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Thursday, October 1. 2026Thursday morning links“More And More Severe Storms”: When Can We Declare This Hypothesis To Be Definitively Falsified? The Fetterman Factor In The 2026 Election Victor Davis Hanson on the Future of Trump's Counterrevolution UK Minister Claims Pubs, Ale and Fox Hunting Are “Far Right Fantasy” That “Never Really Existed” Motorcycle patrols swarm Iranian cities, checkpoints rise as regime braces for unrest Comments
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London has fallen. Europe is lost. The far left politicians have all somehow mysteriously become rich and the Muslim invasion continues. This cannot end well. Ideally the citizens would rise up and throw their traitorous politicians out of office before it's too late. They won't of course because that would require a clear understanding of what is gong on and of course courage. The second best choice is a quick and decisive civil war where the invaders are forced out of the country and the traitorous leaders are removed by whatever means necessary. Again that won't happen for the same reasons.
So it will be the third option; the invaders will at some point begin to overthrow the government and kill and enslave the citizens. It will still take some time for the naive citizens to understand what is happening and/or to grow a backbone so the outcome simply cannot be predicted. In some ways it will be similar to the Nazi occupation in Europe during WW II; there will be traitors, there will be collaborators, there will be there own government working against them. I would expect that many of the traitorous higher level government leaders will flee to South America or New Zealand or some other safe place. But the majority of Europeans will have to endure WW III in their backyard. It will end the same way it always ends with Europeans: war and genocide.
So the UK minister would rather get into kids, coke, and crossdressing?
More severe storms... tough luck trying to reconcile the Atlantic hurricane season this year. The climate grifting living standard is shrinking day by day. Motorcycle patrols swarm Iranian cities, checkpoints rise as regime braces for unrest
Chavez and Maduro used motorcycle gangs---a.k.a. colectivos or motorizados---to suppress the opposition. Something strange going on. The prime rate is 7% after the Fed (rogues in the fed) kept raising rates to stifle the economy. Inflation is a modest 2.3% yearly except for oil AND the things that the higher prime rate drove up. Crude is $93 - $102 a barrel, presumably because of the Hormuz strait problem and yet more oil is passing through the strait right now than before the Iranian crisis began. And during the Biden administration crude went to $140 but gas prices hovered around $4.20 a gallon but today with much lower crude prices gas is at $4.41.
Trump and other experts are saying these numbers are being artificially manipulated in the runup to the midterm election so as to favor Democrats. Who has that kind of power to control so much or is it multiple actors in behalf of the far left movement? Is this what our future is going to be; whenever a conservative gets in power the left sabotages the economy and the country so they can get elected and whenever the left gets in power we have runaway inflation massive illegal immigration and erosion of or civil rights??? Who runs the monetary systems across the West?
What might they yearn for??? When you answer THOSE questions, you understand what is going on!!! The only thing strange here are your theories and facts. If you think inflation is modest then you must not ever buy anything. Prices are high on almost everything.
You refer to 'Trump and other experts". I don't think Trump is an expert on anything. He has some general knowledge and people he relies on for information, then he makes decisions from a gut feeling. He then moves on to the next item and doesn't look past his shoulder. Very similar to FDR in that regard; continual economic problems all while insisting that he's making constant improvement. You didn't mention Trump's largest, and most devestating, impact on the economy. Tarriffs. They're increasing the cost of everything, as any tax will do. And companies have been absorbing the hit by not raising wages, which is why everybody's budget is being squeezed. I'll keep saying it: We need conservatives to take back the GOP and run on lower taxed and deregulation. Populist liberalism is not the way to defeat the Democrats in the long run. You didn't jack walter: Prices are high on almost everything.
They are, but to be fair to Trump, the inflation rate, while not negligible, is not out of control either. Most of the pricing pressure people feel is still the hangover from the burst of inflation associated with the COVID economic rebound. Indeed, the US economy has shown great resilience under enormous stresses, including military and trade wars. The real problem Trump has had was promising far more than he could possibly deliver, guaranteeing prices would drop and no new wars. Dealings with Iran are causing unexpected problems. But to butcher a phrase, It's the Tariffs, Stupid. If he kills the tariffs our economy will take off.
jack walter: Dealings with Iran are causing unexpected problems.
