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Tuesday, March 27. 2007
Brits take the wrong path - updated
Brits don't want to upset Iran. WTF? Shouldn't it be the other way around? Can't they see that they are being toyed with? Meanwhile, a show of force.
Update: Andrew Sullivan (who we no longer read) proposes the theory that the prisoner-taking is the fault of the US. Gay Patriot hits him hard with sarcasm.
Update: This production via MEMRI, via Iran TV - a quote:
Posted by Bird Dog in Politics at 15:00 | Comments (18) | Trackbacks (0)
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Spot oil just went up a buck and a half, after-hours, on a rumor that an Iranian unit had fired on a US warship. Breaking.
Are they that stupid? Saddam challenged Bush. Didn't work out so well for him. Why are they trying so hard too provoke? An ace in the hole?
Fox crawler is now reporting the rumor--as only a rumor--
Luther, it sure acts like an ace in the hole, doesn't it.
Well Buddy my paranoia has always led me too believe that they have had their ace for quite some time, either via Mr. AQ Khan or their friends the Norks. They're just looking for the right religious cover. They need to come out the 'good' guy, necessary for them to be the leader of their billion followers. Then again my wife thinks I'm crazy, and she hasn't even heard this one.
I dunno, BD--the world markets are betting "just brinkmanship", by & large.
Luther--in your heart you know she's right--
Hmmm. So then I'm not the only one with a wife having this opinion. And here I thought I was somehow unique.
Also something else I can't run to ground, which hopefully is just rumor - Captain Ed of EagleSpeak quoting Pat Dollard says that Iran has now infiltrated its Revolutionary Guard into the Musandam Peninsula in Oman, that is, the southern side of the Strait of Hormuz. If true, that would be quite serious, but nothing from any other source.
Oman is i believe the Royal Navy's main base in the gulf. The straits are the choke point of the choke point, for sure--
Buddy, I know the Brits train there and have been involved in the Omani Navy since its creation - and some of the Omani patrol craft are British - but don't know if the Brits have an actual naval base there. Anyway, if the Iranians are on Musandam, one would think there would be some corroboration.
Nah Skook, re crazy, I think its part of the 'natural' order of things. Probably played out with the first cave guy looking for just the 'right' shaped rock.
As to the Musandam Peninsula, a choke point for sure. Google Earth has the perspective. OTOH, though mountainous, just an especially large Aircraft Carrier. It would score a few quick hits with silkworm derivatives but I think could be easily neutralized, assuming nearby CSF's. But true, another hornet in the nest that needs worry.
I worry more about submarines and mines. If we bring force too bear, anything above the surface has limited utility for Iran. And after some initial losses on our side, anything beneath sea level the same. But it is the political and media losses that would count, on the ground means nothing in this day and age.
They cannot win a conventional tit for tat, without help from our media and democrats. That is their focus for now, as I see it. OTOH, my 'crazy' comment re ace's in the hole. I'm thinking of the "There's something going on" song, though its opposite, and can't remember any of the damn lyrics. But we are in a high stakes game, and I put absolutely nothing beyond them.
And minesweeping has not been the USN's strong point for a long time, even with the helicopter technology. Another worry. Though I think the main channel is about 300 ft. deep, so tough to block with sunken vessels, though I think in places it is much shallower. Iran has three Russian Kilo-class subs, which we should be able to track. An advanced air independent sub like what the Swedes and others have would be a real worry. Still, it is bad enough.
Forgive me if I seem too make light, I do not mean too.
I would prefer to not engage Iran, at this time, at all. But our choices are being narrowed, and are not under our control. This is counted upon of course, by those who oppose real freedom, both internal and external.
The Marxist tropes march on. No matter the end, just the struggle. It makes them feel good you know. Too much brandy, I'll stop now.
Well, brandy aside, I add this bit.
Very few take all this seriously. Just a small inconvenience intruding upon the good life, for most. Am I too serious? Maybe. But we are where we are due too serious people, making serious decisions, upon serious matters. There, am I being serious enough? How many times could I work that word in?
Seriously, I knows of what you speak. I haven't been in a really light-hearted mood since 911.