We are a commune of inquiring, skeptical, politically centrist, capitalist, anglophile, traditionalist New England Yankee humans, humanoids, and animals with many interests beyond and above politics. Each of us has had a high-school education (or GED), but all had ADD so didn't pay attention very well, especially the dogs. Each one of us does "try my best to be just like I am," and none of us enjoys working for others, including for Maggie, from whom we receive neither a nickel nor a dime. Freedom from nags, cranks, government, do-gooders, control-freaks and idiots is all that we ask for.
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Sunday, March 23. 2008
Oh man, do I love getting my investment advice in the comments section of Maggie's Farm. It's Bretton Woods crossed with the Algonquin Roundtable around here.
If you huddle around our investment topic entries, a virtual hobo campfire, burning hyperinflated banknotes, appears in the comments. Everybody's nervously fingering their Mauser triggers and wondering what will happen if they're the first guy to fall asleep with a pocket full of Spanish Main money in their raggedy (but thank god, not leveraged or made in China) clothing. It's great fun.
There are, as they say in the garden, a few hardy perennials. Let's have it one more time, for old time's sake:-There's going to be a run on banks! They'll run out of currency and you'll have to settle for deposit slips and lollipops! Um yeah, sure. There's $150,000 on your average mall ATM. But we're all going to be at the window at Mr.Potter's bank trying to get our doubloons before our neighbor does. Then we'll bury it in the yard! It'll be grand.
-Buy gold! Gold I say! Yeah sure; of course it lost ten percent of its value last week, but hey, it recently passed the value it had - in 1980. Fantastic investment, that. You would have done better to hoard Member's Only jackets since then and sold them at flea markets near colleges now. You are laboring under the illusion that you're hoarding a superior sort of money, and all you've done is gone from being an equities investor, or a plain saver, to a commodity futures investor. And with all your money in one material. Profoundly dumb -- unless you're Hillary Clinton posting on the Internet under an assumed name. And the Internet doesn't work that way. Everybody is really a guy pretending to be a hot seventeen year old girl.
-I bought loose diamonds! This is my favorite. I remember this one fondly since the first time I heard it on a low-rent golf course in the eighties. A guy wearing hand-me-down clothes telling you he's got all his money in "investment grade diamonds" that he knows how to sell in all the international hot-spots he read about in CondeNast in the dentist's office once. "You know," he says sotto voce while shanking a putt, "for when the really heavy sh*t comes down."
Let's do an experiment in "investment grade" diamonds, (snerk) shall we? Buy one. Walk right back into the same place you bought it and talk to another clerk. Offer to sell it to him. He'll offer you 30% below wholesale. You paid retail. Of course, if the world turns to the Road Warrior (snerk) every fat housewife has a diamond, superior in every way to yours, (the skinny wives with big boobs have ten) and holds it simply for sentimental reasons. So in a real pinch, everybody sells theirs and your diamonds are less than worthless. And of course, you're assuming that even with running gun battles in the streets over the last Twinkie in the world, the diamond merchants will still be open. Maybe not. At any rate, it won't be a total loss -- you could make metal cut-off saw blades with your diamonds if you've got enough glue, I guess, and go into plumbing, which is an honest profession.I tell you what: let's test our hypothesis. Go into the same diamond store with a $100 fiat currency bill (oh noes! the debbil's money!). Ask as a favor if they'd break it into small bills so you can get money for the meter. Now go back in and give them all the small bills back and ask for your hundred. I doubt they'll offer you $30.
But the doomsayers are probably right. You will save a lot of money on your water bill if you drink your own urine to wash down the Kruggerands you're eating in your bunker. I think we can all agree on that.
I'm going to break with a long tradition of never offering anybody any advice. Here's mine: Happy Easter everybody! Use your worthless fiat currency to buy a great big ham and a bottle of wine! Enjoy! And God bless you, every one!
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but gold is still up 40% this year -- if you bought it a few months ago and then sold it last week, you'd have an annualized gain of "real real big".
