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Monday, February 7. 2022Monday morning linksImage via Powerline Were the Beatles Just Lucky? Novel Dating Method Yields New Discovery About North American Rock Art Technocrats Demand Meat Tax To Fight Climate Change CNN, MSNBC, NYT, WaPo completely avoid Johns Hopkins study finding COVID lockdowns ineffective The Destruction of Detroit's Black Bottom. How the zeal for government project housing killed a prosperous black community in Detroit. Georgetown Law Student Protesters Demand Ilya Shapiro Firing, Reparations, Place To Cry, End To “Originalist” Center Germany to raze a 1,000-year-old forest in the name of 'going green' The End of Free-Lunch Economics Some day years from now, we predict, historians are going to look back on the work of the House select committee investigating the events of January 6 and recoil in horror. Video captures the moment SHOPPERS and clerks trying to stop brazen thieves from looting swanky Louis Vuitton store in New York while mall security look on and do NOTHING Public Policy is Blinded by White Supremacist Rhetoric — Just Not How You Think Trackbacks
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Technocrats demand meat tax.
Now that we publicly acknowledge that taxes discourage the taxed action and zero taxes encourage it, it is now time to tax the slackers and the homeless. Sounds silly but think about it; taxes as administered today are on the middle class for working and being productive which makes them poorer, but free money is handed out to the slackers and unproductive which is a reward for being an albatross around our nations neck. In lieu of "money" taxes the slackers/welfare bums can contribute 40 hours a week. Now that we publicly acknowledge that taxes discourage the taxed action
How about a tax on aliens? Say $5000/person/year? As for the meat tax, who knows? Maybe it's coming in the next 10 years or so. But if they do tax meat that much, there will be black market beef out there for sure, just like black market cigarettes. It is likely the technocrats are nothing more than government funded NGO's. Much like the NGO's that snatch up US taxpayer dollars for illegal alien relocations and illegal alien trafficking. It is still government action even though they peddle it through supposed non-government organizations.
A 25% wage tax should be charged to all work visas granted to US companies. It would help level the playing field so that US citizens would be selected rather than foreign workers. If the US government won't enforce the law preventing replacement of US workers, I do know they would like the tax income.
All of the petroglyphs are located on the ancestral lands of the Shoshone people, so it's likely that they or their ancestors were responsible for many of the etchings.
That's a controversial statement with absolutely zero support from this article. Origins of archaeological items is a huge controversy in N. America, and there is much evidence of repeated settling of territories by newcomers. Given that these petroglyphs are so old, it's probably more likely the oldest drawings were not generated by the Shoshone. Another ridiculously poor attempt at science journalism by someone pushing an agenda vs scientific study. That's not even considering the question of the dating process used, and that no uncertainties were provided. Novel Dating Method Yields New Discovery About North American Rock Art
Bad news: this had nothing to do with collectible Janis Joplin or Jimi Hendrix concert posters from the 60s and 70s. Good news: the Real Science article contained a link to the PLoS One article, which is chock full of details about the dating process and the observed error in the process. So not so ridiculous at all. The speculation about Shoshone is typical for the Discussion section in many scientific papers, and certainly demands further research and evidence. Sounds like a great dissertation topic. Better yet, I was able to follow the bibliography trail to some basic articles on errors-in-variables regression that I can use in my undergraduate teaching. I did see the link to the original publication, which of course is great.
Glad you found some useful information, and can use it for instruction. I participated in an on-line auction a couple of months ago that had a lot of classic rock collectables, Beatles, Stones, and even some Jimi Hendrix jewelry! I ended up w/ a collectable related to a prominent film star. Didn't do anything with the music collectables. The PLoS One article is a major slog. The authors go into excruciating detail on the merits and limitations of their measurement process, and are very open about calibration, adjustments, and exclusions made for their analysis. While much of the exposition is only of interest to an Atmospheric Chemist, the rationale for the analysis is a model that many scientists can only aspire to. I may hold some of my students down, Clockwork Orange-style, and make them read it.
