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Wednesday, April 15. 2020

TARGETED: Christian Baker Sued AGAIN, This Time Over Transgender Cake

"Pour encourager les autres"

Harvard to Hold Anti-Homeschooling Summit

Sheesh

“How Am I Violating Social Distancing When I Go Fishing, by Myself, on My Boat"

Chaos by the Bay - San Francisco responds to the coronavirus with an experiment in lawlessness.

Hedge Fund Managers Quietly Apply For Bailouts As Small Businesses

That's called hutzpah

BB: Trump Installs Ejection Seats Throughout Press Briefing Room

Zero New Coronavirus Cases In New York, NBC News Says

Wow

Reports: These Places Will Be Re-opened First Under Trump's Post-Wuhan Coronavirus Roadmap

Coronavirus, and the Media's Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

Press Corp Which Demanded Trump Has Authority To Close Everything Upset Trump Says He Has Power To Reopen Everything

In another 4 weeks of closure, the US economy will be destroyed for years, meaning lives and careers destroyed, despair, desperation

Fauci v. Fauci: How America’s infectious disease chief evolved his pandemic advice - Before he embraced social distancing, Fauci recommended cruises, and dismissed a ban on restaurants as ‘overkill,’ review of comments shows.

The experts were wrong, especially the British study that predicted that 2 million Americans could die :

A large swath of the "expert" community cloaked itself with unscientific certitude, beginning on March 16, with a model from the Imperial College London -- the source governments relied upon for the decision to ruin their economies -- which projected about 2.2 million Americans and half a million Brits would die.

Almost every national leader, politician and media outlet in the world believed that model. As I explained in my last column, modern men and women have substituted "experts" for prophets and priests. Science is the secular religion, and "experts" are its prophets and priests. In fact, they have greater authority among the secular, especially those left of center, than the pope of the Catholic Church has among Catholics. Whereas popes have invoked the doctrine of "infallibility" twice in the history of the Catholic Church, "experts" invoke it every day among the secular faithful.

Coronavirus case and death counts in U.S. ridiculously low

The Logic of the Lockdown

Is social distancing intended to slow the spread and develop herd immunity, as a month of “flatten the curve” messaging claimed, or is it actually intended to minimize total infections? The former implies that we are probably ready to loosen restrictions; the latter implies a far longer and more painful quarantine.

Adding to the confusion is our inability to answer a fundamental question — namely, how useful has the lockdown been in the first place?

Re the former, I believe the purpose is to reduce pressure on medical care, because there is no way to indefinitely avoid exposure, illness, death. This germ is out there forever and a vaccine is a year away. Re the latter question, we'll never know. The US is not Sweden.

Hinderaker: WE NEVER NEEDED TO FLATTEN THE CURVE

Time Approaches For Trump To Act To Open Economy, Even If Democrats Hope for Lengthy Recession

Graham: ‘This Effort to Destroy Trump No Matter the Cost of the Country Is Getting a Bit Old’ — ‘It’s Pissing a Lot of People Off’

‘Action Will Be Taken’: Georgia Democrats Vow Revenge On Lawmaker Who Endorsed Trump

WHO Official Says She Suspected Human-To-Human COVID-19 Transmission ‘Right From The Start’ — But The WHO Echoed Misleading Chinese Claims To The Contrary For Weeks

Nunes: More Criminal Referrals Against Dems Involved in the Russia Scam May Be Coming

AG Barr just signaled that things are about to get ugly for the Russia collusion team

Posted by Bird Dog in Hot News & Misc. Short Subjects at 05:14 | Comments (36) | Trackbacks (0)

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Lockdown Logic

I think your statement and this line in Jason Richwine's article
With widespread infection inevitable, the goal of the lockdown is to slow the spread enough to ensure that all critically ill patients have hospital beds. do a better job of the initial logic I heard used to justify lockdowns. There would be a reduction in overall with or by COVID deaths but only to the extent that our medical system didn't have to triage COVID and other patients due to resource shortages. That's a good justification for a widespread but temporary shutdown in the face of uncertainty to slow the spread while we gather data and build the resources necessary to deal with the disease. A lockdown seems to be the opposite of what you want to do to build herd immunity though, especially in this case, because you're keeping people from being exposed.

I noticed the same thing he did, that the justification for extreme social distancing/lockdowns moved quite quickly from 'slowing the spread' to 'preventing actual deaths'. I suppose that's partially because ".insert big scary number here. people will die" is an expedient way to motivate people if you generally don't trust them to do the right thing. That logic is going to complicate long-term social distancing policies because people are going to continue to die of COVID just like they die from seasonal influenza.

