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Saturday, August 4. 2007
Postcard quote from daughter in Barcelona: "You will be pleased to know (I hope) that I have taken up Catalan." I had to get clear on exactly what Catalan is.
Posted by Bird Dog in The Culture, "Culture," Pop Culture and Recreation at 18:53 | Comments (54) | Trackbacks (0)
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If you know French and have taken some Spanish, or vice versa, you can understand Catalan. It is kind of a mix, and rather fun. And once you understand it, you have to read "Tirant lo Blanc." A great medieval romance...
A Catalan is a small twin-hulled sailboat, captained by an alcoholic middle-aged playboy Spanish prince son-in-law.
heh heh --just needlin' BD, whose daughter is now, as was mine a year ago, hanging out in Spain.
"Hi, Dad! Look what I found in Spain!"
"Buenos Dias, Papa! Como esta usted?"
Catalan is a secret anti spam program that knows when I touch the keyboard and locks me out.
Now for the story.
This is a wonderful story about couples sharing.
This is what marriage is really all about!
He ordered one hamburger, one order of French fries and one drink. The
old man unwrapped the plain hamburger and carefully cut it in half. He
placed one half in front of his wife. He then carefully counted out the
French fries, dividing them into two piles and neatly placed one pile in
front of his wife.
He took a sip of the drink, his wife took a sip and then set the cup
down between them. As he began to eat his few bites of hamburger, the
people around them kept looking over and whispering. You could tell they
were thinking, "That poor old couple - all they can afford is one meal
for the two of them."
As the man began to eat his fries a young man came to the table. He
politely offered to buy another meal for the old couple. The old man
said they were just fine - They were used to sharing everything.
The surrounding people noticed the little old lady hadn't eaten a bite.
She sat there watching her husband eat and occasionally taking turns
sipping the drink.
Again the young man came over and begged them to let him buy another
meal for them. This time the old woman said "No, thank you, we are used
to sharing everything."
As the old man finished and was wiping his face neatly with the napkin,
the young man again came over to the little old lady who had yet to eat
a single bite of food and asked "What is it you are waiting for?"
A man was leaving a convenience store with his morning coffee when he noticed a most unusual funeral procession approaching the nearby cemetery.
A long black hearse was followed by a second long black hearse about 50 feet behind the first one.
Behind the second hearse was a solitary man walking a pit bull on a leash. Behind him, a short distance back, were about 200 men walking single file.
The man couldn't stand his curiosity. He respectfully approached the man walking the dog and said, 'I am so sorry for your loss', I know now is a bad time to disturb you, but I've never seen a funeral like this. Whose funeral is it?'
'What happened to her?
The man replied, 'My dog attacked and killed her.'
He inquired further, 'Well, who is in the second hearse?'
The man answered, 'My mother-in-law. She was trying to help my wife and the dog turned on her.'
A poignant and thoughtful moment of silence passed between the two men.
'Can I borrow the dog?'
'Get in line.'
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any real spaniard will tell you if you do not speak catalan you don't speak spanish. every country has it's real mccoy's and the catalan region is Espana. Recuerdate que todo se dice con la zeta!
Afghan poppy crop harvest sets another record
Nation produces nearly 95 percent of world’s heroin supply, U.S. official says
Do you Americans think we want to raise, what, soybeans?
THATS BULL SHIT. ETHANOL made as a by product of the infusion of barley and hops in a ratio of 12:5:8 will yield 73
1 TWyr = 8.76 x 1012 kWh = 31.54 EJ = 29.89 quad which will convert to heat content of crude oil from about 5.6 million Btu (MBtu) per barrel to about 6.3 MBtu (5). The heat content of typical petroleum products varies even more (see Table 1). A nominal conversion factor is sometimes used for a barrel of crude oil, which is close to its actual average energy content:
1 barrel of oil equivalent = 5.80 MBtu.
With this definition, a correspondence can be established between millions of barrels of oil per day (Mbd) and quads per year:
1 Mbd = 0.0058 x 365 = 2.12 quad/yr.
which is sometimes rounded off to: 1 Mbd = 2 quad/yr.
Now I need a nap. Idiots
Rufus --I missed the first part of the discussion --however, will add that it looks like the Mambo Kings at the big brokerage houses have managed to slow down future USA energy consumption for awhile. Monday should be a beaut.
