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Thursday, January 21. 2016Why the iPhone will never be made in America.
Posted by The Barrister
in Hot News & Misc. Short Subjects
at
13:36
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yup. US (and European) workers are too expensive, and labour laws prevent (luckily... I'd not want to live in the hellhole that's a foxcon complex) people from being exploited the way China's millions upon millions of virtual slave labourers are.
What the article doesn't mention is that a lot of those "workers" are actually prisoners. When Foxcon needs another few thousand people to man a production line they just call the local prison and get a few thousand inmates shipped over. If the prisons are in danger of running dry they just make sure enough extra people are arrested to fill the demand. That's a side of the Chinese labour force you don't often hear about, and a big reason why they can have people working 12-16 hour shifts for virtually no pay and still get no worker complaints. Anyone dares complain has his rations cut, is beaten, and locked in solitary confinement in a tiny box with no toilet for a while until he's learned his lesson. 1) China's labor costs are low in part because of their currency devaluation. So they are already on an unfair playing field.
2) If we lower the corporate tax rate, as some Republican candidates have suggested, that brings a lot of jobs back to the U.S. 3) Perhaps the iPhone won't be made here, but we can certainly bring back a lot of manufacturing b/c there are certain quality problems in China (as we all know with chintzy Chinese crap and dangerous products such as deadly dog food & treats and drywall from a few years back.). And many are tired of cheap crap that breaks. I think you can bring back some manufacturing here to the U.S. I read somewhere that Chinese people themselves would rather buy U.S.-made goods, as they are perceived as quality goods. Make the U.S. more competitive with lower business taxes, and you will see businesses set up shop here. Not sure how devaluation plays into this. The issue isn't the relative value of yuan versus dollar. It's productivity. US workers are still capable of being the most productive in the world. As the article points out, China's firms have created 'productivity cities' as manufacturing plants. It's actually pretty impressive.
In order to compete, we'd have to not keep our money on a 'fair footing' (such a thing is nonsense), but make our firms more competitive. Furthermore, devaluation of currency creates what? Inflation domestically (for China). Guess why China's having issues now? Their currency policy isn't exactly helping them, in fact it's making things worse. In fact, the Yuan has appreciated against the dollar over the last 20 some-odd years, and last year's devaluation was probably in line with market needs (though I prefer floating rates, China still thinks they can centrally plan shit). Only 10 years ago, the yuan was 8.5 per dollar versus 6.5 today, though 6.5 does factors in last year's devaluations. Those devaluations weren't particularly big, either. They were 'big' in the sense of the single day moves, but over the 10 year span, it's a drop in the bucket. China has bigger problems looming, though. Their mismanagement of their economy is starting to cause issues with their debt structure. If they can't service debt, they may have to devalue further just to keep servicing it....which carries other issues they will have to deal with. Lowering corporate taxes won't cause manufacturing to return. It will allow corporations to start paying their taxes rather than seeking to avoid them, but it doesn't create a different productivity schedule for manufacturing. Most importantly, it doesn't matter if things are made here or in China. You want iPhones made here? Great. Prepare to pay $500 or more for them. And you won't see quality gains. One of the benefits of the massive output of these Chinese plants is that while there are quality issues, most of them are cleared up quickly. In the US, we spend more time clearing up quality issues before we even begin manufacture, which gives long run savings in long life-cycle manufacture, but when pipelines change every 6 months to a year due to upgrades and improvements, making those quality adjustments on the front end is more costly, because they have to be repeated every time there is a new product to pump out. The article kind've addresses that when it talks about how the iPhone screen changed and how quickly the plant adjusted. This wasn't a quality issue, per se, but you can see how they are capable of fixing things. People tend to think of trade as a 'war' in which one nation wins and the other loses. That's mercantilism and is outdated. Modern economies rely on comparative and competitive advantage. While we may be sending $270 to China for an iPhone - which people think is 'bad' because we gave them our money and they have the manufacturing job - we now have the iPhone and all the productivity gains it offers. If those gains were not worth $270, then we wouldn't have made the purchase. But China having our cash means they now have to spend dollars. Or they can hoard them. Or they can invest them. So what have they done? They've invested in the US. Our balance of trade deficit is what people pay attention to. Nobody looks at our foreign investment surplus... Astounding that all that manages to completely skirt the issue. You even bang right against it and still, zip.
This is why "conservatives" are doomed to wander in the desert. Then you should be able to explain to me what 'the issue' is? Rather than you also skirting it, perhaps you can enlighten me?
Oh, you're doing fine on your own. MF is the blog in which the merits of quantity are frequently on display versus those of mere quality.
