Maggie's Farm

The Volvo Fallacy, aka the Fallacy of Misleading Vividness, is committed when a rare but memorable occurance is given undue statistical weight and meaning because of its dramatic nature.

The "Volvo" comes from the guy who changed his mind about buying a Volvo, despite safety reports, after hearing someone tell him that he knew someone whose Volvo had the wheel fall off on the highway, and crashed and died.

This fallacy works because the vividness factor emotionally overpowers one's statistical sense and one's common sense, resulting in a superstitious-like reaction.

Fifteen years ago, I noticed a $100 bill half-hidden in a pile of leaves at the edge of a parking lot I frequent. I still cannot park there without a glance at that spot, even though I am a rational human. 

Another: I heard somebody choked to death on a steak at Bob's Angus Steak House, so I will never go there again.

Another: I will never take a flight out of Boston again, after 9-11.

Another: I will move from DC to northern Vermont if someone stops the govt from searching for nukes. This is a good one, because the statistical likelihood is an unknown, making it even more vivid in the imagination, and possibly rational.

How can this fallacy be exploited? Try this one: Don't try to convince me that hunting is safe. Four years ago, I heard that a deer hunter killed a game warden by mistake in the woods. (The statistical facts that driving to work, flying in a plane, living in Washington DC, or playing high school football, are more dangerous is ignored.)