That's okay, Buddy; I missed the WHOLE DISCUSSION. Man, I wish I knew what that stuff the "OTHER" RUFUS typed. Then, I'd know whether to go ahead and take credit for it.
I have a hunch I need to check up on where Habu was at along about 21:39. I, also, have a hunch it has somethin to do with Bud Light.
As for monday, whew; we'll see. Bear, and the boyyz, has loaded up the vault with (Subprime) lead, I'm afraid, and is out there tryin to bullshit everone into thinkin it's triple A Gold. But, they ain't buyin it.
This might be bye bye for Mr. Bear (Stearns, that is.)
btw, that really WASN'T ME that made that post #8.
If it had been me, I'd a been ranting about buying the poppies and making biodiesel. But, you'all know that, right?
Buddy, I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see the Dow sell off a thousand points Monday, and maybe another thousand tuesday.
I, also, wouldn't be surprised to see it go up two hundred. I, honestly, can't imagine what would Surprise me, Monday, except, for maybe, a really big Gain.
It's been a long, long time since the market caught this many big-shots up to the elbow in the cookie jar. The 1800's, I guess.
is a Perfect Example of what you're up against.
All the bad mortgage loans together couldn't pay the mortgage on Steve Forbes' house, but they've got it so balled up that half of the world doesn't know if they have exposure, and those that know won't fess up even if it's infinitesimal.
As a result, absolutely NOBODY WILL BUY "ANYTHING." Somebody will step in in a couple of days (or weeks) and start buying everything in sight, and end up owning the World. It's going to be a story for the "Ages."
In the meantime, do you think old "helicopter" Ben could step up to the mike and say a few nice words? NOOoooo.
STOCKS FINALLY HAD THEIR BOUNCE LAST WEEK, only to run into a buzz saw in the final session. Early on Friday, Goldilocks took a spill when the Bureau of Labor (or is it Labored) Statistics released July's job report, and it sure wasn't anything to write home about. A much more modest gain in hiring than the Street seers anticipated, coupled with a rise in the unemployment rate, gave the briefly revived bulls that sinking feeling once again.
As the day wore on, those extremely bad vibes from housing, the battered mortgage market and the furrowed brows of lenders of every description began to make everyone who hadn't escaped to the Hamptons very, very nervous.
And then, that awful cracking sound you may have heard was the bond market buckling and finally breaking wide open, which didn't exactly do much to shore up sentiment.
And just what badly bruised bonds didn't need was for the chief financial officer of Bear Stearns (and who would know better) to tell analysts in a conference call that things in the fixed-income market were "as bad as I've seen it in 22 years" and to compare the current environment with the debt crisis of the late '90s.
Maybe the Thais and the Russians and the rest of those developing countries who were in the soup back then will remember who bailed them out and buy some of our wobbly bonds. Do us a favor, though, and don't hold your breath, please, while waiting.
Although we didn't have time to ask him, we have a hunch none of this came as a shock to Jeremy Grantham, who runs GMO, which manages very big bucks for institutions and affluent individuals. For in his latest quarterly letter, dated July, Jeremy pretty much advised investors to expect the worst.
He pointed out that the mushrooming growth of leveraged loans, some $545 billion globally in the first half and up a notable 60% over the corresponding '06 total, was very much reminiscent of the equivalent gain in price of the Internet and tech stocks in the opening six months of 1999.
He suggested, too, that there's an uncomfortably close affinity between all the fuss and media attention paid to the online and tech heroes then and the current hoopla over the new LBO masters of the universe. More than likely, he implied, this new gilded age will end as ignominiously as did its predecessor six years ago.
Jeremy confided that he has been trying to come up with a straightforward formulation to capture "how serious the situation is for the overstretched, overleveraged financial system." The simple statement he hit on was that, in five years, he expected that at least one major bank will go belly up and that as many as half of the hedge funds and a substantial percentage of the private-equity funds now throwing their money and weight around "will have ceased to exist."
Jeremy, who has seen it all in his 40 years in the investing business, freely acknowledged he has "often been too bearish about the U.S. equity markets in the last 12 years" (although to his credit and clients' satisfaction he has been a big bull on emerging equity markets). But, he asserted, "I think it fair to say that my language has almost never been this dire. The feeling I have today is that of watching a very slow- motion train wreck."
That train wreck has picked up speed since Jeremy wrote those words. And we suspect the nightmarish ride is far from over.
