Maggie's Farm

Orange County, south of Los Angeles and north of San Diego, used to be a reliable Republican stronghold, but changing demographics and a hidebound Republican Party has changed that.

In 1994, Loretta Sanchez lost as a moderate Republican for the Anaheim City Council. In 1996, Sanchez had changed her registration to Democrat and, with the help of the 1990 reapportionment adding many Hispanics, won the Congressional District then represented by conservative Republican Bob Dornan.

Loretta Sanchez is not publicly as radical as her younger sister, Linda, elected to Congress from more liberal Los Angeles in 2002. Yet, in 2009 the liberal Americans for Democratic Action rated her 90%. Her composite conservative score at National Journal is 28%, better than her sister’s 5%. This primarily reflects less antagonistic votes on national security issues. She has expressed her desire for higher political office, so this year’s race is necessary to her ambitions.

Loretta Sanchez, to her credit, and representing the heavy Vietnamese expatriate community in the District – home of little Saigon – has been courageous in publicly damning human rights abuses and the despotism in Vietnam.

This year, Loretta Sanchez faces off against Van Tran, the highest elected Vietnamese in California, who is being termed-out of his state Assembly seat. Van Tran is decidedly conservative. The National Republican Congressional Campaign committee has named him to its Young Guns program for support.

Van Tran’s supporters have been active in the District. While all the major pollsters had rated the seat reliably for Sanchez, Charles Cook just broke from the pack and moved the seat into “leaning” Democrat. Van Tran’s facebook page is full of the hoped for boost from the widespread discredit of the Democrats. I’ve tried repeatedly to speak with Van Tran’s campaign to get a better feel for internal polling, and not received a response.

The District is about 65% Hispanic, 18% White and 14% Vietnamese. The District, where Democrat and Republican registration is near even, was carried by Sanchez with 69.5% of the vote and by Obama with 60.1% in 2008.

The race has not, yet, overtly become an ethnic battle – and shouldn’t -- but Van Tran is counting on the heavier voter turnout usual among Vietnamese to put him over the top. Meanwhile, Nancy Pelosi has highlighted this District as a key concern.

There is momentum evident for Van Tran, as affirmed by the Cook Report shift, but it will take heavy funding and good campaigning for Van Tran to pull off this upset. It’s doable, and tough.