We are a commune of inquiring, skeptical, politically centrist, capitalist, anglophile, traditionalist New England Yankee humans, humanoids, and animals with many interests beyond and above politics. Each of us has had a high-school education (or GED), but all had ADD so didn't pay attention very well, especially the dogs. Each one of us does "try my best to be just like I am," and none of us enjoys working for others, including for Maggie, from whom we receive neither a nickel nor a dime. Freedom from nags, cranks, government, do-gooders, control-freaks and idiots is all that we ask for.
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Sunday, December 27. 2020
I contracted Covid back in March. 2 weeks of coughing and headaches, no fever, and a general haziness for about 2 months afterward. I'm fine now, no long-term issues to speak of. I am heading in for some medical checkups since my insurance is ending soon. If you're over 50 and understand the prep process, you know what I'm talking about. At any rate, the doctors had me take a Covid test last week as a precautionary measure. It's a smart move, and of course I came up negative.
Thing is, I was visiting friends last night, and a few other people stopped in. We wound up spending a few hours together. This morning, one sent us a text telling us he'd awakened with a fever. Later he texted that he'd been tested and came up positive.
Most of the people there last night already had Covid, so we're fairly confident we should be in good shape. We'd all been tested and had the antibodies. There are no guarantees, but I'm fairly confident most of us will be fine. There wasn't a ton of interaction, touching and no coughing. But we were indoors, and Mrs. Bulldog has not had Covid yet. So she will go get tested in a few days. Meanwhile, we will quarantine for a few days...
Except I have that procedure on Tuesday morning. So I shot them a note to let them know, and will follow whatever measures they ask me to engage.
This is how things should be handled. Rather than locking down, we can take steps to manage ourselves properly. Lockdowns haven't stopped the spread, they've merely created a false impression that viral outbreaks can be 'stopped' or 'prevented' with policy. Except the policies haven't stopped anything, and often have only led to worse overall situations.
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Imagine that, responsible adults acting responsibly.
Looking at the lockdown regime in CA - the most stringent and extreme in the country - and tracking the rise in cases there can we make the argument that their approach is causing the spike in cases? Science, or correlation, right?
The stated purpose of wearing socks on your head and placing everyone under house arrest was "stopping" the spread of the virus, which of course is ridiculous.
The actual purpose is divide-and-rule politics, as is everything if you dig far enough down.
It pits the harridans ("karens") against the independently minded, those prone to freaking out against the rightly skeptical, and if one [i]should[/] contract the dread Peking Pox, encourages all around to point at the leper, proclaim him "unclean," and to blame him for being insufficiently obedient and pious.
Question: Do you Know the Mrs hasn't had it? ie tested all along the way with you?
It's possible she had it at some point since May, asymptomatically.
But in May when we tested for antibodies, she came up blank. My son and I both had them.
I think people who consider themselves very smart, buy into Medical Science. By doing that, they consider themselves, 'very smart'. It's a feedback loop. I'm only 68 and all hell may break loose tomorrow, but I've never had a physical. Don't have a Doctor. Don't take any meds.
A cold virus is going around? Yeah...been there, done that. 100 times in this life. Granted, I'm not smart, so I'm not limited by that.
"The Race Is Not Always to the Swift, Nor the Battle to the Strong; But It's the Best Damn Way to Bet."
There are a few things people can do (or not do) to live longer and live better and avoid shit that often hits without warning:
1. Don't smoke.
2. Don't eat crap.
3. Don't sit too much.
5. Sleep is underrated.
6. Get checked for high blood pressure. There are no symptoms until it's too late.
7. At the appropriate age, get checked for colon cancer.
8. If you have a crappy lipid panel, do something about it.
9. Dental checkups.
10. For women - pap smears and mammograms.
I wish I had a nickel for every patient who came in with what could have been a preventable problem and told me that had never been sick a day in their life and never seen a doctor.
The fact that someone doesn't take any meds doesn't mean they don't need to be taking any meds, especially if they don't have a doctor and have never had a physical.
My mother is 85 years old and an alcoholic. She suffers from macular degeneration and is going deaf, and has depression. Her mother lived to 92 and was active until the very end.
About 20 years ago we were told my mother had 6 months to live due to her drinking.
The question you can ask is whether medical science is 'bad' because she's alive after 20 years and didn't die in 6 months OR if she could have lived to 92 without all her other issues and been active if she'd given up drinking, based on medical advice.
I'd say the latter is more likely. Genetics play a huge role in life. If you can manage your affairs and health in a positive fashion, you may optimize outcomes.
A follow up question may be "is it worth it to spend so much time putting effort into getting 10 extra years if I'm not really enjoying myself along the way?" Well...that's a personal choice.
