Maggie's Farm

Ursus Major, Redux

The most famous bear market rally in history is the rise, which took place following the October crash of 1929. Stocks began to recover strongly following the November 13th 1929 low amidst wildly bullish comments
From a low at 199 on November 13 - down from the September 4, peak at 381- the Dow Jones Industrial rallied to a high of 294 in April 1930 ( up 48% ).

No one anticipated a recession, let alone a depression. Charles Mitchell who headed the National City Bank, announced soon after the crash that the trouble was 'purely technical' and that 'the fundamentals remained unimpaired'. While President Hoover assured the American people that 'the fundamental business of the country, that is production and distribution of commodities, is on a sound and prosperous basis.'

US Secretary of the Treasury, Andrew Mellon also remained confident about the economy: On December 31, 1929, he stated: 'I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism… I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress' and in February 1930, he added, 'there is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about'.

The Federal Reserve Bank cut the discount rate immediately following the crash from 6% to 5% on November 1, 1929, to 4.5% on November 15, and to 4% on January 30, 1930. Subsequently the discount rate was repeatedly cut to 2.5% in June 1930, to 2% in December 1930, and 1.5% in mid 1931.

Beware of Bear Market rallies. Contrary to what we are being told the fundamentals of our economy are no longer simply the fundamentals of our economy. We're global now and the worlds biggest debtor nation by far, while at the same time outsourcing jobs while our dollars craters against other currencies. Meanwhile the government continues to print fiat money backed by thin air.

Fundamentals aren't "solid" in that environment, particularly when we are forced to borrow from the Chinese to save our economy from imploding..and as I mentioned yesterday we haven't uncovered the depth of the mortgage insurers exposure to this fallout ... can anybody spare a dime?

Tranche ..get use to the word

The word tranche is French for slice, section, series, or portion; in the financial sense of the word, each bond is a slice of the deal's risk.

Continuing down the long and unwinding road that is our current circumstance if you asked ANY CEO of a bank, mortgage company, mortgage insurer or even guru George Soros just how many variations on tranche composition there currently are and what there value is or downside risk is, NOT ONE, NOT ONE would be able to give you an answer.

This is the game they have been playing as the securitized the mortgages, sub prime and otherwise, over the past five or six years and then sent their sales forces out to sell the general public "securitized' investments, backed by peoples homes..you can hear them now in the sale pitch .."These are safe investment, many insured by other companies and after all, who wants to lose their home?" Many mutual funds loaded up too. Just check you mutual funds investments.

Even the most casual of American home checkbook balancers and bill payers have some idea of where their they stand ...not so in the corridors of "sophisticated " finance on Wall Street.

Can anybody spare a dime?

Well I've used the phrase now twice, get clued.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eih67rlGNhU&feature=related

Dear Negro woman. What African tribe be you from?

I don't to black..maybe a nice octoroon.

And is that just a cold sore on yo lip?

BD ..... what do you have against octoroons?

Meta..bring me this woman..no substitues, no exceptions.

http://tbn0.google.com/images?q=tbn:mI6GcBDXfiVxDM:http://www.victoria-

A word on what a Democratic presidential victory will mean for the future of the Supreme Court.

BAD

If a future Supreme Court ruling outlawed private gun ownership would gun owners comply peacefully or would we have a shootout between highly conflicted National Guard troops, FBI and ATF agents?

I say there would be a shootout and those FBI,ATF, and national Guardsmen that attempted to enforce such a ruling would come out on the very short end of the stick.

Any other thoughts out there?

I agree if they move against private gun ownership they'll be a good deal of mutiny in the services given that they are sworn to uphold the Constitution and the 2nd Amendment guarantees that Constitution.

In fact military personnel are only required to carry out lawful orders ..go'n and grab'n your hunt'n buddies guns ain't in that category

If would not surprise me at all to see the Democrats attempt that very thing, in which case a million man march on DC under arms should be a sufficient Gun-O-Gram to the Dems.

Good points Walt.

But if the countless bimbos Bill has had over the years plus the ones we know about:
Juanita Broaddrick
Kathleen Wiley
Paula Jones
Jennifer Flowers
Monica Lewensky
Denise Rich

plus an impeachment

couldn't scandalize Bill into shame and averting the limelight then nothing will. He is a full blown sociopath and I still maintain he was recruited by the KGB during his Oxford holiday to Russia. Somewhere someone knows that but as happens so often they are "protecting" the American people from such horrible information ... for our own good naturally.

My grandfather pitched for the Cubs in 1931 and 1932 when they went to the WS and played the Yankees, losing four straight to Ruth and Gehrig et al. He had some great stories of his 17 years in the majors beginning in 1922.

He once went 22 innings by himself. In the 20 and 21st inning the team he was playing for had no outs and the bases loaded but couldn't score. It was a heartbreaker to lose. The other team at that time was the Cubs.

At the end of his career he came off of third base coaching duty to pitch against the St Louis Cards. The second man up got a hit. He then retired the next 25 in a row and he drove in the winning run. The Cards had Dizzy Dean and were leading the league at the time.

A Georgia boy he often hunted with Ty Cobb and was one of the last people to see Cobb in the hospital before he died. Boy did he have some great baseball stories.

Maybe the Cubs will make it all the way..one day.