Maggie's Farm

If it weren't for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, Milankovitch cycles indicate that the Earth would be cooling slightly, rather than rapidly warming as is currently occurring.

jack walter: The world isn't ending.

That's right. Humans are highly adaptable, and they are more than capable of responding to the challenge of global warming. However, part of modern humanity's adaptability is from their scientific prowess, giving them the ability to project possible futures, and avoid or mitigate unfavorable outcomes. The longer it takes to effectively respond to the problem of anthropogenic global warming, the greater the economic cost, the higher the social tensions due to migration, and the broader the degradation of humanity's shared ecological inheritance.

B. Hammer: 1 degree celsius is at hand!

Adaptation to a warming of 1°C would be relatively uncomplicated, but warming much beyond that will have much greater social, economic, and ecological effects. Warming will probably be in the range of about 3°C, keeping in mind that 3°C is about half the difference between today and an ice age, so it is not insignificant.

easy: The forces that cause ice ages are well beyond our capacity to change.

Greenhouse gases are essential to Earth's climate system. Without greenhouse gases, Earth's surface temperature would be a chilly -18°C rather than the balmy +15°C that it is. A change in the greenhouse effect of just 10% (such as by doubling the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide) would increase Earth's surface temperature by about +3°C.

ruralcounsel: Coe, Fabinski, and Wiegleb
International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences

Just curious. Are you offering this article because you think it is authoritative, or because you found the details of the study convincing (or simply because it affirmed your position)?

First, the article conflates immigrants with illegal immigrants, when many immigrants have legal residence, such as under asylum laws. Furthermore, the article confuses past spending with projected spending over the next decade. But most importantly, the article leaves out that the report also found that taxes paid by immigrants will amount to $788 billion, for a net gain to the treasury of $611 billion. In addition to these direct benefits to the treasury, the report also found net indirect benefits to the treasury from economic activity of $285 billion.

As for immigrants without legal status, they are already largely excluded from federal benefits, though children will still be eligible for educational benefits regardless of status under Plyler v. Doe.

feeblemind: Now we can predict the weather 11,000 years out.

It's not a weather prediction, but a prediction about Earth's mean surface temperature. It's similar to how we can determine that the Earth's mean surface temperature was cooler 11,000 years ago than it is today, but not knowing what the weather was like on a particular day. Or even simpler, how we can predict that the average temperature in Paris will be warmer in summer than winter, without knowing what day in July to plan a picnic.

feeblemind: Why not?

Because anthropogenic emissions into the atmosphere are creating a deleterious increase in the Earth's mean surface temperature with a significant impact over the next several decades.

DeGaulle: You seem to claim that you know everything about everything.

Hardly. However, we do know that weather, climate, and Earth’s mean surface temperature are different phenomena.