Most of Gang Green's points are simple things I do that don't interfere with my enjoyment of life. I do tend to sit a little too much, and probably don't get enough sleep, so I'll try to adjust those. But I get plenty of exercise and eat well, manage my weight and try to not overdo the alcohol.
My mom is 85 and my father is 85. One is in terrible shape, the other is on a natural downward slope but working to improve.
I can only hope to be in better shape than both when I'm 85, and I don't think it will take much to get there.
BTW, I had Covid. It was a bad flu for me, not a cold. I've had flu, cold and this was pretty bad by comparison to those. I know others who had it far worse than I did. I won't scoff at this as just a cold. But I'm not really taking it as seriously as politicians want me to, mainly because my first-hand knowledge is better than anything they've got.
I do not disagree with a thing you said but my 29 YO niece died of alcoholism. Not from a massive drinking binge but simple excessive drinking of whisky over a year or two. Hard to believe. She was healthy and quite strong but got involved with an alcoholic and drank every night with him. I saw her 3 days before and she appeared to be sober (as in not had a drink for 12 hours or so" but looked like shit. Then just died in her sleep a few days later. Alcohol takes it's toll.
Oh hell yeah it does. My parents are the same age, divorced.
Comparatively speaking, they look and behave completely differently.
I'd like to believe if she'd cared for herself my mother could live past 100. She may still, who knows? But it seems unlikely. Then again, it also seems unlikely that she's made it this far...so genes really count for quite a bit.
In every controversy, there is a fatal flaw or key aspect that is never mentioned or discussed for fear of upsetting the agenda. For COVID-19, that aspect is risk management.
We have an entire professional discipline in the modern commercial world that requires education, training, certification in Risk Management for professional practitioners. Insurance companies stake their business models on Risk Management. Where is it?
In my 40 years in the oil patch, making routine risk assessments was an exercise carried through every endeavor, from planning, to budgeting, to operations, to work on the site. In planning, risks were assessed to understand and reduce uncertainty. In operations, to provide safety.
On an offshore platform, you have to have a formal Permit to Work for any kind of activity - you go through a process to get one, like a permission slip - signed off by the guy in charge of the facility. What's the most important component? You have to have a comprehensive risk assessment for every element of the work to be performed.
And yet with COVID-19, the characterization of risk is virtually unstated, and then almost incidentally or anecdotally, and then, only in the most general of terms. Helping individuals to understand their personal risk, in the environment they are living in, should be the top priority. Instead: Lock-downs by elected morons, apparently as advised by professional medical cretins. It is appalling.
OK, so I've done a little scrape 'round the InterWeb and here is what I can find for tools. Test drive to see if they help you:
Your personal medical risk: https://www.covidodds.com/
I came out with a 13.45% chance of hospitalization and a 3.47% chance of death.
Your risk of attending an event, by USA county: https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/
Your risk of attending an event, by USA county, #2: https://covidcalculator.xyz/
Your 'COVID Age' as modified by co-morbidities (from the UK): https://alama.shinyapps.io/Covid_Age/
... with guidance on this utility: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-guidance-on-individual-risk-assessment-for-the-workplace/
Co-morbidities as defined by the CDC, with confidence/certainty levels and footnotes:
[i]Of note: Cancer is apparently not considered a co-morbidity if one is in remission.[\i]
> This is how things should be handled. Rather than locking
> down, we can take steps to manage ourselves properly.
I'm 100 percent in agreement that what SHOULD have happened was (1) a 2 week "lockdown" to bend the curve, then state and city level orders that when you are notified that you were exposed you were in quarantine for 15 days.
But like lots of things, there's this tiny percentage of utter twits who won't play along.
Here is something that the media is not reporting:
This is getting real.
I don't know that the media isn't reporting what you posted...I see/hear it so much I've turned off the TV/Radio.
I haven't ever said the pandemic wasn't real. Or that it was a joke. I've always felt some reasonable steps should be recommended and followed. But we've allowed the chickens to fly the coop and gone way, way overboard.
My point is that there isn't a whole lot you can do, policy-wise, to stop this. The event I encountered this weekend was avoidable in only one way - complete and utter lack of human contact of all types.
Sorry, but that is simply not a policy that is going to stick. Especially since I've had it already, and while I'm going along with the 'guidelines', I'm not buying into the bullshit. And there is a lot of bullshit out there, mostly on the "OMG this is so awful" side.
It's bad. Worse than we've seen in many years. But not so awful as to have required the excessive public interventions we've seen and the apocalyptic scenarios which we're told are all too common (and really aren't).
Still, my story is one of how to do right by others voluntarily and as a matter of choice, despite recognizing the utter idiocy of the general policies in place ('wear your mask until you reach your magic table where no viruses can touch you' is one of my favorites, though 'by shutting down businesses we're saving lives' is by far the best one).
