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Sunday, September 9. 2012
Same question I've been asking: Why Is This Election Close?
Hinderaker suggests that it might be the increase in the dependency culture. I wonder whether it's just because Obama's brand is cool, and Romney's is square. I doubt that the country has suddenly swerved Left.
BTW, I think Obama's DNC speech was entirely on purpose. That speech worked before, so why change anything? If it ain't busted, don't fix it.
Well, it is busted, but don't tell anybody.
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Lots of folks I know have given up finding a decent job, or a job at all, and are ready to quit and collect a check if Obama will give them one.
Understand, this is not laziness - this is complete disgust with the system as it currently stands. In a way, it's going Galt for poor to low-income people.
Racial minorities (almost uniformly Dem for whatever reason)
PLUS young people (brainwashed by the left through the education system)
PLUS feminists (abortion)
PLUS homosexuals (gay marriage)
PLUS the people who make a living off the government and/or government funded programs (social workers, the education establishment, lots of lawyers, etc)
EQUALS a majority, or close to it.
We are coming close to being doomed, in my opinion.
How about another hypothesis?
Is it possible that people are not necessarily being honest with the pollsters who are calling them?
Given the level of radioactivity that the whole race issue has taken on in your country, it is entirely possible that people who had previously voted for Obama and have changed their minds this time around are very reluctant to tell anyone calling them on the phone that they no longer support the current President. The prevasive narrative that the only reason someone would oppose him is racism has brought the toxicity of American political discourse to a new level, and it isn't a good one.
In my own experience as a Canadian conservative -
Other than Europeans, the vast majority of cultures around the world have more conservative values, and when speaking to them in terms of those common values of family and hard work, they will tend to support you.
There is a rising trend toward conservatism amoungst the ambitious young, because the left, with their seniority rules and entitlements has meant no career movement and little opportunity. Last in first out is only tolerated for so long by people who want to get on with their lives. The ones who have no ambition aren't the ones you want on your side (see occupy).
The majority of Women are NOT feminists, and heartily wish that they would cease claiming that they speak for all of us with two X chromosomes.
There are more conservative homosexuals than you might think. The ones in my circle weren't looking for a religious sanctification of their relationship, they only wanted a means to acquire legal standing for things we take for granted such as decision making in medical emergencies, and property rights for estates.
Not all educators and lawyers (or even employees of the government) are particularly enamoured with the way that the government runs things. Moreso, they are disgusted with the relationship between certain political parties (NDP, separatists, and Liberals in Canada)and the bodies which are supposed to be only in the business of representing their interests. Most of us don't like seeing our money being funneled, without our consent, to causes we oppose, with no grounds for recourse and no way to opt out.
I'm fervently hoping that there is more cause for optimism. I really like your country, and want it to do well. People once thought (and some people still cling to this) that Canada was a 'socialist' country. The last couple of elections have started to dispel this illusion. Pierre Trudeau and St. Tommy Douglas are not dead enough....
I'm sorry, but the USA is a socialist country, and the Democrats are a Euro-socialist party. A clear majority of Americans wants socialism. It will be an accident of electorate stupidity if Romney is elected. It is probable we will never see another moderate/conservative in the White House. It is also probable we will collapse into some sort of totalitarian socialist dictatorship.
PS. The military/police will happily obey their socialist masters and crush us.
I'm glad I'm old.
Is this election close?
We can't trust the media so why would we trust the pollsters?
Agreed. John Kerry had 17% lead over GWB after the DMC convention. Really!
The election is close for a myriad of reasons. One of them is that virtually EVERY election is "close", depending on how you define it.
If Romney has 51% of the vote nationally, that means little if Obama has enough electoral votes tied up. We saw what happens with that in 2000. People get pissed off, but it's a logical reason. The Electoral College was designed to create a situation where the rural regions have additional 'votes' to offset the power of a growing urban elite. Let's face it, the views of people in the major cities is not remotely similar to those of us in the rural or suburban regions.
However, urban areas have grown enough that their power is extended by a variety of means. Many people in the suburbs have been transplanted from urban areas, and the media dominate from urban areas.
I work in the media in NYC. I see the power it has. It's not 100%, but I'd say it's a good 65%. That is, I don't care how moderate you are, when you hear a personality you like say many times over "we need health care, we need a jobs bill, we need politicians to 'fix' things", you begin to believe that hey - maybe that nice guy on the tube has a point.
It doesn't help that uber-liberals like Ellen DeGeneres have extremely popular talk shows and that they make their political views known, in a comfortable setting, to impressionable people who 'like that funny person on the TV'.
This is NOT a commentary calling for censorship. I respect the right of a voice to be heard. But I do not respect the silencing of voices which have strived to be heard over and over, but are constantly misrepresented, misquoted, or left out by the media.
