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Friday, April 4. 2025Friday morning links In Defense of 'Luxury Beliefs' - Historically, many ideas that once seemed to be elite fixations eventually became mainstream. Garrison Keillor’s New York The NGO Complex Is Irredeemably Corrupt Trump Starts Undoing JFK’s Worst Mistake UK: Rich should fly less so others can go on holiday, says climate chief.Emma Pinchbeck said tougher penalties on frequent flyers would allow poorer passengers to take at least one trip a year Nanny State: NYC Will Start Digging Through Residents' Trash Today Forced Treatment of the Seriously Mental Ill Isn’t Racist - A New York city council report wrongly implies that involuntary transport rates are evidence of discrimination. Did '60 Minutes' Put Out Their Worst Segment With Lesley Stahl Providing Cover for Hamas? Vance Reminds People the Economy Won’t Get Fixed Overnight Toomey on Trump’s tariffs 'Liberation Day' Tariffs Will Liberate People—From Their Income. Lower-income Just pick up the phone. Call the President, and make a deal. Just some advice from a friend of the global economy. EU Promises Tariff Retaliation Or Something How Trump Is Decimating the Left’s Patronage Networks 'Disloyal' NSC Staffers Fired After Laura Loomer Brings Receipts To The White House Democratic Delusions Aren’t Going Away Anytime Soon Big Balls to the rescue: DOGE saves a terabyte of data destroyed by USIP employees 'Free Le Pen!': Vance, Trump, Musk rally behind France's far-right leader Trackbacks
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Zelensky with EU support... Trump can institute Article 13 of the Nato Treaty and begin by pulling US troops out of Germany, Britian, and Italy. WWII and the Cold War ended long ago. Put those troops on OUR borders.
NGO complex... Their main job is to launder government grant money through enough other NGO's until it becomes untraceable and thus unaccountable to the taxpayer. It also keeps numerous former political staffers employed and well compensated. A political grifters dream job. Re: Toomey on Trump’s tariffs
I don't claim to have any insight into the longer term effects of Trump's tariffs. I would note that Toomey and the next speaker supported what I, and many conservatives and libertarians believed from the '80s on. We had good reason. We read about Smoot-Hawley. And we remember that our auto industry had become complacent and uncompetitive because they essentially had a captive market till the Japanese cars started to take over. Then one day we turned around and noticed that we make almost nothing in our country. We are not in control of the equipment for key parts of our infrastructure, our drug manufacturing, our computer components, etc. We can no longer manufacture our defense equipment completely in and sourced in the US. Many of our "allies" and adversaries have much higher tariffs and barriers to trade than we have for them. And while this is happening, once thriving factory towns are dying, our middle class is being hollowed out and we are in hock up to our eyeballs. Is Trump starting a global depression like Smoot-Hawley helped usher in? I don't know. I recognize the possibility. So far, there are several companies and countries that are reacting just as Trump expected and to our benefit. I would prefer that the whole world have completely free (and fair) trade but there are realities like different economic and social features in countries that make that a lot more difficult than it might seem. As I grow older, I am less ideological and hopefully more pragmatic. Ideologies are great foundations for points of view but we should realize there are always edge conditions that aren't adequately addressed by them. QUOTE: Just pick up the phone. Call the President, and make a deal. . . . My advice to foreign leaders is that if you have not already reached out to President @realDonaldTrump, you need to do so immediately. Trump is, at his core, a dealmaker who sees the world as a series of transactions. Trump sees the world as bullying people into being subservient. That may be effective in the short run, but in the long run, engenders resentment and economic instability. More specifically, you can't claim tariffs are a negotiating tactic while also claiming them as a way to balance the budget and encourage domestic production. Those are inconsistent goals. No one will invest in new factories in response to tariffs that may or may not be permanent. Nor can you balance a budget on tariffs that may or may not be permanent. Furthermore, the United States already has trade deals featuring low tariffs with most major trading partners, including in North America and Europe. Trump is reneging on the Canada–United States Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA), even though he himself signed it and he who had bullied other countries into agreeing to it. He also rejected joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which would have lowered tariffs with America's Pacific trading partners. Other countries went ahead with the deal, forming the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPSEP), leaving America more isolated and less necessary. America will continue to bluster, but the world will move on without them. Z: Other countries went ahead with the deal, forming the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPSEP)
Sorry, that should be the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Also, see the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which, with 30% of global GDP, is the largest trading bloc in history. America will continue to bluster, but the world will move on without them.
