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Tuesday, March 7. 2017
Via Mark Perry.
I suspect part of the reason for the Hispanic decline has to do with new immigrants.
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That would seem to make sense. What puzzles me is the abrupt dip in Native American scores around 2014. The trend is downward since around 2005, but the sudden dip is curious.
Don't show this at Middlebury College, it could get you tarred and feathered, or worse.
Don't show this at Middlebury College, it could get you tarred and feathered, or worse.
Which reminds me of an article I read.
Let's be more specific about the SAT racial gap among high-scoring applicants. In 2005, 153,132 African Americans took the SAT test. ...I would not be surprised if some would call this article racist. My reply is: consider the source of this article, which is The Widening Racial Scoring Gap on the SAT College Admissions Test. The article was published in The Journal of Blacks in Higher Education.
On the math SAT, only 0.7 percent of all black test takers scored at least 700 compared to 6.3 percent of all white test takers. Thus, whites were nine times as likely as blacks to score 700 or above on the math SAT. Overall, there were 45 times as many whites as blacks who scored 700 or above on the math SAT.
If we raise the top-scoring threshold to students scoring 750 or above on both the math and verbal SAT — a level equal to the mean score of students entering the nation's most selective colleges such as Harvard, Princeton, and CalTech — we find that in the entire country 244 blacks scored 750 or above on the math SAT and 363 black students scored 750 or above on the verbal portion of the test. Nationwide, 33,841 students scored at least 750 on the math test and 30,479 scored at least 750 on the verbal SAT. Therefore, black students made up 0.7 percent of the test takers who scored 750 or above on the math test and 1.2 percent of all test takers who scored 750 or above on the verbal section.
Once again, if we eliminate Asians and other minorities from the calculations and compare only blacks and whites, we find that 0.2 percent of all black test takers scored 750 or above on the verbal SAT compared to 2.2 percent of all white test takers. Thus, whites were 11 times as likely as blacks to score 750 or above on the verbal portion of the test. Overall, there were 49 times as many whites as blacks who scored at or above the 750 level.
On the math SAT, only 0.16 percent of all black test takers scored 750 or above compared to 1.8 percent of white test takers. Thus, whites were more than 11 times as likely as blacks to score 750 or above on the math SAT. Overall, there were more than 61 times as many whites as blacks who scored 750 or above on the math section of the SAT.
In a race-neutral competition for the approximately 50,000 places for first-year students at the nation's 25 top-ranked universities, high-scoring blacks would be buried by a huge mountain of high-scoring non-black students. Today, under prevailing affirmative action admissions policies, there are about 3,000 black first-year students matriculating at these 25 high-ranking universities, about 6 percent of all first-year students at these institutions. But if these schools operated under a strict race-neutral admissions policy where SAT scores were the most important qualifying yardstick, these universities could fill their freshman classes almost exclusively with students who score at the very top of the SAT scoring scale. As shown previously, black students make up at best between 1 and 2 percent of these high-scoring groups.
Setting aside the problem of Goodhart's Law, here is one way to narrow the SAT gap:
Offer any black student a full four year scholarship to his or her Ivy of choice, conditional on two things:
1) SAT scores of 1500 or higher (on the "new" 1600 point scale).
2) An in person interview (no Rachael Dolezals need apply).
I would bet that within four years you would be amazed at the number of high scoring blacks.
I see the point you're making, but seriously: can you imagine that a black student with a 1500 SAT score wouldn't get a free ride at any ivy right now? Even a white student would be a shoo-in for admission and would have a good shot at scholarship money. A 1500 SAT score puts a kid way out on the tail of the IQ bell curve. It's not just a question of effort or quality of instruction.
Even a white student would be a shoo-in for admission and would have a good shot at scholarship money [with] A 1500 SAT score....
Not so. Princeton Admission Statistics for Applicants to the Class of 2020
Applicant Overview:This uses the writing test, so there are 3 scores involved. If you norm it for just the Math and the Verbal:
Total Applicants: 29,303
Total Admits: 1,911
Total Enrolled: 1,312
Admit Rate: 6.5 percent
Percentage of Applicants by SAT Range:
SAT Scores Percent Accepted
1533-1600 12.8% Accepted
1400-1526: 7.6% Accepted.
That's the way it is today. I remember reading some time ago about a Chinese-American complaining that he wasn't admitted to an Ivy league school even though he had 1440 or so SATs. Sorry guy, that is chump change in the Ivy League.
These numbers tell me it is a crapshoot to get into the Ivy League.But it was a crapshoot even 50 years ago, although less so. The sister of a classmate of mine was a Merit Finalist [which I estimate would give you 1500 SAT minimum], straight As w many AP courses, Debate Club, Drama Club, Ski Club, part time job as cashier at a movie theatre. She was also an accomplished seamstress. She got turned down at a number of the Seven Sisters, though did get accepted at Duke. She went to Kansas, and became an MD.
Texan99, I think you're right that, as things stand now, any black kid who scores 1500 already has an effectual free ride, but I would like to see the offer publicized and made into a campaign. It would end the poisonous reign of affirmative action. (Won't happen, of course.)
Gringo is entirely right that admission to the Ivies is a crapshoot. 1500 is only what you have to pay to get past the bouncer; it doesn't even amount to the cover charge to get into the club.
The sad thing is this is not a difficult problem to fix for blacks, Indians and Hispanics. This is the result of the mutual failure of the schools and the parents. What makes it worse is these students will become parents and fail their children just as they were themselves failed by their own parents.
Not difficult to fix?
It has nothing to do with the schools. NAM kids in excellent school districts also score well below whites and Asians.
From my previous link to the Journal of Blacks in Higher Education article:
Whites from families with incomes of less than $10,000 had a mean SAT score of 993. This is 129 points higher than the national mean for all blacks.I repeat: this information is from an article in the Journal of Blacks in Higher Education. Why this is, I leave for others to parse. Having been a teacher in schools with a lot of blacks, I suspect that the cultural component is not insubstantial. In any event, here are the numbers.
• Whites from families with incomes below $10,000 had a mean SAT test score that was 61 points higher than blacks whose families had incomes of between $80,000 and $100,000.
• Blacks from families with incomes of more than $100,000 had a mean SAT score that was 85 points below the mean score for whites from all income levels, 139 points below the mean score of whites from families at the same income level, and 10 points below the average score of white students from families whose income was less than $10,000.
Curious about the Asian kids. With that kind of trajectory, I have to think that many of those being measured we relatively new to the country.
The math sat grades are interesting. I'm an engineer and when I started college they required a math sat grade of 650 to go to engineering school. Later they discovered that this requirement had an adverse impact on women and minorities so they dropped the requirement. It didn't make a big difference on female and minority enrollment because you still had to pass the freshman calculus course. So many engineering courses use calculus, if you can't do calculus, you can't pass the engineering courses.
Well, yes, the decline might be due to immigrants or it might be due to the fact that Hispanic students are more likely to go to schools with more recent immigrants.
The drop of Sweden to the bottom of educational achievement could also be attributed to recent immigrants. But it might also be because a 14 yr old historically Swedish girl can be raped in a school bathroom by two non-historical Swedish boys and upon conviction, the boys stay in school while the girl is to fearful to return.