Hey, tip me off for an auction with Hendrix jewelry. My wife digs all things Jimi. There are indications that over a 18,000 year period prior to 1492 that there were three major immigrations from Asia to North America and multiple small immigrations. Each of these immigrations upon coming to NA had to find a suitable homeland and in most cases did it by killing and absorbing all of the previous indigents/immigrants. That is how the various tribes existed at the time Columbus landed on the shores of the New World. In fact a few tribes committed genocide after 1492 to acquire their homeland. It is likely that who ever created those petroglyphs were killed and enslaved by the "noble warriors" who replaced them. NONE of them were indigent!! They were merely immigrants that arrived here before "you" and claim that circumstance made them better than "you".
QUOTE: CNN, MSNBC, NYT, WaPo completely avoid Johns Hopkins study finding COVID lockdowns ineffective . . . According to a Johns Hopkins University meta-analysis of several studies . . . It's not a Johns Hopkins University study. It's not peer-reviewed, but a working paper, and clearly states "The views expressed in each working paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the institutions that the authors are affiliated with." The review excluded the most robust studies. Here's some additional problems noted by an epidemiologist: https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1489744749942620162 I read through the Twitter feed. I note that the rebuttal was not epidemiology, but statistics. Peer review isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. Any search on the topic, will lead to hundreds of articles talking about the problems of peer review. Then at the bottom of the Twitter feed is this little gem: “As a minor addendum, I would also note that I personally agree that a lot of people originally underestimated the impact of voluntary behaviour change on COVID-19 death rates - it's probably not wrong to argue that lockdowns weren't as effective as we initially thought.”
What are you, actually arguing for? Anytime a virus shows up, we should immediately proceed to total lockdown? Disrupting society, perhaps causing worse social, economic consequences. Are you arguing that several millions of lives were saved, because of the lockdowns? No one would have died, if the lockdowns were more severe? I’m just curious why your position seems to always come down on the authoritarian side of things? The Bigger government is better government side of things. The less individualistic, more collectivist side of thing. B. Hammer: I note that the rebuttal was not epidemiology, but statistics.
That is incorrect. A major criticism was that it excluded most epidemiological research. B. Hammer: Peer review isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. Peer review doesn't mean a paper is correct, or that one that has been rejected is not. Peer review is far from a perfect system, but putting your work before your peers is the purpose of publication. B. Hammer (quoting): "it's probably not wrong to argue that lockdowns weren't as effective as we initially thought." As discussed in the previous thread, people are reactive, but due to the exponential growth potential of respiratory contagions, proactive measures are much more effective. B. Hammer: What are you, actually arguing for? That the paper is faulty, mostly because of cherry-picking. It was designed to confirm right-wing biases, and to sway the public not scientific peers. B. Hammer: Anytime a virus shows up, we should immediately proceed to total lockdown? No. Balanced and staged measures work best, for example South Korea. B. Hammer: Are you arguing that several millions of lives were saved, because of the lockdowns? No one would have died, if the lockdowns were more severe? The U.S. implemented social measures very poorly. Measures were often undermined by conspiracy theories and demagoguery. Nearly a million people died, but the U.S. still suffered extensive economic and social damage—the worst of both worlds. B. Hammer: I’m just curious why your position seems to always come down on the authoritarian side of things? Next think you know, we'll note that installing lights at intersections to tell people when to stop and when to go, and have government officials enforce the dictates of the color-coded signals, will make traffic flow more efficiently. Quibble-DickZ just gotta quibble.
They can't help themselveZ. Coming soon Uncle AVI to the rescue. Every study comes down to data points, compiling a bunch of information and turning that info into numbers. The numbers are then added, multiplied, divided, and finally messaged to fit into tables and graphs.
Statistics: the science concerned with developing and studying methods for collecting, analyzing, interpreting and presenting empirical data. I would hazard a guess that most, if not all the studies that you post are left-wing cherry picking. I would guess that the public, at least those of us that can think for ourselves, don’t need much persuasion at this point. Thus my link to the issues with modern day studies. Which, you can’t argue against, instead you present a fallacy of the absurd, like your red light argument. B. Hammer: The numbers are then added, multiplied, divided, and finally messaged to fit into tables and graphs.
