We are a commune of inquiring, skeptical, politically centrist, capitalist, anglophile, traditionalist New England Yankee humans, humanoids, and animals with many interests beyond and above politics. Each of us has had a high-school education (or GED), but all had ADD so didn't pay attention very well, especially the dogs. Each one of us does "try my best to be just like I am," and none of us enjoys working for others, including for Maggie, from whom we receive neither a nickel nor a dime. Freedom from nags, cranks, government, do-gooders, control-freaks and idiots is all that we ask for.
Just hope you test positive. The more people who test positive, the better for the country. If elederly, overweight, or have other issues, if you test negative you might chose to remain in jail for a while.
Still, I think we'll be surprised by how many people have the covid antibodies already. If you even had a stuffy nose in the past 3 months, you might have the covid antibodies. If you don;t know what they are, read up on them.
The animal body has unbelievable abilities. What is an antibody? Read and learn some basic biology.
Still, I think we'll be surprised by how many people have the covid antibodies already. ...
This is what I've been wondering about for a while now. I'd be surprised if a large proportion of the population didn't have antibodies at this point. The recent tragic death of an infant from non-viral causes leaves me wondering all the more whether the exposed proportion of the population isn't a great deal larger than official sense of the outbreak seems to be.
The point being made is that during the largely uncontrolled early stage between mid January and late February, more people than estimated were exposed, but a smaller proportion of them than estimated developed symptoms severe enough to require any sort of medical intervention. That's good news in the sense that we could be further along in the process of developing herd immunity than has been estimated.
Again, the paradox is that to lessen the danger, more people have to be exposed. Social distancing is designed to slow that rate so the small fraction of those exposed who develop severe complication remains low enough as an overall number to be manageable by the health care system.
another guy named Dan
I was just having this conversation today while trout fishing. The guy 20' down from me was saying he had all the symptoms last year. I had all the symptoms after a trip to see family in Nevada two years ago. I was sicker than I have ever been, ever. Horrible. I chalked it up to eating something at McCarran without thinking to wash my hands first. I don't think this was what happened now. The "red eye," economical as it is, does not attract a lot of health conscious types to say the very least, and being coughed on in a very small place is the norm.
I don't think that there will be a surprising number of people who have unknowingly had the virus. If so we would have seen tons of mysterious deaths during Christmas and New Year and then into February but there was nothing out of the ordinary. We are seeing the deaths now due to the disease spreading in March. In my part of the world most of the cases are directly linked to the original transmissions from Italy, Iran and of course Chinese on the cruise ships.
What I'm seeing in the differences between the reported data and the models is consistent with having underestimated the number of index cases at time zero of their runs, which then caused an overestimation of either the spread rate or the proportion of cases that become severely symptomatic. That is, if your model assumes you went from 10 cases to 10,000 cases in a week, your going to get a much different projection than if you assume you went from 1000 to 10,000 cases in the same time period.
Similarly, I think they may have modeled the proportion of cases that would lead to severe symptoms based on Cruise ship and nursing home data, where people in high risk categories are greatly overrepresented.
Another Guy named Dan
The only way it makes no sense that large numbers of people exposed early had few or no symptoms and people exposed later had a serious or fatal outcome is if the virus mutated along the way. I'm not sure how quickly that testing will be done since precautions need to be maintained while it's done to avoid creating more mass breakouts among still negative people.