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Friday, April 3. 2020
Yes, it is stressing hospitals in hot spots, but compared to what? As Bulldog suggested yesterday, this virus is partly a political and media event - not entirely medical as with the past nasty viral epidemics.
From an epidemic expert, The Severity of the CoVID-19 Epidemic is Not as Bad as You Think, According to the Numbers.
As with any viral illness, it's best to protect the frail and elderly. Best, but rarely possible. Numbers are cold things, death is not, but some perspective on the big picture is good.
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Were looking at 1957 and 1968 with the advantage of hindsight and with a more realistic sense of the numbers involved. That cannot be said of covid-19, we are trying to fly between the mountains in the fog with unreliable instruments. When it comes to comparing the statistics between countries, the only constant is inconsistency. It doesnt appear that they are all using the same measuring stick. GIGO. At the end of the day, I suspect covid deaths in Europe will have been under reported. FWIW, i dont think this is anywhere close to 1918 or the seasonal flu; there is a lot of territory in between. On the spectrum, I'm leaning toward 4-6 times worse than seasonal flu. Bad, yes, but I'm way more scared of the unemployment number.
That article is dated March 24th which, these days, is ancient history.
Well you can find any number of experts that will support what you believe on both sides of any debate. Here is an expert on the other side.
MICHAEL OSTERHOLM, PH.D, MPH
Dr. Osterholm is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota. He is also a member of the National Academy of Medicine (NAM) and the Council of Foreign Relations. In June 2005 Dr. Osterholm was appointed by Michael Leavitt, Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), to the newly established National Science Advisory Board on Biosecurity. In July 2008, he was named to the University of Minnesota Academic Health Center’s Academy of Excellence in Health Research. In October 2008, he was appointed to the World Economic Forum Working Group on Pandemics. [unm.edu]
Dr. Osterholm is the author of Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Killer Germs,
In an interview with Peter Attia:
What is Mike’s estimate of the actual CFR?
Some people hope the CFR is as low as 0.1-0.5%
Mike says that’s a pipe dream
Mike thinks it’s likely to be in the 1.0-2.5% range
–Why so high?
US has a large population over 65
And we have a lot of obesity in young people
Michael is pessimistic about the fact that we really just don’t have an “easy way out”
We can’t stay in lock down for while we wait for a vaccine and destroy the economy
But we also can’t just do nothing which would bring down the healthcare system
“How do we find a way to have those people who are at lowest risk of having serious disease. ..be in our workforce, be more public, and handle the issues? So if we can do that, that’s good news.”
A second wave?
Until there’s a vaccine, it’s hard to see how this virus doesn’t hit a majority of the US population (60-70%) because once we come out of sheltering it might spread again (like people speculate is happening in China)
300 million people
60% infection = 180 mil people get COVID-19
20% of those need hospitalization = 36 mil in hospital
1.5% of infect end up dying = 2.7 mil deaths
Sorry forgot the link...
Here is the canard: There are more people infected then we know so therefore the death rate is not as bad as we think so sit down shut up and listen to your superiors.
OK, we don't know the infection numbers and therefore don't know that crucial rate of death. But we won't know until it's over just like every other new disease that ever happened. So why than do they put this canard out there??? Because that's all they got. "Look away from the deaths that have already happened, look away from the fact that the number of deaths in the U.S. doubled in three days, look over here, something shiny." Why do they want to steer you away from what's actually happening? I would like to think that they truly are ignorant of the disease and at the same time terribly worried about the shut down on our economy and how it will effect us all. But they seem impervious to facts, they just brush them off.
Another canard often used to allay your fears is; "This only affects old people and those with preexisting conditions who are gonna die anyway. REALLY!! How did we ever get here? What's next, euthanasia of old people with preexisting conditions?
Another canard that is catching on with those who are really low IQ is; "Most of these deaths aren't directly from Covid-19, a lot of them are from pneumonia..." My god! What level of stupidity is this?
Please! Mark this on your calendar. Write down 6927 deaths as of right this minute from Covid-19. Check it again in three days and compare it with today's number. Do the same in 6-7 days and again in two weeks. If you can still comfortably say that this is no big deal than "bless your heart".
Yes I am very concerned about the shutdown. Maybe the right thing to do is begin to let some people go back to work. I get that we don't want to make everything worse. But understand that no matter what we do including that elusive 'right thing' in retrospect and under the scrutiny of politics it will have been the wrong thing. If Trump and his administration takes every measure to reduce the rate of infection and assure that hospitals are not overwhelmed there will still be 100's of thousands of deaths by September. Barring a cure that is what the math is telling us. Looking at a snapshot in time isn't enough to understand what is happening. This virus may in fact be a genuine weaponized virus designed to attach itself to lung tissue and by god that is what it is going to do and a lot of people are going to die from it.
"there will still be 100's of thousands of deaths by September. "
Once again, you're running your mouth without any proof of your so-called facts.
Really. You need to take a few days off.
Your probably right. Oh look! 1320 deaths today from Covid-19. I'm sure it's nothing
I just saw a picture of 11 refrigerator trailers outside Bellevue Hospital. This doesn't sound "normal" to me. I don't know how many hospitals NY City has but 11 outside one hospital seems to be a really bad indicator. Are there 11 outside every hospital? How many bodies does on refrigerated trailer hold? 50? 100?
Sometime this morning the death toll doubled. No worries I'm sure it's no worse than the flu.
Today the death toll in the U.S. doubled again. It is now 28,443 deaths in the U.S. from Covid-19
Today the death toll is six times what it was on 3 April. I'm sure it's nothing, don't worry.
Today the death toll in the U.S. is 8 times what it was on April 3rd. That means the deaths have doubled three times in 23 days. Still think it is just the flu?
This analysis falls apart when applied to NY City and, yes, it is out of date/doesn't reflect current numbers.
Applying to NYC, currently 57,159 cases out of 8.4 million. 1 in 147 people infected. 0.2% CFR = 114, 0.5% CFR = 286. Deaths reported? 1,562.
With 1,562 dead, 0.2% CFR means 781K actually infected, or 1 in 11. 0.5% CFR means 312K actually infected or 1 in 27. Either 1 in 11 or 1 in 27 is indicative of epidemic that will eventually infect everyone meaning total deaths in NYC between 17K (0.2% CFR) and 42K (0.5% CFR).
So for NYC, the picture looks pretty bleak, but we can just eff them right because we don't live in NYC...
After watching a local news report from NYC I'm willing to bet the still jam packed NYC subway system is now a major factor in the spread of the virus.
It seems to me that our most vulnerable are the ones at risk.
That's the ill and the elderly.
They should be protected all the time, regardless of what is currently going around.
Here in Maine those who have died are almost all (except 1 person) 80+ and living in group homes for the elderly. If we are careful we can spare all of them.
How does the virus enter a nursing home?