The review excluded epistemological studies, including those that concerned timing of the imposition of social controls.
#3.1.1.2.1
Zachriel
on
2022-02-07 14:29
(Reply)
"Next think (sic) you know, we'll note that installing lights at intersections to tell people when to stop and when to go, and have government officials enforce the dictates of the color-coded signals, will make traffic flow more efficiently."
That's got to be the worst analogy I have ever seen. RJP: That's got to be the worst analogy I have ever seen.
Being able to stop and go at will is certainly a fundamental liberty. Do you really think government should be granted such power?
#3.1.1.3.1
Zachriel
on
2022-02-07 14:31
(Reply)
Contrary to rumors circulating around the internet, I have no fundamental right to use roads. If I want to use them, I have to follow the rules. I do, however, have a fundamental right to assembly.
#3.1.1.3.1.1
RJP
on
2022-02-07 15:16
(Reply)
RJP: I have no fundamental right to use roads.
You have the right to use public roads, but have to follow the traffic laws. RJP: I do, however, have a fundamental right to assembly. Apparently, you have to stop and go per the coded-lights on your way to the park to exercise your right to assemble, but not after dark, and be sure to have your permit. Having laws is not authoritarianism.
#3.1.1.3.1.1.1
Zachriel
on
2022-02-07 15:38
(Reply)
Straw man. No one ever said having laws is authoritarian. We're talking about laws that infringe on fundamental rights, of which driving is not. Rights are not things that can be given to you, only taken away. My freedom of speech or assembly cannot be given to me by anyone, only taken away. Roads and automobiles, on the other hand, are provided to me through mutually agreeable arrangements.
#3.1.1.3.1.1.1.1
RJP
on
2022-02-07 16:47
(Reply)
RJP: No one ever said having laws is authoritarian.
Glad we are in agreement. B. Hammer had indicated that we always came down on the "authoritarian side of things," because we suggested that reasonable measures enacted by a democratically-elected government during a pandemic—which has already killed nearly a million Americans—may be prudent, and certainly within the powers of the common law. RJP: Rights are not things that can be given to you, only taken away. The freedom to travel, including on public ways, is certainly fundamental. But like all freedoms, it is not without limitations. Permanent prohibitions on travel (as opposed to measures taken during an emergency) would be beyond the reasonable and limited powers of government.
#3.1.1.3.1.1.1.1.1
Zachriel
on
2022-02-08 09:51
(Reply)
Z: It's not a Johns Hopkins University study. It's not peer-reviewed, but a working paper, and clearly states "The views expressed in each working paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the institutions that the authors are affiliated with."
Wrong. I do not know if it is peer-reviewed but it is a Johns Hopkins University study. The title page of the study contains the seal of Johns Hopkins University and includes the attribution, "Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise". The study is part of a series called "Studies in Applied Economics" (noted on the title page). In the first section of the study called, "About the Series" it states: QUOTE: The Studies in Applied Economics series is under the general direction of Prof. Steve H. Hanke, Founder and Co-Director of The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise (hanke@jhu.edu)... (incidentally, the previous paragraph goes on to include your quote about "working papers.") Since the study is a meta-analysis of several studies, the "working papers" referenced in your quote refers to a class of papers that were analyzed, not the study itself. From page 10 of the study: QUOTE: Publication status and date We include all ex post studies regardless of publication status and date. That is, we cover both working papers and papers published in journals. We include the early papers because the knowledge of the COVID-19-pandemic grew rapidly in the beginning, making later papers able to stand on the shoulders of previous work.... From page 14 of the study: QUOTE: Table 1 covers the 34 studies eligible for our review. Out of these 34 studies, 22 were peer-reviewed and 12 were working papers..." From page 24 of the study in a section entitled "Quality dimensions": QUOTE: Peer-reviewed vs. working papers: We distinguish between peer-reviewed studies and working papers as we consider peer-reviewed studies generally being of higher quality than working papers." Health Nerd (from your twitter reference) apparently didn't even read the study. But then if you dig deep into who "Health Nerd" is, we find he is Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz who wrote, "I'm an epidemiologist. I'll be glad to get whatever vaccine I'm offered" so he seems happy to take any shot that is offered regardless of the potential side effects or efficacy so I guess it's to be expected. mudbug: Wrong. I do not know if it is peer-reviewed
It's listed as a working paper. https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/working-papers/studies-in-applied-economics/ Is this where the Zachbot thanks mudbug for correcting Z's prior misinformation about it not being a Johns Hopkins study?
