Maggie's Farm

I don't doubt Eric Princes statements or his knowledge. But the problem is his advice will make us stronger to fight a small war somewhere. Here is what I think could happen and could be a game changer:

A conflict breaks out, could be anywhere and anybody, for the sake of the argument I put it in the South China Sea with China being the antagonist. A miscalculation or by intent one of our ships/plans is attacked with deadly consequences. Probably the initial target(s) would be part of a carrier fleet. Our fleet responds as does China and both sides receive devastating casualties which means our carrier and accompanying cruisers are sunk killing most of the crew most Chinese ships are sunk as well and most planes are shot down including a heavy toll on Chinese aircraft. This scenario is not guess work this is exactly what would happen in an inland sea against a major military state that outnumbered us in planes and ships. This would be a high tech war with both sides using very powerful and capable missiles to destory each others forces.

But this would be just the beginning, we have two more carrier fleets and numerous support ships and a handful of fully manned land based bomber and fighter squadrons. who would be deployed immediately to assist the first carrier fleet. Again the battle would take place in the small theater of the South China Sea where China would have home advantage and likely the second battle would destroy or incapacitate most of our ships and planes, all of this taking place in less than 24 hours.

There would be panic resupplying of the forces in the area and most likely there would be additional battles which would further reduce the total number of anti-ship and anti-aircraft/missile missiles on both sides. Now the problem is that our ships are almost defenseless against high tech tactics. At this point it is a simple matter of who has the most high tech missiles left and I'm betting China has them and would use them. They could use ship killer missiles against our ships that are in the South China sea, or 1000 or more miles away because the dogs of war were already released. So every military asset within 1000-2500 miles of the South China Sea could be destroyed by super sonic high tech missiles that cannot be defended against.

At this point all of our remaining high tech missiles are protecting other ships and aircraft elsewhere in the world and cannot be used to resupply the Asian forces that have survived. We don't have a "stockjpile" of these essential missiles. And WE are now "almost" out of the high tech war game and we have only conventional or nuclear options left.

What now???

We will all see China take Tiawan and a few assorted Japanese and Philippine islands. But if you are under age 60 you will get to see China invade Australia and New Zealand in your lifetime. THOSE are the prizes in the South Pacific and that is where China intends to expand to.