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Friday, July 19. 2024

Friday morning links

Great Moments in Maine Real Estate


The Ammo Grrrll meets retirement


What Would It Take To Recreate Bell Labs?


 DEI in Academia


 Abigail Shrier: California’s New Law Lets Schools Keep Secrets from Parents. Gavin Newsom signs a bill that keeps parents in the dark if their kids change gender identity at school.


 They're Beating Up on Opie for Creating a 'Monster'


Carnegie Mellon University prof says Trump assassination attempt was 'staged' like 'stupid Tubi movie set'


 Ear Trutherism Is Being Mainstreamed By AP, PBS, and Now WaPo's Jen Rubin


 Soft-Spoken Trump Appeals for Unity, Gives Personal Account of Shooting in Lengthy Convention Address


 The Next Four Months Will Be A Political War Without Limits


Xi Jinping and China: Running Out of Time, Ready to Strike

Posted by Bird Dog in Hot News & Misc. Short Subjects at 06:28 | Comments (34) | Trackbacks (0)

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Re China running out of time:

Gordon Chang is an obsessive, lunatic China hater, and everything he writes about China is wrong. Time is still on China's side. The current Taiwan President, Lai Ching-tel got only 40% of the popular vote, and his separatist/independence party lost its majority.

The US might still be able to instigate a declaration of independence or do something else to cause China's intervention and occupation of Taiwan, but left alone China will simply wait out the separatists.

If it should come to war, the US Navy would be crushed, and the US would be reduced to a regional power.
#1 bob sykes on 2024-07-19 08:56 (Reply)
If it should come to war, the US Navy would be crushed, and the US would be reduced to a regional power.

Then what is he waiting for?

Strike now and crush the hated Americans and bask in the enhanced prestige and power at home.

OTOH, if Xi attacks and loses, he will be deposed and never heard from again. Does he really have the nerve to roll the dice?
#1.1 feeblemind on 2024-07-19 09:09 (Reply)
China expels ousted defense chiefs in corruption crackdown

QUOTE:
Earlier this month, Xi said there were “deep-seated problems” in the Chinese military’s politics, ideology, work style and discipline,

So were they really dismissed for corruption or were they against war with Taiwan and the USA?

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-expels-defense-ministers-communist-party-corruption-military-rcna159204
#1.1.1 feeblemind on 2024-07-19 22:18 (Reply)
Yes, I'm sure Xi is only spending all those billions building up his war machine because he likes military parades. I'm sure you're right and he means no harm.

Xi is getting old and wants to finish some things before he leaves his legacy to history. Taiwan for sure and a lot of the islands around the Philippines. He wants China to dominate the world and most assuredly most of the Pacific. Australia is in his sights, not for an immediate invasion but for a slow and relentless insertion of his military and industrial people and power. I give Australia maybe 10 years before they are in the same position that Tiawan finds itself in today. The Philippines too.
#1.2 OneGuy on 2024-07-19 10:31 (Reply)
Xi has an army that has never won a war and not fought a major conflict since the failed invasion of Vietnam in 1979. His navy is new and shiny but completely untested. I have trouble believing that that military, which has never conducted a major amphibious operation, is going to start by conducting one more complex than Normandy and the Marianas combined. And even if they try, Taiwan (or us although I doubt we'd to it) can send China back to the 19th century by punching a hole in the Three Gorges Dam. Why the Chinese created a county threatening vulnerability is beyond me. I'm in they'll wait Taiwan out along with continuing subversion.
#1.2.1 John Fisher on 2024-07-19 15:43 (Reply)
Except they have a timeline. Xi doesn't want to wait. And if waiting was their game why the aggressive overflights, buildup and their aggression in the S China Sea? It's coming.

As for China's military vs Tiawan, U.S. and Japan. Don't under estimate China. AND don't forget the huge strategic position they are in with all of this being in their backyard. If this goes down Our reinforcements are 7000 miles away but China's entire military will be 20 miles away. If they decide to do this everything in or near Taiwan strait is a target that China can shoot at endlessly. They can take out any ship, any plane, any target. Probably the only American asset that can survive this battle will be a couple of subs.