(from Barron's today --ought to make us all feel better. Agree BTW on Luskin --he sharp as a razor)
Heh --I didn't think that sounded like you --maybe a wrong-threaded argument from elsewhere.
You're right about BearStearns, I think. However my brain guy sez they are too smart to get in this spot. "You mean the spot they're in, is the spot they're too smart to get in?" I asked.
If we get the rate cut Monday, so Bernanke can explain it on the Tues meeting, then we'll know that the boyzz just somehow forget the dotcom bust.
I've been banking--literally--on that low P/E ratio to floor up any swoon. Jeez--hope I'm right, getting a little long in the tooth to head back to the drilling rigs.
How do you ask members of a society to stop shooting when martial-themed hootenannies are everywhere?
You will have to offer the Iraqis a hootenanny of a different kind, one celebrating something different than sectarian superiority.
You must get into their minds and into their economics, and then enough of their culture may follow. A new hootenanny tradition that does not applaud sectarian chauvanism may rise and values may change as a result of this. Dishdashas and thobes will whirl and, who knows, maybe even a little najis will creep into the song and dance and if the cornbeef is to be in the fire then how can you play without the hornwhistle that hightops use?
Buddy, I agree about the 15 times forward. I wouldn't be surprised to see some hoi polloi get their heads chopped off in the coming weeks (months?,) but I WOULD be surprised if we weren't pretty much done with it by Halloween.
The boys had customers that wanted higher yields than bonds were giving them, and the boys got Frisky. Then, they got Criminal, and THEN they got Stone, Cold Stupid. At least, that's the way I figure it.
Anyway, like I said, I think the market will be back by Christmas, if not before; and, maybe they'll put a couple of the Blue Suede Boys in the hoosegow this time like they shoulda done after Enron.
Of course, then there's the Rufus factor. The one that allows for the fact that Mama R.'s retarded boy is absolutely the worst trader in the history of the Milky Way. The market will probably look like a "Moon Launch," monday. Oh Well.
Hah--you ain't alone--I spent Friday spinning like a neutron star. I knew I was bad off when I caught myself buying and selling the same issue at the same time. Me my own irate customer, conspiring to keep myself poor & stu...ah well, you know. Well --hang on for the ride--I agree with your calender. That's two of us steady.
If the FED doesn't cut rates Monday this market will tank.
Greenspan managed to kill off the dotcom market just when investment capital was in demand for more product innovation. He was a fool and all thought he was a genius.
Long Term Capital Management collaspe could have taken the market much further down, saved only by the FED jawboning the big WS firms into bailing them out was also the SEC and FED's fault. That fault has not been corrected even today.
The FED and the SEC allowed the WS firms to make 401's into 101's and the brokerage firms could have cared less.
Who gives a damn if you lose buying power through 3-5% inflation or ALL in one day by a"market adjustment.
Me, I'll take 12% growth, the equity average for years and years and 3-5% inflation and be happy with a real rate of return of 7-9%. But the FED likes to wipe out trillions in one day. Entire life savings gone, never to be recovered in a retiree's lifetime.
They won't cut Monday. Bear Stearns customers Rule the Roost, and they want "Higher" rates, not lower ones. I look for them to maybe be forced into it by Sept.
Guys/gals :) if you're not going to try to buy, or sell, a house in the next few months I don't think you'll notice much going on. Unless, that is you're an "Active" stock trader, in which case you may get a chance to make a whole lot of money. Jist don't get "Married" to any "Favorite" stocks. Stay limber, and coldblooded. You MAY get a chance to buy some really cheap stocks in a couple of weeks (months.)
The biggest, most catastrophic, unknown and unknowable is how large a part the sub prime and marginal prime mortgage money has been wound into derivatives, that if are eroded will unwind the market as a whole without a manageable way to cease the hemorrhaging.
I feel like licking the lead paint off Chinese imported toys.
September will be too late. By then Israel will have attacked Syria and Iran before the Syrian/Russian port can be filled with Russian ships bringing in tons and tons of war supplies so Syria can take on Israel. We will aid in handling Iran.
The market will then have too many war/terrorist/bad loans to sustain it.
By September too many things will be too late. Patreas will have reported, the Dems will continue their push for a pull out and Russia is sprinting to fill in the ME voids developing.