I have visited and read literally ten of thousands of websites, with topics ranging from the profoundly serious to the madcap. I have seen comments offered by hundreds of thousands of all sorts of people, from profound to tin-foil hat style.
In all that time, I have only encountered one person who is universally liked and greeted warmly wherever he appears. And that man is Buddy Larsen.
Happy Easter Buddy.
"I have visited and read literally ten of thousands of websites, with topics ranging from the profoundly serious to the madcap. I have seen comments offered by hundreds of thousands of all sorts of people, from profound to tin-foil hat style."
translation I'm a geek
Well what a nice thing to say -- and after i disputed your point on gold. So, feeling like an ingrate, I shall take it back -- after all, the number of regular folks (retail investors) who actually executed that perfect trade is probably small enough to be the exception that proves the point. There I go -- nice, but probably spineless.
Happy Easter to you, too, R. And to everybody!
I'm going to interrupt my practicing pentatonic patterns on my tenor sax while blog reading (that's to insure I don't really absorb either activity!LOL!!) to agree about Mr. Larsen.
Are you saying that following Habu's investment advice might have not been wise move? Dohhhhh!!!!!
If I really thought that the world was going the way of "Mad Max" then I'd stock up on guns, ammo, toilet paper, vitamins and coffee. But I haven't thought about that kind of future since the Carter years.
hahahahaha love the post. yep I had hoards of gold but sold most of it and made a damn good return but then I did not buy the original stash so the moral of the story is everyone should be so lucky to have a fairy Godmother who buys gold and leaves it to you for a rainy day. Plan on doing that for my kids along with some paintings and stock. the rest is up to them. happy easter!
it's not too difficult to make money when people hand you something of value for free and you sell it. the main village idiot could do that, and you're bragging about it.
did you then make money off that money or does that concept leave you with your eyes glazed over? thought so
know plenty of people who lost loads of money that was handed to them. guess you weren't given any huh? no need to be mean anonymous just makes you look green and slimy. The best kind of money is the kind you give away so the more I make the more I give and so on.......
so the answer is no you didn't know how to make more money from the money you got for free. too bad. you could have given away so much more
but you just turned into a no brain mouth breather.
what a sucker
don't look now but you just revealed your double digit IQ.
"but sold most of it and made a damn good return"
one does not make a return by selling inherited items. one makes returns off of investments. you had no investment interest in the gold ,you were handed it, and then simply sold it.
it's highly doubtful if you even knew if you made a good deal in selling it. chances are great that since you're not too swift you simply sold it for what the person offered.
opie, you really shouldn't try to act like a "player", you're not.
wrote an entire paragraph and then decided you are not worth it. Sod off!
opie quick . please write another thread like We need another bubble
the response to that one was Z E R O
This way to the bearded lady, the albino monkey and the two headed Chinese man...the barker doing his best to add content to the show. Good effort Roger.
Who buys diamonds retail? I guess those who haven't been around the globe ,know people, and how to bargain. Those who couldn't find Surat, India on a map, or once there know the right bazaar to go to. Buy , walk out with a 25% profit immediately.
Roger, have you circumnavigated the globe? Where have you been in the world...all the continents? Gee, I didn't think so ... but I have... You worth over a million (in cash, not counting real estate fully paid for in Montana and Florida?) didn't think so. Have you ever even been in a bar room brawl or physical fight of any type? Served in the military? Just calibrating you Roger as it appears you're more than likely a MENSA wannbe .
Have you worked in the investment world for 15 years or more?
Ever hear of the FSLIC? S&L crisis in 1989 busted it immediately..it served the same function as the FDIC does.....are you comfortable with having the FDIC backing every $100 deposit with 8 cents?
Familiar with hedges against inflation, such as gold...know why it went to $800 an oz in the late 1980's (were you even born yet?) inflation at 18% and higher. No one puts all their eggs in one basket, but they do diversify.
