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Tuesday, April 14. 2020

Trusting China

Geraghty's Powerful Americans Were Catastrophically Wrong about China:



 You have to give Vox a few molecules of credit for recognizing that while they rage against disinformation, some of their earliest pieces about COVID-19 included information that just wasn’t accurate — in part because it was coming from well-credentialed experts who flat-out misjudged the danger from the virus.


Nobody had the data, so nobody was alarmed. Even in February, 6 or 7 weeks ago, Dr. Fauci was reassuringly saying "just a flu, go to restaurants, etc."  Our experts were consistently wrong in their guesses, jumping from sanguine to reckless panic, not just because of China but because they were all flying blind - VFR into IMC.
Posted by The Barrister in Hot News & Misc. Short Subjects at 15:50 | Comments (8) | Trackbacks (0)

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re Geraghty's Powerful Americans Were Catastrophically Wrong about China:

Agreed.

I thought at the time that Nixon's overture to China was a strategic blunder, though it was likely that if not Nixon, it would have been someone else.

As trade began between China and the West, the intelligentsia were unanimous in their opinion that prosperity would lead to democracy in China, though they had no more evidence for that than wishful thinking.

China plays by China's rules. It's somewhat like being in a card game with a cheat.
#1 feeblemind on 2020-04-14 16:09 (Reply)
I thought at the time that Nixon's overture to China was a strategic blunder, though it was likely that if not Nixon, it would have been someone else.
The "opening" to China has been a policy that all subsequent Administrations, Democrat or Republican, have adhered to. More prosperous, more democratic, didn't quite work out, though Chinese are somewhat freer than they were 50 years ago.

I don't remember his name, but I recall reading some foreign policy wonk/expert being quoted to the effect that every day he prayed for the good health of Mao Tse-Tung and the continuation of the PRI in power in Mexico. His reason was along the line that both Mao and the PRI crippled the economic power of their respective countries
#1.1 Gringo on 2020-04-14 16:59 (Reply)
It's not just China. How's that Arab Spring working out?
#2 Andrew Stanton on 2020-04-14 16:35 (Reply)
We have not had a pandemic in a century. We are not only unused to them, we are unused to the complete unpredictability that accompanies them. We expect someone, somewhere to have the right answers, and thus adopt sureties that are not available.

Nicholas Nassim Taleb, engaging in magic-wand retrospective (and he was fully cognizant of that and not claiming he would have done better at the time) states that had we closed the borders on January 26 - five weeks before that actually happened and well before anyone other than a few Chinese doctors had a clue what was really up - we could now just be getting by with some handwashing, masks, and decrease in circulation. I don't know if that's true, but it is at least plausible.

It is also useless. Neither Trump nor any governor could even thought such at thing on that date, had the confidence to institute it. When your time machine starts to function again, you can get the president to try that for us and see how it works.
#3 Assistant Village Idiot on 2020-04-14 17:48 (Reply)
I know you are just the Assistant Village Idiot, but I think you are on to something!
#3.1 Stargazer on 2020-04-14 18:45 (Reply)
What? "Flat-out misjudged the danger from the virus?"
What's wrong with"conspired to understate their virus' danger in league with Democrats beholden to Chinese "family-favors" for cashiered Naval officers.
#4 Richard Torre on 2020-04-15 01:36 (Reply)
If you laid out Vox's belief's and prejudices you would be unable to quote him or read him ever again in your life.
#5 OneGuy on 2020-04-15 10:45 (Reply)
Can't trust China, can't trust WHO, so...lets NOT, ever again.
#6 Sam L. on 2020-04-15 11:45 (Reply)

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