Maggie's Farm

I think the most recent info is coming down on the idea that we are exposed to things that screw up our leptin levels, causing us to not believe we are full or fat. This kicks into another gear starting around 1980. There are a few strong nominees and some unlikely ones. We can override this with effort, but it's not as easy as it used to be, and for those whose brains have been most confused, it can be very hard indeed.

The idea that people who display enormous self-discipline in hours worked, sexual continence through longer years of education, getting exercise, and saving money should somehow have suddenly lost this discipline when it comes to weight is ludicrous. It is only believed because of our general narrative that "Damn kids these days can't even shoe a horse" and our recent ancestors were of much stronger character than we are, and because people who do not feel the level of constant hunger that others do like to feel smug and virtuous.

There are no diets identified that have a proven, generalised record of sustaining a 20% loss of body weight for five years.

Part 1. This is the classic 20% correct solution that people have been embracing for decades but is inadequate. I don't want to kick you as a stupid person, Jeff. The last person I know who told me this is literally the smartest person I have every met, who went to MIT at 16, got a PhD in Chemistry at U Wisconsin, with patents in low-temperature ceramics (no, I don't know what it is either) that the Japanese still send him checks for. But he was wrong and so are you. Taubes's shtick is that the experts all say Calories In, Calories Out, but he knows better. Yet as far as I know, no serious researchers say CICO, just get more exercise anymore. It works great for 6-12 months, and people often lose up to 10% of their body weight. Then it levels off and the body fights you back even more intensely by re-metabolising. Some people can still keep going, losing even 20% of body weight, but not many. And after that, only the people who are digging in with intense willpower in order to face surgery or avoid certain death continue to lose. And those are temporary losses, as they regain quickly when they stop.

Part 2. The usual explanations about fast foods, less exercise, lazy bastards showed a reasonable progression from 1950-1980, and we might guess that this slight increase is still there underneath all the other rises we have seen since then. But in 1980 things moved to a higher gear, and none of the usual explanations about carbs, fats, exercise, or calories fit the data. Lots of people have theories about what happened - GMO foods, seed oils, lithium exposure, PFAS, with varying degrees of plausibility. (Hint. Don't even bother about the GMO foods. It's all noise with no data.)

I have my own favorite, but I think the important piece is to just keep your eyes open going forward about which explanation gains steam. Bottom line: CICO has a real, moderate effect, but something else started happening right around 1980.