Dredging ops in that Syrian port--to ready it for deep draft capital ships--going on as we speak. Can you say "perfect storm"? Well there's always gold. I'm holding two miners, AU, NEM, and FRGOX the metals fund. Even they got bashed last week. wish I knew why--so far I can only figger it's the general flight from risk. I hear Goldman Sachs is running treasury money against the Yen, propping the Dollar, and I guess that the dollar risk is somehow at the root of gold & oil stock sliding when they shouldn't be. shit i dunno. I was smart a week a go but dumber'n a box of rocks at the mo.
Gonna be a lot of little one-on-one workouts going on all over the country --that's what'll save the cycle --keeping the defaults down. Like y'all say, though, there's a lotta property out there that no has yet figured out who the hell owns it. Derivates spread risk, but jeez.
i just know i feel like a big fat overcooked thanksgiving turkey for not having bailed a month back. Internally, I had rejected the bear case on the solid reasoning that it was too depressing to consider.
Thanks, Buddy; you made me laugh. You're right about the thousands of little workouts. If you look at the numbers with a cool and jaundiced eye, the actual Defaults aren't all that low, "Historically Speaking." You'll see "Headlines" like, Defaults up 72%, but that's from a very low 1% ish base. Disclosure: I'm just making up numbers, here, so don't get all hot a nd bothered and say, yada, yady, whatever. Anyway.
Anyway, there was Criminal Wrongdoing type stuff, and the Voodoomeisters were selling stuff collateralized by crap, and telling folks it was AAA, and such, so, NOW, for a couple of weeks you couldn't sell me nothing but a treasury bond, and you really couldn't sell me one of those cause if I can find a dime I'll save it for a month or so, and maybe find me some really underpriced CAT, or DE, or DD, or MON.
Of course, If I was Really a playah I'd be coming in buying GS, and Lehman, and JPMorgan, but I jist aint THAT GOOD.
XLF --the financial spyder--might indeed be a great, great play coming up soon. Better be fast tho --the inhuman black box will leave you standing in the dust--
Rufus, the first lawsuit was filed Friday morning i think --on one of the two BearStearns hedges that liquidated already (giving dumbass me that first BIG signal that credit risk really was ALL underpriced).
Anyhoo it was filed on precisely those grounds --misrepresentation of risk & collateral valuations.
Bear of course has the contract fine print on its side --so it's gonna be way up in the air until the courts call it.
A method and device for valuation of financial derivatives, wherein*a value of a derivative is computed by a determination of an expectation* Input parameters are communicated by an input unit to a computer, such as at least one processor, to establish an integrand as a function of the input parameters. A multivariate integration domain is computed. A sparse grid method is used to determine integration points and integration weights as a function of the input parameters. The integrand is integrated with an integration domain at the integration points to determine integrand values. One or more expectation parameters are computed by combining the integrand values and the integration weights.
Spread risk .. no. It's to increase chance of gain driven by greed with the key words or phrases like "determination of an expectation". Add "a multivariant" and you end up with what Geo. Soros can not explain to a government committee.
I just poured me a Crown, and broke out laughing. At least, I won't have to hear that Goddawful Phrase, "LIQUIDITY SLOSHING AROUND THE WORLD," anymore in my lifetime.
Now, I feel better, already.
LOL --LIQUIDITY SLOSHING AROUND THE WORLD--sooooo true. A phrase we can basically nail to the barn alongside that kangaroo hide. How about "market melt up" on "accelerating earnings growth"?
Ha ha ha ha sob sob sob
The derivatives markets are fine so long as the underlying asset is appreciating. Boy oh boy when a deval sets in, tho, katy bar the door.
You don't have to miscalculate one of the "multivriants" or be too far off on the a value of a derivative is computed by a determination of an expectation before one of two laws takes over. Murphy's or Unintended Consequences.
Puts and Calls i can handle ok conceptually. They're close to the financial instrument they're struck against. But past that, naw, I get lost in a big hurry.
You know, the reason I'm drinking and babbling (well, babbling, anyway) is that I really don't feel like I've got a clue where we're at in all this; and, I don't think a lot of those that's supposed to know, know either.
It just occurred to me that one possible outcome is the Dow goes back to 37 or 40. Talk about your cheap stocks.
Cramer said the broker's earnings could potentially go to half. He said that if so, the stock price will, too, since the multiples are already low. And that's another thing--what did "they" know to keep those friggin multiples so low even when the night was young and we were all dancin up a storm?
so long as the underlying asset is appreciating.
