We are a commune of inquiring, skeptical, politically centrist, capitalist, anglophile, traditionalist New England Yankee humans, humanoids, and animals with many interests beyond and above politics. Each of us has had a high-school education (or GED), but all had ADD so didn't pay attention very well, especially the dogs. Each one of us does "try my best to be just like I am," and none of us enjoys working for others, including for Maggie, from whom we receive neither a nickel nor a dime. Freedom from nags, cranks, government, do-gooders, control-freaks and idiots is all that we ask for.
Our Recent Essays Behind the Front Page
Sunday, December 2. 2007
Some of these links don't work - I apologize - will fix after church.
The Fear of a Blue Planet. NY Post. Yes, it does frighten be a bit because I do not think those folks give a darn about my individual freedom. They claim to care about the "greater good" of "the people," but I never met "the people." History tells me that "the greater good" means a power grab from me to the State, with efforts to placate me with bread and circuses and cheap doctors trained in Pakistan, Russia, and Africa. I do not like that; I do not approve of that, and I do not think that is the American way: that's what our Revolution was all about. If I were running for office, I would run on "the American way."
The Pope on eternal life. NRO
Repub candidates and immigration. Flares
Dutch CIA spies on Dutch media. Pajamas
Canadian Molson Beer drinkers will drown French prisons?
The NYT always finds the negative. Since war is no longer staggering Iraq, now corruption is. Trying to be multiculturally sensitive, I thought that bribes were an intrinsic part of Midde Eastern culture - so this must mean that things are returning to normal.
The ripple effects of the subprime mess: Nobody knows what it will mean. Dino
Photo from A Slower Pace. Kentucky is Dan'l Boone country.
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Political rage is largely due to an etymological mistake.
French outre, beyond what is proper, is made into a noun with -age, and then imported into Enlish as outrage.
English then notices the -rage, and decides that what is beyond what is proper deserves rage, the word itself says so.
The slight and the reaction become fused as one.
This is so useful that the word is reimported back into French.
Daniel Boone lived a good long life. He was always looking at the far horizon.
So the NYT finds corruption a problem. Maybe they should look out their Manhattan windows across the Hudson and write something about the corruption in New Jersey--most 99.9% of which is in the hands of the Democratic party.
Hey, get it while you can. When raiding, piracy and hostage taking are part of your 'culture' anything can be rationalized. Now, as far as the Iraqi's are concerned...
One of the benefits of doing a look at the Chinese Non-Performing Loan problem is getting to look at the US system and find out where the 'goodies' are, to examine banking and credit finances in the US.
To start one goes to the Federal Reserve Board Charge-Off and Delinquency rates page ( http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/chargeoff/ ). Delinquent loans are all those 30+ past days overdue and given as a percentage, per column, of loans in that column. Currently that is at 2.74% of residential loans, and that is about what was seen during the housing market bubble that ended in the early 1990's... folks do remember that, right?
Next is the Charge-Off rate, or loans uncollectable (although there may be some insurance coverage involved) as a percent of all loans. In the residential area that is 0.25% which, again, mirrors the previous housing market bubble in the early 1990's.
Both are at decadal highs, but not out of the range of measurement, even though it has only been measured since 1991. To put that into perspective the Credit Card column for this is (D/CE): 4.29% / 4.00%. It appears that once a credit card goes 30 days delinquent it is, basically, unrecoverable.
Now, to get the scope of that in the overall lending practices of all banks, we can hit the FDIC Uniform Bank Performance Report and take the 'All Banks' report:
Here, on page 2, we can see the historical increase of TE in loans to 'real estate' (notice that commercial and industrial are separated) which reflects these lovely sub-prime loans and other 'loan vehicles' that somehow have you paying higher percentages later which never get here until they do. A few lines down shows the volatility within a fixed range of Credit Card earnings based on what is lent via them. Increasing yields in real estate loans and more or less steady income in Credit Card: a money making combination.
On page 4 we get to see the outstanding percent of assets tied up in real estate on 1-4 Family Residential: 0.67%. Note Credit Card to get scale of the size of things: 0.14%. The overall scale of all loans on real estate, credit card, commercial, industrial: 11.37%
Skipping over the Loan to Lease ratios pages, we get to page 6 and the break-out of loans and leases. heading past their due date, with 1-4 Family Construction loans getting to 0.76% up to 30 days, and then 0.89% Past/Due. In comparison Credit Cards on 6A are 0.48% and 1.14%, respectively, mirroring the gross industry averaging at the FRB, although it counts slightly different things to get its rates. It is interesting to see that such a difference in percent does not mirror actual write-off, which tends to put high balance cards as the main loss in the P/D column.
