Maggie's Farm

al Qaeda made a mistake in believing that the insular view of tribalism it had from KSA, Africa and the border regions along Afghanistan, would be the same in Iraq. AQI made the insane mistake of declaring war on the tribes in Anbar... and the Anbari's reciprocated. That from tribes that hold grudges going back at least two centuries if not longer.

Even worse is that after all this time from all parts of Iraq, people identify themselves as Iraqi, first... tribe, second... religion comes in at third or fourth depending cross-border clan lineages. Of course our grand mufti's from LBJ and the rise of Saddam to Clinton could figure this out, and that is an all-inclusive listing for those between them, no exceptions. Left and Right, no one bothered to actually understand Iraq. A symptom of post-British rule, I'm sure. Can't blame AQI for not bothering either, and they have proven to be very, very, very slow learners in this realm. Which is why they now have to align themselves with Hekmatyar and Mehsud in Pakistan...

The turning point was the 2005-06 campaign to Tal Afar backed by Special Forces, and things have been ramping up since then. Too bad no one pays attention to those things, because that is when Iraq started to stand up for itself. I do expect a political re-alignment there with the provincial/governate elections this year... and the national ones next year, but that is political. And this ruling coalition is scrambling hard to demonstrate 'leadership', which is to find a movement and get in front of it.