter (Link) on 2008-11-21 16:14 (Reply)

Maggie's Farm

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