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Friday, November 14. 2008

Peter Schiff Gets It Right on the Economy - 2006 & 2007

Somebody has compiled clips of Peter Schiff, the Ron Paul economic advisor and president of Darien, Connecticut-based Euro Pacific Capital, from Fox News business segments over the past few years, debating with the likes of Ben Stein and Art Laffer.  Schiff gets the last laugh.

Posted by The Dylanologist in Hot News & Misc. Short Subjects at 12:45 | Comments (11) | Trackbacks (0)

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Great piece, I'm really struck at how badly he was treated by the hosts. What's his tune today? He wasn't all right because did gold stay at $1000?
#1 grant1863 on 2008-11-14 14:02 (Reply)
I totally agree with grant1863 both about the piece and about how badly Schiff was treated by Neil Cavuto & Company. Check out the expression on his face at 4:48, a truly haunted man sees the writing on the wall but cannot get through to the cock-sure chatterers.
#2 Sissy Willis (Link) on 2008-11-14 14:12 (Reply)
A good lesson. Smart people like Stein, Laffer, Kudlow, etc. can all agree on something and be horribly wrong about it.

His call for gold is still early, but he will be proven right on that too I think. Right now deflation is the concern so gold isn't doing well, but in 2009 we'll probably see the effect of low interest rates world wide and inflation will take charge. Gold may keep going down short term, but it may be time to start thinking about a buying opportunity.
#3 Captain Obviousness on 2008-11-14 14:20 (Reply)
Whoops. That haunted look is at 7:48.
#4 Sissy Willis (Link) on 2008-11-14 14:32 (Reply)
All bears are right sooner or later. Lots of bulls played long throughout Peter Schiff's years & years of bear warnings, and made plenty of money. How many of 'em still have it is a different question (*sob*).
#5 buddy larsen on 2008-11-14 17:10 (Reply)
Well, as they say, just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're not after you. Regardless of what this guy said in the past, his diagnosis in '06 was based on a sound analysis of the economy, not just reflexive pessimism.

I found it just as remarkable to find Ben Stein recommending Merrill Lynch as a guaranteed win at 78/share, and the other guy pushing Washington Mutual of all stocks! Schiff was right, but there guys weren't just off by a bit, they were disastrously wrong -- and no doubt encouraged some people to invest in WaMu and Merrill, which have been nearly 100 percent losses.
#5.1 The_Dylanologist on 2008-11-14 18:25 (Reply)
Schiff was making far more money than people in the dow and the nasdaq by investing abroad.
#5.2 Peter Lodge (Link) on 2008-11-15 08:04 (Reply)
Good stuff. I do think that much of the pessimism in the business world has to do with what just happened in the election. All the business people I talk to have a huge amount of uncertainty about what to expect for regulations and taxes over the next year. The Democrats are hard at work coming up with ever-more horrifying new taxes to pay off their special interest friends. If they can control themselves, things may get better, if not, this is going to be a long deep recession.

Those who can get their money out of the country are doing so now before Obama and the Democrats try to spread it around.
#6 NJSoldier on 2008-11-14 17:22 (Reply)
This guy has a post which talks about this, NJSoldier. Check it out -- he notes that the stock market had its worst ever post-election week:

http://rkdpolitics.blogspot.com/2008/11/obama-and-stock-market.html
#6.1 The_Dylanologist on 2008-11-14 18:11 (Reply)
If Obama is Clinton like perhaps he will respond to the stock market as Clinton did to the bond market. When it said inflation or disaster ahead he stopped what he was doing. Of course a Republican Congress with a proposed reputation for restraining spending didn't hurt either. Might be a good combo for 2010.
#7 grant1863 on 2008-11-14 18:35 (Reply)
Schiff has had a tough year as well although not nearly as bad as domestic mutual funds. He looks at systemic problems with the US economy and he may be right, at least I think he's right. It's a trading market. Buy low and sell high. It will be a while before this economy straightens itself out. Gold belongs in each portfolio. Long and short is the only to play this but forget buy and hold. Long gold and short treasuries might make some sense as a core position.
#8 Tom C on 2008-11-15 20:46 (Reply)

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