Friday morning links

US Media driving fear of Covid-19? Of course they did. Simplistically put - bad news gets clicks, and clicks keep the lights on.

There is NO incentive to present a reasonable look at the issue. There is every financial incentive to portray this as absolutely bad as possible.

Thus - you get breathless 'We have 14-15 million cases! OMG!' when that's a cumulative number of POSITIVE TESTS. Which includes false positives, aymptomatic cases, and multiple tests of the same person... so if someone's in the hospital for 7 days, and they get tested once a day - that'll boost the numbers.

But where's the incentive to tell things as they are? Sensationalistic reporting brings in the money.

#1 JLawson on 2020-12-04 09:43 (Reply)

Who gets vaccines first?

Definitely not me. Vaccines are like software or consumer electronics--only a risk-loving early adopter gets Version 1.0.

My employer has discouraged us from spending time on campus, so I'll continue to telework in my favorite undisclosed location through May. Perhaps Vaccine 2.0 will be in the pipeline by then.

#2 Mike Anderson (Link) on 2020-12-04 09:50 (Reply)

Government leaders should get the vaccine first as a matter of principle: setting an example.

And they should be seen to be getting it too i.e., full media coverage.

#2.1 JJM on 2020-12-04 21:39 (Reply)

Mike - count your blessings that you are able to telework. Have family and know others who cannot; think veterinarian trying to conduct a consult with a cat over the phone. Even I - now in the "at risk" demographic (and THAT was a shock) have to visit clients, though do so cautiously.

Also, when head out for groceries, etc., am very grateful for the workers that stock he shelves, bake the bread, cut up the meat, and in many ways work so we can eat. And thanks to the Donair place just down from a client, whose product is to die for and in which I indulge every time I visit said client.

In our city, the highest number of positive Covid tests comes from the quadrant that houses the most immigrants; they tend to work the "on site" jobs, have multi-generational households, and use transit. Though I also suspect some of the spread is cultural: these are communities (and there are several distinctly groups) where socializing is the norm and it's going to be difficult to get through to the grandparents that THEY CAN'T GO OUT TO VISIT THEIR FRIENDS during the day when the parents are both working and the grandbrats are at school/daycare.

And, over Christmas, we hope to see our own Grandbrats (trust me, they've earned the title). It may be drive-by, but we'll figure it out. Feel really sorry for those in nursing homes and long-term care facilities where the only solution seems to be to put the residents in a form of solitary confinement. No wonder so many of them have just given up hope and withered away.

#2.2 Frances on 2020-12-04 21:53 (Reply)

My governor has decided that select groups will get the vaccine first AND that she will appoint a vaccine commission to determine if the vaccine is safe before she allows it to be distributed. So I suspect that the lowly citizen is way down on the list and we may not see vaccines for Covid until Spring.

#3 OneGuy on 2020-12-04 10:40 (Reply)

And here we go, we must reset the world to avoid a climate catastrophe! This is where we move from COVID lockdowns to environmental lockdowns. The evil creeps have already figured out that the masses are easily duped, time to finish them off.

If you pursue enough of the internet, you’ll notice more and more democrat officials, get caught disregarding their own COVID rules. I wish we had republican leadership with the same kind of moxie.

I’ll give up my place in line for the COVID vaccine. I’ve had the real thing.

#4 B. Hammer on 2020-12-04 10:42 (Reply)

Could someone explain to me how the new Covid vaccines are allegedly much more effective than the annual flu vaccines?

The three front runners for Covid vaccine approval, Pfizer, Moderna, and Oxford-Astra Zeneca, have announced their vaccine effectiveness in clinical trials as 95%, 94.5%, and 90% respectively.

The CDC shows the “Adjusted vaccine effectiveness estimates for influenza seasons from 2004-2018.” See https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/past-seasons-estimates.html That page lists only three flu seasons out of the last fifteen where the vaccine effectiveness was over 50%. The 2004-2005 season was only 10% effective, and the 2018-2019 season was 29% effective.

