Monday morning links

Dr. Clauser was awarded a Nobel prize in 2021 for his work in the development of computer models to track global warming and won another for physics in 2022.

Uh, no. While Clauser did share the Nobel Prize in Physics in 2022 for his work on quantum entanglement, it was Syukuro Manabe, Klaus Hasselmann, and Giorgio Parisi who won the Nobel Prize in Physics in 2021 for the study of complex physical systems. Manabe and Hasselmann's work concerned physical modeling of Earth’s climate.

Clauser is not a climate scientist.

#1 Zachriel on 2023-07-24 08:54 (Reply)

That never stopped Al Gore from getting the Nobel prize back in 2007 for his climate grift.

#1.1 Lord Heathen on 2023-07-24 10:15 (Reply)

Lord Heathen: That never stopped Al Gore from getting the Nobel prize back in 2007 . . .

Al Gore won the Nobel Peace Prize for advocacy, not the Nobel Prize for Physics.

The article makes two appeals to authority. The appeal to authority for the claim about winning a Nobel Prize about global warming is simply false. The appeal to authority regarding the Nobel Prize for Physics he did win doesn't confer authority on the topic of climate change which is far outside his area of expertise. As Clauser hasn't published any scientific research on climate, all we have is a very smart person rejects climate science. Whether or not he should address the IMF as a non-expert on climate science is up to them.

#1.1.1 Zachriel on 2023-07-24 10:42 (Reply)

Z is correct about one thing: Dr. Clauser criticized a 2021 Nobel prize awarded to someone else for climate modeling; he was awarded his own Nobel prize for quantum entanglement work.

Z is incorrect in stating that Dr. Clauser is not a climate scientist. He is an accomplished physicist who created a climate model that outperforms the politically fashionable ones, by including the important feedback impact of cloud cover. The socially credentialed "climate scientists" may not think he's in their club, but his model works better, which is all we should care about unless we've given ourselves completely up to fad and superstition. He can probably spot them all 40 points in an IQ contest or any other reasonable standard of scientific aptitude.

#1.2 Texan99 on 2023-07-24 11:52 (Reply)

Texan99: Z is incorrect in stating that Dr. Clauser is not a climate scientist. He is an accomplished physicist who created a climate model that outperforms the politically fashionable ones, by including the important feedback impact of cloud cover.

We would be happy to reconsider our previous statement about Clauser. Can you provide a citation?

(Contrary to your other claim, cloud feedback is an intense area of scientific interest. See, for instance, Ceppi & Nowack, Observational evidence that cloud feedback amplifies global warming, PNAS 2021.)

#1.2.1 Zachriel on 2023-07-24 12:01 (Reply)

Here are some links to John Clauser's scientific publications:

#1.2.2 Zachriel on 2023-07-24 12:11 (Reply)

"Clauser is not a climate scientist." And the climate modelers are definitely not scientists nor do they behave as scientists.

As acknowledged by the IPCC: “The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future exact climate states is not possible. Rather the focus must be upon the prediction of the probability distribution of the system’s future possible states by the generation ensembles of model solutions.” And just how do they know that the "model solutions" have any connection with reality?

IPCC 2001, Technical Summary of the Working Group I Report, G.1 Data,
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/07/WG1_TAR_TS.pdf

They also do not know how to actually write equations for many of the processes involved in modeling the climate. As a result they resort to “parameterization”. “Parameterization in a weather or climate model is a method of replacing processes that are too small-scale or complex to be physically represented in the model by a simplified process.” Notice that they specifically include processes that are too complex to model such as clouds and rain!

Parametrization (climate modeling),
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parametrization_(climate_modeling).

Quantifying Parameter and Structural Uncertainty in Climate Modeling, https://clima.caltech.edu/2021/05/13/quantifying-parameter-and-structural-uncertainty-in-climate-modeling/

Without experimental validation, parameterization is just guess work and curve fitting. As John von Neumann the great twentieth century mathematician once said “with four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk”.

Thanks for playing Zachriel, it's always fun to see what the party line is at the moment.

#1.3 Paul In Boston on 2023-07-24 12:30 (Reply)

Now the Quibble-DickZ are frantically searching ChatGPT for a response.