Will it happen? I don't know, but you cannot ignore the reality on the ground. My gut tells me "something" is going to happen.
#1.2.1.1 OneGuy on 2024-07-19 16:23 (Reply)
My assessment of the reality on the ground is that China is trying to get as much as they can by intimidation. And it may work. But an invasion of Taiwan risks China being ended as a modern country. China is an opaque place to the West. Even if Xi wants to he may be restrained if others believe he courts disaster.
#1.2.1.1.1 John Fisher on 2024-07-19 16:52 (Reply)
What you describe is “how it should be”, or how you hope it will be. Let me tell you what I believe will happen: The USN will have a carrier fleet and they will move far closer than 300 miles of shore. They will do this because of over confidence and efficiency. They want their air power closer. The rest of the fleet will be right there too as they should be. China will anticipate this and they will use hypersonic missiles to take out the carrier. They will fight a battle of attrition as best they can against the carriers aircraft. It will be more or less a draw with them managing to take some out but at a high cost in their own aircraft. But in the end it won’t matter because the carrier will either be sunk or disabled and unable to land any aircraft. Each of the support ships will fight the good fight but will be overwhelmed by China’s great forces and strategic position. Depending on what, exactly was deployed there will be 1 or 2 or 3 nuclear armed subs on station which will likely be unharmed. All of this will happen within 12-24 hours so no chance of meaningful reinforcement. At the same time a brutal bombing shelling attack on Taiwan will effectively destroy it. China doesn’t “want” Taiwan they merely want to control it so destroying it and killing everyone is just fine with them. The entire fleet will be destroyed at a huge cost to China but a done deal anyway. This will leave the U.S. with one choice and that is to use the nukes on the subs. Ordinarily it wouldn’t have gone this far but Biden and an incompetent Pentagon is in charge. But the defeat will be so big and so impossible to whitewash that the decision will be made to nuke the Chinese mainland. At this point we willl have “won”. That is we killed more of them, sunk more of their ships, downed more of their planes, etc. But Taiwan will be decimated and one, maybe two, carrier fleets will be gone along with the 15,000 or so U.S. seaman. And worse, a nuclear war will have been precipitated.

The end!? Not on your life. China has “invaded” us and we do not know what they have brought into this country. They will destroy critical infrastructure and kill our people right here in our homeland and make us vulnerable to Russia and the Muslim hoards. This will get worse, if that is even possible.

Will it happen exactly that way? No one can know, but that is exactly what is possible and exactly what China is preparing for. If we stick our neck into that trap China will cut off our heads. We will then be dramatically weakened while simultaneously the world is pulled into a nuclear war. There is no winning that.
#1.2.1.1.1.1 OneGuy on 2024-07-19 22:55 (Reply)
Tell me you know nothing about modern warfare without telling me you know nothing about modern warfare. Read my reply to Bob Sykes.
#1.2.2 James4HJ on 2024-07-19 17:18 (Reply)
Hum. China has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world's history. And has had such for decades. Which means it is the most rapidly aging country in the world's history. And has the. world's most rapidly declining population. It is dying demographically and in serious economic decline. Which may explain Xi's sense of urgency.

As for China "crushing the US navy." 1. None of China's military has any combat experience at all. Not even any institutional legacy. Their last combat was in the 1970s against the Vietnamese in a mass force infantry operation in which they were mauled severely in short order and tucked tail and ran. 2. Their equipment, regardless of its advertised capabilities, is very poorly manufactured, unreliable, and typically far less capable than claimed. Estimates of how much of the defense budget is lost to graft are above 50% by Chinese sources. 3. A society with very low fertility in which 90%+ of the young adult males are from one child families and are a large portion of their parents' "pension" is likely to be very intolerant of the high causality rate intrinsic to invading an island.