We just have to alter our message. We are, unjustly, positioned as anti-gay, anti-abortion, anti-poor, and a host of other antis which are partially true. But totally misrepresented.
We need to recraft our message in a way which is more acceptable. If we don't we will be pushed aside, and rightly so.
The youth of today ARE seeking responsibility and guidance, rather than handouts and platitudes. But if that's all they get, they will get used to it and change their views.
The time frame is short, but the stakes are large. We can no longer let the Democrats and the media define us - we must position our message as one of tolerance, care, and justice. Which is precisely what it is, but just not exactly the way the Democrats want it.
We are becoming the Veruca Salt nation - I want what I want, and I want it NOW! But sometimes patience is key.
Should Obama win, he will fail. And fail miserably. He will say "the Republicans did it", but eventually the people will see through his BS.
I suspect Rasmussen is accurate. I think it is close, and I think Obama's ahead. I too wonder why. I favor the coolness theory, but that may be because I am a Boomer, and that is accurate about us. It may not be about other age groups.
But I suspect it is, if one expands the "coolness" idea to include other essentially emotive, nonrational qualities. Republicans are of course not only not hip, but don't understand women (by which we mean, the women who are closest to the journalism and entertainment industries), have no sympathy for poor people, hate black people because they are criticising one, are hypocrites and insensitive and all the rest.
These things affect people powerfully. Where I work, people are either liberal or "don't care much about politics," and the latter always have nasty bigoted things to say about Republicans. If we had sopme way of enforcing a fair fight in elections - which we cannot - the Democratic Party would cease to exist in current form.
Of course, the Republicans would look pretty different as well.
Romney isn't that great a politician. And vast swathes of the liberal hinterland are clueless, utterly uniformed. Liberals tell me Obama is brilliant and doing a great job. They are confused to learn that WV might vote for Romney because they have never heard of coal. They listen to the MSM, which isn't about to publicize the state of the union. In other words, there are many who live in a bubble. I think anyone who lives in MA or CT will have run into this many times.
I'm really curious about how the election will turn out, I don't have a good feel for that at all.
Some of my female acquaintances who backed Obama in 2008 no longer like him. They also don't want to vote for Romney. They simply plan to stay home on Election Day.
I've heard the same as Jungle Trader - many former Obama supporters will stay home.
This doesn't matter much. He could lose 2% of the people who voted for him and still win the 3 major battleground states he needs to win the Electoral College.
Roger Ailes famously said every election is determined by 5% of the population. This will be as true today as it ever was. If that 5% - as yet undeclared or not knowing who they vote for - swing for Romney for one reason or another (I believe unemployment could drop to 7.8%, and the welfare rolls climb substantially and people will begin to realize 7.8% is meaningless - and shift their vote).
Or something else could happen. I'm not sure what, but something odd, something unexpected.
Frankly, I think the market will crash in October. It's overextended as it is, and QEX+1 is factored in already. So no matter what old Ben does, the fact remains the market will give up the ghost eventually. I just hope it's before the election.
Even polling groups know enough to add in the effective fraud votes that democrats generate of 6% to 7%. If they can't turn these votes out they lose.
Correct. Same here in Europe.
I hate it, but when and if I can recover some of the money stolen from me by taking government graft I will. And that's the attitude of many.
And ever more the way to get some of that money back to a large proportion of the lesser educated seems to be to vote leftist, and of course the MSM plays on that by creating an image of right wing/centrist politicians and groups as being dangerous, corrupt, radicals who're only out to "steal from the poor to make the rich richer".
You've got it, that's the magic formula. The sad thing is that both black and Hispanic voters could be swept up by the Republicans on cultural issues, if it weren't for the economic brainwashing going on.
Look at the down ticket races and the O has no coattails (or negative ones). There may be two things going on here at the same time:
1. People are reluctant to say they are against Obama
2. People are comfortable with a dem prez and a GOP congress
Most the reasoning I hear from people about why they continue to support Obama is that they fear change and the unknown. If you have a split government, the current benefits will flow but the worst of Obama's ideas will be stopped. Like the French, we are not yet admitting the money has run out.
Sooooooooo, why are the Dems so willing and happy to suppress the military vote? Because it makes the military happy with them?
The answer is simply "free stuff". The Democrats are promising free stuff and their diverse membership of special interest groups all want free stuff. These people are like druggies hooked on free stuff and the only thing that can cure them is cold turkey. The only possibility of cold turkey for this problem is economic collapse and ironically Obama's vision assures economic collapse will happen sooner rather then later.
If things don't improve around here, i'm moving to Gilligan's Island. Or maybe Petticoat Junction.