Monday morning links

Since the ROI on buying GSA cookies has been declining over the years (price increases, fewer cookies in same package) this is just the information I needed to no longer buy GSA cookies.

In fact, just avoid anything to do with BSA or GSA. Let them know they are no longer welcome.

Scouting (Boys or Girls) has become a dumpster fire of wokeness. I would recommend that parents avoid it. I'm glad my kids are past the age where they would join.

#1 ruralcounsel on 2023-11-20 09:22 (Reply)

As for Western women joining Islam, it will serve most of them right.
First, their attention span is so short that in a week or two, they'll find another fad or tik-tok trend to follow.
Second, they're likely to not enjoy the extreme level of subservience required.
Third, the ones that stick with it deserve the type of men they are going to get. Good to purge them from the West; that's a win for us.

#2 ruralcounsel on 2023-11-20 09:28 (Reply)

No different than the women who are attracted to thugs and criminals.

#2.1 Ben David on 2023-11-20 09:52 (Reply)

Deport all non-citizens showing up at these protests wearing a Keffiyeh or waving a pro-terrorism flag. We should have never allowed them to enter the country. These protests are organized and funded by pro-terrorism groups and billionaires who are trying to destroy the West. It is stupid for the West to allow it.

#3 OneGuy on 2023-11-20 09:29 (Reply)

I would not believe anything being pushed by Salon.

Though I'm sure that the "International Cryosphere Climate Initiative" and someone who is "director of the University of Massachusetts Amherst School of Earth & Sustainability " are being quoted accurately, any journalist that doesn't question the motives and funding of such entities and compare their prognostications and predictions with what they've done in the past isn't reporting, they are acting as a press release PR firm.

The glossy report reads like fear-mongering psuedo-science. People who have established their careers and paychecks on mostly fiction and crappy computer models.

Sea level rise has been shown to be virtually nonexistent, except for where the land is rising or sinking (usually due to rebound from glaciers in the past).

#4 ruralcounsel on 2023-11-20 09:38 (Reply)

ruralcounsel: Sea level rise has been shown to be virtually nonexistent

That is incorrect. Multiple lines of evidence confirm sea level rise. Indeed, modern satellite altimetry shows that sea level rise is accelerating at 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y² consistent with projections. See Nerem et al., Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era, PNAS 2018.

Much of the current sea level rise is due to thermal expansion of the oceans (warming confirmed by Argo), but an increasing amount is due to ice melt.

#4.1 Zachriel on 2023-11-20 10:08 (Reply)

Z, thanks for the numbers! It's always good to be able to quantify thing rather than try to wade through someone else's interpretation.

Give that rate of accelerated sea level rise, a quick calculation, using the lower and upper limits of the estimate, says that in 25 years, the average sea level rise should be somewhere between 18 and 34 millimeters. Man the lifeboats! Run for higher ground!

#4.1.1 Mike Anderson (Link) on 2023-11-20 11:10 (Reply)

Too bad that Obama, that dope, bought TWO mansions at sea level, one in Hawaii and one in Martha's Vineyard.

#4.1.1.1 Sixtyville on 2023-11-20 11:41 (Reply)

Mike Anderson: Give that rate of accelerated sea level rise, a quick calculation, using the lower and upper limits of the estimate, says that in 25 years, the average sea level rise should be somewhere between 18 and 34 millimeters.

Even without acceleration, the rate of observed sea level rise is currently about 3 mm/y, so that would be 75 mm in 25 years from now. The change would be "65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change".

#4.1.2 Zachriel on 2023-11-20 13:00 (Reply)

Something tells me that satellite altimetry didn't exist long ago, so there is virtually no history to compare it to for accuracy in measuring acceleration of this small magnitude..

The Nerem reference you cite was based on sea-state models and a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment global model which increased their predicted rate by 0.25mm/year. So their results are really model-based as much as they are measurement based.

In other words, lots of handwaving and adjustable parameters. Note that they chose to NOT apply some corrections because they "degraded comparisons to tide-gauge sea-level measurements. And as they state in their "Acceleration Validation" section, they performed "rough" validation, because "thermosteric contribution to sea-level acceleration is hampered by large discrepancies and related uncertainties that exist in ocean heat content datasets." They use terms like "broadly consistent" when comparing to other references. That doesn't sound like they are particularly confident in the accuracy of their predictions, other than they show similar trends. So lots of assumptions and modeling built in to their results.

The problem with people who think they understand science because they can read an abstract. Given the amount of research grant money that flows to the National Academy of Sciences, I doubt they would want to draw much attention to anything that contradicted the current Administration's foolish fixation on climate change. Note that the work was all funded by NASA. The NASA that has a primary goal to "reach out to the Muslim world."

#4.1.3 ruralcounsel on 2023-11-20 14:10 (Reply)

ruralcounsel: Something tells me that satellite altimetry didn't exist long ago, so there is virtually no history to compare it to for accuracy in measuring acceleration of this small magnitude..