It was a funny, content free post you put up but I noticed it was a bit short on what to do when things go bad....
I think you'd make a great right fielder in the T-ball leagues, but for now you're just not competing in the arena. You're just Roger, Artful Dodger.
Good advice, ham is warming in the oven and the wine is breathing. Been through these downturns before, invest globally and don't sweat it as long as you can go long term.
The de Hauteville post was like a no calorie soda. The soda has no nutritional value at all but while you're drinking it, it tastes, well, most taste like sh*t but for the moment they taste ok.
Then you throw the can in the trash.
Someone said it was content free ....seems right.
A little gold/silver is always good; but, my favorite long term investment, right now, is scrub land. West Texas comes to mind.
Roger should have taken a look at the graph of the performance of gold versus paper stocks over the last ten years.....here Roger ...
So what's your point? Assuming this graph is accurate, judging from that pro-S&P bulge at the front end I'd bet that all you need do is adjust it back to 11 years or 10.5 years or 12 years and you might see a different current result. Ultimately gold is worth only what some manufacturer can produce with it. When the shit really hits the fan, food will be worth its weight in gold.
I once had a paranoid (but very intelligent) naive young coworker who was convinced that the world was on its last legs (this was 3 or 4 years ago). He wanted to buy gold. He was no dummy, like many posting here, he wanted the actual gold to be delivered directly to him so that he could store it where he could get his mits on it when the inevitable (to him and habu) happened. It amused me when he was shocked by how much more he would need to pay for actual delivery of actual gold. Never mind what risk one takes storing the gold.
Back in the early 80's the band The Kinks (no banjo pickers), who were way too long in the tooth at the time, had a very lame song which probably only I remember, whose very lame chorus was "paranoia the destroyer". Whenever this endoflifeasweknowit crap comes up, it takes days for me to get that damn chorus out of my head.
sure move the goalposts if you don't like what you see
the last 10 years is a good figure to go with..
sorry but there is a major difference in utilizing the latest data from the past ten years which one sees in every prospectus and moving the goals posts such as you wanted to do to manipulate the data.
3,5, and 10 year averages are the norm. you , not being satisfied want to jiggle the data to fit your thesis.
so it's no where near the same. you can attempt to manipulate some of the people but fella you're not quick enough to fool me.
Fool you? No, I'm afraid that would be redundant. Try and grasp the point that the frames of reference (yes, even the customary 10 years) are arbitrary. Using something like the Yahoo finance site, pick a stock and compare it against the S&P for 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, etc. and you will see that one can form opposing conclusions based on the resulting so-called "evidence". These 10-year relative performance graphs can be heavily manipulated by even single day rises and falls in the target entity's position relative to the market as a whole if you pick your start date as a relative low or high point.
But most relevant is my other point that gold is ultimately only good for what it's good for. That is it's true value. Other than that, it might as well be tulips. You can't eat it, you'd be a fool to build shelter with it, it wont keep you warm. In the final endoftheworldasweknowit scenario, it is ultimately useless.
man you are stuck dumb and just keep adding glue. the 3,5, and 10 year averages are not arbitrary in the least. the sec demands prospectus be current every six months and that is not arbitrary. you're exhaustively ignorant of the situation.
OK, one last time before I go to work...They are arbitrary in so far as where they begin. When did the "10 years" begin? Jul 1, 1997? July 10? July 31? What would the graph look like if its 10 years were from Jan. 1, 1998- Jan 1 2008? When doing relative comparisons, picking slightly different start dates can significantly impact your results because you are using two moving standards.
Of course you continue to ignore my main point that ultimately gold is only worth what it can be used to create.
Speaking of stuck dumb...
In today's dollars, 1975 gold at $196 is more like $750 in the current market. And 1980 gold, the peak year at the historical price of $850, would now clock in closer to $2,176 . And remember, this is only what you get using the most conservative market calculation of gold's worth. There are other, even more telling ways to value gold.
Try this on for size...
$38,349 per Ounce!