#1.3.1 Zachinoff on 2023-07-24 13:21 (Reply)

Paul in Boston: “The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future exact climate states is not possible.

That's right. However, that doesn't preclude reaching some reasonable conclusions. Heat a pot to boiling. Predicting exactly where and when bubbles will form is largely intractable, but bubbles will form nonetheless. More practically, the track of a hurricane is chaotic, so predicting the exact path is not possible, but it is possible to reasonably predict probable paths.

Paul in Boston: “Parameterization in a weather or climate model is a method of replacing processes that are too small-scale or complex to be physically represented in the model by a simplified process.”

That's right. That's common in most studies of complex systems, including weather models.

Paul in Boston: Without experimental validation, parameterization is just guess work and curve fitting.

Science is all about observational validation. In our previous comment, we even pointed to observational evidence on cloud feedback. See Ceppi & Nowack, Observational evidence that cloud feedback amplifies global warming, PNAS 2021. That's how parameterization works in science. You use observational methods to narrow the reasonable range of the parameter. Scientists use satellites, such as CloudSat , to study the physics of clouds. Because, contrary to your claim about climate scientists, they use observational methods to understand the evolution of climate.

#1.3.2 Zachriel on 2023-07-24 14:53 (Reply)

and right on cue...ChatGPT answer.

Zachriel: What doesn't it know?

Astrophysicist, property lawyer, affirmative action expert, search engine, newspeak dictionary, constitutional scholar, carrier of Trump Derangement Syndrome, master of the non sequitur, pretentious movie critic, high school civics teacher, financial analyst, the ackchyually guy, nitpicker, Historical art critic, armchair economist, poverty expert, theoretician of science, Covid apologist, speech therapist, climate scientist.

#1.3.2.1 eeyore on 2023-07-24 15:09 (Reply)

So laughingly transparent are these kiddieZzzz.

Did I call it or what?

#1.3.2.1.1 Zachinoff on 2023-07-24 18:26 (Reply)

The Great London Beer Flood of 1814

https://hauntedpalaceblog.wordpress.com/2023/07/17/the-great-london-beer-flood-of-1814/

#2 feeblemind on 2023-07-24 09:11 (Reply)

Liberal Faculty Members Flee Florida’s New College Following DeSantis Takeover. The writer says this like it's a BAD thing.

Many U.S. women’s soccer players refused to acknowledge the national anthem Just another reason to avoid women's sports (just like the WNBA). However, I do invoke the Beach Volleyball Exception.

#3 Mike Anderson (Link) on 2023-07-24 09:26 (Reply)

Was thinking the same thing. The exiting faculty simply make it easier to become the Hillsdale of the South.

#3.1 grant1863 on 2023-07-24 18:37 (Reply)

President Lopez-Obrador has every right to stick his nose in America’s elections. Nearly 1/3 of his fellow countrymen reside here, representing billions in remittances. And then there is the very lucrative drug trade, which kills over a hundred thousand people every year, accounting for more billions. Why wouldn’t he have a say in the elections? Seems fair to me. The Chinese own the president, and we all know were the Mexican cartels get the fentanyl. The wheels go round and round, grinding a once proud nation to dust. Vote harder amigos.

#4 B. Hammer on 2023-07-24 09:40 (Reply)

Homelessness is not complex nor is the solution. With very few exceptions the homeless are mentally ill, addicts or very low IQ. There is a smattering of people who are "down on their luck" but they typically take advantage of the hand up that is offered to them and find their way out of being homeless.

The mentally ill need treatment. Often they have had treatment in the past but have simply gone off their meds. The addicted need treatment. Yes the treatment often fails the first time or the second etc. But that is no reason to simply give up on it. The low IQ usually will work, will cooperate and don't need mental or physical health care but rather some kind of a mentor to help them manage their lives.

What we do not need is massive unaccounted for government dollars that disappear or are wasted.

#5 OneGuy on 2023-07-24 10:36 (Reply)

"What we do not need is massive unaccounted for government dollars that disappear or are wasted."

