Maggie's Farm

Lots of magical thinking from Trump supporters. I voted for him twice, won't do so again.

Assume he's nominated. His ceiling is around 45% of the vote, he might somehow squeak by in the Electoral College like in 2016, but won't gain a majority. His enemies will be even more infuriated than the last time and will pull out all the weapons at their disposal. Highly unlikely he would win the general election, and the country would be torn apart in the meatime.

Even should he win, he'll be older than Joe Biden was upon inauguration. Who will want to work in his administration? It's doubtful that he would make better personnel decisions than he did the last time, from a far smaller pool of available people. In his "Grover Cleveland" second administration he would immediately be a lame duck, and the permanent bureaucracy and deep state would savagely resist him. In our system you can't just shout orders and expect things to get done.

A successful President needs a coalition of enough size to enact change. Especially since November 2020 everything Trump has done tends to make his coalition smaller. Yes, his most devoted followers are highly motivated, but most of the country doesn't conform to their desires, that's a fact they always refuse to face.

I know a lot of Only Trump people, and their fervor is as great as ever, but I also know lots of people who like me voted for him before but want to move on. The numbers just will never add up, and the most likely outcome is that Trump becomes a spoiler in the way Ross Perot was. Only the Democrats will benefit.

You are certainly entitled to your opinions, but you are not immune to the consequences of your choices. Thank you anyway for two terms of Bill Clinton as well as the subsequent career of his wife, I hope you liked having them around. I suppose we will have eight years of Gavin Newsom or some such thanks to Trump's divisive impact.

I'm certain there were lots of shenanigans in the 2020 election but it is also just possible that the outcome would still have been the same. Democrats always have a hard core 42-45% of the electorate with no interest in MAGA, they only lose when the persuadables don't go their way. Given the chaos of the pandemic and aftermath and constant media hysteria about Trump, it's not impossible that those people decided to vote him out, but I dunno...