#1 Christopher B on 2020-04-15 07:22 (Reply)

FWIW one of the key elements of planning for mass casualty incidents is the strategy to stretch the medical assets until more can be brought online. I'm impressed by the response on the Federal side, in that respect, in that this element of their EOP is well thought out and adaptable. I'm also impressed that they ran it quickly and decisively. It was a welcome change from Katrina, in which the Federal efforts were hampered by the refusal of local and state officials to run their own EOPs, followed by going wobbly on authorizing the Federal efforts.

As to herd immunity, we may have more success in that respect than we expect. As the data develop, I'm beginning to get the sense that this virus has circulated a bit longer and a bit more widely than the experts currently believe. The nature of viruses is such that it can never really be about stopping them, but about minimising their ability to spread and do harm. Quarantines - no matter how reluctant many officials are to use the term - are most effective for the most vulnerable.

#1.1 Phil, Jr. on 2020-04-15 08:15 (Reply)

It's politically impossible to publically state that there is an optimal, non-zero spread rate of the virus. Every death that happens after you make that statement gets dropped at your feet as a result of your callousness, and not as a result of the natural progression of a disease organism. The talking point becomes "Grandma died because Trump didn't care."

#1.1.1 Another Guy named Dan on 2020-04-15 08:59 (Reply)

Phil, your comments are exactly correct.

#1.1.2 Anon on 2020-04-15 10:36 (Reply)

There is so much nonesense here.

Consider a perfect lockdown: Anyone who gets the disease will be infectious for about 2 weeks (allow 3 weeks for safety), At the end of that time you're either recoveredc (more likely) or dead, but in any case you're not spreading the disease. A perfect lockdown shoule eliminate the disease in UNDER 3 WEEKS.

But, of course the lockdown is not perfect. So it goes on and on not accomplishing anything other than destroying the country. The fact is that the virus is all over, some estimates suggest over 20 million people have had the infection. Against odds like that the current concept of lockdown is EFFFECTIVELY USELESS. It's like trying to patch a rusted pipe, the leaks greatly outnumber the successful patches.

It's time to get realistic. The country needs to get back to the business of being a country. Disease or none, the nation absolutely needs to get off its self absorbed butt.

#1.2 jay on 2020-04-16 20:25 (Reply)

Re: Democrat endorses Trump.
It appears that black Georgia Democrats want to stay on the plantation.

#2 oolioo on 2020-04-15 07:26 (Reply)

To be fair and accurate it is the black voters who are stuck on the Democrat plantation. The black, female and other "minorities" in the Democrat party are doing quite well with their race/gender/lgbqt baiting thank you very much.

The Democrats of today mirror exactly the socialist model of today. Just as the Venezuelan president Maduro has become a billionaire while the Venezuelians have become destitute the elite Democrats in America are doing the same thing. This is what socialism really is; convincing the hoi polloi that the ever more restrictive and repressive government is necessary to give them more free stuff when in reality the socialist elite are looting the country.

#2.1 OneGuy on 2020-04-15 10:43 (Reply)

Zero New Coronavirus Cases In New York, NBC News Says

Guess that means the Docs finally stopped counting all those FAKE, "died in a car accident while driving next to a Covid patient" deaths, eh?

Funny how our "medical experts" forgot the basic premise of statistics that "Correlation is NOT causation!"

#3 Old Codger on 2020-04-15 10:26 (Reply)

Wow, bold print, all-caps, sneering names, false exaggeration, and ironic quotation marks, all five. Clearly, you must be correct.

#3.1 Assistant Village Idiot on 2020-04-15 10:42 (Reply)

Well, he was writing about NBC news...

#3.1.1 Sam L. on 2020-04-15 11:38 (Reply)

So, what exactly was the daily total yesterday and the day before?
I’ve been watching the Cuomo updates on the TV the past few days; each day he reported the number of deaths in NYC ….
750 on Thurs,
760 on Fri,
770 on Sat,
650 on Sun..
yet he did not tell us the daily death number for Mon or Tues.

WHY NOT? DID IT GO DOWN TOO MUCH??
Why doesn't CBS tell us the daily number anymore?

#3.1.2 Nunnya Bidnez, jr on 2020-04-15 12:52 (Reply)

I would think the news here is “zero new cases in NYC” not the chosen writing style of the commenter.