Had I not already had Covid, I doubt I'd be doing anything different than I did this weekend. I broke no rules, recommendations or guidelines. There was no gathering of large groups, just a small meeting of friends who had mostly had it already. It was an unlucky event that one of these friends came down ill the next day and tested positive. After all, he'd spent 2 weeks being careful prior to Christmas just so he could see his parents. Somewhere along that 'being careful' timeline he'd chanced into the virus.
It happens and there isn't much you or anyone can do about it and there's nothing any policy can do to stop it.
Very nice, but 'keeping it real"??
Have a look at raw data FROM California's "Open Data Portal" here:
I downloaded and worked the data (as anyone with Excel can)
as percentages of All Hospital Beds in each City/County
(rounded % numbers)
City/County: ALL Beds || Percent Covid Patients
Los Angeles: 20,200 beds || 35% Covid
San Diego: 6,714 beds || 22% Covid
Orange: 5,929 || 35% Covid
Riverside: 3,468 || 42% Covid
Ventura: 1,214 || 29% Covid
Situation in CA not as described by that raconteur.
And yet every hospital in LA county is full and actually overflowing. They have freezer 18 wheelers parked outside and those are over flowing. This is fact not a simple statistic. When in your lifetime have you ever seen this to be true? I'm 77 YO and I never remember any big city/big county with over flowing ER and ICU full to overflowing out into the corridors and Freezer trailers parked outside for the dead bodies.
You can quote all the statistics in the world but the facts are the facts. Maybe all these dead and dying people were killed by Martians? That makes as much sense as denying covid when all the hospitals are full of covid patients.
The incubation period for Covid is reported to be 3-5 days. Since your friend spiked a fever the morning after mingling with you, he or she probably picked up the virus somewhere else.
True enough, but the other concern seemed to be whether any of them might have been exposed. Many had already had it and were likely immune, but not all.
Asymptomatic transmission is reported (by the JAMA) to be almost nil. If the friend didn't display any symptoms, then he or she was unlikely to be the spreader.
You're right, I passed over the fact that the person they were exposed to developed symptoms only the next day. I agree, the evidence for asymptomatic transmission, while not exactly proved to be zero, is at the very least remarkably slender.
That's NOT what the JAMA article reported. Did you actually read the article in JAMA or are you repeating an internet misinterpretation of the article?
In brief, here's what the authors reported:
The journal article in question found people with symptoms were more contagious than those without, but asymptomatic people did transmit the virus.
• The paper looks only at household transmission, not community spread. An asymptomatic individual who went out in the community could still infect a sizable number of people.
• The paper itself warns that the number of studies looking at asymptomatic transmission is small, making it hard to draw sweeping conclusions.
Go check out some studies that have actually been done:
JAMA Network Open, "Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis," Dec. 14, 2020
MedRxiv, "Defining the role of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 transmission – a living systematic review," Sept. 1, 2020
International Journal of Infectious Diseases, "Delivery of infection from asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19 in a familial cluster," May 2020
PLOS Medicine, "Occurrence and transmission potential of asymptomatic and presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections: A living systematic review and meta-analysis," Sept. 22, 2020
Nature, "What the data say about asymptomatic COVID infections," Nov. 18, 2020
While the Twitter source of the false information provided no source, this is the article that it likely refers to:
Perhaps the most important lesson Trump taught the public was that much of our news is FAKE NEWS. Stupid and lazy perpetrate fake news. To avoid, go to the original source documents and study them.
Meanwhile, the WHO stealth edits naturally acquired herd immunity off their website in favor of ... vaccines.
Hard to believe, I know.
Also from the link:
Coronavirus lived on surfaces until it didn’t. Masks didn’t work until they did, then they did not. There is asymptomatic transmission, except there isn’t. Lockdowns work to control the virus except they do not. All these people are sick without symptoms until, whoops, PCR tests are wildly inaccurate because they were never intended to be diagnostic tools. Everyone is in danger of the virus except they aren’t. It spreads in schools except it doesn’t.
On it goes. Daily. It’s no wonder that so many people have stopped believing anything that “public health authorities” say.
I just don't know many people who have had it. One close co-worker, ten or so other employees. My mom knows two people who have had it. My negihbor had it. That's it.
I haven't paid attention to local news much lately, so I don't know the situation on the vaccine roll out, but I don't know anyone who is wanting to get it. I assumed it was nursing homes and medical staff only for a while.
Personally, I think the military, national guard, and police should have been the first people to get the vaccine, before the high-risk. There's no point in saving lives if you can't keep the peace.