Remember, for a good part of America's history, every dollar in your pocket was a dollar backed by gold. So it's not so crazy to ask yourself... if America has 8,180 tons - or nearly 261.7 million ounces - of gold in reserve... how many dollars does that buy?
The answer will shock you.
When dollars became unhinged from gold, the printing presses at the Fed cranked up. By 1980, for every ounce of gold in America, the financial system carried $6,966 in cash. That's $1.8 trillion total. But get this, by the end of 2005, the total real money supply shot to over $10 trillion .
That's $38,349 in circulation for every ounce of gold in reserve!
Of course, it's even higher now. The printing presses are still cranking, well into 2007. Only now, it's much harder for you to know how fat the actual money supply has gotten. See, by March 23, 2006... the number had gotten so embarrassing... the Fed actually "retired" a number called "M3," which was the most broad-reaching measure of how much cash floats around in the system .
Yep. Instead of fixing the problem, the politicians just stopped talking about it. Is that any surprise? Fortunately, you don't need Washington's help to get the real picture of what's happening today in the economy... or to find out what's next for the price of gold.
Roger gits it.
Dollars will buy one a ham and a case of beer.
When dollar became unhinged from gold any value based on gold reserves is a fantasy.
The Dow for most of its history has been worth a narrow band somewhere around the mid-twenty ounces of gold. Today, the Dow is worth only 12 or 13 oz. Either the Dow is underpriced, or gold is overpriced, or we're now out of traditional territory and into something new. Perhaps a Dollar that is seen to have the crushing boomer retirement bearing down on retirement & health entitlements, and the Bolshevicks sweeping into office. That little combo is definitely "something new".
So, I see some of you don't like my take on things. I wouldn't want it any other way 'cause while I put my opinions out there they are by no means "the word" Hell nobody, not one economist or analyst has "the word" ..so it's good to see all kinds of opinion.
One of the worlds best and most respected publications had this to say.
Wall Street's crisis
Mar 19th 2008
From The Economist
What went wrong in the financial system—and the long, hard task of fixing it
THE marvellous edifice of modern finance took years to build. The world had a weekend to save it from collapsing. On March 16th America's Federal Reserve, by nature hardly impetuous, rewrote its rule-book by rescuing Bear Stearns, the country's fifth-largest investment bank, and agreeing to lend directly to other brokers. A couple of days later the Fed cut short-term interest rates—again—to 2.25%, marking the fastest loosening of monetary policy in a generation.
It was a Herculean effort, and it staved off the outright catastrophe of a bank failure that had threatened to split Wall Street asunder. Even so, this week's brush with disaster contained two unsettling messages. One is analytical: the world needs new ways of thinking about finance and the risks it entails. The other is a warning: the crisis has opened a new, dangerous chapter. For all its mistakes, modern finance is worth saving—and the job looks as if it is still only half done.
This is probably all my fault. Sorry I bothered, won't bother you folks again. AMF.
I'm buying guns and ammo... My wife doesn't think they're much good, but I don't think her diamonds are either.
So there's a run on the bank, who cares. I owe them more than they hold of mine!
Not much interested in gold either, mining stocks have piqued my interest of late though.
Well, what Really happened, when you drill down into it, is:
A lot of folks had a lot of money; they loaned some of it to people that weren't the least bit qualified, in terms of paying it back, to buy houses, and, then, a lot more folks got busy betting on whether the non-qualified really could pay the money back. A lot of them couldn't; and, a lot of people lost their money. On the other hand, if it had gone the other way a lot of people would have still lost their money. They wuz gamblin!
In the meantime, some value was created. The houses are still there; and, they will, eventually, be occupied by "qualified" owners.
Quite apart from all that, the Scientists are still studying the genome, and creating Nano-Materials, and building better machines. 95.2 of all Americans that want to work will get up tomorrow, and go to their jobs.