Um, it's in the title: "Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era". The acceleration is detected in the last 25 years of satellite observations starting with the TOPEX/Poseidon mission.

ruralcounsel: So their results are really model-based as much as they are measurement based.

All science is model-based. That's not an argument.

ruralcounsel: In other words, lots of handwaving and adjustable parameters.

That's funny. On the one hand, we have scientists who have spent a generation launching satellite alimeters and collecting data. On the other hand, you wave your hands and say "Is not." Sure, they could be wrong, but you haven't raised an objection that wasn't already considered in the paper.

ruralcounsel: That doesn't sound like they are particularly confident in the accuracy of their predictions

The uncertainty range is part of the findings.

#4.1.3.1 Zachriel on 2023-11-20 14:29 (Reply)

Your response clearly demonstrates that you didn't understand either the reference or my remarks about it.

Yes, I could read the title. However, that has nothing to do with being able to validate their methodology by independent means, since their approach is only for a historically short period of data.

The handwaving is in how they adjust and interpret the data. I have no problem with the altimetry data. It's what they do to manipulate it into sea-level rise conclusions.

The uncertainty is in far more than their error bars. RTFP (Read The F****** Paper). They actually are honest enough to say so, unlike you, Z.

#4.1.3.1.1 ruralcounsel on 2023-11-20 16:58 (Reply)

ruralcounsel: However, that has nothing to do with being able to validate their methodology by independent means, since their approach is only for a historically short period of data.

The intent of Nerem (2018) is to look at the satellite data and see if an acceleration is detected and whether any acceleration is consistent with projections—which is what they found. Other studies have considered historical data, such as Dangendorf et al., Persistent acceleration in global sea-level rise since the 1960s, Nature Climate Change 2019.

ruralcounsel: The uncertainty is in far more than their error bars.

Nerem (2018) discuss the various sources of uncertainty, including instrument drift. After accounting for these uncertainties, they were still able to provide an estimated acceleration of 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y2. Sure, the estimate could be wrong, but you haven't provided any reason to suggest it is.

#4.1.3.1.1.1 Zachriel on 2023-11-20 17:18 (Reply)

Sure, the estimate could be wrong, but you haven't provided any reason to suggest it is.

Except what they admitted to in the paper. Like I said, read it.

Let me guess. You also think there is "no evidence" to accuse Biden of corruption.

#4.1.3.1.1.1.1 ruralcounsel on 2023-11-20 19:57 (Reply)

ruralcounsel: Except what they admitted to in the paper.

We have. It says, “we show that this rate is accelerating at 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y2, which agrees well with climate model projections.”

#4.1.3.1.1.1.2 Zachriel on 2023-11-20 21:20 (Reply)

QUOTE:

results are really model-based as much as they are measurement based.

Would that explain why the data reflects the projections?

The linked to site is run by NOAA. This is the same group of 'scientists' that use ghost sites for temperature collection. There are no instruments left at certain sites, but that doesn't preclude the honorable NOAA 'scientists' from data collection. They just make the numbers up. Surprise, surprise! That data also conforms to their conclusions.

#4.1.3.2 B. Hammer on 2023-11-20 14:30 (Reply)

B. Hammer: Would that explain why the data reflects the projections?

The data is the data.

B. Hammer: This is the same group of 'scientists' that use ghost sites for temperature collection.

The satellite data is consistent with the surface data.

#4.1.3.3 Zachriel on 2023-11-20 14:40 (Reply)

And we know the surface data is crap because it is concentrated from stations in a very small geographic area compared to the whole globe (mostly US and Europe), and for many missing stations they make up the reported numbers.

Not to mention their continued "corrections" to make the past cooler and the present warmer than the actual numbers.

#4.1.3.3.1 ruralcounsel on 2023-11-20 20:01 (Reply)

pod juice e liquid

#4.1.3.3.1.1 vaping oasis (Link) on 2023-12-18 21:42 (Reply)

ruralcounsel: And we know the surface data is crap

And yet the satellite data, using entirely different means, shows much the same trend—which you ignored.

#4.1.3.3.2 Zachriel on 2023-11-20 21:23 (Reply)

Pure BS

The sea level has been very slowly rising since the end of the little ice age as has the average temperature. Neither the sea level rise nor the temperature rise exceeded the estimate they expected as the earth returns to "normal" temperature after the mini ice age ended. That's it!!! That's the entire global warming story, period. We are approaching "normal"! DUH!

The global warming grift is exactly that being exploited by various special interest to get money, power or both. EVERYONE pushing it is in on the grift! Everyone not sure or doubting it is going to pay for the grift in money or lost rights. IF they pull off this grift America and most of the West will be destroyed. Wake up before they take everything you've got including your lives.

#4.1.4 OneGuy on 2023-11-20 15:03 (Reply)

OneGuy: The sea level has been very slowly rising since the end of the little ice age as has the average temperature.

What will those crazy climate scientists come up with next?! The rate and degree of the current warming trend is anomalous.