Miscalculate the weighting on just one multivariant and the unravelling begins. Long Term Capitol Management run by two Nobel prize winners couldn't figure out how to shore up the degrading fund.
Right now it would appear that more than a few underlying assets (multivariants) have cease appreciating.
Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) was a hedge fund founded in 1994 by John Meriwether (the former vice-chairman and head of bond trading at Salomon Brothers). On its board of directors were Myron Scholes and Robert C. Merton, who shared the 1997 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics. Initially enormously successful with annualized returns of over 40% in its first years, in 1998 it lost $4.6 billion in less than four months and became the most prominent example of the risk potential in the hedge fund industry. The fund folded in early 2000.
Chicken feed losses by todays markets.
Right now it would appear that more than a few underlying assets (multivariants) have cease appreciating
Chinese will do whatever they do in a most orderly and judicious manner. Exports to USA employs a couple hundred million Chinese workers. They don't want no civil unrest.
They won't do that. If we go down, they go down. They may be Communists, but they're smart damned communists.
Maybe it was because the crooks can always see what the other crooks are doing wrong, and, thus, know they will get caught, eventually. BUT, they always think that THEY, THEMSELVES will get away with it, FOREVER!
this shit is giving capitalism and globalism and free markets a big fat shiner just when we least need it. The soviet mentality will be doing that that dumbass russian whirlygig dance all over our psychological landscape now. And all because the big wall street money runners had to wring the last red cent out of every second of every minute of every day. And why? Why hide risk? Competition--yield--everything that everybody will now forget builds our homes and highways and bridges and ...oops, scratch that 'homes' and 'bridges'. Highways then. oops, no oil to drive down 'em. well, shit.
there were over 35,000 riots in China last year. the money is all on the coast,the farmers are rebelling. they have lots of civil unrest.
now about securitization the corporate funding technique that is widely adopted by financial and industrial companies throughout the world, used to finance both working capital and capital budgets.
importantly, it is also used as a risk management tool and a source of liquidity. Securitization has been adapted to fund corporate acquisitions, capitalize future streams of revenue, and to liquidate pools of nonperforming loans.
securitization works and explains how future cash flows from various asset classes--from credit card receipts and mortgage payments can be packaged into bond-like products and sold to investors. the problem is that credit card debt is awash over the gunnels and sub prime paper is swamped.
it'll make nice recycled paper for the childrens notebooks
It all works just fine until the gatekeepers start Lying about what's behind the door.
They should have locked some bankers up over the Enron mess, but they just couldn't bring themselves to do it.
Guys, I'm going to tell you something; there's a time just prior to combat when you know you're getting ready to get hit, and you're thinking it might be pretty hard. It's too late to be nervous, or scared, or run to the shitter. You put the "Bobby Gentrey" on the portable (we were partial to Tallahassee Bridge) light up one of them little skinny things, crawl up on top of the bunker, and say, "Come on you son of a bitch, but you better make the first one good."
That's kind of how I feel about Monday.
The roomful of hard men demanding a high return "on" their capital has in just a week or two has become a nursury full of babies wailing for Uncle Ben to force a return "of" their capital.
gents, i've sufficiently bummed myself out so i think I'll hit the hay..
Rufus ..Possumtater says hello and hopes all is well with you and yours..Buddy Possumtater says keep your chin up and remember that spare kidney.
You know, we never got hit when we did that. I guess there wasn't no VC around Camp Lejeune. Go Figure.
Habu, I wasn't going to rat you out. First, someone steals my good name, and the next thing you know someone's making Habu-like comments all over the place. But, you had us fooled, Honest.
Have a Good One, Bud. Hell, we'll probably ALL get rich before this is over.
yeh, me too, sleepy and sufficiently bummed out. I knowed it wuz you, anon habu --your writing is too distinctive--YOU CAN"T HIDE!
Good post, rufus, the bunker. I saw on tv this afternoon Ollie North did the Hamburger Hill story, how the Screaming Eagles fought Giap's 29th regiment, the cream of Ho's army, and at tremendous cost took that hill away from 'em. Someday you Vietnam vets will get the credit you deserve --there's stories in that war that are right up there with the finest annals of gallantry since we came to be the USA.
Well, nite all. maybe tomorrow we do the BULL case? you know, profits and shit?
One last thing: Them Screaming Eagles were the Best. And, I wuz in the "Crotch."