#5 Adam on 2020-12-04 10:50 (Reply)

This is one of those things where I thought "everyone" knew this, but I'm often reminded that others are not as nerdy as me:

• Hardly anyone is actually tested for 'flu'. The effectiveness of flu vaccine is measured largely against estimates of how many people suffered from symptoms appropriate for flu. There are many flu-like illnesses that aren't flu, and there can be cases of flu that aren't of a strain that was predicted and vaccinated against for the current flu season. So for the COVID-19 vaccine, effectiveness is measured by how many got actual COVID-19 as revealed by specific COVID-19 tests, whereas for flu, it's how many got anything flu-like, whether it is actually from any influenza virus or not.

• there are many flu viruses, and different ones become the most problematic each flu season. Researchers estimate from historical patterns which ones are most likely to be a problem this year and formulate the vaccine to protect against those deemed of highest risk. Sometimes they miss, and different viruses actually turn out to be the problem.

• influenza viruses have a lot of antigenic drift, so its possible that the genetic match of a vaccine formulated against the right 'strain' could still be a miss, because the virus in the wild has changed enough that the vaccine is either ineffective or less effective than it might be with a better match.

The US influenza surveillance network is something I've noted in comments here before -- it is a great example of data-science, using very sparse data and getting maximum practical knowledge from it. But one of the problems of comparing flu and COVID-19 is that the 'quality' of data is very different between them.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm

#5.1 Douglas2 on 2020-12-04 11:55 (Reply)

Imagine some thugs break into your home while you are away and become squatters. The law, the courts the judges clearly see what happened but they chose not to follow justice and make it right but instead legally award the squatters your home. Because the squatters are incredibly arrogant and want to throw their success in everyone's face they have a big celebration to take the legal possession of your home and now they have the brass balls to invite you to attend and sit through a couple of hours of them high fiving the steal. And the Press will be there too to take closeup's of your face and reaction as the new "owners" shit on you in public.

Would you go?

I have done a 180 on this. I first thought of course Trump should attend the inauguration ceremony and and be magnanimous and be the better person. AND if Trump had been given fair treatment by the MSM and courts I would still believe he should go to the inauguration. BUT that is not what has happened. We all know the election was stolen in a massive series of frauds and outright criminal conspiracies. The MSM knows it and at first celebrated it and after Trump fought it the MSM did all they could to cover it up. The courts/judges threw out the constitution and embraced tyranny.

I think that instead of attending the inauguration Trump should hold his last rally and invite all voters whose votes were stolen to attend. “Never give up, never give up, never give up.”

#6 GoneWithTheWind on 2020-12-04 11:07 (Reply)

I would go one step further and say that Chief Justice Roberts and all SCOTUS justices should boycott the inauguration ceremony. Biden is the classic example of someone coming to the court with dirty hands asking the court to approve of what he did. If SCOTUS has any honor they should recuse themselves from this farce.

#6.1 Anon on 2020-12-04 12:59 (Reply)

re Mayors Fear Long-Lasting Effects Of COVID-19

They should have thought of that before they shut everything down for an illness that 99.9% of people outside of nursing homes survive.

I suspect there will be attempts made to enact huge tax increases on the little people to repair damaged budgets from this self-imposed disaster.

#7 feeblemind on 2020-12-04 11:24 (Reply)

“The late Professor Walter Williams was right about poverty“

Is there anything he was not right about? Doubtful.

#8 Jeff Brokaw (Link) on 2020-12-04 11:33 (Reply)

True enough. If you find yourself in disagreement with Walter Williams, you are, most likely, wrong.

#8.1 TheCaptain on 2020-12-04 17:25 (Reply)

Biden will not discard Trumps Phase 1 deal with China. Shocked, Shocked, I am! How many other Trump policies will also be Nevermind, It's OK. My opinion is China didn't give a hoot about the deal. But they are buying the heck out of our commodities because there is worldwide shortfalls in production. Price and availability drives every deal, trade agreements be damned. When somebody else has a better deal, they will cancel the existing orders.
Biden is waiting for China to "be fairer" before making change? If by that he means waiting for a Federal $15 minimum wage here, he's going to be waiting a long time for those jobs to come back.

#9 Jerry on 2020-12-04 12:02 (Reply)

"This Needs Answers": CCTV Video Of Georgia Poll Workers Sparks Election Fraud Outrage

Answers.