#3.1.3 Jeff Brokaw (Link) on 2020-04-15 13:05 (Reply)

Zero new cases is not the same as no deaths on a particular day.

#3.1.3.1 Nunnya Bidnez, jr (Link) on 2020-04-15 14:19 (Reply)

As of this moment in NY City there are 10,656 new cases, 752 new deaths, and 11,586 total deaths.

#3.1.3.1.1 Anon on 2020-04-15 17:52 (Reply)

Jeff, I really wondered about taking the time to point out the weak logic of Old Codger's statements, but that hasn't worked before, so I tried a different approach.

nydotgov website has 11K new cases for the state on 4/14. I haven't seen a breakdown for NYC alone.

#3.1.3.2 Assistant Village Idiot on 2020-04-15 20:53 (Reply)

Glad hat all five caught your normally desiccated and delapited attention!

I believe you and I are the only posters here who truly reflect our nom de plumes!

#3.1.4 Old Codger on 2020-04-15 20:39 (Reply)

The irony is that yesterday was a record death count in the U.S. from the C-virus. The C-virus flat earthers are grasping at straws.

Closing in on 7000 deaths a day from this!! and still we get people who "I see nothing"!

We are lucky! Hard to say that with 26,334 deaths (right now) in the U.S. from this virus. But we were lucky that Trump and the governors required some common sense quarantine measure. They will be and should be lifted but make no mistake when that happens the death rate will go up. This virus isn't done with us yet.

#3.2 Anon on 2020-04-15 12:38 (Reply)

According to worldometers.info, yesterday there were 2407 deaths and this is the first time > 2000. The prior two days were much lower than the 5 days before.

So WTF are you talking about?

Also note that the acceleration in the trendline is flattening slightly, which you can see by viewing the logarithmic graph there. It is NOT accelerating any more, although obviously it could start to accelerate again. But now: no.

Stop spreading bullshit lies.

#3.2.1 Jeff Brokaw (Link) on 2020-04-15 12:51 (Reply)

That is correct, 2407 deaths yesterday in the U.S. a record total.
There were 6,982 deaths worldwide.

As of right now U.S. deaths are 28,394 which means the death toll has quadrupled since April 3rd.

But no worries, you say! It's all old and sick folks who were going to die anyway, you say! Most of those deaths were just people falling down stairs and not from Covid-19, you say!

#3.2.1.1 Anon on 2020-04-15 17:59 (Reply)

You avoided my counterpoints about nearly flattened logarithmic graph and slowing acceleration. That means the peak is not far off, and then decline.

Other than all that, great argument I guess. You new at this? You’re not very good at it.

#3.2.1.1.1 Jeff Brokaw (Link) on 2020-04-15 21:08 (Reply)

I didn't avoid it your claim was specious. As this virus progresses those who for their own reasons want to deny it come up with new ways to "prove" that it ain't so bad. They used the per capita ploy. Somehow 10,000 deaths in NY City is meaningless if we can just use the population of the entire nation to make the result seem smaller. Then they use the concept that since we don't know exactly how many are infected than it is likely that the death rate isn't so bad. And of course the famous "they aer all old and sick and were going to die anyway". My personal favorite by the way as it illustrates the total lack of concern for those who are sick and dying and illustrates your real agenda.
Now you decided that since the growth rate of the dead doesn't follow a logarithmic curve we must all be safe.

The problem is you are looking at the very beginning of this pandemic. A snapshot does not tell the whole story. Every big city in the U.S. WILL have BIG death rates. Their day is coming. Every small and medium size city will also have comparable death rates too. This virus kills 1% or maybe 0.8% of everyone who gets it and like almost every virus it will work it's way through the population until about 70% of the people will have gotten it. So when all is said and done this virus will kill millions worldwide and hundreds of thousands in the U.S.

Right now we are enjoying the benefits of the shutdown which has slowed the virus. Many people see that as a victory and a sign we have beaten it. We have not. We must open up the economy there is no other choice. The respite allowed us to better equip our hospitals and get emergency services up to speed. But do not be fooled, about 10-14 days after we open everything up the death rate will skyrocket.

But no worries; the flat earthers will come up with new reasons why this is no big deal and all we need to do is digg bigger holes to thrhw the bodies into.

#3.2.1.1.1.1 Anon on 2020-04-16 10:57 (Reply)

That’s a lot of words to say “ I have no argument”.

A flattening curve is a flattening curve.