Asking for a friend. To any pro-constitution real American this would be good news! That is we don't have to take away civil rights to fight disease and we can instead concentrate on what works. Only a true despot/fascist would prefer instead to crush human rights even when it has been shown to be useless in fighting the illness. AND THAT is what we have here! Zach would rather have lockdowns than save lives. He cannot stop himself from defending the useless lockdowns. Because the lockdowns served a useful purpose for him and others like him. Simple as that!!
Anon: To any pro-constitution real American this would be good news!
A findings of a flawed study can't be good news, or even news. Notice also, that Biden is looking at the left end of the spectrum.
Will his pick be, Kamala Harris bad? Or merely Wise Latino bad? Isn’t it against the law to only consider a black woman for the position? Whom ever he picks, we can be certain of two things: 1) The nominee will be devoted to a Living Constitution (spit), and 2) the GOP will fold like a cheap suit. Unlike Senator Biden, who played a role in trying to destroy Justice Thomas. And did destroy Janice Rogers Brown - a black woman. The GOP will not want to be picked on by the press, and thus will happily confirm any nominee that Biden presents. The GOP saves their most stern words for their base. They seem to rather enjoy stabbing the base in the back. B. Hammer: Isn’t it against the law to only consider a black woman for the position?
No more so than when Reagan promised to pick a woman. Only 108 of the 115 Supreme Court justices have been White men. When will a well-heeled, well-connected White man ever going to get a break? Are you hinting that Trump should be the next Supreme?
Notice Brandon blocked the nomination of a Black woman for the Supreme Court when he was Senator.
Must not have liked the "crease" of her pants. https://www.aei.org/op-eds/remembering-the-black-woman-biden-blocked-from-the-supreme-court/ Ottawa police arrest seven people and open 60 criminal investigations into 'Freedom Convoy' for HATE CRIMES as they seize fuel and supplies for 1,000 vehicles: Mayor declares state of emergency over 'totally out of control' protests
Ottawa's Mayor Jim Watson declared a state of emergency Sunday to help deal with an unprecedented 11-day occupation by protesting truckers The protest has shut down much of the core of the Canadian capital with around 7,000 protesters out on the streets over the weekend Ottawa Police arrested seven people and opened 60 criminal investigations for hate crimes and mischief They seized fuel and supplies for 1,000 vehicles just hours after the mayor declared a state of emergency Police issued a warning to the public that they could be subject to charges if they were found to be supplying demonstration trucks in the red zone with fuel Ottawa's Police Services Board Chairwoman said situation had spiraled into 'a nationwide insurrection' with protests spreading to Toronto and Quebec City 'Freedom Convoy' began as a movement against a Canadian vaccine requirement for cross-border truckers Turned into a rallying point against public health measures and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government Organizers of the protest have raised more than $4.4 million in two days on Christian crowdfunding site GiveSendGo after being denied several million dollars raised on GoFundMe A hearing into a proposed class-action lawsuit seeking an injunction to silence the constant honking by truckers will take place on Monday https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10480717/Canada-police-act-rein-protests-against-COVID-measures.html Wait for it! The Canadian government will create a false flag and cause or create a riot most likely by an armed attack on a group of protestors with clubs and other kinetic weaponry. This will anger the rest as they watch peaceful protestors beat into unconsciousness (exactly what happened Jan 6th). Then the government will use those acts to justify mass incarceration and trials of innocents (exactly what happened Jan 6th). Canadians! Wake up! Your government has turned communist on you!
