Maggie's Farm

Prigozhin says his men are on a "march for justice" to remove corrupt and incompetent commanders he blames for botching the war in Ukraine.

In a televised address from the Kremlin, Putin said Russia's very existence was under threat.

. . . Western capitals said they were closely following the situation in nuclear-armed Russia.

. . ."This represents the most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times," Britain's defence ministry said.

"Over the coming hours, the loyalty of Russia's security forces, and especially the Russian National Guard, will be key to how this crisis plays out."

Putin's grip on power may depend on whether he can muster enough loyal troops to combat the mercenaries at a time when most of Russia's military is deployed at the front in southern and eastern Ukraine.

Prigozhin will have some supporters among the civil and military elite, for his arguments if not for his character, and he is after all not short of funds when it comes to buying favours and intelligence. And while most will take it for granted that their careers and wellbeing depend on Putin’s survival, few can have many illusions left about the mismanagement of this war and the costs it is imposing on Russian society and economy. Most for now will be keeping their heads down, but if this goes much further then there will be demands for loyalty that will carry their own risks.

. . . It is telling that Moscow’s instinctive response is to insist that the mutiny is already failing and that Wagner fighters are seeing the error of their ways and returning to join their true comrades. There is a hope, present in Putin’s speech, that the Wagner troops can be divided from their leader. Denying bad news is the default position of this regime but there is no evidence for now that the mutiny is faltering.

The big question is how the rest of the armed forces will respond.

.. . .There are reports – rumours – of some from mainstream forces going over to Wagner. Many more may be passive spectators. If he can’t mobilise substantial loyalist units then Putin is in trouble. If he can then Prigozhin will be isolated and potentially crushed. One factor in all of this is where the loyal troops come from given that so much of the army is bogged down in Ukraine.

Even if Wagner is defeated quickly, which I would not take for granted, then this is still a big shock to the regime and it will have been weakened. If the confrontation goes in the other direction then all bets are off and panic may start to grip the Kremlin. The problem for autocrats like Putin is that they don’t really know what is going on among their people, and that tends to add to the panic. Moreover once the high command looks vulnerable what will the junior commanders do in their battles with Ukrainian forces? How keen will they be to die for a cause that seems lost?