Page 7 gives the Loans and Liabilities that are up to one year and past one year and how they balance each other off.
So this puts all those sub-prime loans in part of the larger real estate market which, iteself for residential work, is 0.67% of the overall banking industry. What most folks are worried about are the 'ripples' which could be similar to the pre-internet stock boom years of 1992-95. Remembering back to the pre-internet bubble can be difficult, but it was an era of pretty slow but continuous growth, that would see real estate come back by the beginning of the upward trend for the internet speculation era. Having bought a home in 1992 and watching its valuation go up to where it was before the last housing bubble, that puts recover at 3-5 years for something that is: widespread, systemic, has over-valued markets and a weak underlying economy. The ripples then were in the durable goods market. By the beginning of the net bubble economy, things had, basically recovered.
The sub-prime loans being such a smaller part of the overall residential mix and that, itself, being a small part of the economy, I don't see what the fuss is about. These NPLs will be quickly expunged through the system as no longer term GDP depends on it: it was a market to get more money for bankers. Remember that is a residential NPL rate of 0.25% and only as 0.67% of the overall real estate market held by banks in their portfolios or, yes, less than 0.02% of the banking supported economy.
China's problem is that, on the conservative side, 30% of its GDP is underwritten by NPLs. Sub-prime loans, at worse, are 0.5% of the GDP. Japan, before its bubble, was at 10% of its economy on NPLs, and the other Asian Tigers that went down similarly were at 12-15% NPL rates. Fussing over sub-primes? Why? Are you prepared for the end of the Chinese bubble economy?
Excellent research and analysis, ajacksonian. I've been through the permit, start, completion, sales data on SFRs provided by Census in order to calculate inventory "overhang" and there ain't none to speak of.
Is there a subprime problem? Sure. Magnitude? My bet is less than or equal to the S & L "crisis". The actual problem is the successful appeal to mob pyschology which has put the good old mob in "wait and see" mode. That just might cause a recession in the first quarter. It wouldn't be the first time that the cry of the loon and the yokel have drowned out common sense. There's nothing like using total ignorance of the meaning of notional numbers to drive the mob.
Re: The NYT always finds...
Yes, very astute,me thinks.
Muhammad's culture thrives in Iraq because it is a legitmazation of barbarism in all it's animus.
Democracy is an uphill slog which needs an invigorating dose of Christ.
Muslim get it together so well with atheists but with leg up because Islam has deified survival of the fittest.
PC's would have citizens believe there is a war of civilizations but it ain't so.
The war is civilization vs barbarism, once again.
"Death-light of Africa...have dared the white republics"
"They swell in sapphire smoke out of the blue cracks of the ground,--
They gather and they wonder and give worship to Mahound."
"St. Michaels on his Mountain in the sea-roads of the north ...
Don John calling through the blast and the eclipse
Crying with the trumpet, with the trumpet of his lips,
Trumpet that sayeth ha!
Don John of Austria
Is shouting to the ships." GKChesterton
Vivant free peoples.
Not like those folks were "free" in the way we mean it. Free from Moslem conquest? Yes.
Hope we all remain that kind of free.
Free in that time must of been very sweet, crawlin into the light from the belly of Muhammadan galleys.
"Breaking of the hatches up and bursting of the holds,
Thronging of the thousands up that labour under sea
White for bliss and blind for sun and stunned for liberty."
Gk's contributions are boon to the cause.
Your insight on bribery coasts of Islam, are hopeful too.
The luxury of Dubai is built with $4 a day laborers sweat and blood.
Perhaps, Iran's first nuke armed missle will take that out.
Then dem's like Senator Webb might find cause to settle in tight on sunni and shite.
RE: the following from the angry Muslim teddy bear article....
"Some angrily denounced the teacher, but others smiled as they beat drums and burned newspapers with Gibbons' picture, waving swords and clubs and green banners, the color of Islam."
I think just maybe the smiling ones were smiling and happy because they had just gotten paid some money.
More Muslim bribery a work?
Hmm, greenbacks maybe.
Khartoon Islamists, as well their aki round the globe are known as the Green party, coinsidentally.