Black Bottom. Adverse results of government doing a better job was not limited to large cities. With desegregation, smaller cities showed elimination of black-owned businesses as shoppers now could go into white downtown stores. In a 2000 interview, a retired teacher in Lamar County Texas related that the Brown vs. Board decision did not bring the changes expected. She taught at a "county school," rural and black. She said, "We thought the decision meant we would now get new textbooks, not old and used ones from the white schools. We thought it meant we would get new lab equipment for chemistry classes, not cast off equipment from white schools." Brown also brought elimination of black schools across the South, as black schools were consolidated with white schools, destroying memories of years of academic and sports accomplishments. The retired teacher said no one expected destruction of schools.
The paper originating from some Johns Hopkins people (and offices) illustrates something that I have been saying for months, to deaf ears, here and elsewhere. Lockdowns, shutdowns, reductions, and voluntary changes in behavior are not identical. As we should all know from the gun control debate, laws are not behavior. Different states have different violent crime rates for other reasons, yet that doesn't mean that gun safety and gun repsonsibility are irrelevant - just that the laws mostly are. Some businesses shut down before they were required to and others severely modified their requirements without being told to. People curtailed their activities, especially at restaurants, churches, bars, and even outdoor events. There would have been an enormous economic hit to the US even if the governments had instituted no mandates. Yet to read the people here, you would think that somehow "The Government" - yeah, nothing paranoid about that framing - created the all the economic damage and every inconvenience we have suffered. It ain't so, and don't tell me you knew that already, because it has not been mentioned over here very much.
Even now, people are treating a study that supposedly shows that lockdowns weren't effective - and BTW, it doesn't show that anywhere near as much as conservative outlets are pretending it does - to conclude that no shutdowns, distancing, closings, masking or other responses have any effect. I've been looking at it right in front of me over the last few days. It hasn't taken a lot of research. If you really believe that such things have no effect, what are your explanations for the radically different rates of death in different US states, or in various countries? One could argue that we didn't need lockdowns because people will generally do the right thing on their own - but if so, the restaurants and bars would still have been devastated, not to mention lots of other businesses. Yet even in that argument, though I think it better than what is said here, I think you would eventually lose to the data. The disease killed us, but people would rather get worked up about the government and hating their fellow citizens. Ludicrous and childish. "If you really believe that such things have no effect, what are your explanations for the radically different rates of death in different US states, or in various countries?"
Now that was a very bad choice to try to prove your point. I don't know you or generally read anything you write but I get the impression you consider yourself a person of science. And THAT was the most unscientific thing you could have said. The simple truth is that what explains the different rates of death in different countries and various states is random chance on a yet unfinished unthinking virus. Well that and other things you should know about, such as the U.S. has a fairly accurate reporting system as do many Western countries but 100% of the third world countries simply have no idea how many deaths they have had due to covid. AND many countries filter their information through government agencies whose job is to make the country and the leaders look good so the data is intentionally biased to favor them. But to actually think and believe that the differences we see in infection and death is due to magic masks or 6 feet of distance is naive at best and childishly stupid at worse. I have to say that after two years of this that if you are paying attention you can no longer blame naivety and you need to question your ability to understand what is going on in the world. I would say that if you are over 65 you need to get tested for Alzheimer's because you seem to be really out of touch with reality. What I would expect for most countries in the future is that over time there will be a regression to the mean. That is New Zealand and China will continue to have more cases and more deaths until they are pretty much like any other first world country with first world heath care. And that at some point they will realize that not only did the lockdowns not do any good but that they did tremendous harm. Now of course now two countries and no two states will be exactly or statistically equal, so you can search for the various outliers one either side to compare and continue to believe that you are right. But at that point what difference does it make? JustMe: The simple truth is that what explains the different rates of death in different countries and various states is random chance on a yet unfinished unthinking virus.