Well, WE don't. Someone's obviously getting a benefit from it or the spending would be examined for effectiveness, but it's just not who it's earmarked for.

#5.1 JLawson (Link) on 2023-07-24 10:53 (Reply)

“Examined for effectiveness.” Yes, government programs, NGO’s and charities are just loaded with accountability.

#5.1.1 Kevin in WI on 2023-07-24 19:32 (Reply)

re "Female Admiral": What, couldn't he find a transvestite?

#6 Hairless Joe on 2023-07-24 10:39 (Reply)

The women’s soccer team is dead to me. Forever, DITTO NFL.

#7 SillyMe on 2023-07-24 10:41 (Reply)

re Lopez-Obrador "sticking his nose" in US elections: Why? Because elections have consequences. Truly, our Democrat party Presidents help the world's tinpot dictators more than they can help themselves. It's very much in their interest to try to influence the outcome.

#8 Hairless Joe on 2023-07-24 10:42 (Reply)

re Zelensky Blames Failing Counteroffensive On Lack Of Munitions From West, Delayed Training

This guy's sense of entitlement really annoys me.

#9 feeblemind on 2023-07-24 10:56 (Reply)

My annoyance with him went completely off the charts when he couldn't bother to wear a jacket and tie at his hero's welcome in Congress. Joe is fixing to give him another billion an a half. No limit to the amount money available to defend Ukraines border. None for American borders.

#9.1 B. Hammer on 2023-07-24 14:06 (Reply)

I suspect Zelensky will not survive the war. The Bidens/CIA cannot allow him to walk but his own people will be more likely to end his bloody dictatorship. The Russians would shed no tears either.

#9.2 indyjonesouthere on 2023-07-24 19:28 (Reply)

re Couples in which the woman is the only earner report lower life satisfaction

I know/have known four men who have stayed home while their wives worked and none had a problem with that or spending their wives' hard earned money.

I know of another who was unemployed for over a year while his wife worked. I think that WAS a problem, but not enough of one for him to find a menial job until he could restart his career.

#10 feeblemind on 2023-07-24 11:11 (Reply)

Rather than ban legacy admissions they should ban foreign admissions.

#11 JustMe on 2023-07-24 11:33 (Reply)

While we are wishing for the moon, I would propose this; withhold all federal funding from any university that admits or employs foreigners. US citizens only.

#11.1 feeblemind on 2023-07-24 12:03 (Reply)

JustMe: Rather than ban legacy admissions they should ban foreign admissions.

Of course, that would mean U.S. students would end up being banned from foreign universities. It sort of defeats the purpose of universities, which is the exchange of knowledge.

feeblemind: I would propose this; withhold all federal funding from any university that admits or employs foreigners. US citizens only.

Albert Einstein need not apply.

#11.2 Zachriel on 2023-07-24 14:57 (Reply)

Ban illegal aliens and ban the sociology department.

#11.3 indyjonesouthere on 2023-07-24 19:32 (Reply)

Read about the glorious peoples republic of New York (CPUSA) with double increase in price utility bills incoming.
At least the tweets aren't mean.
Comrade commissar Larry Summers?
Is that Blackrock/Raytheon/Pfizer approved?
Everything must filter through these three branches of government, at least the trains derail on time but there is no Mussolini to entertain us from the imperial balcony.
Just wait until the fabulous rainbow rump ranger troops get drafted to the 51st state Ukraine, Ivan is trembling in his boots.
But, but, but, muh Wunderwaffen?

#12 Fundamental Transformation on 2023-07-24 13:11 (Reply)

Heat pump water heaters only work in temperatures above about 20 degrees F and run about 2 grand. So expensive and don't work, but other than that a fine idea.

#13 Jerryskids on 2023-07-24 13:59 (Reply)

You left out noisy, and that they produce condensate that needs to be handled as well.

Did a lot of research on these when I had to replace my old electric tank last spring. They seem like a good idea for a very small set of applications, but once you get past the hype they're not the panacea they're being sold as. They're kind of crap, actually.

Tankless fired by natgas is the way to go for both energy efficiency and luxuriously long showers. Couldn't do it this time in my application for a number of reasons, but have done it before with excellent results.

