As we approach the new year, a common theme of many sites is to review the previous year's events, while casting an eye to the future. Part of my job is to create business models for various lengths of time, so the idea of 'predicting' the future is something I have a level of comfort with. However, the art of prediction is art only. In making any kind of prediction, I've found it is useless to suggest that something will happen with a level of assuredness that exceeds even odds. In fact, my models typically have a High, Medium and Low outlook, with High having about the same likelihood as Low, and Medium being most likely. But Medium is couched as a 50/50 possibility.
Another problem with predicting things is that you can go overboard. Making absolutely outrageous predictions may garner headlines and attract attention, but unless you get extremely lucky, you only wind up looking foolish. I don't need to make myself look any more foolish than I already am. Unless I'm going to make a reasonable prediction, I'd prefer to not make any at all.
It's far too difficult to make assumptions about the behaviors of others, the outcomes of their actions, and the potential ripple effects to make a prediction that is completely assured. That is, unless you rig the system. I don't have the power to do this, so rather than discuss how I'll rig things to make sure I'm right, I'll just link to some predictions from others, make several of my own, and let Maggie's commenters have some fun thinking about how the new year will unfold.
1. Occupy Wall Street will continue to make waves, but we've become bored with them, so as a 'movement' its time has passed.
2. Ron Paul will win in Iowa, but the win will be minimized, delegitimized and anyone who likes him will continue to face media criticism from the likes of Chris Matthews as being 'nuts'. Of course, Chris Matthews is not a bot even though Obama continues to give him a "shiver down his leg." Perhaps he should hit the restroom.
3. Whoever we think will win the Republican nomination today because they lead the polls, will stick around longer than the previous leaders, primarily because the voting will start. But in the end, somebody else will win out.
4. Chris Christie or Nikki Haley will be the Republican VP nominee. I'll go with Christie, though I don't want to see my state lose him. If it's Haley, does the mainstream media still have enough venom left over from Palin to make an intelligent, photogenic woman appear outlandish and despicable? Will the mainstream media go after Christie on his weight issues, even though the MSM is fond of telling us to not judge people by their appearance?
5. The Euro will continue to sink as the mess over there spreads. There is no easy answer, though everyone wants one. Once you've spent more money than you have available, and you have no means of making up the difference quickly or easily, you have to face tough times. The Eurozone is printing money faster than the Fed right now, if that's at all possible.
6. Gold, resting now after shooting up considerably in 2011, will pass $2,000/oz. Whether it continues to climb, and how far, will depend on what happens with Congress, the Presidency, and whether a budget that faces reality is passed. Unlike many other assets, physical gold has no counterparty risk. On the other hand, there are issues of rehypothecation (banks can and have rehypothecated and then it's up to a judge who really owns it....). This should push gold up considerably.
7. I'll get a new roof and the house painted. I'll also lose the 15 pounds I've been trying to lose for the last 3 years, simply because my back is telling me I MUST. This is the only prediction I am 100% sure will happen.
8. The Mayans will be wrong. Well, the people who say the Mayans predicted the end of the world will be wrong. I have no idea what the Mayans really said, and neither do the people who think they predicted anything.
9. By the end of the year, Google will have its first 'bad' quarter and barely meet earnings, but revenues will disappoint. Apple will continue to soar for another year, and Facebook will go public and have a 30%+ return for its initial investors as it plays a major role in the 2012 election cycle.
Got any of your own? Take a crack, let's see what people come up with.
