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Friday, June 23. 2023

Atlantic: What is Milk?

POWER LINE U ON ‘A PLAGUE OF MODELS’

Who believes models?

Navy Knew Titan Submarine Imploded Days Ago – Military Acoustic Detection System Picked Up Implosion Hours After Vessel Began Its Exploration

Yeah, I figgered that

Censorship Is What They Demand When Their Propaganda Fails. When elites start demanding the silencing of their opponents, it's a sign that people have stopped believing the Big Lie

Oregon County Sues Fossil Fuels Companies For Almost $52 Billion

What does it say about our culture when physicians are afraid to speak the truth about transgenderism, for fear of being ostracized from their profession?

TGIF: Plumbing the Depths - Elon & Zuck are fighting. Muslims & Christians are uniting. Hunter Biden gets off. Meghan & Harry get sacked. Plus, a Titanic trip ends in tragedy.

IS THE COVER-UP UNRAVELING?

Nope

IRS Whistleblowers Release New Bombshell Evidence Against Bidens, DOJ And AG Garland

Doesn't matter

Greta Thunberg’s Beginning of the End of the World Prediction Was for Today, June 21st

Silly girl. Hope she's making $

Posted by Bird Dog in Hot News & Misc. Short Subjects at 08:57 | Comments (27) | Trackbacks (0)

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Why would you possibly hope that GT is making money?
I hope she is ruining her life. And dragging some of her cohort along with her.

#1 ruralcounsel on 2023-06-23 09:42 (Reply)

For fun

#1.1 Bird Dog on 2023-06-23 09:43 (Reply)

She isn't silly. She has mental illness.

#1.1.1 jack walter on 2023-06-23 12:09 (Reply)

Isn't she autistic?

It's not going to end well when her handlers toss her aside.

#1.2 Maniac on 2023-06-23 10:12 (Reply)

"All models are wrong, but some are useful" — George E. P. Box

QUOTE:

Who believes models?

Models are the basis for all science, from the heliocentric model to models that track hurricanes.

QUOTE:

Models by their nature are abstractions of knowledge from a thing so they don't add data they they don't add knowledge to a situation

The Heliocentric model allowed for more accurate predictions of astronomical events. Hurricane tracking models provide information about where a hurricane is likely to make landfall, allowing people to take measures to protect themselves, and thereby, saving lives.

#2 Zachriel on 2023-06-23 10:28 (Reply)

Models must be vetted against reality.

Those that work are kept.

Those that don't are discarded.

A model has no value until it is vetted.

The 'model' the Oceanview company used to create their sub for deep dives was tested against reality.

Reality won, and the ship imploded.

The Tacoma Narrows Bridge fell because their assumptions were inaccurate, their 'modeling' was off.

The FIU pedestrian bridge that failed - well, I'm sure they passed all their mathematical modeling... right?

Models are used in all sorts of science. But the model has NO inherent value until it's tested rigorously.

And reality always has the last word.

#2.1 JLawson (Link) on 2023-06-23 11:25 (Reply)

"OceanGate", not 'OceanView'.

#2.1.1 JLawson (Link) on 2023-06-23 11:42 (Reply)

JLawson: Models must be vetted against reality.

Absolutely. Though, it should be noted that models are never perfect. The Copernican model was still not particularly accurate, because it assumed circular orbits, but it was better than the older Ptolemaic model.

Consequently, a model should be evaluated against the null (Is it better than nothing?) or against other models; and the evaluation should be based on what they purport to predict and not against perfection.

So, hurricane tracking models are constantly evaluated against one another based on their performance, not just in terms of their final predictions but on a granular level, and they make probabilistic predictions so have to be evaluated on that basis.

Our point stands about the claim that models don't add knowledge. Knowing where a hurricane will likely make landfall is new and important knowledge.

#2.1.2 Zachriel on 2023-06-23 12:24 (Reply)

Ford Gets a $9.2 Billion Cheap Government Loan With Inflationary Strings Attached

Ford gets a loan, massive incentives, and government pressure on how to spend the money. Effectively, the US government is now in the car and battery making business.

QUOTE:

The Biden Administration’s emissions rules require EVs to be 17% of sales in 2026 and two-thirds by 2032. They were about 3% last year.

2026. That's only two model years away.

QUOTE:

EVs are coming. There is no escape. But the chargers, metals, rare earth elements and electrical grid all seem woefully short of what’s needed to make this worse. And on top of the increased electrical demand for EVs is a simultaneous push to depend more on wind and solar. The battery storage technology is nowhere near ready.

Biden is hell bent on socializing the auto industry to his liking. And the socialists are pleased.