#13.1 Nonna Mouse on 2023-07-24 14:48 (Reply)

Oh, and they really only work as a heat pump down to about 50°F, not the 20° you cited. Below 50 ambient and the condensor ices up, worse still where it's humid. At that point it reverts to a traditional electric tank heater mode. And there goes your efficiency.

And...they produce cold air as a byproduct. Which is nice in the summer if you want to cool your garage or utility room for some reason, but useless otherwise.

They work for the desert southwest. That's about it.

#13.2 Nonna Mouse on 2023-07-24 15:05 (Reply)

Can Doug Burgum Be President?

QUOTE:

After his father’s death, and after he had graduated from Stanford with an MBA, he literally bet his family’s farm to start a company, Great Plains Software. Great Plains did extremely well and eventually was acquired by Microsoft for $1.1 billion. Burgum became a senior officer of Microsoft; he also took Microsoft stock instead of cash in the acquisition, which therefore turned out to be worth much more. Like all good entrepreneurs, Burgum made a number of people wealthy, not just himself.

. . . Ten days ago, I attended a Burgum fundraiser and had an opportunity to spend some time with him. He laid out his priorities as a candidate: 1) the economy, 2) energy, and 3) strong international leadership.

. . . Why might this make Burgum a strong contender? Because energy is the most important issue now before us. The Left is trying to destroy our economy, drastically lower our standard of living, and turn our future over to the Chinese Communist Party . . .

This attack on our future is more threatening, and more important, than anything else that is now happening. How many politicians understand that? Not many.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/07/can-doug-burgum-be-president.php

#14 feeblemind on 2023-07-24 14:04 (Reply)

Researchers horrified, decry rise of 'fascism' as students send mocking responses to woke survey

There is hope . . .

QUOTE:

The team claimed 50 of 349 responses to their questionnaire on the topic contained "slurs, hate speech, or direct targeting of the research team." Labeling them "malicious respondents," they adapted their project to examine how the joke responses "relate to engineering culture by framing them within larger social contexts — namely, the rise of online fascism."

. . . The research team declared that the mockery they received "had a profound impact on morale and mental health," particularly for one transgender researcher who was "already in therapy for anxiety and depression regarding online anti-trans rhetoric." The paper claimed that "managing the study’s data collection caused significant personal distress, and time had to be taken off the project to heal from traumatic harm" of having to read students' responses in the survey.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/researchers-horrified-decry-rise-fascism-students-send-mocking-responses-woke-survey

#15 feeblemind on 2023-07-24 14:26 (Reply)

The students should get extra credit for effective mocking.

#15.1 indyjonesouthere on 2023-07-24 19:38 (Reply)

I am not concerned

You might want to be.

Social contagion is a thing, especially among the yutes. The urge to conform is overwhelming, to the point that the youngins can be made adopt absurd positions that are 180° out of phase with reality (i.e., wearing a dress and chopping off parts turns a man into a real woman... er,. birthing person...with a bonus orifice... what are we allowed to call the distaff side this week?)

If you can be made to embrace absurdities, you can be made to commit atrocities. The slippery slope is an actual thing.

And this is how you get a Cultural Revolution redux.

#16 Nonna Mouse on 2023-07-24 14:35 (Reply)

"I have never used social media "

IF you have a comments section, I think you ARE social media.

#17 bobby b on 2023-07-24 15:36 (Reply)

Biden, always a shrewd appraiser of leadership talent, remarked, "I knew in a heartbeat that she was the right woman for the job when I heard that, just like Chester Nimitz used to do, she always ends her strategic briefings with a beaming smile and reciting the Navy motto, "Easy peazy lemon squeezy."

#18 Matt on 2023-07-24 19:19 (Reply)

They should have picked a submarine officer. Everything else they have is just a missile target but they keep building more targets.

#18.1 indyjonesouthere on 2023-07-24 19:42 (Reply)

About the only place one can get honest and thorough reporting.

It's more than just Hunter Biden.

https://www.thefp.com/p/hunter-biden-and-the-deep-state

#19 Zachinoff on 2023-07-24 22:53 (Reply)

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Monday, July 24. 2023

Monday morning links