The Global Warming Nutcases are slowly being taken apart, and, soon, we will get about the business of preparing for a world with much less oil (and, then, natural gas) than we have at present. Life goes on; And, so do we, Bubba; So do We.
''In the meantime, some value was created.''
key, key point -- we took about ten quick steps forward, now we're taking one step back. maybe two, even three. Butnot all ten, nosiree.
From the Economist's article:
That game is now up. You can think of lots of ways to describe the pain—debt is unwinding, investors are writing down assets, liquidity is short. But the simplest is that counterparties no longer trust each other. Walter Bagehot, an authority on bank runs, once wrote: “Every banker knows that if he has to prove that he is worthy of credit, however good may be his arguments, in fact his credit is gone.” In our own entangled era, his axiom stretches to the whole market
It's a damn good article and while Hauteville tried humor about things the article points out that the pain has just begun.
the article from the Economists makes Roger look like a dope.
Here's what I spotted.
Even if that solves Wall Street's immediate worries over liquidity, it still leaves the danger that recession will lead to such big losses that banks are forced into insolvency. This depends on everything from mortgages to credit-card debt. These, in turn, depend on the American economy's likely path, the depth to which house prices decline and the scale of mortgage foreclosures— and none of these things is looking good. Goldman Sachs's latest calculations, which suppose that American house prices will eventually fall by 25% from their peak, suggest that total losses will reach just over $1.1 trillion. At around 8% of GDP that is not to be sniffed at . But it includes losses held by foreigners, and “non-leveraged institutions” such as insurers. Goldman expects eventual post-tax losses for American financial firms to be around $300 billion, just over 2% of GDP, or about 20% of their equity capital.
"...the article from the Economists makes Roger look like a dope.
Here's what I spotted."
It doesn't make Roger look as much like a dope as you, Habu, with your 'anonymous' postings throughout this thread. Come on - be a man and use your own name. What a transparent idiot you are.
What is a viper?
"You serpents, generation of vipers, how will you flee from the judgment of hell?" --Jesus of Nazareth
Spratt, I know Habu and he posts under his name. He's also man enough to put your lights out in a heartbeat. You'd never want to say "be a man" to his face. He'd rip your head off and shit down your neck.
Many dissociative disorders may be traced to problems during potty training.
Just how is it y'all know them?
I find that dubious. People trolling the Internet are not known for their, shall we say, physicality
I just got a call. Says you're having issues with anon and calling my manhood out on it.
Come on down to Jacksonville and I'm sure I can straighten you out. In fact I know I can straighten you out. Now I'm going back to bed. Just watch your fucking mouth asshole or I'll will fix it so you won't be comfortable for a long time.....
But the question wasn't a threat... just a challenge... and certainly not worthy of a beheading... were you anon or not? Fess up, a simple yes or no... we'd all respect you so much more in the morning.
Goldman reported a Helluva quarter. They were "selling" the Do, and "Betting" the Don't.
I've NOT been a big fan of the Fed; but, I've got to give the devil his due. They "got it right" the last couple of weeks. I think this story's about over.
If Bush (Cheney) and the Sauds can figure out how to pull off oil price "stability," even at these levels, we might get out of this without a recession - at least not a serious one.
I love the mindset of these investment banks, when we make money [profit]. We ain't sharin it with noooobudie,but if we lose money we all can go runnin to our Big Daddie [the Fed] who can change all them rules so the loss'es can be spread/socialized amoung the dumb, stupid mass'es.That be me!!and the rest of us workin on the big government plantation. My ass is real sore, maybe they can start sticking it up my nose or in my ear.
I've been reading this thread all day and it seems like a good number of you don't want gold. Historically that is simply dumb.
Rufus glad you were able to save your keyboard,gota go now massa Bernackee keep tellin me to keep my nose to the grindstone. : )
Here's to a complex subject! Bottoms up!
Here is a tip for the more analytical minded readers. Go to the Crestmont Research website (http://www.crestmontresearch.com/). There is plenty of food for thought.