#10 Christopher B on 2020-12-04 12:17 (Reply)

Unfortunately that de-bunk has been de-bunked by video from earlier in the evening when those suitcases and only those suitcases were placed under the table and covered. The other ballot boxes were placed on the table.

I'll try to find a link.

Republican poll watchers dispute the SOS' version of events that they were just following people out the door. They affirm that they were told to leave because counting was done and would resume in the morning.

Quoting 1 side of the story, IMAO, does not constitute fact checking: more like water carrying, to be polite.

#10.1 Adriane on 2020-12-04 12:55 (Reply)

Don't be silly. There is nothing wrong with hiding ballots in unapproved containers and then only counting them after you send the poll watchers home with a lie.

I do have a simple question for all involved. Why not bring these half dozen poll workers to the hearing and ask them under oath about this? At the very least I would like to know who told them to hide the ballots and where did the ballots come from? Frankly I'm stumped why lawyers didn't think to do this. It seems elementary and logical why not ask them in person?

#10.1.1 Anon on 2020-12-04 13:23 (Reply)

I would encourage anyone with health issues or any reason to be more susceptible to harmful effects from Covid to take precautions. I have heard many talking heads declare that since blacks and other minorities have suffered more deaths than whites from Covid that they should get the vaccines first. Hmmm! So I have a stupid question: Should white people than be allowed to not wear masks and to open their businesses while we implement stricter mandates on POC? After all if these measures work why not apply them to the group who claim to be most affected by Covid?

#11 Anon on 2020-12-04 12:53 (Reply)

Anon - the theory is out there that a lot of the problem with those with more natural melanin have a problem with processing the sun's radiation to produce Vitamin D. The explanation I have been told is that their ancestors grew up closer to the equator and so were exposed to very fierce doses of radiation which produced Vitamin D quickly. The paler folk, from the northern climes, were under a weaker sun and so - genetically - had to be more efficient in producing Vitamin D. Transplant a darker-skinned person to the northern climes, and his/her body just isn't going to be able to process the sun's rays efficiently. There has been some suggestion that distribution of Vitamin D supplements all round will help.

Of course, poor eating habits, obesity,, and diabetes will do a number on anyone's life expectancy. Covid was the virus that ran the sythe through that group.

#11.1 Frances on 2020-12-04 22:06 (Reply)

I honestly don't think that is what causes their susceptibility to Covid. I think it is culture and lifestyle. Same is true for the Indians on reservations. They are more gregarious and more likely to hang out in groups and intermix with other groups. I don't think it is genetic or because of melanin or vitamin D or any of the other guesses. It boils down to their lifestyle which is kind of tribal clan in nature.

#11.1.1 Anon on 2020-12-04 22:53 (Reply)

Might I suggest that people not give Biden the dignity of being called "President." In the old days, someone claiming a throne without right was called a "pretender." So I would suggest that Biden be called "the Pretender" or "Pretender Biden," and Trump continue to be referred to as "the President" and "President Trump."

#12 Jim on 2020-12-04 13:35 (Reply)

Biden is promising a 100 day mask mandate because we all can see how well the previous mask mandates worked. This sad fact is what Biden and most of the left leaning politicians believe is fighting the corona virus.

#13 Saul on 2020-12-04 14:28 (Reply)

This is a very interesting COVID chart, showing (on the LH side) the mortality rates of COVID and (on the RH side) the aggregate mortality rates of *everything else*, with ascending age on the Y column. The two virtually mirror each other, don't they, with the exception of infants. What are we to make of that?

https://twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1334558096941789186/photo/1

We ran into one of my wife's clients today, he was out jogging. We started chatting about COVID-19. When we told him that we both have had it recently, you could see him backing up in his mind about 10 steps (contagion reaction) as he processed this, then he asked how bad the experience was. He disclosed he has co-morbidities. I do, too. But this guy is clearly keeping fit, more than I do, and we are about the same age. He is clearly fearful.

Given this graphic, is it unreasonable to conclude that the general public is reacting in unnecessary terror? By now we have all heard stories of healthy young people being turned into wasted vestiges of their former selves; of old people prematurely struck down; of families devastated. But these stories of individual suffering skew the overall picture of the actual effect on the population, driving people to irrational responses.