Everything Biden does adds inflation pressures.

https://mishtalk.com/economics/ford-gets-a-9-2-billion-cheap-government-loan-with-inflationary-strings-attached/

#3 feeblemind on 2023-06-23 10:32 (Reply)

feeblemind: Ford Gets a $9.2 Billion Cheap Government Loan With Inflationary Strings Attached

Keep in mind that China implements industrial policy, which allows the deep pockets of the government to develop new sectors before the free market would do otherwise. The American space program was an industrial policy that pushed forward the rocket and semiconductor industries. Tesla, a near trillion dollar business, was the result of industrial policy.

QUOTE:

The future is coming on
I ain't happy, I'm feeling glad
I got sunshine in a bag
I'm useless but not for long
The future is coming on
It's coming on
It's coming on
It's coming on
It's coming on

— Gorillaz

#3.1 Zachriel on 2023-06-23 10:46 (Reply)

Taking those as examples of industrial policy, let's consider some examples that are not a result of industrial policy:

cars, telephone, cell phone, computers, TV, HD TV, air planes, jets, domestic electricity, X-ray, CT scans, MRI, aspirin, heating with wood to coal to gas, lighting from candles to whale oil to gas to electricity, building with wood to iron to steel, moving some liquid products by horse cart to truck to train to pipeline, and on and on.

In each of those cases and in every case there is a new technology or advancement, it is the wealthy who pay the initial cost of development and those products become cheaper and more available because of advances and economies of scale made possible by those initial buyers. In other cases, there were failures. Those failures were paid for by the initial investors and purchasers and not by the general public. None of that can be said for products coming from industrial policies.

#3.1.1 mudbug on 2023-06-23 12:11 (Reply)

mudbug: cars, telephone, cell phone, computers, TV, HD TV, air planes, jets, domestic electricity, X-ray, CT scans, MRI, aspirin, heating with wood to coal to gas, lighting from candles to whale oil to gas to electricity, building with wood to iron to steel, moving some liquid products by horse cart to truck to train to pipeline, and on and on.

Those products that rely on semiconductors were impacted by national science investment. Some of those inventions are associated with university research centers, such as the University of Giessen chartered by Rudolf II, Holy Roman Emperor. However, markets were clearly instrumental in many of those discoveries and certainly their implementation.

That doesn't address industrial policy. Let's see if we can help. With industrial policy, the government is trying to foresee future developments. When the government gets it right, the country can reap great benefits by leapfrogging over their competitors or by developing a specialty niche. When they are wrong, though, it can be costly in terms of investment and also in terms of market distortions. Governments aren't necessarily known for their perspicacity.

#3.1.1.1 Zachriel on 2023-06-23 12:36 (Reply)

The government was unable to foresee inflation or how stubbornly it is hanging on. And governments are never able to see depressions until they have bottomed. The government is composed of economic illiterates that have little spending discipline. It is why government should remain small.

#3.1.1.1.1 indyjonesouthere on 2023-06-23 13:31 (Reply)

indyjonesouthere: The government was unable to foresee inflation or how stubbornly it is hanging on. And governments are never able to see depressions until they have bottomed.

Is your position that industrial policy is always a mistake, even when competitors are investing in industrial policy? What if China subsidizes a product driving American producers out of the market?

#3.1.1.1.2 Zachriel on 2023-06-23 14:44 (Reply)

America shipped manufacturing overseas with the good wishes of government interested in a pollution free country. Now we can't fight a virus or a war without going to oversea sources. That is a damn fine mess. It was political policy and not industrial policy that drove the stupid.

#3.1.1.1.2.1 indyjonesouthere on 2023-06-23 16:34 (Reply)

indyjonesouthere: America shipped manufacturing overseas with the good wishes of government interested in a pollution free country.

While pollution controls do add to costs, the primary driver of offshoring was the much lower costs of plentiful labor in Asia. That’s how markets work. Meanwhile, Americans compete through innovation. Due to the strong market forces, preventing offshoring of manufacturing requires an industrial policy. (You didn’t attempt to answer the questions.)

#3.1.1.1.2.1.1 Zachriel on 2023-06-23 21:58 (Reply)

It was always a political decision. Import cheap goods and now import cheap labor. It satisfies the US oligarchs and the US politicians that can acquire mail in ballots. I just pointed out who benefits. You avoid who benefits and who pays the price for the export of jobs and the import of cheap labor.
Industrial policy be damned. Export industrial pollution and import cheap harvesters, nannies and groundskeepers for the oligarchs.

#3.1.1.1.2.1.1.1 indyjonesouthere on 2023-06-25 14:40 (Reply)

indyjonesouthere: It was always a political decision. Import cheap goods and now import cheap labor.

Your position is self-contradictory. It's the market the prefers cheap imported goods and cheap imported labor. It takes government action to prevent it.

indyjonesouthere: You avoid who benefits and who pays the price for the export of jobs and the import of cheap labor.