The USN would not deploy near the mainland with the exception of submarines to the north and south. A few carrier groups would be 2-3 hundred miles west of Twain with dozens of destroyers and cruisers for missile defense. The remainder of the escort ships, along with the large AA ships would blockade China in the straights of Melica and/or the Indian Ocean. China would be completely impotent to address such blockades. The result would literally be that China had no fuel for their ships, airplanes, and vehicles within a couple of months. Their population would be starving within six months.

Other than that, solid points.
#1.3 James4HJ on 2024-07-19 17:13 (Reply)
Institutional Legacy…does the USN’s legacy include accidentally burning down an LHD while in port?

No legacy may be better than a sad legacy. And never bet on the transgender athlete.
#1.3.1 foxmarks on 2024-07-19 17:21 (Reply)
Exact same thing has happened to multiple Chinese navy ships/boats. Including one of their large LDHs and more troubling, a nuclear submarine. Their carriers take 48 to 72 hours to get underway from a cold start.

"Legacy" in this context is instruction/knowledge gained through generations of combat and complex exercises. The USNs legacy is the best institutionalized of all the world's navies and is far more extensive than anyone else's outside the British. So not sad at all.

I'll add that I find it appalling how eager so many people who call themselves RW are to adopt rhetoric with regards to the moral status of the USA and the west that is often a clear echo of LW rhetoric from10-30 years ago which those same RWers would have properly condemned the left for even a few years ago. Those tropes are as intellectually and morally vapid now coming from the likes of Tucker Carlson as they were coming from the LW.
#1.3.1.1 James4HJ on 2024-07-20 14:33 (Reply)
How does Japan fit into your scenario?
#1.4 Louie Miller on 2024-07-22 10:17 (Reply)
...a game called Pickleball, which, when I heard about it, I assumed I was being pranked, ...

Ammo Grrrll knocks it out of the park, as usual.

[retirement is] like a second childhood, only with a LOT more money and FAR less supervision! Woohoo! However, bedtime is still roughly the same.

Amen, sister.
#2 Mike Anderson (Link) on 2024-07-19 09:53 (Reply)
She has the proper attitude for retirement... I don't feel like it and the bedtime routine that we don't fight any longer.
The Opie piece was great too. Hollywood is falling apart between DEI and AI.
#2.1 indyjonesouthere on 2024-07-19 12:30 (Reply)
Heh. My bedtime's now between 2 and 4 AM, sleeping well until 10 or so. For decades I had to skew my sleep cycle to fit the 'real world'. Now I can be the night owl I always was...
#2.2 JLawson (Link) on 2024-07-19 14:40 (Reply)
Ammo Grill does her best in the very last paragraph. Here she refers to the cowardice of the "everyman", especaially those with any connection to any school.
#3 faculty wife on 2024-07-19 10:03 (Reply)
English and Irish cities are burning. Citizens are uprising and being targeted by their own left wing governments. "Newcomers" are committing rapes and assaults and demanding more free stuff. One group of "newcomers" was driven to their taxpayer paid housing with their new taxpayer paid clothes and phones and refused to accept the free accommodations because it wasn't close enough to downtown Dublin. They assaulted the driver and damaged the taxpayer purchased van that transported them to the free housing. Politicians left clueless why citizens are angry and are planning new taxes in hopes it quells the anger.
#4 OneGuy on 2024-07-19 10:58 (Reply)
Hum... Crowdstrike... where have I heard that name before?

https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2024/07/19/global-it-outages-linked-to-microsoft-crowdstrike-cause-widespread-disruption/
#5 Zachinoff on 2024-07-19 11:34 (Reply)
Yea, didn't know that Microsoft owned the company. The ruling elite and their political allies making a practice run for election day activities? And 51 IC employees all in denial once again.
#5.1 indyjonesouthere on 2024-07-19 12:22 (Reply)
Uh ... remember RussiaGate?
QUOTE:
But CrowdStrike is perhaps best known for investigating the Russian hack of Democratic National Committee computers during the 2016 US election. It has been at the center of false conspiracy theories since 2016, most notably after a White House transcript revealed former President Donald Trump mentioned Crowdstrike in his July 2016 call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that led to his first impeachment.


https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/19/tech/crowdstrike-update-global-outage-explainer/index.html
#5.1.1 Zachinoff on 2024-07-19 12:56 (Reply)
The comments on the Breitbart piece tie the Russia, Russia, Russia and the 'outage' Microsoft CrowdStrike as one and the same.
Antitrust would do wonders to prune the size and scope of large corporations, especially in tech and banking.
#5.1.1.1 indyjonesouthere on 2024-07-19 13:09 (Reply)
And for something new....