Whatever. Bye.

#3.2.1.1.1.1.1 Jeff Brokaw (Link) on 2020-04-16 22:08 (Reply)

40% of California workers are working and we have fewer than 1,000 cases. In a state of 35 MILLION. Why not let another 20% go back to work and see what happens? Then another 20%? Let the air out of the balloon slowly.

But no.The shut in people are religious zealots ignoring facts, data numbers or compassion. They’ll happily sacrifice millions to poverty and hunger to “save lives” from a virus that kills .02% of young healthy workers.

All shut in fanatics should be personally targeted in the oncoming food riots, their house burned and looted, as the food supply chain collapses and the mass misery engulfs the population in the Great Depression they cheer on.

#3.2.1.1.2 whatever on 2020-04-16 01:32 (Reply)

Should read less than 1000 deaths in a state of 35 million. In three months since the first case was reported. In the most populous state. Far more will die in the state in the next three months from the “cure”

And hey, what happened to that supposed shortage of ventilators? Why are the hospital ships empty? All when 40% of workers are working? Shouldn’t hospitals still be full if this virus was as bad as they said if 40% of workers are still working? Shouldn’t there be a trend to 400k deaths in the nation from the million forecasted if 40% of critical workers are still leaving their home?

#3.2.1.1.2.1 Whatever on 2020-04-16 01:42 (Reply)

QUOTE:

Far more will die in the state in the next three months from the “cure”

This.

Is complete nonsense.

Many millions of people will be temporarily inconvenienced. Some will be financially hurt. A relative few will be bankrupted (mostly restaurateurs, probably).

But, unless the inconveniences of the shutdown cause a radical shift in the rate of suicide (and if this quarantine were going to produce a surge in suicides, we would already be starting to see it), then nothing about shelter-in-place is particularly fatal.

I'm not unsympathetic to the idea that restrictions should begin lifting soon. I might even agree that we maybe didn't need all of the restrictions in all of the places that imposed them.

But I am wholly fed up with the scare-tactics and panic-mongering among the anti-shutdown crowd. They are just as obnoxious – and even less believable – than the panic-merchants who predicted the total collapse of our hospitals.

#3.2.1.1.2.1.1 Thos. on 2020-04-16 11:03 (Reply)

Another day of you posting complete gibberish.

Killing yourself is the only way to be truly safe.

#3.2.2 jimg on 2020-04-15 17:29 (Reply)

Hinderaker piece: I have usually appreciated Mr. Hinderaker's perspective on politics and current issues. In this instance his opinion is about as stupid those arm-chair generals who loudly and vociferously contend that Trump acted too slowly. Based on best information and a wide range of expert opinions, the President acted quickly and effectively to manage not only the medical support issues but also the economy, supply chain immigration & travel and political perspectives. Pretty good high wire act. Proof: The media and Dems ineffective stuttering and sputtering. What do you want? The dogs bark and the caravan moves on.

#4 Snowgoose on 2020-04-15 10:48 (Reply)

An article at The Federalist poses an interesting question. What if Trump reopens the economy and people are still afraid to come out of their homes and do business?

The Economy Won’t Recover Until Americans’ Coronavirus Fears Fade

If this poll is accurate, it surprises me. I did not know Americans are so terrified by the virus. The media has done a great job spreading fear.

QUOTE:

Polling shows a surprising level of support for most of the actions taken to curb the virus, even at the expense of the nation’s economy. A Fox News poll taken last week showed that 80 percent of Americans support “a national stay-at-home order for everyone except essential workers.” That comes despite the fact that 50 percent of Americans said they, or someone in their household, had lost a job or had hours reduced because of the virus and related shutdowns.

Why do an overwhelming majority of Americans support such a drastic shutdown of the nation’s economy? The polling shows that, as of April 4-7, most Americans fear the virus:

A total of 94 percent are very or somewhat concerned about the spread of the virus in the United States;
More than three in four (76 percent) are very or somewhat concerned about catching the Wuhan virus;
Nearly four in five (79 percent) are very or somewhat concerned that they or someone in their family could die from the virus; and
Three-quarters (75 percent) believe the worst is yet to come regarding the pandemic.

The American people do worry about the virus’ potential to cause a recession (91 percent are very or somewhat concerned), and inflict economic hardship on their families (79 percent very or somewhat concerned). But the survey shows that, at least as of last week, they fear the virus more than they fear the economic consequences of the virus.