Absent from all of this discussion is the risk to people in assisted living and nursing homes and their providers, health care providers, and other front-line workers like police and EMT's.
Yeah, great. Y'all don't have direct contact with people who go into those places or they have slipped your mind. Increasing their risk has not factored into anyone's calculations above. Risk management is a great strategy, but it doesn't sound like this is what is being discussed here.
Maybe the government and large institutions are overestimating the risk, or (gulp) overvaluing those lives, and deserves criticism for it. But how would you guys know, as you haven't worked from that important piece? Even Aggie's pretty good stuff goes short on that. "Oh yeah. (waves hands) Protect those vulnerable people, sure. That's what I was saying all along." Except reducing the general spread is part of protecting the police, the LNA's, the ER workers.
This is part of what I am driving at. In the few choice assessments above we have personal medical risk and notional lifestyle group events, but that's it. Why ??
It seems obvious that professional exposure should be one of the preeminent factors. But nowhere could I find some kind of tool for assessing it. What would be the factors?
The W.H.O. had some Risk Assessment materials out there, as does the C.D.C. and other organizations dedicated to health. There are templates (DuckDuckGo "COVID Risk Assessment") that one can review, but the problem with this is that they're all constructed by committee, paralysis-by-analysis and a special mention call-out to all your identity politicians. W.H.O.'s is 98 pages long.
It's the practical management of the crisis that's missing in action, with the professionals jumping through their ass to make it up on the spot. Most of Texas' districts now are showing Dark Red, but it's still not quite as bad as last spring.
“It seems obvious that professional exposure should be one of the preeminent factors. But nowhere could I find some kind of tool for assessing it.”
If they could measure it, they would absolutely include it in these risk calculations. Why would they not include it? That scenario is impossible to imagine.
Given these facts, it’s reasonable to deduce that it’s not measurable, and therefore unknowable and essentially zero. Which is not that crazy an idea, since health care professionals are overwhelmingly under 65, and extremely healthy, with very active immune systems due to the nature of the work, adequate vitamin D levels, nonsmokers, etc.
I believe I've discussed this in the past, if not directly, then indirectly.
But my POV is that if we have to take extreme measures to protect the 'front line workers' from this, then why have we not done the same when other viral outbreaks have presented themselves, like the flu, in years past?
More deadly/less deadly and more viral/less viral doesn't factor into this discussion. A bad flu season is a bad flu season and we just didn't do these things. Are we going to do this all the time now? Did Howard Hughes' mentality infect everyone - are we all germophobes?
I took the steps I have taken because I am concerned about potential spread, but more concerned about the social stigma that comes along with this now. I don't want to be a vector, and I don't want to be the person everyone points to as the vector so they can shame him/her. But I won't criticize anyone who takes it less seriously than I do. Technically, I could be all over the guy who called me - because I don't know what he did that allowed this to present itself in his system. I know he had quarantined prior to Christmas so he could see his family...but obviously he did something or went somewhere during his quarantine. Or his quarantine just wasn't 'good enough'. Or his family brought it with them.
Who knows? It's a virus. It's going to spread. I don't think he spread it deliberately or I doubt he'd have called. Clearly he was concerned enough to let people know, and that's the right thing to do.
Now my procedures have been put off until Jan 27. I hit my deductible this year, so now I'll be paying for this work...a small price to pay, overall. But it's annoying. As such, at least for my part of the discussion, I have touched on the topic and done my part.
Studied by Janowitz et al with nazi soldiers after capture in 1945 . they knew they were losing war.
they fought viciously out of regard (and shame) for each other in the squad (not for Fatherland)
This article is biased and shows no interviews with soldiers who have fought in the field. It says more about the writer's imagination than the title claims.
Anybody know anything about this? Covid doesn't look so deadly,
The article is spot on. I've done my own spreadsheets from the CDC data since April and this is exactly true. This is why the vaccinations should go to the elderly. We could cut deaths by 60% if we vaccinated those over 75 (i.e. 60% of deaths are those over 75). And "long term" side affects from the new mRNA vaccines have a different meaning for an 80 yr old than a 40 year old.
Bulldog - did your friend have symptoms after diagnosis? I STILL don't know anybody who has had it. Neighbors went to Church (masked and social distancing) just before Thanksgiving, then to Lunch, got a call that someone in the group had had a positive test. The church shut down, cancelled Thanksgiving services, everybody quarantined for 14 days. Testee never got sick, got cleared on a second test. NO ONE else at the lunch or church got sick, so no one got tested. False Positives are at what? 30 to 40%?
Just answered the question.
"A British journalist has been targeted by an angry online mob after pointing out that only a relatively small amount of healthy people have died from COVID, and suggesting that the complete destruction of our way of life is not an adequate response."