Maggie's Farm

We are a commune of inquiring, skeptical, politically centrist, capitalist, anglophile, traditionalist New England Yankee humans, humanoids, and animals with many interests beyond and above politics. Each of us has had a high-school education (or GED), but all had ADD so didn't pay attention very well, especially the dogs. Each one of us does "try my best to be just like I am," and none of us enjoys working for others, including for Maggie, from whom we receive neither a nickel nor a dime. Freedom from nags, cranks, government, do-gooders, control-freaks and idiots is all that we ask for.

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Monday, October 5. 2026

Monday afternoon links

On The Criteria For Falsifying A Scientific Hypothesis


What's a Small Munsterlander? 


Vibe Shift: Self-Awareness Triumphs at Columbia - Student paper conquers satire with 'stolen land' sex apology


 My Husband Did Nothing Wrong. The Internet Punished Him Anyway.


 LA taxed housing to get more housing. It got less.


 Supreme Court’s Suncor Case Is ‘Bigger’ Than A ‘Climate’ Policy Dispute


 The good news on federal workers you probably never heard about


 Problem: Labour Is Deeply Unpopular For Importing Unassimilated Muslims. Solution: Import More Unassimilated Muslims


 How To Think Like A New York Progressive


 As French Riots Escalate, 'Wild Horde' Beats Police Commander Unconscious, Stomps His Head


 France Closes 400 Schools, Rioters Planning Major Escalation October 6th and 7th, Next Target London and U.K


 Iran's Revolutionary Guard Sends 26-Page Letter Telling Americans How to Vote in November

Posted by Bird Dog in Hot News & Misc. Short Subjects at 14:14 | Comments (7) | Trackbacks (0)

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QUOTE:
On The Criteria For Falsifying A Scientific Hypothesis... the hypothesis that human-caused global warming was leading to “more and more severe” hurricanes.

Well, the criteria is to start with a clear statement of the hypothesis and the entailments.

The scientific consensus is that the number of hurricanes will probably not increase, but that the strongest hurricanes will become stronger. Also, hurricane frequency varies with ENSO, with lower numbers of hurricanes expected during El Niño events. Furthermore, the hypothesis does not predict a monotonic increase, but that there will be high variability from year to year. Consequently, that means the low number of hurricanes in the current year is not a falsification of the hypothesis. That doesn't make the hypothesis true, it just means the supposed falsification is not a falsification.

See Kossin et al., Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2020; Holland & Bruyère, Recent intense hurricane response to global climate change, Climate Dynamics 2014.
#1 Zachriel on 2026-10-05 16:56 (Reply)
"Well, the criteria is to start with a clear statement of the hypothesis and the entailments"

No. Falsification requires precise, risky predictions, not vague guesses.

"hurricanes will probably not increase" = vague.

"strongest hurricanes will become stronger" = vague. Also, failed this year.

"lower numbers of hurricanes expected during El Niño" = a prediction about El Niño, not AGW.

"there will be high variability from year to year." There already is high variability year to year. Vague.

Here's a precise, risky prediction. On May 21st, NOAA predicted 3-6 Atlantic hurricanes.

It failed.
#1.1 Rusty on 2026-10-05 17:47 (Reply)
Not sure but apparently you shoved the kiddieZ incredibly stupid comment right up his ass.
#1.1.1 Zachinoff on 2026-10-06 17:40 (Reply)
"Vibe Shift: Self-Awareness Triumphs at Columbia - Student paper conquers satire with 'stolen land' sex apology"
This does not jump to the correct internet address.
#2 Ray on 2026-10-05 17:40 (Reply)
See Bullshit and Obfuscation et al 2020 for even more SCIENCE!
#3 eeyore on 2026-10-05 17:42 (Reply)
https://www.thecollegefix.com/columbias-satire-student-paper-apologizes-for-land-acknowledgment-joke/
#4 Marina on 2026-10-05 18:49 (Reply)
" Supreme Court’s Suncor Case"

This is Canada's biggest problem: the Green revolution. (Europe, Australia and New Zealand too). It is why Canada couldn't agree to the very generous deal the U.S. trade negotiators offered. Their green energy restriction prevent them from having large scale industrial industry. And buying tax credits forces them deeper into that hole. This fake science was designed to destroy the West and elevate China and India. The pressure is on to put the U.S. into this disastrous trap too. The Democrats and communists want it and the Republicans are to weak and ineffective to stop it. Trump was/is a temporary speed bump to this and the communist left will pull out all the stops when they take the congress and eventually the presidency.
#5 OneGuy on 2026-10-05 23:31 (Reply)

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