My wife says the author's fears are unfounded. She says people have cabin fever and can't wait to get out when the "all clear" has been sounded. She is one of the many terrified of the virus so I hope she is right and her thinking reflects the population at large.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/14/the-economy-wont-recover-until-americans-coronavirus-fears-fade/

#5 feeblemind on 2020-04-15 10:48 (Reply)

I was in Costco the other day (mask, gloves, etc) and my feeling is people will come out in droves.

Waiting in line, to enter a cavernous warehouse and still wind up standing or passing within inches of others...the 'shutdown' hasn't really changed anything. There were steps we could've taken and remained open, with only a limited amount more in the infection/death rates (which, if the shutdown works, we'll have ANYWAY...but that's another story).

Point I'm making is that people WANT to be out, and really don't mind being close to others. Which is why the shutdown was supposed to be so effective - to make them more careful/aware and reduce exposure(s).

There is always the subset - those who really, truly believe this is frightening and scary and they'll die. They will be slow to come out of the hermit shack. Me? It helps that I had it and therefore probably am now chock full of antibodies...but my wife and son, both living with me who did not get sick...have the same view. You live your life, you take your chances, you make the best of it.

Time to move on. Protect those at-risk. But it's time to get back to life.

#5.1 Bulldog on 2020-04-15 12:33 (Reply)

What is it doing TO the businesses themselves also? Say you're running with 50% staff but only allowing 25% of your normal customer flow. Has to be killing them even if they do have online presence, if the supply chain can't physically keep up.
What will be the shift in health and death rates around this. People putting on weight not getting out. A future rise in what that does to people. Normal crime & traffic deaths should be down. Still can't change world death rates much (whether there is 6, 7, or 8 billion people) just shifts it to different time periods.

#5.1.1 Jerry on 2020-04-15 14:43 (Reply)

Re: ... things are about to get ugly for the Russia collusion team

QUOTE:

This is what the Durham investigation could well conclude: A group of people aligned with or sympathetic to one political party conspired to illicitly use the authorities of the FBI to besmirch the opposing party’s presidential candidate — and that every effort should be made to indict those who can be charged as a result.

It's amazing to me that people seem to think we need yet ANOTHER report about the misdeeds of Comey & co. If Durham concludes people broke the law, then his job is to indict them not make "every effort... to indict those who can be charged..." and then try them and convince a jury to convict them. Further, he needs to follow and collect evidence to indict the highest ranking officials he can.

I for one would not be satisfied if Durham only indicted the likes of Comey, Brennan, et al.

#6 mudbug on 2020-04-15 11:04 (Reply)

Grand jury is a strong tool. ("Reports not so much.) The GJ subpoena begins with "You are COMMANDED TO APPEAR." Testimony is SECRET. Defense lawyers are foreclosed, and depended upon witnesses willing to cooperate with them. Subpoenas can compel testimony, AND the production of documents and things. (Significantly, the investigation of Mrs. Clinton eschewed the grand jury investigation.)
Barr has assured that Durham will render indictments, and dismissed the prospect of a report, by commenting that "He [Durham] can write one if he wants."
I expect from my experience and reading that there will be evidentiary discoveries that will astound the public.

#6.1 Richard Torre on 2020-04-15 16:01 (Reply)

Time Approaches For Trump To Act To Open Economy, Even If Democrats Hope for Lengthy Recession

Graham: ‘This Effort to Destroy Trump No Matter the Cost of the Country Is Getting a Bit Old’ — ‘It’s Pissing a Lot of People Off’

‘Action Will Be Taken’: Georgia Democrats Vow Revenge On Lawmaker Who Endorsed Trump

I distrust the Dems, totally.

#7 Sam L. on 2020-04-15 11:41 (Reply)

If someone dies with a credit card balance and they have left everything of value to another party (not spouse)--does that other party have to pay off the credit card?

#8 Another One on 2020-04-15 16:55 (Reply)

Credit card debt dies with the debtor. But that doesn't necessarily mean that the debt doesn't get paid. The estate is liable for the debt.

My understanding is that banks often write down unpaid debt when someone dies, but the means does exist for the bank to get payment from the estate. But only the estate. Relatives are NEVER obligated to pay.

I ain't a lawyer so check in your state if dealing with an unsettled estate debt.

#8.1 Earle on 2020-04-15 17:35 (Reply)

Thank you Earle!

#8.1.1 Another One on 2020-04-16 18:44 (Reply)

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Wednesday, April 15. 2020

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