The big risk today is systemic risk tied to derivatives and in particular counterparty risk. Thus, the Fed's intervention with Bear Stearns.
The best recommendation is to buy companies you understand (i) at a discount to your determination of intrinsic value, (ii) where you are highly confident that earnings will be higher several years later and (iii) where you would be willing to buy more if the price went down.
Buy when the thought of buying makes you feel like throwing up and sell when everyone else is euphoric.
Side dishes of precious metals, gold and real estate (including timberland) can help as hedges against inflation.
Of course, caveat emptor.
If gold or diamonds or any other commodity cannot be eaten, or used to make something edible what good are they when there is a true SHTF event?
You cannot eat, drive, shoot (well maybe, but them's wasteful expensive bullets) gold or diamonds.
Want a hedge against the world falling apart? Plant and keep up a garden. Learn and become good at a basic trade like welding or good old blacksmithing.
If the economy takes a true dump, trading gold and/or diamonds for useless dollars to buy that which is not available at (or couldn't get to) the store will be a useless waste of time.
Less than SHTF? Invest in something that creates value. Commodities at best hold value, they do not create it. People create value and they often work in companies in which you may invest.
Invest in yourself, learn something which is well outside your normal workaday world, which could provide your daily bread if the boss gives you the old heave ho because your business segment is collapsing.
Have not followed individual mining stocks real close but it used to be that when gold goes up, the gold stocks go up more. Gold has to go to $2000 to double your investment now. If gold doubles like that then companies like Barrack could go up 5x or 10x. Some "penny" mining stocks can go up 50x and then down to nothing. Used to be that the Toronto exchange was a good way to get good commodities exposure without being too high risk, but there is a dollar exposure there too. That is where the derivatives come in. They can negate the dollar exposure. But I do not like derivatives as I do not understand them very well and I do not trade in currency either. Just keep some money in both currencys and spend it in country. Otherwise there are trading fees of about 3% in and out. I do not actively "hedge". Do not need to. The commodities exchange works well for companys who deal in those commodities for their manufacturing or production livelihoods. Speculating there is not for me.
Habu is sounding a bit like the Dems and George Soros. Doom and gloom and run on the banks. Soros is famous for doing that to the British pound too, isn't he? When Soros says buy gold and dump the dollar, I wonder if he is really vacuuming off the bottom and buying the better USA banks.
Think the Fed has more than one tool and Bernanke knows how to use them except Congress stepping in and negating signed real estate contracts is not good. Wish they had let the contracts stand. Think that transferring that kind of debt to the tax payer is unprecedented. Real estate contracts are legal documents and the government should have no right to negate or override them. That new uncertainty could be one factor for the dollar going lower, but the real reasons are debt and low interest rates.
And now we have the new UN-commodity, carbon. The less you have of it the richer you are! Thanks to really smart people like Al Gore and Richard Branson and Tony Blair, real commodities like the oil sands and good companys like Suncor are now considered a big problem. Agree with Opie that alternative energy and carbon traders who do math will make up the next bubble. The legislatures have already paved that path. Looks like the pump is primed.
People need constant reliable energy. Wind and solar are not reliable so back up systems are also needed. That fact alone greatly compounds the already high cost of providing wind and solar power. Alcohol fuels may be a good thing but don't think they will replace oil as an important commodity or break OPEC. Think OPEC will only fall the way cartels have always fallen. Broken from the inside. Maybe Iraq will do that. Big maybe.
Nice analysis Patina... pretty much agree with all you say. There is risk in everything alas... even crawling out of bed in the morning. Yet, the world keeps turning.
I believe you've grossly misinterpreted my writings and turned them toward a projection of I know not what.
Let’s examine some of the points I have made:
• Gold is a hedge .Some gold in a portfolio has a place. It has never been worth nothing such as Enron stock etc. I emphasized diversification.
