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Wednesday, April 5. 2023

Correlation

We all know that statistical correlation does not imply any causational link. I remember a famous study (in the news) that correlated eating broccoli with cancer.


In fact,  many reporters and citizens mistake the two. This site shows how easy it is to demonstrate meaningless correlations. All it takes is a pile of data and a computer.





Posted by Bird Dog in Fallacies and Logic at 17:05 | Comments (6) | Trackbacks (0)

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Reminds me of this:

https://xkcd.com/552/
#1 Chadd Newman on 2023-04-05 20:58 (Reply)
My favorite are anti-gun groups stating increased gun sales is directly responsible for increased gun violence.

The there was the Washington Post's AR-15'-orama last week https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2023/03/27/ar-15-facts-what-we-learned/ linking increased gun purchases with electoral polarization with "Ar15 sales surge during times of ... political change" "They soared... again in the run-up to the 2020 election" Sounds kind of insurrectiony. Nothing else was happening in 2020 during the summer of George Floyd right?

In related news using my AC causes the temperature to rise.... And when I stop using it the temperature drops.
#2 Anonymous Mike on 2023-04-05 22:50 (Reply)
As noted, correlation cuts both ways. Causation, not so much.
#2.1 Mike Anderson (Link) on 2023-04-05 23:30 (Reply)
Want to stop drunk drivers from killing sober drivers?
Ban sober drivers from driving.
That’s how gun control and COVID lockdowns work.
#3 Zachinoff on 2023-04-05 23:35 (Reply)
Humans can only observe correlation. Causation is an inference based on experience whereby like situations consistently lead to like results.

--
We have no other notion of cause and effect, but that of certain objects, which have always conjoin’d together, and which in all past instances have been found inseparable. We cannot penetrate into the reason of the conjunction. We only observe the thing itself, and always find that from the constant conjunction the objects acquire an union in the imagination. — David Hume
#4 Zachriel on 2023-04-06 08:53 (Reply)
my lovely bride works for the local pregnancy center. A candidate for local office came to solicit her vote at the center. Another worker asked him his view on abortion and he told them that "only abortion lowers crime rates" as his reason for supporting it.

Dude won't be getting our votes.
#5 Dangerous Dean on 2023-04-06 09:01 (Reply)

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