Hardly unexpected. Trump went for a surprise attack, assassinating the civilian leadership of Iran. When that failed, they had no plan B, even though it was well known (and rather obvious) that Iran could and would bottle up the Strait of Hormuz, impeding the movement of oil and nitrates essential to the global economy. That’s why war, in a republic, should only be engaged in with the support of the people and after consultation with allies who also have a stake in the outcome. jack walter: It's the Tariffs, Stupid. Similarly, trade wars shouldn’t be engaged in without the support of the people, certainly not against long-standing allies. The outcome was hardly unexpected. The US president has too much unilateral power. In a republic, power and decision-making is distributed to those with a stake in the outcome. That doesn’t guarantee decisions will always be wise, but it is the best of all the worst systems. QUOTE: ”More And More Severe Storms”: When Can We Declare This Hypothesis To Be Definitively Falsified? Not by basing it on the lack of hurricanes this year. Generally, global warming does not mean hurricanes will monotonically increase in number each year. Specifically, a strong El Niño predicts a low number of tropical storms in the North Atlantic due to wind shear inhibiting their formation. Falsifying a prediction not made by a hypothesis does not falsify that hypothesis. *Zachtard*: “My prediction about hurricane intensity was not wrong because a meteorologist predicted I would be wrong, therefore science.”
You lie because your father Satan demands it of you. Repent. NOAA estimated the most likely outcome was for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season to be a below-normal season. In any case, the known relationship between El Niño and Atlantic hurricanes goes back to William Gray’s seminal paper, so this isn’t new or ad hoc. .
See Gray, Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part I: El Niño and 30 mb quasi-biennial oscillation influences, 1984. Hey devil child - leave those goalposts alone. The prediction was that storm severity will increase - specifically that Cat 4 and Cat 5 storms would increase by 10%.
Well so far, it looks like globally severe storms are way DOWN for the year, despite an above average year for cyclone energy, and despite another predicted “Hottest year on record”. Despite a superheated Pacific basin filled with supertyphoons. You made a prediction. The prediction failed. Own it. OK, show me where this year is the outlier and not just part of the normal ebb and flow of hurricanes since 1850. Also, please take care to point out where the number of hurricanes started rising and has become the new normal.
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html AlCzervik: OK, show me where this year is the outlier and not just part of the normal ebb and flow of hurricanes since 1850.
Who said it was an outlier? The likely projected outcome for 2026 was "below-normal". By the way, "landfalls" aren't the best measure because landfalls are largely a matter of happenstance. Atlantic hurricanes have increased in frequency since the 1970s, but the evidence for before that is unclear. Nonetheless, intensities appear to be increasing. Just to review: The claim was that the quiet Atlantic hurricane season falsifies the claim of "More And More Severe Storms", but that is like saying the theory that rain forms from the movement of air and water vapor in the Earth's atmosphere is contradicted by it being sunny when there was a 70% chance of rain. A made up or distorted prediction doesn't falsify anything. So (i) they are increasing in intensity, and (ii) fewer of the increased intensity hurricanes (by percentage) make landfall.
Got it. Just to review:
• In May 2026, NOAA predicted 3-6 Atlantic hurricanes. • Zero hurricanes happened. • If you say their prediction failed then you are guilty of "making up or distorting".
#5.3.1.1.1
Rusty
on
2026-10-02 18:03
(Reply)
• An agency that cannot predict 4 months of weather patterns wants to tell you what's going to happen a hundred years from now. And it'll only cost you 100 Trillion dollars to find out if they were right. What a deal.
#5.3.1.1.1.1
Rusty
on
2026-10-02 19:21
(Reply)
AlCzervik: So (i) they are increasing in intensity, and (ii) fewer of the increased intensity hurricanes (by percentage) make landfall.
No. Landfall varies significantly from year to year (from 10%-70%), and largely follows a Poisson distribution adjusted for ENSO (landfalls are less likely in El Niño years), NAO, and SST. That means the graph you provided superimposed a large random fluctuation. While scientists projected a lower than normal hurricane season for this year, that was only with 70% probability. Sorry, the world isn’t black and white. re UK Minister Claims Pubs, Ale and Fox Hunting Are “Far Right Fantasy” That “Never Really Existed”
The Orwellian rewrite of history conitinues apace, eh? |
Tracked: Oct 04, 09:11