OneGuy: Neither the sea level rise nor the temperature rise exceeded the estimate they expected as the earth returns to "normal" temperature after the mini ice age ended.

What mechanism do "they" claim is causing the current warming trend? "the mini ice age ended" is not a mechanism.

#4.1.4.1 Zachriel on 2023-11-20 15:19 (Reply)

Zach, baby, the sea level rises and the sea level falls. That's what it does. And, to be real, some of this "rise" and "fall" is because the earth is not static, regions do rise and fall as well. There was a serious static rebound in central North America after the glaciers melted, and continental drift and other pressures mean parts of various continents rise or fall.
BTW, just how would you have coped when - at the end of the last Ice Age - Lake Agassiz broke out through what is now Hudson's Bay and sent a vast wave of water eastward across the Atlantic Ocean and into the Mediterranean Sea. The Biblical version is seriously truncated (though I have read that "40" for the ancient Hebrews just meant "many") but the insidious rise of the water must have been fearsome to those living near the seashore. And the record of the "flood" isn't just Biblical; one finds legends from around the world remembering the shock to shore-dwelling societies when the seas began to rise.

#4.1.4.1.1 Frances on 2023-11-21 02:12 (Reply)

Frances: the sea level rises and the sea level falls.

What will those crazy scientists come up with next?!

You are correct that there are many known instances of disasters of Biblical proportions. That's just another reason to avoid avoidable disasters.

#4.1.4.1.2 Zachriel on 2023-11-21 08:40 (Reply)

duck hunting - my dad told me "hunt dove or quail not ducks - its wet, cold, and duck doesn't taste that good. I don't know why I spent all that time hunting ducks with your uncle".

#5 bobmark on 2023-11-20 09:55 (Reply)

"A Chart: What Happened to the Jewish Population of the Middle East (There Did Used to Be One)"

The Jewish "Nakba" after 1948 worked out a little differently from the Arab one because Israel took most of them in. Today, their descendants make up over half of the Israeli Jewish population. And they're not all sitting in "refugee camps".

So effectively, the Arab states surrounding Israel managed to reinforce the nascent state's Jewish population by several hundred thousand.

#6 JJM on 2023-11-20 10:05 (Reply)

"After Hamas terrorists set about murdering, raping and abducting as many women as they could, one might have expected widespread condemnation from the West’s feminist groups."

Again, Feminists only care about crime when the perpetrator is White and the victim isn't.

#7 Maniac on 2023-11-20 10:05 (Reply)

Maniac: Again, Feminists only care about crime when the perpetrator is White and the victim isn't.

National Organization for Women (NOW): "NOW Condemns Violent Hateful Attacks Against Israel . . . NOW supports the right of the Jewish people to live without fear or violence, and we condemn antisemitism in all its forms." NOW is the largest largest feminist organization in the U.S.

#7.1 Zachriel on 2023-11-20 10:19 (Reply)

National Organization for Women… they are still in business?

Maybe they can provide the definition of a woman!

#7.1.1 mudbug on 2023-11-20 10:38 (Reply)

Does NOW have anything to say on the subject of men successfully insinuating themselves into women's sports teams?

#7.1.2 Sixtyville on 2023-11-20 11:35 (Reply)

Samantha Pearson, head of University of Alberta's Sexual Assault Center. She signs an open letter denying women were raped during Hamas' October 7 attack.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/head-of-canadian-campus-sexual-assault-center-signs-letter-denying-oct-7-rape-cases/ar-AA1k9dXg

Pearson previously said in a video about the center that it’s important for women to know “they’re going to be believed.” This does not appear to be the case when it comes to Israeli women, however.

Fortunately, they fired her.

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/r1k6xldnt

#7.2 ruralcounsel on 2023-11-20 14:23 (Reply)

Too bad about the Girl Scouts, but that's the way the cookie crumbles.

#8 Sixtyville on 2023-11-20 11:32 (Reply)

On "unpaid care", my wife just returned from caring for my dying mother from 7 Jul till last Tues. (Mom died on All Saints Day; a blessing.) She'd been caring, off and on, for my parents (in Las Vegas; we live near Pensacola, Fl) for over 5 years. It's shameful to put a price on a loved one: child, spouse, sibling, parent. Caring for a loved one is done because it's the fricking right thing to do. It's about sharing stories (cruising downtown Las Vegas in the late 40's and picking up a hitchhiking Edward G Robinson with your friend hoisting a pet skunk on her shoulder (to keep the scoundrels away), laughing, (your O2 and pulse are reading zero, but here you are!" And, "yes, Mom, you're dying, but I can't speed the process; that would be murder and I don't look good in orange"), and providing likely the best hospice care the pros had seen. We can't and won't bill the estate for her time and effort. Family rightly sacrifices for family because family is...family.

#9 Mark (Link) on 2023-11-21 01:28 (Reply)

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Monday, November 20. 2023

Monday morning links