Maggie's Farm

It's an odd claim. First, Feb. 28 is late summer when the large majority of the fertilizing has already been done. With whatever inventories South Africa had on hand plus whatever was in transit it is doubtful the closing of the Strait of Hormuz has created any problem at all for southern hemisphere agriculture.

Nitrogen fertilizer, the only fertilizer exported in any significant amount by Gulf countries, is the fertilizer with the most excess global production capacity, and that both Saudia Arabia and Oman have work arounds available to the closing of the straits.

According to BL statistics Nitrogen fertilizer is up 9% MOM from Feb. '26 April '26. Annual peek is typically April or May. Still under 75% of the peek from the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. How did SA ag. fare on that occasion? Notable that Russia was a major nitrogen fertilizer exporter and that Europeans used Russian NG imports for fertilizer manufacturing, but the global market recovered very quickly from what was a much larger shock. Furthermore, Russia was also a major exported of other fertilizers at that point.

BTW, your economic illiteracy is showing. Your characterization of the impact of supply and demand is a gross oversimplification. Beyond that, my point is that the impacts you're mentioning are projected impacts, not actual ones. Which may or may not turn out to be accurate. I also love how you just ignore that point that there is excess capacity now. US nitrogen fertilizer plants can increase production quickly. Other than that, really solid points.

Another odd claim. There is no claim in the article that the whole of any European country was a no-go zone, or that any would become such overnight. But it would seem difficult to deny that the problem is much worse now than it was 10 years ago. And that it was worse 10 years ago than it was 20 years ago. And worse 20 years ago than it was 30 years ago. Which would seem to indicate a trend.

Oh. Well there you go. That bit of barely relevant data settles it and proves your point. Never mind the accounts of Europeans about how unsafe they feel in certain areas, or how common assaults and property crime are or how much sexual assault and rape have increased in some places in Europe over the last 30 years.

If only it had occurred to me to make a longitudinal comparison of murder rates in Europe, I might not have made accurate, relevant points about the issue.

It is impossible to have reasonable conversations with leftists because they constantly resort to nonsensical positions like you did. It would be nice, and beneficial to, but leftist will never acknowledge a point no matter how obvious it is.