We are a commune of inquiring, skeptical, politically centrist, capitalist, anglophile, traditionalist New England Yankee humans, humanoids, and animals with many interests beyond and above politics. Each of us has had a high-school education (or GED), but all had ADD so didn't pay attention very well, especially the dogs. Each one of us does "try my best to be just like I am," and none of us enjoys working for others, including for Maggie, from whom we receive neither a nickel nor a dime. Freedom from nags, cranks, government, do-gooders, control-freaks and idiots is all that we ask for.
I've always understood the Monty Hall Problem, even as a kid. It seemed relatively simple to me then, still does today.
As a result, Bayesian statistics was pretty easy for me when I was studying Economics. It was the first class we had to take. I was told "if you don't master Bayesian statistics, don't take Economics." I had no issues.
What surprises me is the sudden resurgence of it. It's not like it went anywhere or was misunderstood or even misapplied.
Near as I can tell, it's simply been disregarded as unimportant. Yet Dierdre McCloskey mentions it in her discussion of the "Cult of Statistical Significance" paper: Statistics, magnitudes, coefficients are essential scientific tools. No one can
credibly doubt that. And mathematical statistics is a glorious social and practical and
aesthetic achievement. No one can credibly doubt that, either. Human understanding of
chance and uncertainty would be much reduced were it not for Bayes’s Theorem, gamma
functions, the bell curve, and the rest. From the study of ancient parlor games to the rise
of modern space science, mathematical statistics has shown its power.
I think the best way the concept was explained to me (and this is by no means a complete definition, just a kind of directional explanation to help understand it better) is that Bayesian statistics is percentages of percentages. That odds change, and knowing how they change is useful.
It's come in very handy when I play Texas Hold 'em.