• Preparedness for an assault on our society. It can come in many forms. Physical attack from AQ either through a dirty bomb, biological ,or chemical. Have a plan to react quickly. Panic spreads rapidly when bad things happen. A dirty bomb on Wall Street while not actually ruining records and trading systems (there are back ups in other places, up and running) the average person would be in a panic over their investments.
• Back to gold/silver /diamonds. No, you can’t eat them, but on the road you might encounter someone with an excess of foodstuffs, gasoline, etc or other essential that could be bartered. Silver in the form of what is known as trash silver, pre 1964 is the medium most mentioned. If really bad times come and those make up a small portion of your portfolio you’ll still come out a winner/survivor
• I pointed our an article from the Economist. I don’t know if you read it but I didn’t write it and it has plenty to say about the road we are currently on, and sites the fact that it may ,and probably will get more bumpy. I didn’t invent the gloom.
• The recent Bear Sterns collapse took WS by surprise to a great degree. Bear Stearns had survived through the Great Depression, no small feat, and then in two days it was gone, two days..poof.
• The FED has now had to become the lender and guarantor of last resort for our entire capitalist system. The FED has only 50 billion dollars remaining in there coffers after lending out $200 billion this month and rewriting their rule book to underwrite all of Wall Street…it was necessary to prevent a collapse of Wall Street, pension funds, and the entire system with global effects as well. I did nothing but aid MF readers in staying current on this. If you think that is doom and gloom ,it is a misrepresentation, it's fact.
• It is apparent to me in reading some of the comments that many MF contributors have no real knowledge of markets or money. But I assure you many of the biggest banks in the world were very concerned due to the composition of what is known today as “entanglement” brought about by derivatives. As one of the references in the Economist article said “Modern finance has promised miracles, seduced the brilliant and the greedy—and wrought destruction.” Once again not my doom and gloom. And also not simple from the pages of the Economist. Most financial publications and big brains are still very concerned.
• Now if you believe that Al Queida will never succeed in attacking us again, that a systemic failure of the proportions of the Great Depression can never happen again then you’re in clover, tall lush clover. But if you are wrong and unprepared then it might be poison Ivey you’re in ,not clover.
Good luck on you choice of which road to travel, being prepared or just changing the channel when the news you don’t want to hear come on the hi def.
Changing the channel? How about we change your diapers, boy?
Agree the situation is unprecedented Habu, but the press plays a roll too. Lots of debt coming due. Still mortages are backed up by houses and now by the US government too. And if inflation is going to be a problem than houses will cost more, not less, right?
Agreed Patina, however I was speaking specifically to points I brought up , be they references to articles or my own thoughts as being misinterpreted. Simple clarification was in order.
Back in 2002 one fantastic ounce of gold sold for 7.6 million dollars.
Appreciate the "invisible hand" helping me prove my point.
But this next piece is similar to the "turn in your guns" (if they were ever prohibited ie Australia).
The CNN article pointed out "With payment or hoarding of gold prohibited, thousands of citizens turned in their gold to the banks."
My question is why? I realize we are a nation of laws but outlawing gold was an FDR edict, not a law. And even if it were a law, prudence would dictate that not all lemmings need follow the one in front over the cliff.
I have a 1913 $10 gold piece which a distant cousin gave to me when I was a child. He did not turn it in back in 1933 (or whenever). He was rather proud of having thumbed his nose at FDR. From what I can tell, it is worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $700 - $1000. I assume that if he had turned it in, he would have been given $10 in cash. By what I can see, the DJIA in 1933 was for the most part, between 50 and 100. Today it is over 12,000 (over 120 times greater than 100 and 240 times more than 50). That $10 invested in the Dow stocks would thus be worth a minimum of $1200, correct? Of course for purposes of this discussion, one must consider that the coin would have a value greater than that of the gold it contains. And on the other side of the coin, there would be costs associated with exchanging shares when the Dow's component companies changed and other small account factors...
The compounding magic of dividend reinvestment would amp your $1200 up an incredible amount -- forexample, divide 72 by the rate of return and you get the number of years it takes to double yo money.