And then on the other hand, we have people perhaps over-rationalizing that the effects of the pandemic on the economy, on young children, etc. have been equally or even more destructive.

I think the risk management side to this pandemic has been horribly mis-managed, to the detriment of people who really need protections and to the severe detriment of society. Both have been served incompetently. Management of Risk is not a new science; it is not still being thought through. It is an established professional discipline with its own curriculum, methodolgies, management systems, credentialling. What the hell happened? The short answer: Politics did.

#14 Aggie on 2020-12-04 18:56 (Reply)

I don't disagree with what you are saying. But make no mistake Covid is killing people and will continue to kill people until we get a working vaccine taken by a majority of people. This isn't the yearly flu, this is a weaponized virus that got loose by mistake (I hope). It is possible that we could still be fighting this next year and the year after that too. It is possible that the vaccine will need to be constantly updated as the virus mutates. This could well be with us forever and causing inordinate number of deaths every year. Do not under estimate this virus. I would bet even money today that by next Summer we will be approaching a million dead in the U.S. and still climbing.

#14.1 Anon on 2020-12-04 19:47 (Reply)

How to best fight it, then? I contend, the decrees of politicians who exhort us to stay inside, breathe recirculated air, methodically kill the economy, and squander the development of our children - as we have seen even today, a year into the crisis - are recommendations that could have come directly from an enemy. They are medically irresponsible, as the medical experts have said.

How is it possible in this age that there are not tools for individuals to assess their particular risk, with output that provides recommended avoidances, procedures and behaviors? How is it possible that the only widespread information sets are so generic - "protect the old, protect co-morbitities" - as to be absurdly inadequate.

It is not acceptable. COVID-19 is still killing people or incapacitating them severely, and yes it will continue - and as the chart I cited shows - at about the same rate as any other human malady. It is a health problem, and our knowledge is increasing daily. But while there has been tremendous progress on the vaccine front, advances in treatment protocols, away from politics, the social handling of the disease has been mismanaged and in some cases, even mis-respresented for gains in political power. How many more politicians will we see making Rules for Little People even as they are breaking them in real time? Prediction: It will continue until they fear them.

#14.1.1 Aggie on 2020-12-04 21:07 (Reply)

How to fight it? Give the public good science based advice and allow them their constitutional freedom to make their own choices. I haven't gone.to a restaurant or visited friends and family since March 24th. I do this because of my age and health. If I were 18-50 I would just continue to act as if nothing was different. I typically take a couple of vacations a year where I fly, I don't intend to fly again until I feel it is safe. Others should be free to make their own choice on that.

As for school send the children to school but keep them away from grandma. As for the teachers; let them decide but don't pay them to stay home.

One last point. As voters and responsible citizens do not elect the little Eichmann's. If your politicians try to rule you vote them out or worse. If your police beat you up and arrest you for not wearing a mask outdoors get them fired. If some government department fines or punishes you for opening your business lobby to get them fired and/or get that department eliminated. Take them at their word when they act like they want to rule you and eliminate them.

#14.1.1.1 Anon on 2020-12-04 23:03 (Reply)

Van Morrison and Eric Clapton collaborate on a COVID song. Promptly banned from YouTube, of course.

Stand and Deliver

https://moonbattery.com/stand-and-deliver-the-song-youtube-doesnt-want-heard/

#14.1.1.1.1 Aggie on 2020-12-05 00:07 (Reply)

This virus is impossible to understand. I personally know two people who have died. Another, an athletic trainer who kept extremely fit, nearly died in the hospital and is now a "long hauler," with perhaps permanent breathing and fatigue problems. I know others who have tested positive who had virtually no symptoms except loss of taste and smell or a slight headache. Another person I know, who is grossly obese and has a long list of heart, breathing and other health conditions, came through it with nothing other than a slight cough and tiredness. I figured he would go immediately if he ever got it. This is not a normal virus.

#14.2 Jim on 2020-12-04 20:57 (Reply)

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Friday, December 4. 2020

Friday morning links