#2.1.1.1.1
Ten
on
2016-01-21 22:22
(Reply)
And, for what it's worth, while I can see how you'd make the error - I'm not 'conservative' at all. Not even remotely.
You said I missed the point entirely, then you say I'm doing fine.
Which makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. If I missed the point - which perhaps I did, though I doubt it - then perhaps you can enlighten me so I can address the point?
#2.1.1.2.1
Bulldog
on
2016-01-22 08:44
(Reply)
To elaborate: Your not laying a finger on the core issue is unrelated to my pleasure letting lengthy tomes on the issue's symptoms and after-effects stand unrebutted.
This holds true for a half dozen signature, foundational MF fallacies. They either eventually collapse on their own or they become religious. Who's to interfere?
#2.1.1.2.1.1
Ten
on
2016-01-22 09:15
(Reply)
I'll address those issues, and always have.
While I appreciate you gain pleasure from reading what you assume is a fallacy, I don't typically engage fallacy. You may have an opinion which allows you to think something is fallacy (which is fine, that's up to you). But your response is really just trolling. So I don't do that.
#2.1.1.2.1.1.1
Bulldog
on
2016-01-22 09:25
(Reply)
I'll address those issues, and always have.
Albeit not this time, regardless of the hint where you went off the rails, both from the commenter you replied to and the commenter following you. While I appreciate you gain pleasure from reading what you assume is a fallacy, I don't typically engage fallacy. I'm sure appealing on faith to a projection of one's historical principles is positively Aristotelian. You may have an opinion which allows you to think something is fallacy (which is fine, that's up to you). And indeed I do (and have). But your response is really just trolling. So I don't do that. Perhaps. Yet allow me to invite you to go back and see where you went astray. Low degree of difficulty. PS: I could be wrong, but didn't we have a previous exchange about playing the stock market, in which you found it upstanding to take earnings from a little honest gambling because somebody else erected a casino between sidewalk and church and naturally it falls to pedestrians to, in effect, learn to count cards? I mean, they didn't lay the brick. Well, the two issues could be related.
#2.1.1.2.1.1.1.1
Ten
on
2016-01-22 12:30
(Reply)
Oh, you're basing this on some kind of moral grounds?
I see no reason why that should even come into play. I don't do hints. They are trolling. Say what you mean, mean what you say.
#2.1.1.2.1.1.1.1.1
Bulldog
on
2016-01-22 12:58
(Reply)
Yet you lay claims to principle and even to what I assume you mean to be proper form of manly clear speaking. "Trolling" is right out, say you.
I simply requested you be more circumspect about what's actually going on, naturally not to exclude its associated, questionable entanglements elsewhere. If you cannot be more complete, said claims could come second to a want for cognition, I think you'll agree, the real world being what I thought you'd claimed to address. Diagnosing serious illness by limiting examination to its symptoms may comprise some degree of malpractice, rhetorical as all this may be. It's not my blog.
#2.1.1.2.1.1.1.1.1.1
Ten
on
2016-01-22 13:51
(Reply)
Also, yes, we did have that exchange.
I still fail to see where your issues lie on that point. Near as I can tell you seem to think there is a 'problem' of some kind with profit regardless of how it is achieved.
#2.1.1.2.1.1.1.1.2
Bulldog
on
2016-01-22 13:01
(Reply)
"Regardless of how it is achieved"? Regardless; really? Your cite or reference, please. Or is that really just a specious diversion? It sounds like the apparent resort of disinterest in core issues, the obvious issues some here allude to.
Is it even possible, to your way of thinking, that in gross trade imbalance the means of exchange are themselves faulty? And in that matrix, that markets are inherently jimmied (hence to resemble casinos from which experts are morally justified when skimming "profits" that are the redistributed losses of others?) Or does the instinctive commercial nationalism ostensible conservatives - or in this case, inquiring, skeptical, capitalist, traditionalist - actors reflexively invoke somehow prevent that, while the West lies hundreds of trillions in debt, its means of said commerce claimed by these nationalists to be the height of civilization?
#2.1.1.2.1.1.1.1.2.1
Ten
on
2016-01-22 13:30
(Reply)
A trade imbalance is only an imbalance in trade. The balance then takes place elsewhere in the economy. The term "inbalance" is actually quite misleading to any economist worth his salt. The means of exchange is fine. How would you 'fix' it?
The rest of what you wrote isn't meaningful to me because I don't even know what you're implying.
#2.1.1.2.1.1.1.1.2.1.1
Bulldog
on
2016-01-22 13:45
(Reply)
The rest of what you wrote isn't meaningful to me because I don't even know what you're implying.