Interesting Leag. That coin has got it all. A nice intersection of history, art, mystery and gold.
What's the matter Mr. Habu he man? You too afraid to change your diapers?
Ok, I changed my diapers. Now would you care to add something substantive to the thread?
Watch out asshole. I don't need diapers because I am going to rip your head off and shit down your neck. You're my diaper.
See how well I can do Habu....the neat thing about this site is that there are no controls.
Blessed be the LORD my strength which teacheth my hands to war, and my fingers to fight.
29.1 is not me. Someone has hijacked my name. After all, since when would I be quoting scripture...
And thus the basic dishonesty of 'nics'... Stand by your words, otherwise they mean nothing.
I'd give a million dollars not to have all these fake names confusing who is saying what.
Haha... yes, I am old enough to get that joke.
A troll popped up last evening , one Jack Spratt, with a short note for me. I believe Mr Spratt is having a bit of fun at several of our expenses. I have not posted some of the posts with my name attached either.
If it continues it will of course destroy the integrity of the site.
MF, as Dr Mercury has pointed out, needs to up their site game to prevent wholesale name theft and the consequence of presenting a persona in a light they do not agree with, but then are either faced with ignoring or spending useless time attempting to unwind a position they never took in the first place.
Thanks for the info Habu. It is very confusing... and most frustrating, to see one's name appended to something one had nothing to do with.
If ye had a fletch to get then would it be gone?
and if it be gone fletch it to be somewhere else or the moor will
gambol like an antelope.
Trust and entanglements those are two big words that I got out of the article Habu mentioned. No one in the banking system knows the severity of the dung they are carrying, and it has infected every level of government from the Feds to the states to the local level.Everyone is holding some bad shit ,it's all rated AAA so at least we can put it in our gardens.
“These instruments enhance the ability to differentiate risk and allocate it to those investors most able and willing to take it.”
Thus sayeth Alan Greenspan in March 1999.
He was talking about the sophisticated financial instruments that havebeen in the news lately – derivatives. Another view of derivatives was expressed by someone who actually knew something – Warren E. Buffett, the sage of Omaha. He called them “weapons of mass destruction.”
I'll take Warren Buffett for $800.
You'll take Warren Buffett for $800? No, you won't. Take responsibility for using a lot of fake names, Habu. What's the matter, Small Balls, don't have it in you to admit to being too chickenshit to insult people f-2-f?
Copying other commenter's names is a pretty hostile attack on the website. I can't think of anything more discouraging to honest commenters than to find their 'persona' besmirched with folderol, and then having to try to correct it. Y'all please quit it, whoever's doing it -- t'ain't funny, and t'ain't even much of a ruse, being as it's so easy to do. Candy from a baby -- not much of a challenge.
Additional small thought, the hosts here are pretty nice folks; pretty decent regular folks. They've done nothing to deserve this sort of attack on their site. It's a display of ingratitude -- ingratitude being a vice and not a pretty one.
I think many people enamoured with gold are misunderstanding the first rule of real world economics. Something is only worth what someone is willing to give you for it. After the end of the world that many survival types seem to be not so much preparing for but wishing for, gold won't be worth more than ammunition, suger, flour blackets and all the various trade goods that people have on the frontiers.
Think about it, in a "Mad Max" kind of world who would want your gold? People would more likely trade for goods and services until a stable civilization arose, and then gold would be valued at a price much lower than the one speculators paid.
There are lists of the poossessions free trappers and moutain men took with them into the wilds. No gold but dozes of things like scissors, combs mirrorsa and thhings indians traded for. There a better guide for self reliance in the bad times then any gold shill.
yep -- the Black Hills Sioux called it the 'yellow metal that makes white men crazy'. They had it aplenty, and little use for it, until it became a form of money. By then -- whoops -- gone!
i think just play and humorous games -- which got too confusing to cope with --
Consider the phenom with the light from the Mass Man article from Mr. Nyquist; an infection of affection may have taken hold.