South Korea and New Zealand are not just statistical outliers. The differences are too great. JustMe: What I would expect for most countries in the future is that over time there will be a regression to the mean. Vaccines will change that outcome significantly. "South Korea and New Zealand are not just statistical outliers. The differences are too great."
"fools and children shouldn't see things half done. Would you bet your life savings that South Korea and New Zealand never have a covid spike or eventually see rates similar to other countries. This isn't over yet. Some countries that are more open or not lightly populated islands bared the brunt early. Do you really think the virus will never go someplace just because they force everyone to stay home, wear masks and huddle under the bed? Time will tell. This virus is a weaponized virus and eventually everyone will be exposed to it and the susceptible will get ill and some will succumb. The vieus isn't going to say "I'm not going to New Zealand, they all wear masks and huddle in fear". JustMe: Would you bet your life savings that South Korea and New Zealand never have a covid spike or eventually see rates similar to other countries.
Not in deaths, as you had claimed. JustMe: This virus is a weaponized virus and eventually everyone will be exposed to it and the susceptible will get ill and some will succumb. Vaccination greatly reduces the rate of death from COVID.
#7.1.1.1.1
Zachriel
on
2022-02-08 09:14
(Reply)
JustMe: Time will tell.
When would you expect the death rate in South Korea and New Zealand to regress to the mean?
#7.1.1.1.2
Zachriel
on
2022-02-08 09:54
(Reply)
AVI: One could argue that we didn't need lockdowns because people will generally do the right thing on their own - but if so, the restaurants and bars would still have been devastated, not to mention lots of other businesses.
Ask McDonald's or Taco Bell or Home Depot or Lowe's... where's the devastation from remaining open? The disease killed us........
Or perhaps the VAXX is doing the killing. https://citizenfreepress.com/breaking/you-may-die-which-is-normal/ This is not the first piece on insurance companies expressing concerns that excess deaths are NOT covid. I might be wrong but, I think that if you lived in a state which had no lock downs, placed no restrictions on business, you would have a different opinion. You live in a region where government is much more intrusive generally, and you may notice the changes much less particularly.
The automakers tried this gambit years ago at mostly failed. Private mechanics figured out how to work around the requirement for specialty tools and the market responded by providing new tooling.
Deere is attempting to install a subscription leech economy for equipment owners, to where one cannot touch the equipment unless they work for Deere. Deere, in addition to their huge capital sales, will then reap tremendous revenues by capturing all of the upkeep work. Even for things like routine maintenance. Any farmer will tell you that's crazy talk. A farmer must be free to work in the maintenance, repair, refurbishment on their own down-time schedule. And many of them do it themselves, or do it on a barter scheme. Just imagine being in the middle of the harvest, rain or freeze coming, and you're waiting on a Deere mechanic. I'm pretty sure 'right to repair' laws have mostly won out - but this is a new gambit for a potentially huge monetary reward. Right now, used, older tractors that are 100% manual are going for multiples of their original purchase price - for precisely that reason. A few months ago I saw where a large tractor went for almost $200,000 - and it was about a dozen years old, having originally sold for something like $50,000. Deere is attempting to install a subscription leech economy for equipment owners, to where one cannot touch the equipment unless they work for Deere...Any farmer will tell you that's crazy talk. A farmer must be free to work in the maintenance, repair, refurbishment on their own down-time schedule
Yup. When a piece of farm equipment fails, a farmer doesn't want to wait for John Deere to send a tech rep to repair it. The farmer wants it repaired ASAP. Such as getting the harvest in before a rainstorm. In the last century, a lot of prominent engineers grew up on family farms, where they had a lot of experience in fixing things during their childhoods. Great engineering training. Most of this craziness is due to EPA standards for non-road vehicles. DEF is required to keep their emissions legal and all of the emissions requirements require evermore sensors and computer chips. Has anyone in the government ever considered what would happen if DEF was a supply chain problem or if EMP were to affect operations? I think NOT. A trucker strike would become a minor problem and even railroad diesels require DEF.
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