Oh good god. A stupider claim was never made. The rest of the world can't move on without the USA. The US has the whip hand in every single trade relationship it has. Less than 20% of our GDP is related to trade. Most of our exports are in ag. and energy, which are global markets with inelastic demand. Additionally, we are the only large consumption-based economy left in the world. And we have one of the lowest median ages of any of the worlding developed and many developing countries. Using that whip hand to further American interests rather than subsuming American interests to those of other countries is not being a bully. If you're the president of the USA, it is simply doing the job you're supposed to be doing. There are a few obvious purposes to the tariffs. One is to lower interest rates by driving money out of the stock market into treasuries. Ten-year yields are going down. Given that recent projections have over 17% of federal spending being debt service, that's a big deal. They are also designed to prevent China from circumventing tariffs against them. Which is a good thing. The third obvious reason is to motivate corporations to build plants in the USA. It wasn't long ago that progs. bragged about wanting to help the working class improve their stake in life. Trump is attempting to do that. Now progs. like you are complaining about the stock market going down when the rapid stock market growth has been the driver of the high gini coefficients of the last 30 years. Pick a position and stick with it. James: The US has the whip hand in every single trade relationship it has.
While there can be legitimate purposes for tariffs, over the long run, free trade leads to greater overall prosperity. That's because larger markets, larger labor pools, and economies of scale, favor increasing specialization across and between nations. While the U.S. economy is very large, it represents a decreasing share of GDP over time. The largest single trading bloc is now the RCEP with $30 trillion in GDP, and the RCEP includes highly developed countries, including South Korea and Japan. As China continues to emerge, domestic consumption is becoming a larger share of GDP, now about 40%. The U.S. still has a tradition of entrepreneurship, a highly-educated and motivated workforce, and the rule of law holds, even if under oligarchic stress. However, walling itself off with tariffs, isolating itself with its chaotic foreign policy (such as suggesting military force against Danish territory), and unreliable towards its agreements (such as reneging on CUSFTA) is not good for business or for global stability. See Adams, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, W. Strahan and T. Cadell 1776.
See also Ricardo, The Principles of Political Economy and Taxation, Murray 1817. Ricardo showed that trade can be advantageous even if a country has an absolute advantage in production, a principle called comparative advantage. Even if the U.S. can make pencils better than anyone else ("We're #1!"), the U.S. might be better served by buying pencils from Brazil while the U.S. concentrates its efforts on AI.
#2.1.2.1.1
Zachriel
on
2025-04-05 15:44
(Reply)
mudbug: We are not in control of the equipment for key parts of our infrastructure, our drug manufacturing, our computer components, etc. We can no longer manufacture our defense equipment completely in and sourced in the US.
Which helps explain why nations sometimes use tariffs or subsidies to protect domestic industries, especially with regards to agriculture and military-related production. mudbug: Many of our "allies" and adversaries have much higher tariffs and barriers to trade than we have for them. Most developed nations have relatively low tariffs. The weighted average of tariffs for the EU are about 2%. mudbug: And while this is happening, once thriving factory towns are dying, our middle class is being hollowed out and we are in hock up to our eyeballs. Some of that is inevitable, such as much more productive and higher quality Japanese automobiles replacing much of American models. Also, low-technology production, such in Japan after WWII, then China, now elsewhere, replacing low-technology production in the United States. The fact is that almost any country can produce conventional automobiles. If the United States is to survive and even prosper, it needs to produce the next generation of automobiles. And the competition never ends. Of course, isolating the United States from international trade, breaking agreements, and cutting investment in science will only make the problem worse. We are moving from a service economy, primarily financialization, back to a manufacturing economy. The financialization economy is great for Wall street and bankers; see mortgage derivatives, bailouts, importing labor and goods, and open borders. A Main street manufacturing economy best supports the middle class with more jobs, secure borders, and the benefit of necessities AND national defense products being created within OUR borders. So trade-in your international studies, gay studies, black studies, and women studies degrees for an actual functional skill.
Disagreeing with someone more powerful: The optimal situation is to be able to tell them that you will give them your candid opinion, but once they have made a decision you will support it and not undermine it. A year later, or even two, they will have seen you be a pain in the discussion phase but the only one not complaining after the choice is made. You have to endure the first part to get the second.
Unfortunately, this system relies on the other person being more than 50% reasonable. Without that, you may have to go into exile. IDK. Seems like just making a concise, compelling, well-reasoned argument in a calm, non-confrontational manner should be enough.
Of course "should be" and "is" are not the same. re How to Disagree with Someone More Powerful than You
If it is a cop, or a mugger, or just some thugs who want to beat the snot out of you for the entertainment value, I don't think there is much you can do other than tacitly disagree with them. If it is more like a corporate setting, one could say yes I agree with you on a certain part of the plan, what do you think of implementing it like this It's important to try to say on the same side as the person in power without exposing him as the dimwitted dunderhead that he is to the rest of the group. Egos matter and nobody likes being told they are wrong, or being humiliated in public. Stay tactful. Be introspective. It could be YOU that is the one who is wrong. Nothing is worse than a subordinate pushing an idiotic plan. No one has any idea what's going to happen with the tariffs and anyone who says they do is a liar.
Now that said, betting against the long shot Trump is a fools bet. So beware, not that anyone in today's 5 second world is ever held to task for anything they say. Give the 'far right' crap a damn rest. When was the last time you heard anyone in the media us the term 'far left' FFS?
Google search results for "far left"
Washington Post: 5,750 results Fox News: 14,500 results |