Fred Reed at Taki's Magazine. July 19,2024
Oh help. As I write, the mumbling egg plant in the White House shoves money and arms into two wars, neither necessary, and he and Lockheed Martin prepare for a third, also unnecessary, over Taiwan, which is none of their business.
#6 indyjonesouthere on 2024-07-19 13:21 (Reply)
BlueAnon Rears Its Head: One-Third of Dems Believe Conspiracy Theory That Trump Staged Assassination Attempt

https://freebeacon.com/democrats/blueanon-rears-its-head/
#7 feeblemind on 2024-07-19 13:22 (Reply)
Ear Trutherism Is Being Mainstreamed By AP, PBS, and Now WaPo's Jen Rubin

And this nonsense coming from the morons who wore masks for the last three years, even when they were outside or in their cars alone.
#8 ruralcounsel on 2024-07-19 13:55 (Reply)
Remember the THREE REASONS FOR WEARING A MASK WHILE DRIVING ALONE:

(1) You just stole the car and haven't had time to disinfect,

(2) That body/day-old bag of seafood in the trunk is getting stinky, or

(3) You don't want people thinking you're a Republican.
#8.1 Mike Anderson (Link) on 2024-07-19 14:13 (Reply)
re What Would It Take To Recreate Bell Labs?

An excellent read. Thanks for posting. I would have missed it.
#9 feeblemind on 2024-07-19 14:43 (Reply)
Apropos nothing...

Is there an update on Bulldog?
#10 mudbug on 2024-07-19 15:31 (Reply)
As it turned out, the best thing that happened to me in my career was not getting a job at Bell Labs. It was my ambition in college and I oriented my classes and pushed my grades to be able to get in the door. When Bell interviewed on my campus in the fall of 1974, the interviewer told me at the end of my interview that if he could, he'd hire me, but they were only interviewing on campus to hold their slot at my school for the future. Bell Labs came apart as part of the antitrust effort against the Bell system several years later. I went on to have a successful career (that I still can't talk about) at a defense contractor.
#11 John Fisher on 2024-07-19 15:48 (Reply)
Right now negotiations are going on between the Biden family and the hostage DNC. The DNC is offering Dr. Biden a professorship at a prestigious college. Offering Hunter pardons and hiding/losing the laptop. Offering Joe a book deal worth $60 million in advance. All to agree to declaring himself out of the race for president.

Kamala is being offered all of the above to also decline to run in Biden's place.

Newsome is being cleaned up to accept the position and they are searching for a gay or trans women of color to be his VP running mate.

No! This is not from the Onion it is what is actually happening right now behind the scenes.
#12 OneGuy on 2024-07-19 15:53 (Reply)
I don't think Newsom is planning on being in the national spotlight in 2024. He just signed this - https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/california-plants-new-flag-on-transgender-student-protections/ar-BB1qgoVQ

A similar thing (the Democratic candidate for governor saying 'parents don't have any say in their children's education') cost the Democrats all the statewide offices here in VA in 2021.
#12.1 John Fisher on 2024-07-19 16:49 (Reply)
One guy where do you get this recent news? Thank you in advance.
#12.2 RL on 2024-07-19 18:34 (Reply)
Oh-oh! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YUoBcp1me0&t=34s Second shooter theory. Not the grassy knoll but the water tower.
#13 Anon on 2024-07-19 16:12 (Reply)
BOOM! There it is! Biden dropped out of the race!!! This is my surprise face. LOL!
#14 OneGuy on 2024-07-21 15:03 (Reply)

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