I know. As I said, it seems you have a moral issue more than anything else. Correction: I have an issue with the amorality of certain systems and again with those who either defend them or refuse to realize what they are and how they function, all the more so in an informed era when we all fairly well know what the real issue is if we simply elect to see it. Which eventually makes this a moral issue, yes. I don't have a moral issue, as you put it.
#2.1.1.2.1.1.1.1.2.1.1.1
Ten
on
2016-01-22 13:57
(Reply)
Saying "I know" does not advance the discussion, but I can tell already that's not in your interest. So if that's how you prefer to troll, then so be it.
As for any of this being a moral issue, whether it's yours or not is immaterial. You say there are some who are "electing" to not see the issue. Perhaps it's just that there is no issue. Or you've created an issue others don't see. Or the issue is there, but lying under the surface so that many others who are well-informed simply can't see it. You take great pains to hide your thoughts.
#2.1.1.2.1.1.1.1.2.1.1.1.1
Bulldog
on
2016-01-25 10:01
(Reply)
As for the "regardless" statement - I made a similar point in our previous conversation. You chose to ignore it and moved past that point. I assumed I was correct. If I'm not, then tell me what kinds of profit are acceptable to you?
As I said, it seems you have a moral issue more than anything else.
#2.1.1.2.1.1.1.1.2.1.2
Bulldog
on
2016-01-22 13:46
(Reply)
per man hour worked, the US worker is far more productive than the Chinese worker.
Per dollar spent by his employer, the Chinese worker is far more productive than the US worker. Guess which of the two determines the price (and profit margin) of the finished product? Let's do a thought experiment.
You and I both have a garden. We both sell from our garden, and we both take seeds from our crops to plant next year. The cost of man-hours for me to take the seeds out is better than yours. Let's say it's $10 and for you it's $15 in man-hour value. You decide that you'll make money from me by 'subsidizing' your seed preparation, and you make more seeds and sell me my entire seed requirements for next year, but you ask for $7. I recognize the value of this, so I stop collecting my own seeds, and purchase yours. How did I lose? Sounds pretty awful. To us.
To them, it's probably a huge step up in life. But there are people who will say "capitalist exploitation" of these people. Ahem. They live in socialist/fascist China. Blame THEIR politicians, not our corporations. More importantly, stop forcing our values on other nations. There's no doubt we've moved past this kind of lifestyle, in terms of work. We didn't even need legislation to do it - look at all the jobs you used to do as a kid that kids WON'T do anymore. Find a kid to mow your lawn? I was lucky to have young men capable of doing it for 10 years or so, but now I'm back to the grind. Shovel the driveway? Even if there is a kid who's willing to do it, legislation in many states and towns makes their work illegal. But finding a kid willing to do it is incredibly hard. Eventually even China will reach this point, and these factories will move someplace else. In the meantime, their government can allow (or force) this kind of labor. But no, it's never coming back here until relative development is robotic enough to make it worthwhile. I suppose, at some point, 3D printing and just in time manufacture will make it possible to bring manufacturing back home, and most assembly will be robotic. But after reading that article, all I can think about is some Democrat screaming "We are EXPLOITING THEM!!" ...but somehow "made in the USA" only adds $4 to the cost of a Moto X compared to what it would cost to offshore the manufacturing.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/08/28/motox_teardown_onshoring_handset_costs/ But, as MissT says, taxes are a part of it, you will notice that the MotoX was made in the USA for the USA market, but made abroad for foreign markets, and a big part of this is because of what counts as taxable in the USA for a corporation's profits. http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/09/25/if-apple-brought-iphone-manufacturing-to-the-us-it-would-cost-them-4-2-billion/#2715e4857a0b34fe88818e29 "8700 industrial engineers"...really? Industrial engineers establish the manufacturing process and workflow, set time standards, etc; once you are doing true mass production the number of IEs required should be pretty independent of the quantity of units produced. Highly questionable IMO that you would need 8700 of them to do this job. Now if they're talking about foremen and shift supervisors, etc, that would make sense.
My moto x (which I bought, in part, because it was made in the USA, pretty much sucks. For when we get around to buying a new cell, I'm looking at a galaxy or even a windows phone. (Bill Gates vice Google. And I like Google less and less every day.)
I once spent a half an hour lost along the Duwamish looking at all the small businesses that once served Boeing. The buildings were vacant, the businesses destroyed. Once America had the density of skilled engineers and tradesmen to improvise new techniques and products. Not so much anymore. China has it. And that is why the advanced technologies will be made in China, though not exclusively.
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