Capitalists and consumers, of course. See Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, 1776.

#3.1.1.1.2.1.1.1.1 Zachriel on 2023-06-25 16:05 (Reply)

Local hospital had to move the TRANS center away from adult primary care after some great snark from the waiting room oldsters as the circus freaks went by.
It is the serf peasant hospital that changes the name to the new donors every few years.
A woman actually commented about how nice it was for Johnny Sportsball to let them name a wing after him and there was a visible facepalm outbreak.
McHealthcarez got destroyed in the Long March and the COV-LARP was the reset.
IRSS bombshell? I'm sure that will result in a sternly worded letter or a GOP committee, that'll teach 'em.
The 87,000+ agents are armed up and on a powertrip and just like grammaw said, you better nail down everything that you want to keep, the CPUSA (D) is in power.
Make sideshow freaks circus again.

#4 Bib Overalls on 2023-06-23 11:26 (Reply)

Tucker uncovers why RFK Jr. is even MORE hated than Trump in latest fire Twitter episode

QUOTE:

There’s never been a candidate for president the media hated more than Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. . . . When Trump rolled out his presidential campaign in 2015, The New York Times waited until the 17th paragraph of the story to attack him.

. . .“Eight years later, the Times attacked Bobby Kennedy in the very first sentence of the story. Quote: ‘Robert F Kennedy Jr.’ the paper declared, ‘announced a presidential campaign on Wednesday built on relitigating COVID-19 shutdowns and shaking Americans’ faith in science,’” he continued.

Carlson went on to explain that because RFK Jr. stands against the status quo pushed by leftists, he is a threat to them. One that cannot be tolerated.

https://americanwirenews.com/tucker-uncovers-why-rfk-jr-is-even-more-hated-than-trump-in-latest-fire-twitter-episode/

#5 feeblemind on 2023-06-23 13:35 (Reply)

Physicians fear speaking the truth ... Dismantle the medical and the legal establishment from removing licenses due to their peer review process. They should have the same right to face a jury as the rest of us. Government juries carry the same viruses for which government is infected. Leave those judgements to we the people.

#6 indyjonesouthere on 2023-06-23 13:50 (Reply)

What's happening in Russia?

Wagner Chief Declares Full-On 'Coup' Against Russian Defense Ministry

QUOTE:

There are breaking reports that Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has finally completely broken off relations with the Russian military, and essentially "declared war" on the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).

According to a prominent translator who has examined freshly released audio of Prigozhin's fiery message on Telegram, the Wagner leader begins with: "PMC Wagner Commanders’ Council made a decision: the evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped. They neglect the lives of soldiers. They forgot the word “justice”, and we will bring it back."

It comes amid unverified reports that the regular military launched an attack on a Wagner encampment after months of soaring tensions, which the Russian MoD has just denied.

All of this has quickly given way to reports from the region that Prigozhin is ready to lead a full-on "coup" against top leadership, military brass in particular.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/wagner-chief-declares-full-coup-against-russian-defense-ministry

#7 feeblemind on 2023-06-23 15:51 (Reply)

Horse hockey. His primary complaint is that Russia refuses to go 'all in' with all of it's forces and just finish this quickly. Putin is playing a long game and has been reluctant to destroy a fellow Slavic nation that Russia will inevitably have to be neighbors with again. NATO and their globalist puppet masters are determined to make sure this never happens. If they want to keep poking the bear Putin will go all the way to Polish border however.

#7.1 Lord_Heathen on 2023-06-23 16:31 (Reply)

"Putin is playing a long game and has been reluctant to destroy a fellow Slavic nation that Russia will inevitably have to be neighbors with again."

Thank you, Pravda, for your input. Meanwhile, back in the real world...

#7.1.1 JJM on 2023-06-23 16:53 (Reply)

When people can't handle the truth, because it disrupts their cognitive bias.

We have no business being involved in this clusterf*ck, and neither the Ukrainian government, the US government, nor the Russian government have clean hands.

But given as many facts as we have available, here in the real world, I don;t see Putin as holding primary responsibility or what is happening here. His hand was forced. By us.

#7.1.1.1 ruralcounsel on 2023-06-23 17:16 (Reply)

Thanks, RT, for your input.

Unfortunately you Russians lied your way into your present debacle in Ukraine, so we have to assume you're still being economical with the truth now.

#7.1.1.1.1 JJM on 2023-06-23 18:28 (Reply)

" Military Acoustic Detection System Picked Up Implosion Hours After Vessel Began Its Exploration" I think you mean hours before .

#8 treefroggy on 2023-06-23 16:47 (Reply)

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Friday, June 23. 2023

Friday morning links